Ist-Round Draft Review, Picks 1-10

OK, here are your top 10 draftees.  Most of the projections here are mine, with 14/14 scouting.  The only 1 of these whose projections are based on my ADV of 6 is #8 McGee.  Where I note another author or helper, the projections mentioned could be from higher or lower levels. Enjoy.
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#1 to Toledo - Donald Ritz, RF or 1B:  Projects to be a high-OBP performer with occasional BA gusts into the 300's.  20-25 HR's a year with a few stolen bases thrown in.  Will eventually have enough durability that he can just about be a set-and-forget part of the lineup.  Position is the only real question, as my COL scouting of 14 projected a GLOVE of only 41.  Given that he's starting at 36 he could well exceed that.  Likely to develop a superior RF arm, so my guess is he'll be a pretty decent RF - big win versus just having a lunkhead 1B.  Late note:  just saw his current ratings - this guy could hold his own in the Majors now, so the odds he hits optimistic projections went way up.  Improved from GRADE: Stand-Up Double to GRADE: Sliding Triple.  It's almost impossible to over-achieve with the #1 pick - the variance is all on the downside.  So the question with the #1 pick is, "Did they screw it up?" and the answer here is emphatically no.

#2 to Philadelphia - Tony Martin, RF:  Will have 50 HR power, which is a good thing with his speed. The joke around Salem, MO’s Bourbon High School is that takes a dinger to get him to first base. Because God has a sense of humor, he also has world class base-running. I think this means that he knows what he can’t do. Tony also has plus contact and no real weakness at the plate except speed. He should be a sure thing with excellent health/durability/makeup. His one area of concern is defense. If he hits or comes near his projects he should be fine in RF. If he does not he may just ended up be 1B with plus defense and an over qualified arm (thanks to top for the report).  GRADE: Stand-Up Double...Philly was supposed to come away with one of the top talents here and they did.

#3 to Scottsdale - Jerome Mathis, SP:  First controversial pick.  I moved him down to #16 on my board based on a vR projection of only 58, although my scouts also projected A+ ratings for control and vL, and pretty good #1 and #2 pitches.  But at age 22, with starting splits of 57 and 48, uh-oh.  Those wouldn't be encouraging starting splits for a high-schooler.  Add in the obvious conclusion that his control and vL won't get near the lofty level predicted by my increasingly-worried-for-their-jobs scouts, and we have our first not-reaching base grade.  GRADE: One-Hopper Back To The Pitcher.


#4 to Jacksonville - B.C. Querecuto, P:  I had him #1 on my board based on decent-not-great HS scouting, but now that I see his currents I have to admit I'm a little disappointed.  My scouts were projecting both splits to get up to 90, but now it looks like about 85vL and 74 vR - not bad but not the elite level my scouts were squirting their pants over.  Disappointing starting level for his pitches, too.  Let's hope he's one of those rare HS prospects who jumps 12 points across the board in his second season and another 10 in his 3rd.  GRADE: Solid Single but given what I see of Ainsworth's currents and Tartamella's projections JAX could have done better here.

#5 to Las Vegas - Damon Ainsworth, 2B:   Currents: He is 22, so his currents should be a pretty good indicator of what he'll be.  They suggest an excellent all-round hitter with very good power for a MI.  His glove is going to have to improve a lot, but it could; we'll see what the projections say about that. 
Top-end speed, great health, and better-than-average DUR are all great bonuses.  If his Range/Glove look like they can get to 75/75, making him a credible 2B defender, this will be our first HOME RUN selection.  Projections:  Probably the best all-round hitter in this class; very good contact skills, top eye, excellent splits.  Not the power hitter that Martin or Nathan will be, but could hit 30-35 a year easily.  Defense should be OK for a 2B but won't win any GG's.  Still, a 2B who will hit like this guy will go to a lot of All-Star Games and be on a few MVP ballots.  (thanks to weeback for help with the porjections)  GRADE:  Home Run


#6 to Kansas City - Frank Panik, SS: Defensive wizard with a pretty good bat.  Superior range and laser-beam arm accuracy plus good glove and arm strength; will be a GG candidate at CF, 2B or 3B.  As a hitter he'll have + power for a CF/IF and will handle lefties better than righties.  Only average as a contact/on-base guy, but acceptable for such a good and versatile defender.  Not going to dazzle anyone on the basepaths.  Durability, health and makeup all project as very high - always nice bonuses to get. (Thanks to dakar for this report).  GRADE:  Broken-Bat Single, given that Tartamella was available and their scouts had him at #1.

#7 to Wichita - Don Tartamella, SP:  Based on Projections, he looks like the classic ace of a staff, although I don't think he's going to finish a lot of games.  He may top the world in strikeouts a few times, though.  Excellent control, very good splits and a 4-deep assortment of good pitches.  A lot has to go right, but 20 seasons or so from now we could be debating his HOF credentials.  Currents: We're not going to see these for awhile but I bet he'll sign.  GRADE: Tape-Measure Home Run, based solely on projections and him slipping to #7.

#8 to Pittsburgh - William McGee, CF:  (based only on currents and my very low ADV, so grains of salt needed).  All-or-nothing hitter...the Mickey Tettleton or Adam Dunn of CF's (without the high walk totals).  Low-200's batting averages.  Some decent walk totals but his OBP is going to be tough to live with.  He's got some thunder in the bat , though - he's starting with a higher power rating than either Martin or Nathan, likely the best power prospects this year.  He's going to be a rangy CF - currents and projections both suggest it.  I don't know if his glove will be good enough to make him an elite defensive CF, although it's starting pretty high at 70.  At this point in the draft a pretty nice get.  GRADE: Ringing Double OFF the RCF Wall.

#9 to Chicago - Eric White, 2B:  similar as a hitter to the player picked right before him, McGee, only better.  Better contact, splits and eye, and at 19 his power is already 88 (gotta love it when any current rating, and especially power, pops up much higher than you could've hoped for).  And a switch-hitter to boot.  I think his other ratings are going to be good enough for him to have some monster seasons in Wrigley - think something like .270/62 HR's, .350 OBP.  They're also low enough to produce some disappointing .230/40 HR/.300 OBP seasons.  Starting at 49 will his glove be good enough to play 2B?  With power like his you could justify keeping him at 2B with a Glove of 65, I guess.  But you could also flip the logic and make him a GG LF and go find a defensive 2B and maybe be better off.  Because he's so much like McGee before him (better hitter, not as good on D), he gets a similar grade.  GRADE:  Ringing Double OFF the LCF Wall.

#10 to Salem - Byron Huff, RP:  One of the 2 RP's (Benny Lira was the other) I was hoping would slip to me at 17 (neither did, as this world has gotten to the point that even relatively low-volume RP's aren't bargains anymore).  My scouts projected near-off-the-charts ratings across the board, and once again were exceedingly optimistic.  For me he's the SR version of #4 Querecuto - if he has normal development he could be something like a CON/vR/vL of 80/74/78 with P1 and P2 of maybe 83/68.  Not bad at all but not what the scouts were selling.  GRADE: Hard Grounder Through For A Single, but this is the point of the draft where you hope for a real steal.

Week 4 Power rankings

Its a little sloppier than I'd like because I am trying to include too much.  O rank is runs scored and D rank is runs allowed.  These are actual numbers, not projected numbers.  Wins is wins since I last ran the Power Ranking.

	Teams	Wins	Score	Actual O Rank		Actual D Rank
1	Jacksonville	9	1	11.5	2	First in wins and run differential and their offense is slightly performing
2	Pawtucket	9	2.4	13	6	Second in wins, 4th in differential.  Their pitching staff has exceeded expectations
3	Columbus	5	4.35	11.5	8	Third in NL East, third in the power ranking.
4	Milwaukee	7	5.85	7	11	Solid team that has done exactly as my spreadsheet predicts.
5	Honolulu	4	6.375	21	4	Bizzaro Milwaukee.  I expected them to hit and their pitching to be so-so.  I had it backwards
6	San Francisco	6	8.25	20	1	First in runs allowed and 2nd in differential
7	Colorado	7	9.825	1	27	Ballpark effects are real!  First in runs scored!
8	Oakland	4	9.95	19	13	Had a down week after overperforming in all areas previous to this power ranking
9	Pittsburgh	5	10.58	5	19.5	Continues to hit better than I ever imagined.
10	Montreal	6	11.18	8	19.5	They finally appear to be playing up their ability.
11	Boston	8	11.38	2	29	2nd runs, 29 in preventing them.
12	San Juan	7	11.95	15.5	16	I still like their roster and they playing better lately.
13	Richmond	8	13.7	4	21.5	I don't understand how they score so many runs.
14	Salem	7	13.83	25	10	Good pitching is helping them win the coin flip games.
15	Tacoma	5	14.25	29	5	Bizzaro Colorado!  -4 ballpark effects are hurting them more than helping them.
16	Baltimore	8	14.28	24	7	Their run differential is 10th in Hobbs and they are the bad NL East team.  What a division.
17	Las Vegas	4	14.65	9.5	14.5	Weeback is, and always has been, a terrific manager.
18	Los Angeles	1	16.38	17.5	12	The worst week in Hobbs.
19	Texas	8	16.58	22	18	I know Texas is a tough place to pitch, but I expected so much better from them.
20	Kansas City	6	18.3	14	17	Playing well despite marginal talent.
21	Hartford	6	19.38	3	31	Love, love, love their hitting.
22	Philadelphia	7	20.23	23	14.5	Sometimes I don't have anything interesting to say.
23	Florida	7	20.98	15.5	23	There are a terrific players on this struggling team.  They would command major prospects if they rebuild.
24	Chicago	3	22.13	6	26	Their poor record hits a pretty formidable offense.
25	Cincinnati	8	23.7	27.5	25	17th in wins despite being 27th in runs and 25th in preventing them.
26	Scottsdale	6	23.93	27.5	30	Their pitching has really struggled.
27	Montgomery	8	24.3	17.5	21.5	Believe it or not, 23 wins is actualy a nice accomplishment considering.
28	Toledo	7	26.43	26	28	Should be able score more runs, but do not.
29	New Orleans	5	27.15	9.5	32	Same as Chicago
30	Oklahoma City	5	27.18	31	9	Their record is dropping each week.  They'd be lower, but they banked some wins.
31	Wichita	4	27.45	32	3	If they are not the worst team in Hobbs. . .
32	New York	2	28.93	30	24	New York is

Informal Poll Results

A few weeks back I asked a couple of questions on tc:  1.  What's the one thing you like most about Hobbs?  2.  What's the thing about Hobbs you'd most like to change?

We got 13 responses, which is enough to indicate something I guess.  Full responses are repeated below, but here's the summary:

Positives that got multiple answers were the overall activeness and competitiveness of the world, the blog and the fast starts after rollover.  Most respondents didn't have anything they wanted to change; 1 owner offered changes to HBD rather than Hobbs, and 1 wanted to change his team's performance.  If I recall correctly there were only 2 suggestions for changes to Hobbs that we could enact: a cap on Fielding Coach and/or IFA offers, and a suggestion to do away with the MWR.  

Thanks for the comments, all, here are the individual replies

"I love how active this world is. Don't have any down side. Frankly, I don't really do a lot of the social aspect of the game, but appreciate that it keeps people involved."

"It's early still but membership is very active and lots of chat/blog work which drives interest for me at least. I didn't post what to change, too early I think for me to be critical of anything if at all."

"I like that we roll quickly and the world is managed well."

"#1 - Rollover is quick, well run and organized world with solid owners #2 - My team's performance "

"Blog content/ league friendliness and I've been here a short time nothing I would change so far "

"I loved the previews very much. Great job and as a new owner I appreciated the work you put in to complete it. Well done. Too new to Hobbs to request any changes."

"The blog has been fantastic. I can't think of anything I'd change. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. "

"The thing I like most is the quick turnaround to the next season because of the recruiting you guys do to fill quickly. Other things I like are good owners who love baseball, who like to deal, and every team is very competitive on every level.
So I know that is more than 1 thing but since when do I get the chance to say my opinion like this. So the what I would change is more about improvements to the game than the world to be honest. I would like to see the draft become better as far the quality of talent. I mean after 10 players in the 1st round every other player is a dumpster fire of talent for playing baseball. So getting more than 1 or 2 players that could reach AAA is a miracle. Now I am just venting about my drafting frustrations. I also like the resurrection of the blog."

"1a: Salary cap; 1b: League chat/camaraderie; 2: Nothing"

"The competitiveness, most of us know this game and how to build a franchise. Heard someone whiffed on a fielding instructor with a 5 mill+ offer this offseason. You need 30 mil+ to play the international market. This roster didn't have any AAAA players to allow me to be competitive in that arena, and hit the MWR when I came aboard. Just throwing ideas out there, maybe a cap on FI or international offer. "

"1. Blog kicks ***, great owners, very active people like you here 2. Get rid of MWR at the ML level "

"I took some time to think about it. I'd say it's the activeness and competitiveness with quality owners. Which might be three things.  "

"1. quick drama-less rollover 2. honestly, nothing. love it here "

The Math Behind the Power Rankings

I thought it might be interesting to see the math that goes into the power rankings.  As the season goes along the roster score loses value and the actual win total gains value.  The expected win percentage as found in your advanced standings tab stays the same.  I ran rankings again this morning and they came out as below.  Currently the roster is 37.5%, the wins total is 42.5%, and the expected winning percentage is 20%.  By this point in the season the percentages will change by about 2.5% a week (i.e. when I run them again on Saturday it will be 35%/45%). Anyway, I hope you find what is below interesting.  A couple of fun ones to look at are Oakland and OKC.  In the case of Oakland, the roster ranking predicts their run differential quite well, but somehow they are killing it record wise.  In the OKC case, their two most recent trades have radically reduced their roster score, but by then they had already banked wins so their overall score is a bit deceiving. 

Team	Score	roster	wins	Expected
Jacksonville	2.625	2	3	3
Columbus	2.925	5	2	1
Honolulu	4.525	6	3	5
Pawtucket	4.725	1	6	9
Oakland	7.9	13	1	13
San Francisco	8.725	12	9	2
Pittsburgh	9.2	14	6	7
Colorado	9.675	8	11	10
Tacoma	12	7	15	15
Milwaukee	12.15	19	9	6
Richmond	12.2	21	5	11
Boston	12.25	9	11	21
Montreal	12.375	3	18	18
Los Angeles	12.4	22	6	8
Las Vegas	13.625	24	9	4
Salem	13.875	16	11	16
San Juan	15.075	4	23	19
Chicago	16.275	20	15	12
Baltimore	16.825	17	18	14
Kansas City	17.825	26	11	17
Hartford	18.4	18	18	20
Texas	19.975	10	25	28
Florida	20.6	11	27	25
Philadelphia	21.85	29	15	23
Scottsdale	23.5	15	27	32
Oklahoma City	24.075	31	18	24
Wichita	24.85	32	18	26
Montgomery	25.95	28	26	22
Cincinnati	26.825	30	23	29
New Orleans	27.05	25	27	31
Toledo	27.6	23	31	29
New York	28.275	27	30	27

Unusual Christmas Day

Merry Christmas, HBDers, hope everyone's having a great Holiday.  I had a pretty unusual one, tromping around the ruins of Tikal, one of the largest archaeological sites of the Maya and perhaps their most influential city from 200-900 AD.  It's located in northern Guatemala and was discovered in the "modern" era in 1848.  Mapping, excavation and renovation was started in the 1950's by the University of Pennsylvania and continues today.  There's absolutely nothing about the site associated with baseball, but there are quite a few places where they played the Mesoamerican ballgame (although I don't think the version played in Tikal involved the human sacrifice of the losers - I believe that was more a thing with the Aztec version up in central Mexico).  Anyway, hope you enjoy this diversion from  our little hobby.

Jaguar Temple in Grand Plaza (completed about 745 AD)

Temple V (completed about 700 AD)

The Not-So-Fake ID’s

Having done OKC yesterday I will now do my own team.  I walked into this season with what I thought was a top 3 if not top 1 farm system.  It had taken too long to build, but it had 4 elite talents (P Diego Alomar, CF Lorenzo Rosario, SP Tony Arias, and 3B/RF Yao-Lin Chen in that order). The ML team was decent, though not ready yet to win a title.  However, last season I thought it was .500 team and I nearly missed the MWR.  Sometimes you are just wrong about your team.   So rather waiting 1 more season to fully engage as planned, I went full speed ahead this, knowing I would not have to worry about the MWR if I did. 



Trades

The Jacksonville Fake ID’s send Diego Alomar to the Wichita Plainsmen for Omar DeLeon, Tony Votto, and Andres Morlan



I kind of hate myself for making this one. Picking up an elite bat was on my shopping list (the ID’s were 28^th in runs last season) when I heard from Wichita asking me if Alomar was available at any price.  Alomar was my #1 prospect and perhaps the top pitching prospect in Hobbs.  Only 19, he already has ML stuff and projects to be #1 starter.  Further, assuming he avoids injury he will only get more valuable as he gets older.  One does not win WS by making a practice of trading away young #1 starters. 

After light negotiation the Fake ID’s settle on extracting Omar DeLeon as the key piece in the deal.  DeLeon is a 24 year old, 2-time all-star who not only has 40/40 potential, but did it as a 22-year old.  One set of projections has him as the 9^th best bat in Hobbs.  The 25-year old Morlan is strong set up and a good age and price.  Nothing amazing, but above average.  Finally, the 21-year old Votto is fringe ML quality now and will likely be almost, though not quite as good as Morlan.  On balance it was not enough a rare find like Alomar, but it was a lot.  The package fit my timeline and filled my biggest holes, so I took it. 

The Jacksonville Fake ID’s send Junior Burawa and Yao-Lin Chen to the New York Lincoln Giants for Lou Crawford

Having already committed myself to going for it this season, this deal was much easier to make.  Crawford is a power/speed 2B/3B with elite defense any where but SS.  For the Fake ID’s it allowed us to move last year’s 2B to the OF where he’s a better fit and add another multiWAR bat.  Paired with DeLeon and former overall #1 pick Tanner Mlicki, the move gives the Fake ID’s 3 elite power/speed bats all 24 and all under years of team control.

This is not to say that the Giants didn’t get a lot back.  Burawa is ML ready SS with enough glove and enough bat.  While he is not elite in either category, he’s a no compromise player at the toughest position to fill.  Chen is a ML ready player who is either an elite defender in RF or a below average defensive 3B.  His he has a nice bat and eats up left handers.  While still improving, he could be a .270 35 HR guy now.  As neither guy has any service time, they will be valuable pieces both as cheap, contributing starters for New York or as chips in a later trade. 



The Jacksonville Fake ID’s send Larry Powell to the New Orleans Voodoo for Reed Gagnon



For the Fake ID’s this cleared up 1.2 mil.  For the Voodoo they pick up their starting 1B for a guy that was never going to see the ML.



For notes on the Kohn and Martin trades see yesterday’s posts.  However, the long and the short of it is that both deals were made to turn the great depth of the Fake ID’s farm system in to elite young or youngish ML players.



Free agents

Sometimes you just ride the waves.  I always try to at least peak at the free agent list on the last day to see what might have gotten missed, but this was a weird class.  There were so many plus ML hitters left!  I decide to put in bids on a few hoping to get a couple and instead got all of them. 



Greg Ward 4/33 mil

Ward was the only FA to get big money from the Fake ID’s.  Ward is a power/speed hitter with a slightly-above-average glove for LF and.385 OBP.   Worth it?  Probably at least for this and next season. 



Jecksson Bailey 2/7.2 mil

An average bat with a decent glove, his calling card has always been his elite batting eye.  However, I couldn’t find at bats and sent him in the Martin trade.



Dwight Herzog 2/6.4 mil



For 3.2 a year, the future HoF’er is an affordable 4^th OF and pinch hitter off the bench who is more than earning his keep.



Gabby Beckett 2/7.5 mil

Pretty much the same as Herzog except he is able to fill in at more defensive positions but doesn’t have quite the same bat.



IFA’s

Having traded Graham I went all out for Yovani Avila spending 23 million.  He will not have the silver slugger bat of Graham, but is less risky as at 18 he could already handle the ML catching duties and should be elite in that area in time.  At the plate she should be league average or better.



Rule 5

Shep Mazzaro



Mazzaro is a 22 year old #4 starter.  While nothing amazing, he is a legitimate ML starter, not a fringe one as one often gets in rule 5. 



Has my planned worked?  I had to give up my #1 and #4 prospects as well as add 20 million to my payroll.  I also hollowed out the 2^nd tier of my prospects significantly having traded #5, #6, and #8.  While have added 2 second tier prospects, its still a 3 for 2 situation.  I no longer have a top 3 system.  I’m probably closer to #8-#10 now.  However, I have moved from 28th in runs scored to 8^th and from 13^th in runs prevented to 9^th.  I’ll take it, but it’s a trade off.

Remaking the Apocalypse

It’s always interesting to me take a deep dive into what a team is up to.  This time I am taking you with me.  I am looking at the trades going from most recent to oldest.  When I make reference to grades, I am making reference to scores on my spreadsheet.


Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Esmerling Martin to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s for Jecksson Bailey, John Kang, and Tony Ortiz


The Apocalypse continue their dealing ways shipping Esmerlin Martin to the suddenly “win now” Fake ID’s.  Martin grades out as a solid #3 starter.  He’s a little better than his grade as he is terrific defensively and his lifetime 3.52 era confirms the above average #3 starter assessment.  He’s 29 and in the last year of his deal making it unlikely he was in Oklahoma City’s long-term plans.  In Bailey, the Apocalypse get bat (.369 career OBP with plus speed).  He’s limited on defense to 1B or below average corner outfield, but he’s on a terrific contract (2/7.2 with only 4.2 guaranteed).  At 32 he’s not part of OKC’s long-term plan, but should be a middle of the order bat immediately.  Kang grades out as a 4^th starter (2710) and his 3.95 career ERA confirms it.  Though 27, he’s hasn’t even hit arbitration yet.  He can take Martin’s spot in the rotation and should only be limited downgrade. Once OKC gets rolling he’ll be out, but he’s a usable piece.  Ortiz is the throw-in.  He grades out as a back-of-the bullpen RP (2646), but his low stamina, low durability limits his impact. 

In Martin the Jacksonville Fake ID’s upgrade their rotation.  Though likely to be playoff bound, they lack top-of-the-rotation talent.  This trade will not address that weakness.  However, Martin does give them, together with Jenkins (2906) and Colome (2887), 3 #2/#3’s.  Since Bailey and Ortiz weren’t contributing at the ML level and weren’t part of the long term plan it’s a fair deal for both sides.



Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Humberto Almora to the Montreal Shamrocks for George Abraham
  

Unlike most of the guys that OKC has dealt Almora could have been part of their long-term plans.  A terrific defensive SS (career 44 +/1 -, .978 fielding) with a so-so bat (.678 career OPS) Almora is a league average SS.  At 26, with years of team control left he is a flexible asset.  As a utility infielder he’s elite, though is a year away from being too expensive for that.  In Abraham the Apocalypse get a 19-year old former 32^nd pick who is fringe ML level now who should develop into a top of the bullpen type, though perhaps not closer.   As he is 3 years away, he’s a nice investment for OKC as he will have years of value if they decide to move off of him at any point. 

Montreal has a roster capable of winning the World Series now.  This is a terrific deal for them as they get a flexible contributor (though not a star) for a guy that won’t make their ML team until season 44.



Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Bralin Kohn to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s for Omar Elcano, Frank Graham, and Felipe Uribe


The often-advertised Kohn is a 29-year old high-inning reliever with elite stuff.  His 2.69 career is 2^nd in the history of Hobbs.  He was perhaps, the best arm available in Hobbs.  However, his 8-million dollar salary, perhaps his age, and how much work it is use him correctly may have thrown a few teams off of his scent. Despite these facts, the 6-time all-star makes the Fake ID’s immediately significantly better.  By one set of projections, he’s a 5-win improvement all by himself.  

The only question from the start was whether OKC was going to get enough (beyond the salary relief).  Omar Elcano is a bit of a tweener.  When the 22-year old is played at SS he has a plus bat, but a below average glove.  At 3^rd, he’ll give a terrific glove and the 25-30 home run power, but will struggle to get on base enough.   On the plus side he is ML ready with no service time and is still improving a little.  His probable outcome is a league average 3B for a team that could really use the 15 +/0 – he’ll put up.  The Fake ID’s did not want to give up Frank Graham.  Only 20, he already has a ML level bat and projects to a 40 HR with good OPS and no real weakness at the plate.  The worry on Graham was how will his glove come along.  While he already has a ML bat, he is no where near ready to play catcher at the ML level yet. If he can reach a pitch calling of 50 or more he’s a plus ML catcher that will make a couple of all-star games.  If not, he’ll only be usable in the AL as a league average DH.  The lottery ticket is Uribe.  Only 19, his stuff is already fringe ML level.  He’s likely to have #2 starter stuff by the time he is done developing.  The question on him is whether he’ll put up enough innings to be a star.  If not, he’ll be an overqualified middle reliever in the mold of Jacksonville’s Juan Trinidad (but with better stuff). 

If you want to be critical of OKC’s rebuild this is where to look.  They traded a true star for 3 ML quality prospects, but guys have at least one “but”.  On the other hand, Kohn’s value was only going to decrease, and this is likely to be the best deal that was available.



Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Lou Trammell to the Montreal Shamrocks for Tony Carrasco


The value of this deal is obvious for both sides.  Trammel is plus bat who likely end the season with 850-870 OPS, but is 34 and pricey.  As he is in the last year of his deal OKC could have probably waited and got the type A pick, but instead decided to get Carrasco, a 4^th OF’er with 0 service time.  More importantly, they save 2.9 million this season that can go into the IFA market.   Montreal adds a nice bat to an already terrific roster and likely wasn’t going to be a big player in the IFA market any way.



Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Dwight Hee to the Colorado House of Horrors for Tony Chen


A nice deal for the Apocalypse as they deal a backup OF’er for a back up catcher.  I would have done this deal if they money was even, but OKC manage to save a couple of million while they were at it.



Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Phil Kim to the Boston Beer Bellies for Matty Reyes


This deal is a perfect example of why Blanch has 19 WS titles.  Some people think the point of trading is to “win” every trade.  It is not!  It is to make both teams better (though making yourself extra better).  When you make the other guy better too they are inclined to want to do another deal later.  The Apocalypse were an NL with a terrific youngish DH.  At best he was going to get 120 at bats for OKC.  Instead they sent him to the AL where he could play every day and make Boston immediately a couple of wins better.  Reyes is an elite setup man that some how got lost in Boston’s system.  With only 1 year of service time, he will be cheap for this plus 2 more seasons.  He’s 32, but just at the same time he will start declining, he would have been cut for getting more expensive than he was worth any way.  At worst, he be able to deal him at the deadline for ML RP prospect.  In other words, he tuned an asset he couldn’t use into one he could while making Boston better in the process.



Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Kelvim Hasegawa, Jerry King, and 5 million to the Colorado House of Horrors for Yamil Cairo, Dean Canizaro, Bo Burrell



Its tough to lose a 7-time all-star, but sometimes you have to.   The likely HoF’er is still a terrific bat and a usable fielder probably best used in LF.  However, owed 18 million over the next 2 years (12 guaranteed) he does not fit on a rebuilding team.  Dealt with Jerry King (an average first basemen on a good deal) he will fit will in Colorado.  He probably makes Colorado 3-4 wins better this season and, as mentioned, is only under contract through his age 35 season. 

You never get to deal a 34-year old and restock your franchise all at one.  Cairo is a slightly younger, slightly cheaper, slightly worse version of King.  Canizaro is a fine defensive replacement OF’er, but is limited to that role.  The usable asset is Bo Burrell.  The 23-year old is a high innings middle reliever that, as a DITR should still get a little better.  He’ll likely be league average in the end, but at 23 and making the minimum he’s a usable innings eater. 

The deal also clears 6.8 million off of OKC this season.



IFA signings

OKC picked up Reynaldo Martin for 14.6 million.

The18 year old already has a ML 3B glove.  To field so well at 18 projects to a solid, if not elite level ML defensive SS.  The bat is a little harder to project his far out, but it looks fine if not terrific.  In others Martin should develop into above average ML SS that should make an all-star game or three.  Not a HoF’er, but a terrific get for 14.6 million.