Saturday, December 7, 2019

Season 45 AL North Preview



Montreal Shamrocks
jmercer77 

SEA 44:  79-83

Season 44 In Brief:  3 "tweener"/rebuild seasons now after their run of 90/100 wins.  4th MVP for Heath Dickerson (.326/42/139) in what's starting to look like a HOF career.  The staff's best ERA was Davy Schlehuber's 4.27, which tells you all you need to know about their pitching (5.43 ERA - 13th).

Season 45 Preseason:  The youth movement continues.  Got IF Dwight Bonds (S41 #40 overall) in the Rule V and promoted IF Nick Burke (S40 #68 overall).  Signed cheap vets Octavio Trevino, Glen Brisker and J.O. Guerrero to fill in until younger talents can emerge.  

Forecast:  There's plenty to like about the lineup.  C Doc Crespo can get you 30 dingers and his new buddy Guerrero can come in in the 8th and play D.  Dickerson of course.  RF Felix Cave had a nice rookie campaign and looks like an .860 OPS you can count on.  Brisker and Trevino will be adequate in LF, especially for the combined price of $1.5MM.  2B, 3B, SS will be manned by a gaggle of 6 guys who won't hit much but will catch and throw very well.  The pitching is going to be a continuation of last year.  Their best arms are all short relievers (Quixote, Lira, James); they were all bad last year, but even if they all rebound it won't make a huge difference.   Assuming the lineup holds up, they'll be around last year's win total.  If the lineup tanks, it could be really ugly.  75-87

Player Watch:  I like 2nd -year RF Cave to take a step forward with a big year.  




Milwaukee Chedda
Zattack 
SEA 4490-72, Wild Card, lost Play-In to Las Vegas.  

Season 44 In Brief:  Nice playoff run but a quick out.  Moved up from 11th in scoring in S43 to 5th, thanks to a career year from Tanyon Joyner (.286/57/140) and big seasons from 2B Pablo Guerrero (.311/34/111) and RF Yoslan Goya (.314/25/94).  Solid pitching effort with a 4.11 ERA (4th) - #1 Stan Story had an All-Star year (16-7, 3.32 ERA in 214 IP).

Season 45 Preseason:  LF Dan Burke was a big FA loss - Benny Montanez won't give 'em the offense but will probably win the GG in LF.  A bigger signing was Chico Astacio, who solidifies CF and will be a big improvement over last year's committee.  FA Kyle Hartman looks like the only addition to last year's staff - he's probably taking one of the LR spots.  

Forecast:  Love the addition of Astacio to this lineup and defense - offense is better, OF defense is better, and Trayce Zoltan moves back to his natural 3B full-time.  Goya's still a prime tablesetter at age 35 (and one of Hobbs' top OBP guys of all-time) with Joyner and Guerrero handling the prime RBI duties.  Other than Story, it's kind of an anonymous-but-effective staff.  Mateo Andrus, Ted Cash and Bo Burrell were all sensational last year - Milwaukee needs repeat performances from all 3.  This is a better team than last season.  95-67

Player Watch:  CF Astacio.  This is a huge acquisition...remember, this guy was MVP 2 seasons ago.  



Kansas City Jayhawks
dakar
SEA 44:  98-64, won Division, advanced to ALCS and lost to Montgomery

Season 44 In Brief:  The Jayhawks have arrived...the only question is whether they've done enough to get past (or even with) Montgomery.  Their pitching was just a hair behind Montgomery's for top AL ERA, and the lineup put up 874 runs - 3rd in the AL.

Season 45 Preseason:  2 big free agent moves:  MR Yangervis Johnson and 1B Dillon Mateo.  I'm not a big fan of either player, but I like the front-loaded contracts.  Mateo is coming off his career year, so he probably looked better than any other 1B in FA.  

Forecast:  Joaquin Merced tallied .273/30/91 as a rookie and that's just scratching the surface of his talent.  Wow, that outfield - Merced in right, Harry Estrada in left and defensive whiz Michael Esquerra in center.  They get bonus power punch at 3B with Higashioka and bonus bases with C Bo Guerrier.  KC goes with a 4 - man rotation (the ace, Pascual Castillo, second-year #2 Nicky Glaus, the comeback-waiting-to-happen James Haney, and Einar Vargas), a bunch of middle relievers, and a tough short group led by the twin monsters Happy Cepeda and Edgard Mendoza.  Don't know if they're better or even with Montgomery, but they're very good.  98-64
Player Watch:  RF Merced.  Put him on MVP watch.



 
Philadelphia Erffdoggs
wholck 
SEA 44:  90-72

Season 44 In Brief:  Ouch, missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker but a very good season.  12th in runs with 781 and 8th in ERA at 4.39.  Tomas Alcantara (12-11, 3.84) paced the staff, and Tony Martin (.293/34/78),  Nevin Stinnett  (.270/36/89) and Destin Shea (.241/42/92)

Season 45 Preseason:  Pitching and defense for the 'doggs in free agency.  They'll really lock down the 8th and 9th with Aurelio Duran and Yordano Valdes, and they've improved at SS with Connie Brown.    

Forecast:  Very young roster with young stars (2B Shea is 23; RF Martin is 22).  There's power all over the lineup (273 HR's) - 1B, 2B, 3B, DH and both COF's.  As with many power teams, they're not that great at reaching base - .327.  The pitching staff is top half of the league, but I have to think they've made a critical move with the 2 shut-down short relievers.  Does that help them in 1-run games?  Well, they were 31-22 last year so maybe it helps them get late-inning lucky again.  They probably won't be right on 90 again, so I think they improve a bit.  94-68.

Player Watch:  Closer Valdes.  Hall-of-Famer still going strong at 35.


Division Race:
1.  Kansas City     98-64
2.  Philadelphia   94-68
3.  Milwaukee      95-67
4.  Montreal         75-87

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