Monday, December 2, 2019

Season 45 NL North Preview



Helena Hot Heads
dbreez
SEA 44: 62-100

Season 44 In Brief:  A third rebuilding season for Helena.  They actually had a competent ML offense with 758 runs (8th in the NL), sparked by slugging CF Lorenzo Rosario (.276/49/119) and vR C Chris Bruske (.308/32/69).  They also led the NL in homers (277), so you can guess how the pitching fared.  Yep, 5.25 ERA - 15th.  More important to the rebuilding effort, they added IFA Jose Encarnacion  and #7 overall Bump Graveman.

Season 45 Preseason:  Nothing of note in this year's offseason on the FA front for this very young team.  They'll go with last year's roster plus Rule Fiver Richie Wilkins, who isn't going to on-base very well but will add to the longball fireworks and will make some flashy plays at 1B.

Forecast:  Much of the same for 1 more year (note: their mwr this year is 63) as they build up to next year's promotions of Encarnacion and Season 43 IFA Audry Rojas.  That'll give them a talented 1-2 SP nucleus to go with the power lineup and they'll be off and running for a decade.  66 Wins.

Player Watch:  Rosario has had more homers and RBI (generally a lot more) than the NL CF Silver  Slugger winners (Javy Valenzuela in S42,  Chico Astacio in S43, and Einar Nunez in S44) in each of his first 3 seasons.

Vancouver Chin Music
TXLnghrn
SEA 44:  58-104

Season 44 In Brief: Another rebuilding team with a competent (724 runs, 11th in NL) offense but hopeless pitching.  Part-timers like Micheal Butera (.860 OPS) and  Abraham Norman (.852 OPS) held the offense together while Hong-Chih Park hit the DL yet again.  They got a few decent relief innings from some of their geezer free-agents-to-be, but in general the staff was a conflagration of gas-cannery.

Season 45 Preseason:  Very interested to see how TXLnghrn starts turning this ship.  They lost a few FA's but none that matter.  And as expected, the FA contracts were largely of the budget variety...SP Oswaldo Sardinha's 1 year for $4.4MM being a bit of an exception.  They have promoted one significant prospect, SS Al Escobar.  Escobar is a promising power-hitting SS who was the #8 pick in season 39 and got a couple hundred ML AB's in season 43.  Mark him down for ROY watch.

Forecast:  No doubt a deep rebuilding year, although the lineup will see some  highlights and keep the record respectable.  We might see power prospect Eric White in 20 games, although I'd expect their best pitching prospect, Jerad Jones (S43 #3 overall) to get a full year in AAA.  60 wins.

Player Watch:  Keep that eye out for Al Escobar in the ROY race.


Toronto St. Pats
bluebaran
SEA 44:  69-93

Season 44 In Brief:  The pitching is what kept the Pats respectable last season.  The staff's 4.23 ERA was 12th, but only .17 runs out of 8th.  The hitters only managed 602 runs, so that should be the focus this year.  24 1-run wins certainly helped.  That was Season 2 of the bluebaron rebuild, and as you'll see things are about to start looking up.

Season 45 Preseason:  They had the usual not-very-significant comings and goings of a rebuilding team, but the big offseason news is the elevation of Royce Jordan to the big club.  Jordan was the #1 pick in the draft just 2 seasons ago (Season 43) out of the University of Tennessee. He's just what you want in a college draftee: 2 seasons to being a big-time ML impact.  At 6'7", he's reminiscent of a rangy slugger of long ago, King Kong Kingman, but he has much better contact and on-base skills.  To top it off he looks ready to be a prolific base thief.

Forecast:  Jordan and 1B Philip Kennedy present a pretty formidable 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup.  LF Alex Kim seems to have an even-year-bad and odd-year good pattern going - let's hope it holds up.  Ryan in CF has been better-than-adequate, but the offensive talent falls off the table after that.  More bats needed, but they'll outscore last year's 602.  Chris Houston is the only arm they can really count on, so their pitching is anybody's guess.  If it implodes their win total could back up, but their mwr is only 55 this year and I don't think that's in play.  More runs, probably a little worse pitching...65 wins.

New York Skyscrapers
tytabs
SEA 44: 86-76, won Division, advanced to NLCS and lost to Jackson

Season 44 In Brief:  With the arrival of all those prospects, NY won the Division again, but really made a statement in the playoffs, beating 106-game winners Columbus and Jacksonville.  With so much talent coming to the fore it's hard to single out 1 or 2 standouts, but I'd point to RF Ralph Clancy (.330/28/88 and his 2nd Silver Slugger) and SP Clinton Walters (14-13, 3.14 ERA in 237.2 IP).

Season 45 Preseason:  NY kept the powder dry with only a couple of budget FA signings: P's Glen Coste and Mark Cloud.  It's a diverse lineup with surprisingly good power - 3B Chen is the only one with 40-HR power, but they get lots of 10-15 HR's from platooners and infielders.  Top-to-bottom it's strength is contact and OBP.  They'll be in the top 5 in runs scored for a lot of years.  If there's a criticism of the staff it's that they don't have a true #1 SP, although you'd have to call the projected rotation of Walters/Holland/Purcell/Seaver/Cloud a strength.  Sam Teagarden is the undisputed bullpen ace - he's been used in a traditional setup A role but I think they could get 160-170  IP out of him if used differently.  

Forecast:  As currently constructed, this is probably a 94-win team again (their 30 1-run losses last year pulled them well below their expected total).  But the intriguing possibility is trading some of their bounty of young talent for a true ace.  Stay tuned at the deadline.  For now, 94-68.

Player Watch:  Going into his age 25 season, Chen already has 156 HR's.  Watch for him to be back over 40 this year.

Division Race:
1.  New York    94-68
2.  Helena         66-96
3.   Toronto       65-97
4.   Vancouver   60-102



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