Season 44 NL South Preview

Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners
jgsolari3
SEA 43:  100-62

Good: 2 excellent seasons to start jgsolari's Hobbs career.  #2 in runs thanks to 620 walks and a respectable 209 HR's.  I love the cheap contracts to old guys who can still get on base (Carlos Polonia had his best year in the last 5 at age 37).  The staff was #2 last year and it's still good, but...

Bad:  Lost Paul Kinney in free agency.  The replacement, Yasmani Costilla, is pretty good and cheaper, but isn't Kinney's caliber.

Ugly: or at least odd:  they have a bunch of pitchers with both DUR and STA in the 40's (Alfredo Powell, William Lui, Dummy Simpson, Gavin Woods - who are all pretty good), who will be used a lot but I'm not sure how.  They could start games and go 40 pitches, they could be inning 4 to inning 6 guys, they could close, I dunno.  Given that there are only 4 true SP types on the ML roster I wonder if there are 1400 innings in this staff - we'll see.

Predicted Record: still a good team but a little falloff without Kinney.  95-67

San Juan Padres
bobbyj7
SEA 43: 85-77

Good: improved for 2nd straight season to the cusp of the playoffs.  The big improvement was pitching, which went from a 4.54 ERA in SEA 42 to 3.98 last year (with mostly the same cast of characters.  The offense hits home runs well (238 last year, #2 in NL) and could get a few more into the lineup if they promote SEA 41 #151 overall Dave Nathan.  I remember thinking that was a great spot to get the best power prospect of that draft.  He could use a 4th year in the minors to add whatever he can to contact and splits, but he'd hit more a few bombs for the ML team if they decide to promote him. 

Bad: Losing Louie Almonte in FA and not really coming up with a replacement.  Omar Elcano actually surpassed Almonte's production last year (playing a hideous SS with 37 errors and bad plays).  If they're not going to have both those bats in the lineup you might as well move Elcano to 3B and get GG defense there, and go find a cheap, slick-fielding SS.

Ugly: in the sense of huge uncertainty.  Which San Juan pitching staff will show up, SEA 42's or SEA 43's.  Is Jimmy Miller more a 3.30-ERA guy (SEA 43) or more a 4.56-ERA guy (SEA 42) in that ballpark? Best guess is in between. 

Predicted Record: I have a feeling the Nathan kid will get promoted early and do big things, so I like the offense to improve.  But I doubt the staff can replicate SEA 43.  So a little dropoff: 81-81

Houston Colt .45s
pimpbotlove

SEA 43:   71-91

The Good:  banked a few wins against the future mwr uptick last year while still in all-out rebuild.  They've promoted some recent draft picks so it's a cheap roster at $30MM.  The 2 with the best chance to stick long-term are Fred Buckel (Season 40's #14 overall; nice switch-hitter with plus defense at 2B) and Dallas Mann (SEA 40's #23 overall; hard-throwing sinkerballer who's a solid #3 starter).  And there are more prospects up and down the system; 2 to watch are SP Diego Alomar, a SEA 40 IFA (by Jacksonville) who will probably get the call at Game 20; and Danry Montero, an intriguing power + defense IF or CF prospect who was a $19MM IFA last year.

The Bad: the usual rebuilding stuff, no need to dwell on it.  These guys are going to contend long before OKC does.

The Ugly:  nothing in particular.  pimpbotlove took over a rebuild that already had some prospects and has added more; no that pipeline is starting to produce.

Predicted Record: 75-87; I think Alomar's promotion will mark the point where this franchise's fortunes started turning up.

Oklahoma City Apocalypse 
blanch13
SEA 43:  59-103

Good: Not much.  In their 3rd season with the new nincompoop owner they finally got some kind of rebuild started with the signing of IFA Peaches Eierman, who looks to be a special hitter.  They also splurged a bit more in the FA bargain bin, signing guys like Addison Oropesa and Jenrry Zumaya in anticipation of the escalating mwr.

Bad: Pretty much the whole effort so far.  They've sold out to get good draft picks and not found much with #1 and #6 picks, and for that they're winning 60 games a year?  Blek.  I absolutely believe that rebuilding should be painful, and I'm here to tell you it is.

Ugly:  No other way to say it, this owner is incompetent when it comes to rebuilding.  First he bails on an AL team that realistically had years of contention left in it, then starts rebuilding for 2 years before jumping to a way worse NL situation, then totally balls that up for 2 seasons.  If he wasn't half-decent as a commish we should vote him out.

Predicted Record: 70-92