ACEROTHSTEIN
SEA 44: 80-82
Season 44 In Brief: Kind of a consolidation year, the first of the ACEROTHSTEIN era in Oakland. They had some decent offensive performances by Darren Haren (.266/33/107), Domingo Marmol (.257/32/97) and Alcides Santana (.287/27/87), but the pitching was bad (5.50 ERA) in a spacious stadium. 80-82 with a load of aging vets on 1-year contracts...not a bad placeholder season.
Season 45 Preseason: Wholesale turnover, although I can't say I think they'll miss any of the FA dapartees. They filled some of the holes with late - FA economy guys again (RP Antonio Key, C Alfonso Mangual, RP Myles Sweeney) - but also dug a little deeper to sign more significant talents like DH Tim Jeter and OF Dallas Sever . They've also brought up at least 3 rookies to start the season.
Forecast: Improved hitting with the additions of Jeter and Sever. In their ballpark, the pitching could certainly improve...at worst I think they'll be a little better than last year. How about 85 wins? 85-77
Player Watch: All-in-all I think CF Peter Stockton is their best player. Not likely to make an MVP ballot, but could be an All-Star.
werniss
SEA 44: 72-90
Season 44 In Brief: Despite the usual otherworldly offensive numbers (Doug Duncan .341/65/196, Brooks Bell .341/43/130, Frank Graham .290/56/139), the HoH failed to crack .500 for the 3rd straight season. The pitching, which is normally a lot better than the ballpark makes it look (CRAZY stat: in Season 43, the staff had a 3.88 ERA on the road, 2nd in the AL. Last year, same stat was 5.10 - 12th). Here's another one that tells you how bad the pitching was: Sam Stock and Juan Martinez were the only 2 pitchers on the staff with ERA's UNDER 6.
Season 45 Preseason: Colorado lost 5 aging pitchers and OF Greg Ward, who looks like he's done at age 36, 7 HR's short of 500. They countered with more aging pitchers, although I think Tomas Carrara and Marcos Presley (even at age 40) will be upgrades. Defensive whiz (95 range, 90 glove) Taylor Barkley will be an interesting addition whether he takes 2B or CF (probable).
Forecast: I'd bet the house their pitching will be much improved this season. Their 2 best pitchers, Martinez and Stock, haven't lost anything on their ratings even entering their age 38 and 36 seasons. Is Mark Pettitte really a 6.60 ERA pitcher, even with half his games in Coors (He was 4.72 on the road last year btw)? I think not. You know the offense will score at least 950 runs, maybe 1000. 84-78
Player Watch: If Duncan can it 65 HR's playing in Coors, I'd think Brooks Bell could as well. If he gets close to that, he probably makes the MVP ballot, although my sense is that COL players get discounted severely by voters. Sam Stock was used more in a traditional setup role last year and the team that desperately needed pitching left 50 of his innings in the bullpen. Let's see him start every 3rdd day or something.
iceman67
SEA 44: 91-71, Wild Card, advanced to ALDS and lost to Montgomery
Season 44 In Brief: A fine season for the Crue - their biggest win total since Season 26 and a 15-win jump from Season 43. Improved by 68 runs (thank-you career year from Dillon Mateo - .335/25/114), ERA improved from 4.50 to 4.21, and their already-stupendous +/- plays even improved from 113/24 to 116/15.
Season 45 Preseason: Mateo departed for a big FA contract in Kansas City, so former RF Clint Susac takes over at 1B and Benito Manuel becomes the likely RF. Other than that, this is largely the same roster as Season 44.
Forecast: Can they put it all together again? It's a tall order, especially when your best hitter snubs you for more $$. I think their pitching can repeat, and probably has a small chance of improving - other than Harold Willis (11-9, 2.80 ERA), none of their SP's had a terribly out-of-character year. But those 825 runs will be hard to do again with this lineup. We might see Glen Davey and Ernest Thompson early if the offense struggles. I'm predicting a small falloff to 87-75.
jcairns
SEA 44: 93-69, Won Division, advanced to ALDS and lost to Kansas City
Season 44 In Brief: 2nd straight Division title for the Mongeese, who only scored 813 runs (10th) but expertly mixed and matched pitchers (12 different P's started games, and Maicer Candelario led in IP with 155.2) to the tune of a 4.02 ERA (3rd). Their .989 Fielding % and 70/20 +/- helped out the pitchers a lot.
Season 45 Preseason: They were hit hard in FA, especially on the staff (most notably the aging but effective Marcos Presley and Felipe Garza). They signed Emil Ontiveros, Chad Reid and Yimi Arcia to fill the void and I think they succeeded in replacing those lost quality innings. They also lost primary DH Roberto Almora (topped the team in OPS with .860) and countered well with Yamil Ibanez. The farm system continues to produce - Tim Blake (S39 #25 overall) settles in at LF for his first full season. It was a challenging offseason and they came through it with flying colors.
Forecast: How does this pitching staff do it? It's somewhat of a pitcher's park but not extremely so. They weren't particularly lucky in 1-run games last year - actually they were pretty unlucky at 14-18. And last year's ERA doesn't look like a fluke given Season 43's 4th-place finish. I'm a skeptic but maybe jcairns has some magic dust I'm ignorant of. I'm more bullish on the lineup although I think they're a bat short somewhere - C, LF or CF. Obviously they get huge relative production at 2B, 3B and SS, but I think they need a bit more to return to S43's 880-run level (a year in which they got big contributions from a 37-yo Joe Wilk at $1.1MM) and a 35-yo Treni Cruz at $2.2MM). I'm just not sold on the magic dust theory of their pitching, so I'm saying 88 wins.
Division Race
1. Las Vegas 88-74
2. Los Angeles 87-75
3. Oakland 85-77
4. Colorado 84-78
Lucious, a 4-team race right out of the box.
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