Season 46 AL West Preview

Oakland A's

ACEROTHSTEIN

SEA 45: 87-75, won Division, advanced to Division Series and lost to Montgomery

Offseason:  Had a couple of pretty good SP holes when Andre Counsel and Jeremy Tollberg opted for FA; answered by signing Duffy Miller, Randy Shoppach (who promptly suffered a season-ending injury), and 3 relievers.  

Offense/Defense:  The A's hitting stats are a little deceptive - looking only at their 722 runs scored, you'd think their lineup a bit powder-puffy.  But how'd they do in an "average" park away from the spacious Oakland-Alameda?  .774 OPS, 6th in the AL.  CF Peter Stockton, coming off his best campaign (.302/14/68, 24 SB) is the table-setter.  DH Tim Jeter (.303/28/97), 3B Darren Harren (.267/24/104), and the weirdly consistent (OPS between .820 and .892 in all 7 of his full-time seasons) Domingo Marmol drive in the runs.  Question marks on who mans RF and whether Dallas Sever can cobble together 1 more decent year before he becomes a Low A hitting coach.  Pretty good defensively with a .986 fielding percentage; their 62 good plays weren't great but they also avoided bad plays (only 18). 3B Harren is their true defensive standout (18 + plays).

Pitching:  It's not a big-name staff but they get the job done.  3 starters (Keller, Tollberg, Padden) posted sub-4 ERA's last year, and Miller's likely to add one to that column.  Save Season 44, Freddie Martin has been a very consistent performer and has thrived in the closer role (wouldn't the A's love a repeat of his 46-save, 0.91-WHIP showing of S45?).  I think they'll miss Myles Sweeney as the 2nd setup man behind Offerman (6 wins, 3.48 ERA).  

Forecast:  They didn't change much, and the Offerman injury means they'll do deeper into long relievers to get those innings.  I think we're looking at something close to last year, but a couple fewer wins.

Prediction: 85-77

Colorado House of Horrors

werniss

SEA 45: 81-81

Offseason:  Jettisoned pitchers Marcos Presley and Mark Pettite (adding to the long line of good P's that have been bludgeoned in Colorado).  RF Brooks Bell was a significant FA loss.  SP Lon Loman, CF Phil Crawford, and Jensen Helms (probably a RF now) were the FA additions of  note.    


Offense/Defense:  The offense will be off a little without Bell's .336/48/127 - I don't see anyone else around that can replace that.  I suppose Doug Duncan has one more big year in him - I can see it now:  a few years down the road a new owner comes in, looks at Duncan's 700+ HR's and declares him a "HOF no-brainer".  His half-season road numbers (.792 OPS) are decidedly non-HOF-ish.  For that matter, the team's road OPS last year of .729 suggests a bottom-half-of-the-AL lineup.  Their 126 errors and 54/56 +/- didn't help out the better-than-it-looks pitching staff.

Pitching:  Is Colorado setting up for a rebuild?  Juan Martinez' contract expires this year, Sam Stock's next.  They did give Lon Loman a 5-year contract (slightly front-loaded).  How do you manage a pitching staff in Colorado anyway?  Mark Pettite's not a HOF'er or a CY winner, but he's a pretty good pitcher, and his ERA's in Colorado were 6.60 and 6.80...how much worse can you get than that?  Does it make sense in COL to just run out the 12 or 13 cheapest pitchers you can find and then spend on offense until you get a lineup that hits 400 HR's?

Forecast:  How to forecast a team that actually has poor hitting but puts up big hitting numbers, and actually has pretty good pitching but puts up terrible pitching numbers?

Prediction: 71-91

Los Angeles Motley Crue

iceman67

SEA 45: 78-84

Offseason:  Re-signed Pablo Valbuena for one more roundup and promoted P Karim Mateo (#18 pick in S42) in an uneventful Winter.  

Offense/Defense:  The Crue have been one of Hobbs' best defensive teams the last few years and posted a remarkable 97/17 +/-, although their errors crept up again to 94.  In their good years, their lineup has been in the top half of the AL even with the superb fielding; last year the bottom fell out of the offense (685 runs).  Some was due to attrition - 1B Dillon Mateo moved on and while his replacement Clint Susac wasn't terrible (.275/22/68) he wasn't Mateo.  They did have quite a few year-to-year drop-offs but none were terrible:  feels like a rebound to something like 730 runs.

Pitching:  Very  good last year with a 3rd-best 3.84 ERA.  Amazing stat: they used only 5 starters and only 11 pitchers in total all season.  Matty Ludwick is Exhibit A in the argument for pitches over splits, or at least over vL.  Sticky Puffer had his only season with a sub-4 ERA, so get ready for a return to the 4.30 range.  Jenkins and Alomar are pretty reliable in the 3.70-4.10 ERA area - not bad for #3 and 4 starters.  Hughes is their wild card starter - he can put up pretty good numbers but don't expect them or he'll disappoint.  Like most bullpens theirs has a lot of holes but will get some nice performances from unexpected places.

Forecast:  Along with Honolulu, this team remains the hardest to predict.  I think they'll bounce back some this year because their lineup has to be better, and I don't see a pitching implosion on the horizon.  One of our surprise teams this year.


Prediction: 90-72

Las Vegas Mongeese

jcairns

SEA 45:  85-77

Offseason:  Traded for SP Micah Scharein and rubber-armed reliever Enerio Otanez.  Had to deal with few FA losses, but won't miss any of them.  OF Howie Lee was their  big FA splurge with a 5-year front-loaded deal. 

Offense/Defense:  With 2B Ainsworth, 3B Stock, SS Fonville, and RF Willie Taylor, Vegas has 4 of the top talents at their position in all Hobbs, much less the division.  All have power, get on base and (except Fonville, who's merely good at SS) are superior defenders (Taylor would be a 3B - and a very good one - on any other team).  The 'geese have been able to put enough compliments around their Big 4 to keep them in the top half of the AL offensively.  It's a power and speed lineup that's a little short on the on-base department, and the punch is definitely concentrated in those 4 bats.  The D only committed 77 errors and notched a very good 82/23 on +/- plays.  

Pitching:  Scharein probably becomes the #1 starter, replacing...well, they really didn't have one last year so it's an upgrade.  Beyond that they have another 6 SP's battling for 4 jobs.  Niko Ryan likely claims one based on last year's 2.61 ERA, but beyond that it's anyone's guess.  The bullpen's a hodgepodge.  Yimi Arcia has always looked like he could like he could string together a few good seasons, but he never did and isn't likely to start now.  Polin Padilla looks like an Arcia clone and has had similar results.

Forecast:  The more I look at this team beyond the Big 4, the less enthusiastic I get, but I do think Scharein gives them another handful of wins.  

Prediction:  89-73

Division Race
1.  Los Angeles 
2.  Las Vegas
3.  Oakland    
4.  Colorado   

Season 46 AL East Preview

Boston Beer Bellies
torrone 
SEA 45:  70-92

Offseason:  Only significant FA loss was SP Dan Gabriel - all the others are headed for retirement.  One big FA signing of SP Russell Powell plus they re-signed RP Yorvit Medrano.  Active on the trade front: got a pretty fair young SP/LR (B.C. Martinez) and a slick-fielding SS prospect (Stephen Allen) for LF Xander Oliva (I like the Bellies' side of that deal); moved a minor league 2B for DH Robinson Moscoco (not much to this trade but again I prefer the BOS side); and shipped out a pair of pitching prospects (one of whom, Victor Sanchez could see the Majors) for SP Yohan Lugo (career ERA of 4.49 in a neutral ballpark, so nothing much to get excited about).  Much younger team than recent editions, and getting younger.

Offense/Defense:  Solid lineup that swings a lot (445 walks - 15th in AL), makes contact a lot (.270 - 4th) hits for decent power (217 HR's - 7th) and runs well (177 SB and 70 CS).  There's no real star anywhere but a bunch of guys hitting 15-29 HR's and driving in 80 runs.  More of the same ready to come u from AAA, although maybe Moscoco can break out with bigger power numbers.  Bottom half defensively, with 104 errors and 57/25 +/-.  I'm assuming they'll promote Allen in 20 games - looks like they'll move Wilking Guerrero to CF and Darren Gil to LF and improve their defense at 3 positions.

Pitching:  OK, we've got last year's rotation (ERA's in the 5's) minus Gabriel, plus Lugo and Howell.  Is that an improvement?  If you squint real hard you can see one.  Medrano's probably the best arm on the staff - he anchors the bullpen of otherwise 4A luminaries.  

Forecast:  Good lineup and improved defense, but limited by the staff.

Prediction: 75-87

Pittsburgh Dream Eaters
hystericslap 
SEA 45: 61-101

Offseason:  Looks like they had 9 FA departures,  none of whom mattered much.  They reloaded with higher quality replacement but were still clearly seeking bargains.  RP A.J. Sweeney was probably the "star" of their FA haul.

Offense/Defense:  This is where they really need the work - last year's 587 runs won't cut it.  They're going to have to get some surprise seasons from 2-3 guys because it's more or less last year's lineup.  DH Bo Stewart actually had his best season last year (.291/34/102).  Harry Diaz will improve the 2B production, and 3B Octavio Javier will snap back from his worst year.  1B Josh Long hit 39 HR's in S44 when they scored 791 runs (with a few of the same cast), so there are some reasons for optimism.  This is one of the AL's better defenses thanks largely to 3B Javier (2 straight GG's) and SS Marv Lemon (25 good plays).

Pitching:  With the offense collapsed, their pitching (3.76 ERA) made the mwr for them.  Far and away the most interesting pitcher on this squad is the Jekyll-and-Hyde Vasco Alonso, who was an $18MM IFA in Season 39 by Montgomery and subsequently traded to the Eaters in Season 42.  Alonso has excellent splits and sketchy control, plus both good and bad pitches.  Fittingly, his ERA's his  first 2 seasons have been 2.88 (the S44 good Alonso) and 4.08 (the S45 Mr. Hyde Alonso).  They need the good Alonso to show up this year - the rest of the staff is devoid of difference-makers.  

Forecast:  It's not necessarily logical, but I expect a pretty nice comeback season.  

Prediction:  74-88

Durham Bulls
aaamizzou
SEA 45: 77-85, Won Division, lost to Philadelphia in Round 1

Offseason:  Not a big offseason for the East Champs.  Said adios to some retiring vets, resigned Danys De La Vega, who has quietly put together a .900-OPS career.  That's about it.

Offense/Defense:  Jumped about 40 runs to 792 last year, good for 7th in the AL.  Big long-ball team with 252 HR's (Yasiel Cayones 41, Philip Corsi 40), but they'll also take a walk (530 - 6th) and peck away with good contact (.269 BA - 5th).  1B Darrell Lynn kind of typifies Durham's offense: 195 hits and .313 BA, fair share of BB's with 61, 35 jacks, and no stolen bases.  Defensively, they were in the middle of the pack with 89 errors but were last in the AL in + plays with 39.

Pitching:  With teams like Durham that play their home games in extreme hitters' parks, I try to gauge their pitching by their road numbers - kind of a proxy for how they do in an average ballpark.  The Bulls posted a road ERA of 4.76 last year - 12th in the NL.  Durham's another team that has been using a version of a relief.  It looks like they'll try it again, as their (currently 9-man) staff is heavy on relievers.  Ryan Blackley (a former #10 pick) didn't start any games last year but was very good (3.39) in 31 outings and looks like their best pitcher.  He could be up for the 50-start role and if he is, their ERA will drop.

Forecast:  Added 18 wins last year - not a fluke but the improvements will come harder.

Prediction:  82-80

Toledo Walleye
pak4427
SEA 44:  73-89

  

 Offseason:  Pretty quiet off-season for the Walleye.  Some FA losses off the low end of the roster and some budget signings, the best of which were likely SS Luther Smith and RP Pete Bonham.  Since Bonham doesn't have an injury event on his player card, I'm assuming Toledo signed him while he was injured.  I think this will end up being a clever way to get a nice pitcher for a year and a half on a cheap deal.

Offense/Defense:  The Walleye dropped off by 135 runs year-to-year even with 3B Alex Reid's big comeback season (.277/40/113).  What's up with that?  It was a combination of poor performances and attrition:  both COF's (Crocker and Ritz) suffered through poor seasons and the 1B committee that sought to replace Yoervis Barrios was incompetent.  The good news is Crocker and Ritz (particularly) will bounce back and re-form the young core of this lineup with Reid and C Bernie Guzman.  Maybe Napoleon Rogers can step up and fill the 1B void - his .612 OPS last year doesn't suggest it but he could improve.  This isn't a 700-run offense by a long sight, but it isn't Season 44's 843 either.  The defense was near the bottom of the AL with 101 errors and a 47/31 +/-.  New SS's Smith and Raul Machi (don't look now but he's #5 on the career list for good plays at SS) will give those number a nice boost.

Pitching:  Toledo's pitching staff is really future HOF'er Paul Kinney and then everybody else.  Andy Cobb can have a big season as evidenced by his 3.29 ERA in Season 43, but that's only 1 good season out of 5.  I'm much more optimistic about  Santiago Fuentes' breakout possibilities - his control's a little shaky but his splits are pretty good and his pitches excellent.   Wilbur Harris is the best of a so-so bullpen. 

Forecast:  Their 4 young studs in the lineup will be good; their fortunes hang on getting some better pitching from the likes of Fuentes (will happen) and Cobb (won't happen).  Add up to 10 more wins.

Prediction: 83-79

Division Race:

1.  Toledo     

2.  Durham

3.  Pittsburgh

4.  Boston      

Season 46 NL South Preview

Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners

jgsolari3

SEA 45:  87-75, Wild Card, lost to Jacksonville in Round 1

Offseason:  Let some notable names - Dummy Simpson, Jecksson Bailey, Gavin Woods, Fautino Castillo - walk in FA while re-signing Carlos Polonia, Rafael Moreno and Wily Osoria.  Added 2B's Tuck Howard and Bartolo Espinosa plus SP Willie Matos.  Promoted C Curt Blevins 

Offense/Defense:  It's a lineup that does a little of everything - better'n average power, good thievery skills, decent at getting on base.  Although his power is evaporating quickly, Pep Walsh is still dangerous and will hit his 600th homer sometime in the second half.  Dennis Boswell is still a power/on-base dual threat at 33.  Sean Cameron is coming off his best season by far (.297/32/100), so expect a falloff.  Very impressive 748 runs last year but I think it's going to fall off some.  The defense will improve with their 2B pickups - 9 - plays there last year.

Pitching:  I loved the Willie Matos contract when I thought it was $4.5MM/year...a little less when I saw the next 3 years (through age 39) for $8.2MM.  IF he can stay healthy (Health = 46) this could be the signing that decides the division.  Matos joins an already very-good rotation of Wily Osoria (10-6, 2.66), Geraldo Manto (17-6, 2.78), Johnny Gardner (10-10, 3.52), and Yasmani Costilla (10-10, 4.39).  The bullpen plan is hand it off to William Lui (4 wins, 11 saves, 3.67 in 132 IP) and hide everybody else.

Forecast:  Their power hitters are getting up in age, but they're better at 2B and I really like the rotation.  

Prediction:  85-77

San Juan Padres

bobbyj7

SEA 45:  87-75

Offseason:  The moves that mattered were Ezequiel Escobar signing with Milwaukee, Omir Stowers staying home, signing Matty Reyes and Andres Morlan, and promoting Dave Nathan (#15 pick in Season 41, he was the best power prospect in that draft and got 16 AB's last year).

Offense/Defense:  In this ballpark, Nathan should step right in as their best power hitter and a ROY candidate (guessing something like .260 with 47 HR's).  That'll give a nice boost to an already-potent lineup.  It's a free-swinging squad that doesn't take many walks and does their damage with the longball.  CF Einar Nunez (.296/28/77) is the one guy who gets some free passes; if he isn't the leadoff man I'd sure like to see him there.  Pretty nifty on defense with 84/28 +/- plays last year; 3B Omar Elcano, SS Sidney McMasters, and 2B Al Guzman had half the good plays.  

Pitching:  San Juan was right on the NL-average ERA last year at 4.00.  Given the phone-both like nature of their ballpark, I'd call that a pretty good performance (although they've been right at that number for the last 3 seasons).  This year's challenge will be replacing the excellent performances of 2 departed artistas - Felipe Garza (moved on to Jacksonville but 5 wins, 2.74 in 108 IP last year) and Escobar (10 wins, 3.78 in 157  IP).  Reyes and Morlan aren't going to pick up the slack - their best shot is Jimmy Miller, who had a 15-win, 3.30-ERA season 2 years back.  Like many teams, when you get to the bullpen it's stats-padding time - Domingo Florimon had a decent year in relief but looks like a 5.50 ERA any season now.

Forecast:  Looks like more runs but more runs allowed to me.  Minor drop in wins.

Prediction:  85-77

Houston Colt .45s

pimpbotlove

SEA 45:   87-75

Offseason: Had a few FA losses but most are headed for retirement.  2 cheap and good FA signings of SS P.T. Franco and  RP Zeke Sears.

Offense/Defense:  Gotta love the first season of Danry Montero's career - swung at everything, fanned 136 times (nothing by today's ML standards), but still  hit .267 with 49 jacks.  I don't remember how close he was in the ROY voting to winner Royce Jordan, but it shoulda been close.  With help from a finally-healthy Hong-Chih Park (40 bombs) and 8 more players with double-digit homers, the 45s were 3rd in runs and topped the NL in homers in S45.  Can't see any reason they'd come off that pace this year.   Houston had the fewest errors in the league last year with 72, so the defense is solid.

Pitching:  I'm not sure how their pitching setup works but it appears to revolve around the iron arm (43 starts, 261 IP) of Diego Alomar and a horde of short relievers, some of whom (Toby Sosa, Sears, Rodney Roberts) are usually good and some of whom (Murton, Flores, Miles, Wilson) are occasionally good.  OK, Alomar starts a lot of games, Reimold and Tartamella get about 30 starts but don't go very deep in them, and the the short guys come on.  Looks like they need a couple more reliable starters for occasional work (that could come soon in the form of S42 #4 pick Corban Pierzynski) but if the SR's all lived up to their potential (hasn't happened yet), they could take the division.

Forecast:  Good D, power offense, and of course I love a quirky pitching alignment.  

Prediction: 85-77

Austin Apocalypse

blanch13

SEA 44: 61-101 

Offseason:  It's a whole new team again.  Promoted C Mike Fassero and P's Bud Benson and Darren Harris.  Notable FA signings included hitter Wille Germen and SP's Dan Gabriel, Pedro Nesbitt and Justin Dunham.  Traded for CF William Magee, and in 20 games they'll promote former #1 pick Ryan Norman and 2B prospect Alex Moreno.

Offense/Defense:  After a disappointing (61 wins) S45 and facing a 70-win mwr, they're flushing defense to try to rack up more runs.  They demoted their best defensive catcher (Stan Treadway) in favor of a Fassero/Eugenio Martin platoon, installed Germen as the 1B (ala Scott Hatteberg in Moneyball) and will go with Phil Kim in RF (against RHP) again.  With LF Peaches Eierman expecting to improve on an .801-OPS rookie season and Norman moving in at 3B in 20 games, they'll improve a lot on last year's 652 runs.  How much will the defensive dropoff hurt?

Pitching:  They have 8 guys competing for 5 rotation spots - if 4 can get off to good starts Austin will be pretty happy. At this point the bullpen is purely an afterthought.

Forecast:  Season 44's 75 wins now looks like a false flag after last year's collapse.  But a good chunk of their young talent is now on the ML roster.

Another 3-way tie?  Why not, I can't see a clear winner here.  Austin might make it interesting for awhile but is still a season or 2 away.

Prediction:  82-80

Division Race:

1.  Jackson      

2.  Houston     

3.  San Juan   

4.  Austin       

Season 46 NL West Preview

San Francisco Fog

pfontaine

SEA 45:  110-52, Won Division, advanced to WS and won

Offseason:  The champs had a couple of FA losses but re-signed P Al Benitez and  3B Carlos Volquez, and also signed CF Javy Valenzuela and RP Al Sucre.  Not sure who'll win the CF competition between Valenzuela and incumbent Hipolito Francisco, but it's sure nice to have 2 guys like that for CF.

Offense/Defense:  The Fog returns the NL's top offense - 855 runs scored last year.  It's not a huge power team but they pack the bases and just keep making contact.  RF Del Perez (.329/31/94), 1B Francisco Guerrero (.302/19/86), 3B Chip Puffer (.317/17/112), and C Giomar Almadova (.284/27/91) are the big cogs in the attack.  Defensively they're among the best in the NL with a .988 Fielding & and 86/26 +/-.  SS Avisail Silva (33+ plays and a Gold Glove) is the heart of the defense but Puffer was right there with 18 + plays last year.

Pitching:  Kirk Marks was beyond superb last year - 24-4 with a 1.84 ERA - in winning his 3rd Cy Young.  The #2-4 starters were all under 3.65 ERA as the staff led the league with a 3.30 ERA.  The sneaky-good bullpen features (led by Jeimer Pena - 11 wins, 13 saves, 2.06 ERA in 105 innings) features hurlers with especially good pitches.

Forecast:  Everyone's back - the only question is if they can dominate like they did last year.  Marks can only go down from last year's performance, and Puffer had his best season, but I can't see them falling much off 110 wins.

Prediction:  108-54

Honolulu Luaua Dogs

rockydawg07

SEA 45:  87-75

Offseason:  The Dogs had their hands full in free agency with numerous tough calls.  Ultimately they brought back Fernando Delgado, Darwin Thornburg, and Brad Terry but let Mark Cromer and CF Javy Valenzuela walk.  They signed Tanner Stynes to fill Valenzuela's shoes and added a slew of pitchers plus Brooks Bell on the blockbuster max deal.

Offense/Defense:  Bell (.307/31/98 in his last non-Colorado season) certainly adds more pop to an already-pretty-good offense.  The question is who goes where with Bell, Hooks Gose, Boone Howard and Wayne Langerhans looking for RF, LF and 3B time.  Maybe Langerhans moves to 2B, where he'd be a defensive upgrade over Nathan Lindblom (seems well-suited to a 1B, LF, RF utility role with occasional 2B stints).  They should beat last year's 707 runs and could be among the NL's top HR teams.  The change to Sterns in CF will keep the Dogs at the top of the NL defensive charts.

Pitching:  Honolulu doesn't really have an ace, but they have 6 interchangeable SP's who are all pretty good.  Sterns (13-11, 3.38) and DeSoto (16-11, 3.44) were the standouts last year; this year it could be Thornburg and Waters * with a small chance that nobody stands out.  The bullpen isn't up to the rotation's quality, acting more like a solid mopup group than late-inning stoppers.  It will be interesting to see Marcos Presley put the finishing touches on a HOF career at 41.

Forecast:  Tough defensively, stingy rotation, improved offense.  History suggests a down season, but I think they're too good to back up.

Prediction: 92-70

Scottsdale Cardinals

finnski

SEA 45: 66-96

Offseason:  Had some FA losses - Howie Lee, RP Omar Nicasio, SP Eli Izquierdo (who's probably at the end of a fine career), Al Sucre.  It's a youth movement though and time to embrace it.  A couple of significant FA SP signings in Bobby Timmons and Cesar Alomar.  Traded SP Ronald Hoover for a pair of youngsters.

Offense/Defense:  The offense isn't a pretty site these days (595 runs S45).  LF Trever Fick (.835 OPS last year) is a steady producer, and C Lee Hanson provides occasional pop (.854 OPS S45).  Their 3rd-highest OPS by a fulltime player last year was Howie Lee's .722 and Howie's now in Vegas.  To make matters worse, all that non-hitting doesn't buy them much defense - they posted a fairly-leaky 107 errors last year although their +/- plays were a respectable 70/27.

Pitching:  Their staff kept them above the mwr last year and is likely to again.  Billy Walker (4.33) is always good for 225 decent innings, and I think Timmons will be a solid #2.  Jerome Mathis certainly has the talent to put together at least a handful of 12-win, 4.00 ERA seasons - if he could pull that off this year it would go a long way to notching up to 70-75 wins.

Forecast:  It's just tough to win games scoring 595 runs, so they'll rely on pitching again.  It's gonna be another long rebuilding year in Scottsdale.

Prediction:  68-94

Salt Lake City Trappers

palet99

SEA 45:  72-90

Offseason:  Lost SP Bobby Timmons to FA but otherwise the defections were pretty harmless.  Engineered a couple of nice budget free agent deals with C Michael Sturdevant and SP Pablo Rosado.  Promoted SP Elrod Parkers (20 of the 23 players currently on the ML roster are 27 or younger).

Offense/Defense:  There's no particular theme other than "youth" to the Trappers' offense - they could use more power but get on base better than you'd expect with a 72-win team.  Benny Cordova (.273/23/104) had a solid season and will likely be the bellcow again, but I doubt he (or many of the current position players) will be around when they contend.

Pitching:  Salt Lake has used the same plan with its pitching - promote from  within and squeeze by the mwr with a cheap squad.  Stefen Balentien was the only chunker who could be considered "standout" last year at 10-13, 3.39 ERA, but others (Rosado? Parkers? Who knows?) could and someone will this season.

Forecast:  It's a simple (and solid) plan:  keep payroll cheap ($14MM for ML players), draft well and grab a top UFA while holding off the mwr.  They're put together a good enough roster to do that latter, and done it cheaply enough to do the former.

Prediction: 71-91

Division Race

1.  San Francisco     

2.  Honolulu               

3.  Salt Lake         

4.  Scottsdale