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Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Predicted Season 45 Standings

NL North	W	L	GB	AL North	W	L	GB
New York	91	71	-	Kansas City	101	61	-
Helena	75	87	16	Philadelphia	92	70	9
Toronto	74	88	17	Milwaukee	90	72	11
Vancouver	65	97	26	Montreal	64	98	37

NL East	W	L	GB	AL East	W	L	GB
Jacksonville	102	60	-	Toledo	91	71	-
Columbus	91	71	11	Durham	83	79	8
Dover	73	89	28	Boston	71	91	20
Cleveland	60	102	42	Pittsburgh	58	104	33

NL South	W	L	GB	AL South	W	L	GB
Jackson	86	76	-	Montgomery	104	58	-
San Juan	85	77	1	New Orleans	86	76	18
Houston	80	82	6	Richmond	83	79	21
Austin	76	86	10	Florida	77	85	27

NL West	W	L	GB	AL West	W	L	GB
San Francisco	94	68	-	Las Vegas	88	74	-
Honolulu	80	82	14	Colorado	82	80	6
Scottsdale	70	92	24	Oakland	78	84	10
Salt Lake City	63	99	31	Los Angeles	78	84	10

Season 45 Trade Thoughts, volume 1

The Jacksonville Fake ID’s trade Tony Arias to the New Orleans Voodoo for Julio Cano, Quinn Lewis, and cash.

A typical “makes sense for both sides trade. Arias is the best and youngest arm in the deal, but is also a low innings starter. Cano is almost as good can go much deeper into the game, but is old and expensive. Lewis a decent ML relief arm with low service time, but not a needle mover. So why did Jacksonville do it? Because they have washed out the playoffs each of the last two years because of inadequate starting pitching. Cano fills a very specific need and immediately becomes their game 1 starting pitcher (I’m just going to assume the Fake ID’s make the playoffs). For the Voodoo you have to love the deal. Any time you get the best player and free up a ton of cap space for years you have to call it a win.

The Philadelphia Erffdoggs trade Brandon Francoeur to the Pittsburgh Dream Eaters for Alex Sanchez

Ironically, I write about this all Pennsylvania trade on my way to Pennsylvania (have no worries, I’ll be back in Alaska soon). This is trade that clearly accomplishes exactly what both sides hoped it would. Sanchez is an excellent short innings reliever, 100% capable of closing. I would expect an ERA in the 2.80-3.10 range in a typical environment. Francoeur is an aspiring second baseman, still just 19 who can hit. I have my doubts that he will ever be a league average glove at 2B, but will be above average at LF. Doesn’t matter though, because he’s going to hit. At 2B he’ll be a perineal threat to win the silver slugger and at LF he will exceed league average. On balance I like the trade for Pittsburgh better than Philly, but both got exactly what they wanted.

The Columbus Buckeyes trade Ahmad Gibson to the Philadelphia Erffdoggs for Bud Watson and cash.

A fair, but fairly meh trade. The Buckeyes add a 4^th starter to the end of their rotation or perhaps a solid long reliever. The Erffdoggs pick up borderline catcher with a solid bat. Gibson is probably better as a DH, but at DH he’s no longer a plus bat and at catcher he is a plus bat, but is a minus glove. He’s reasonably young and still may improve enough to make the position question answerable. Totally logical trade, but not a needle mover.

The Austin Apocalypse trade Francis Verrett and Jesus Guapo to the Boston Beer Bellies for Phil Kim

Not going to lie, I kicked the tires on Phil Kim myself. While completely positionless and low durability, he can hit for days and is a terrific bat off the bench/DH when you need him. Smart NL teams looking to win the world series often have guys like Kim just to play DH for them in the world series and in interleague games. For an AL team his durability is a real liability, but not for an NL team.

Boston got a lottery ticket for Kim, which is fine for a limited guy like Kim (plus clear 4 mil of cap room). Guapo is a DITR who already is a Long B kind of guy. With 2 more years in the minors he could be a 3^rd starter. At 22 and with being a DITR the improvement is unpredictable, which is why I often trade away guys like Guapo, but if you figure Kim is all he gave up then a 50/50 shot at 3^rd starter is a pretty good deal. At worst he’s a ML’er albeit a Long A kind of guy. Verrett is unlikely to ever play a meaningful ML game.

Monday, December 2, 2019

Season 45 NL North Preview

Helena Hot Heads
dbreez
SEA 44: 62-100

Season 44 In Brief: A third rebuilding season for Helena. They actually had a competent ML offense with 758 runs (8th in the NL), sparked by slugging CF Lorenzo Rosario (.276/49/119) and vR C Chris Bruske (.308/32/69). They also led the NL in homers (277), so you can guess how the pitching fared. Yep, 5.25 ERA - 15th. More important to the rebuilding effort, they added IFA Jose Encarnacion and #7 overall Bump Graveman.

Season 45 Preseason: Nothing of note in this year's offseason on the FA front for this very young team. They'll go with last year's roster plus Rule Fiver Richie Wilkins, who isn't going to on-base very well but will add to the longball fireworks and will make some flashy plays at 1B.

Forecast: Much of the same for 1 more year (note: their mwr this year is 63) as they build up to next year's promotions of Encarnacion and Season 43 IFA Audry Rojas. That'll give them a talented 1-2 SP nucleus to go with the power lineup and they'll be off and running for a decade. 66 Wins.

Player Watch: Rosario has had more homers and RBI (generally a lot more) than the NL CF Silver Slugger winners (Javy Valenzuela in S42, Chico Astacio in S43, and Einar Nunez in S44) in each of his first 3 seasons.

Vancouver Chin Music
TXLnghrn
SEA 44: 58-104

Season 44 In Brief: Another rebuilding team with a competent (724 runs, 11th in NL) offense but hopeless pitching. Part-timers like Micheal Butera (.860 OPS) and Abraham Norman (.852 OPS) held the offense together while Hong-Chih Park hit the DL yet again. They got a few decent relief innings from some of their geezer free-agents-to-be, but in general the staff was a conflagration of gas-cannery.

Season 45 Preseason: Very interested to see how TXLnghrn starts turning this ship. They lost a few FA's but none that matter. And as expected, the FA contracts were largely of the budget variety...SP Oswaldo Sardinha's 1 year for $4.4MM being a bit of an exception. They have promoted one significant prospect, SS Al Escobar. Escobar is a promising power-hitting SS who was the #8 pick in season 39 and got a couple hundred ML AB's in season 43. Mark him down for ROY watch.

Forecast: No doubt a deep rebuilding year, although the lineup will see some highlights and keep the record respectable. We might see power prospect Eric White in 20 games, although I'd expect their best pitching prospect, Jerad Jones (S43 #3 overall) to get a full year in AAA. 60 wins.

Player Watch: Keep that eye out for Al Escobar in the ROY race.

Toronto St. Pats
bluebaran
SEA 44: 69-93

Season 44 In Brief: The pitching is what kept the Pats respectable last season. The staff's 4.23 ERA was 12th, but only .17 runs out of 8th. The hitters only managed 602 runs, so that should be the focus this year. 24 1-run wins certainly helped. That was Season 2 of the bluebaron rebuild, and as you'll see things are about to start looking up.

Season 45 Preseason: They had the usual not-very-significant comings and goings of a rebuilding team, but the big offseason news is the elevation of Royce Jordan to the big club. Jordan was the #1 pick in the draft just 2 seasons ago (Season 43) out of the University of Tennessee. He's just what you want in a college draftee: 2 seasons to being a big-time ML impact. At 6'7", he's reminiscent of a rangy slugger of long ago, King Kong Kingman, but he has much better contact and on-base skills. To top it off he looks ready to be a prolific base thief.

Forecast: Jordan and 1B Philip Kennedy present a pretty formidable 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup. LF Alex Kim seems to have an even-year-bad and odd-year good pattern going - let's hope it holds up. Ryan in CF has been better-than-adequate, but the offensive talent falls off the table after that. More bats needed, but they'll outscore last year's 602. Chris Houston is the only arm they can really count on, so their pitching is anybody's guess. If it implodes their win total could back up, but their mwr is only 55 this year and I don't think that's in play. More runs, probably a little worse pitching...65 wins.

New York Skyscrapers
tytabs
SEA 44: 86-76, won Division, advanced to NLCS and lost to Jackson

Season 44 In Brief: With the arrival of all those prospects, NY won the Division again, but really made a statement in the playoffs, beating 106-game winners Columbus and Jacksonville. With so much talent coming to the fore it's hard to single out 1 or 2 standouts, but I'd point to RF Ralph Clancy (.330/28/88 and his 2nd Silver Slugger) and SP Clinton Walters (14-13, 3.14 ERA in 237.2 IP).

Season 45 Preseason: NY kept the powder dry with only a couple of budget FA signings: P's Glen Coste and Mark Cloud. It's a diverse lineup with surprisingly good power - 3B Chen is the only one with 40-HR power, but they get lots of 10-15 HR's from platooners and infielders. Top-to-bottom it's strength is contact and OBP. They'll be in the top 5 in runs scored for a lot of years. If there's a criticism of the staff it's that they don't have a true #1 SP, although you'd have to call the projected rotation of Walters/Holland/Purcell/Seaver/Cloud a strength. Sam Teagarden is the undisputed bullpen ace - he's been used in a traditional setup A role but I think they could get 160-170 IP out of him if used differently.

Forecast: As currently constructed, this is probably a 94-win team again (their 30 1-run losses last year pulled them well below their expected total). But the intriguing possibility is trading some of their bounty of young talent for a true ace. Stay tuned at the deadline. For now, 94-68.

Player Watch: Going into his age 25 season, Chen already has 156 HR's. Watch for him to be back over 40 this year.

Division Race:
1. New York 94-68
2. Helena 66-96
3. Toronto 65-97
4. Vancouver 60-102

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Season 45 AL West Preview

Oakland A's
ACEROTHSTEIN
SEA 44: 80-82

Season 44 In Brief: Kind of a consolidation year, the first of the ACEROTHSTEIN era in Oakland. They had some decent offensive performances by Darren Haren (.266/33/107), Domingo Marmol (.257/32/97) and Alcides Santana (.287/27/87), but the pitching was bad (5.50 ERA) in a spacious stadium. 80-82 with a load of aging vets on 1-year contracts...not a bad placeholder season.

Season 45 Preseason: Wholesale turnover, although I can't say I think they'll miss any of the FA dapartees. They filled some of the holes with late - FA economy guys again (RP Antonio Key, C Alfonso Mangual, RP Myles Sweeney) - but also dug a little deeper to sign more significant talents like DH Tim Jeter and OF Dallas Sever . They've also brought up at least 3 rookies to start the season.

Forecast: Improved hitting with the additions of Jeter and Sever. In their ballpark, the pitching could certainly improve...at worst I think they'll be a little better than last year. How about 85 wins? 85-77

Player Watch: All-in-all I think CF Peter Stockton is their best player. Not likely to make an MVP ballot, but could be an All-Star.

Colorado House of Horrors
werniss
SEA 44: 72-90

Season 44 In Brief: Despite the usual otherworldly offensive numbers (Doug Duncan .341/65/196, Brooks Bell .341/43/130, Frank Graham .290/56/139), the HoH failed to crack .500 for the 3rd straight season. The pitching, which is normally a lot better than the ballpark makes it look (CRAZY stat: in Season 43, the staff had a 3.88 ERA on the road, 2nd in the AL. Last year, same stat was 5.10 - 12th). Here's another one that tells you how bad the pitching was: Sam Stock and Juan Martinez were the only 2 pitchers on the staff with ERA's UNDER 6.

Season 45 Preseason: Colorado lost 5 aging pitchers and OF Greg Ward, who looks like he's done at age 36, 7 HR's short of 500. They countered with more aging pitchers, although I think Tomas Carrara and Marcos Presley (even at age 40) will be upgrades. Defensive whiz (95 range, 90 glove) Taylor Barkley will be an interesting addition whether he takes 2B or CF (probable).

Forecast: I'd bet the house their pitching will be much improved this season. Their 2 best pitchers, Martinez and Stock, haven't lost anything on their ratings even entering their age 38 and 36 seasons. Is Mark Pettitte really a 6.60 ERA pitcher, even with half his games in Coors (He was 4.72 on the road last year btw)? I think not. You know the offense will score at least 950 runs, maybe 1000. 84-78

Player Watch: If Duncan can it 65 HR's playing in Coors, I'd think Brooks Bell could as well. If he gets close to that, he probably makes the MVP ballot, although my sense is that COL players get discounted severely by voters. Sam Stock was used more in a traditional setup role last year and the team that desperately needed pitching left 50 of his innings in the bullpen. Let's see him start every 3rdd day or something.

Los Angeles Motley Crue
iceman67
SEA 44: 91-71, Wild Card, advanced to ALDS and lost to Montgomery

Season 44 In Brief: A fine season for the Crue - their biggest win total since Season 26 and a 15-win jump from Season 43. Improved by 68 runs (thank-you career year from Dillon Mateo - .335/25/114), ERA improved from 4.50 to 4.21, and their already-stupendous +/- plays even improved from 113/24 to 116/15.

Season 45 Preseason: Mateo departed for a big FA contract in Kansas City, so former RF Clint Susac takes over at 1B and Benito Manuel becomes the likely RF. Other than that, this is largely the same roster as Season 44.

Forecast: Can they put it all together again? It's a tall order, especially when your best hitter snubs you for more $$. I think their pitching can repeat, and probably has a small chance of improving - other than Harold Willis (11-9, 2.80 ERA), none of their SP's had a terribly out-of-character year. But those 825 runs will be hard to do again with this lineup. We might see Glen Davey and Ernest Thompson early if the offense struggles. I'm predicting a small falloff to 87-75.

Las Vegas Mongeese
jcairns
SEA 44: 93-69, Won Division, advanced to ALDS and lost to Kansas City

Season 44 In Brief: 2nd straight Division title for the Mongeese, who only scored 813 runs (10th) but expertly mixed and matched pitchers (12 different P's started games, and Maicer Candelario led in IP with 155.2) to the tune of a 4.02 ERA (3rd). Their .989 Fielding % and 70/20 +/- helped out the pitchers a lot.

Season 45 Preseason: They were hit hard in FA, especially on the staff (most notably the aging but effective Marcos Presley and Felipe Garza). They signed Emil Ontiveros, Chad Reid and Yimi Arcia to fill the void and I think they succeeded in replacing those lost quality innings. They also lost primary DH Roberto Almora (topped the team in OPS with .860) and countered well with Yamil Ibanez. The farm system continues to produce - Tim Blake (S39 #25 overall) settles in at LF for his first full season. It was a challenging offseason and they came through it with flying colors.

Forecast: How does this pitching staff do it? It's somewhat of a pitcher's park but not extremely so. They weren't particularly lucky in 1-run games last year - actually they were pretty unlucky at 14-18. And last year's ERA doesn't look like a fluke given Season 43's 4th-place finish. I'm a skeptic but maybe jcairns has some magic dust I'm ignorant of. I'm more bullish on the lineup although I think they're a bat short somewhere - C, LF or CF. Obviously they get huge relative production at 2B, 3B and SS, but I think they need a bit more to return to S43's 880-run level (a year in which they got big contributions from a 37-yo Joe Wilk at $1.1MM) and a 35-yo Treni Cruz at $2.2MM). I'm just not sold on the magic dust theory of their pitching, so I'm saying 88 wins.

Division Race
1. Las Vegas 88-74
2. Los Angeles 87-75
3. Oakland 85-77
4. Colorado 84-78

Lucious, a 4-team race right out of the box.