Sunday, December 6, 2020

Season 49 NL West Preview

 

rockydawg07

Season 48
68 wins and a 3rd-place finish.  They did post some unusual activity on the awards banquet circuit.  B.C. Querecuto  (one of their 2 best P's last year with 12 wins and a 3.51 ERA in 194 IP) also won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for NL pitchers.  Quite the triple threat.  Damian Li also picked up the catcher Gold Glove.

Offseason

Honolulu was pretty quiet on the acquisition front.  They essentially trade away aging 5-time all-star 3B (now LF'er) Wayne Langerhans to Austin for aging 10 time all-star RP Bralin Kohn.  If it was real trade you'd rather have Kohn who is still an average ML reliever, where as Langerhand is a solid bench piece.  Either way, neither player moves the needle. 

Outlook/Forecast

The Luau Dogs have been in decline 4 seasons running and haven't made the playoffs in a decade.  
Their rotations is very strong at the top with the aforementioned Querecuto and Tucker Hood.  Also, Andrew Lane is terrifically old, but is still an effective closer.  The trouble is all of their high quality pieces are on the mound.  Not only did they finish last in runs scored, they did so by 37 runs.  Their highly effective pitching staff was the only one in the top 10 to finish with a losing record.  I see no sign that the slow disintegration of the franchise will not continue and predict 65 wins.


finnski

Season 48
62 wins and 4th place, which I guess officially declares a rebuild.  3B Cameron Sears (.282/1/89) topped the hitters, while RP Jair Martinez (7 wins, 3.78 ERA in 97 IP) turned in an outstanding pitching season.

Offseason

It was an off-season of apathy for Scottsdale.  They added no players through free agency nor trade.  This would be understandable and perhaps even expected for a team with the 2nd pick normally, but the Cardinals boast and over 80 million dollar payroll with only one real star.  Scottsdale appears to be rotating around the the event horizon of the MWR exclusion with no visible effort to escape.

Outlook/Forecast

Scottsdale's calling card is their defense where they are average and likely to stay that way.  They are bad at scoring runs and have a well below average pitching staff.  Their one highly tradeable piece is #2 on a good staff/#3 on a great one Jerome Mathis who also has a manageable contract.  Cameron Sears, Francisley Pizzaro, and James Appel are all young, cheap, and ML average and there for could be helping to build something, but the only piece in the minors that is a plus talent shouldn't even be there at all.  26 year old, 2-time ML all-star Yovani Avila is being punished at AAA for some reason.   He's the 2nd best player in the franchise behind Mathis.  I expect the Cardinals to be out via MWR with 52 wins.


canadadry

Season 48
72 wins and a 2nd-place finish in their first season under canadadry.  LF Glenn Davey (.259/40/88) and CF Darrell Ryan (.290/25/90) sparked the offense and Albert Wilson (17-8, 2.63 ERA in 191 IP) booked a stellar campaign on the pitching side.

Offseason

In their second season under Canadadry the Altitude had a busy of season picking up solid, young 1B at Wiki Figueroa (23, .276/27/69 on a trash team) for middle-of-the-rotation pitching prospect Rondo Monroe (fair trade).  They also acquired RF'er Timothy Blake, who has no bat to speak of, but should win the gold glove in right for a nice young 2B prospect in Christian Zhang and just-a-guy SP Luis Lorenzo.  I'd probably rather Zhang, but Blake is more useful this season and it is not a franchise crusher.  In free agency the most important thing the Altitude did was was retain Junior Burawa.  While not all-star, he is above average in all aspects of the game and came at a very fair price considering he is still pretty young.  They also signed terrific setup man Daki Chang at a price that would have been good value at twice the cost.  

Outlook/Forecast

Arizona did nothing that lights my hair on fire, but they seemed to have improved their hitting a little, their fielding a bit, and their relief pitching significantly and of those little improvements matter.  My best guess is 76 wins, but I feel like I am more likely too low than too high on them.  







pfontaine

Season 48
Rallied to win the Division easily despite losing prime FA signee Philip Kennedy for the season in Spring Training.  Del Perez did his usual on-base wizardry (.328/25/79, .411 OBP) and B.J. Kirby (.319/37/120) produced one of his best all-round seasons.  Among the pitchers, Esmerling Martin (16-9, 2.84 in 218 IP) spun another brilliant year

Offseason

It was a busy off season for the 9 consecutive season division champ.  Gone is 2-time all-star and snack enthusiast Chip Puffer (for a less talented version of the same player Fergie Schmidt, young, cheap league average catcher Shawn Stein, and back-of-the-rotation arm Louis Andrews.  The deal does save the Fog about 3 million too, but I'd rather be the Mounties.  Their second deal (also with the Mounties-was this a 5 for 2 and I just missed it?) terrific first baseman Francisco Guerrero for competent, but below average CF Wil Newman and career minor leaguer Corban Simpson.  This deal saved the Fog nearly 7 million which as to be the reason for the deal.  Having saved 12 million is questionable trades, the Fog then went work in free agency.  First they added 3rd starter Luther Padden at 5/64.  I like the player, but not at that number.  Enrique Bastardo came over at reasonable 1/1/6.  However, gone is former Cy Young and borderline HoF'er Kirk Marks who was past his prime a year ago.

Outlook/Forecast

I started talking about the Fog's decline before it was cool and now they seem to have embraced it by doing the things that a team that is starting to build its scouting department back up do.  The scouting department stinks for the first couple of seasons so there is no point in in even soft tanking so you start by signing bonus laden deals (Patten) and trading away guys who are good, but a little over salaried (Puffer) to bring down your commitments in future seasons while still staying competitive.  Pfontaine is terrific and has won 3 WS's in recent memory so knows what he is doing.  He knows that half of his division isn't even trying and the team that is (Arizona) has a while to go before they are even a .500 team.  Therefore he has the running room to start rebuilding while still trying to squeeze a division or two.  I thought they were an 86 win team that got unlucky and only won 83 last season.  This season they are a legit 83 win team.  They are declining, but I do not think the record will show it this season. 

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