Monday, December 16, 2019

Season 45 NL West Preview



San Francisco Fog
pfontaine
SEA 44:   99-63, Won Division, advanced to NLDS and lost to Jackson

Season 44 In Brief:  5th straight Division title, but a Division-Round playoff exit at the hands of NL Champ Jackson.  Del Perez on-based .403, Francisco Guerrero .399 with 97 RBI, and  Geronimo Posada hit .302/26/115 for the NL's #2 offense (860 runs).  Kirk Marks (17-10, 3.32 ERA in 227 IP) led the way for the NL's 4th-ranked (3.74 ERA) staff.

Season 45 Preseason:  Mid-range FA signings of 30-something pitchers Diego Romo, Al Benitez and Jalal Carver.  Promoted rookies Delahanty, Silva and Iannetta.

Forecast:  They score a lot of runs because there are always guys on base (.343 team OBP - #1 in NL).  They're not a monster power team but 6 players can give you 20+ homers.  Marks is the undisputed staff ace; starters 2-5 and the short relievers are sneaky effective - they all have modest splits but very good pitches and get away with some mistakes in the spacious ballpark.  Bonus:  Grade A defense anchored by GG-caliber SS Avisail Silva (and Silver Slugger last year with an unexpected 21-HR outburst).  102-60

Player Watch:  I keep thinking Perez will win an MVP because the runs created stat (heavily considered for the MVP ballot) seems to like big OBP guys.  He's probably going to have to hit .340+ with 30 HR's to do it, though.  



Honolulu Luau Dogs
rockydawg07

SEA 44:  78-84

Season 44 In Brief:  kept with their recent pattern of 70's wins in even years and 90's wins in off years.  Brad Terry was a monster again (.336/44/114) and Tracy Stearns had probably his best all-round year with a 15-8, 3.41 ERA in 224 IP.

Season 45 Preseason:  Huge free agent haul with a bunch of budget guys, Hooks Gose (2 years, $10.6MM), Wayne Langerhans (3 years, $39MM)m and Mark Cromer (1 year, $5.2MM).  And they promoted S41 #4 overall B.C. Querecuto and S40 IFA Yamil DeSoto.  


Forecast:  Are Querecuto and DeSoto upgrades over Theo Schulte (FA to Philadelphia) and Eduardo Johnson (demoted to AAA).  Maybe...Schulte and Johnson were both pretty good last year (both right at 4.00 ERA) although Johnson was well below his career ERA.  So, yeah probably an upgrade, especially since the money saved on Schulte went to a lineup upgrade.  Langerhans takes over at 3B, moving Boone Howard to RF, so they get a bump in offense in right and defensive upgrades at both spots.  And Gose settles last year's LF revolving door, converting Victor Brady from a weak link offensively in LF to a plus-hitting multi-position utility man.  I am absolutely not wild about this bullpen, but I love the bold changes.  They'll keep up the pattern.  93-69

Player Watch:  Querecuto was the linchpin of the S42 Vic Campos trade, so they need him to step up and be a solid #1.  I don't think he's quite that, but he'll probably imitate one some seasons.  


Scottsdale Cardinals
finnski

SEA 44:  73-89

Season 44 In Brief:  72, 73, 72 and 73 wins the last 4 seasons; time to shake it up, finnski.  Trever Fick (.285/28/107) and Howie Lee (.267/30/119) were the big producers for a pretty decent offense (736 runs, 9th in NL).  The pitching  struggled with all the primary SP's posting 4.70+ ERA's.  Relievers Ronald Hoover (27 saves, 3.10 ERA), Al Sucre (7 wins, 3.11 ERA) and Francisco Peguero (3.57 ERA in 106 IP) kept the late innings competitive although they combined for only 233 IP.  Of more statistical than competitive significance, 1B Yonder Guzman swiped 118 bases - likely a top-10 season (#5 is 123 by Bobby Mientkiewicz in S5) and almost certainly a record for 1B's.

Season 45 Preseason:  Only a couple of middling P's in Jair Martinez and Eli Izquierdo in FA.  Otherwise, all quiet in the preseason.

Forecast:  I fondly remember the Lou Trammel - led Cards of long ago, who routinely bashed 240 HR's whether they were good or not.  Now they're a contact-and-speed team with a 1B who steals 100+ bases.  It's nice to see Trever Fick produce; I liked him from his MiL days and he's only gotten a chance to play FT the last 4 seasons with Scottsdale.  Lee is really the only other dangerous hitter, and he's out of position at 2B.  #1 starter Billy Walker can be better than he was last year (4.86 ERA vs. career of 4.38).  Maybe Eli Izquierdo can dial up some magic one more time at age 38, but even that wouldn't save this  pitching staff.  70-92

Player Watch:  Unfortunately, Guzman - and whether he can steal 123+ bags to get into the top 5 SB seasons - is the team's most interesting player.  



Salt Lake City Trappers
palet99
SEA 44:  61-101

Season 44 In Brief:  A second rebuild year for the palet regime.  They got their best hitting season from Hooks Gose (.293/22/70), who left in FA.  The staff had some moments...probably the most by swingman Weldon Jenkins (6-6, 2.72 ERA in 112 IP), who was trade away during the season.  They got P Albert Ortiz at #6 in the draft.

Season 45 Preseason:  Budget FA signings were the norm although they paid up a bit for P Louis Stein.  As with last season, they brought up a bunch of rookies, most notably 3B Juan Carlos Alvarado (S41 IFA, $17MM bonus) and SS Don Coffey (S40 #72 overall).

Forecast:  The roster has gotten very cheap - under $25MM for the whole organization.  They can now play in the IFA market while they gradually improve.  This is a touch-and-go year for them - they didn't commit much to free agents and their mwr is 64, 3 more than they won last year.  They'll probably make it, but it might be close.  66-96

Player Watch:  SS Coffey is going to make some errors, but will also be a + play machine with that range and arm strength.  He'll also be a much better hitter than most SS's of his defensive talent.  Great bargain at #72 in his draft.

Division Race
1.  San Francisco     102-60
2.  Honolulu               93-69
3.  Scottsdale              70-92
4.  Salt Lake                66-96

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