Season 49 AL North Preview

 

Madison Mashers 

coach34

Season 48 must have been a bit bewildering for Mashers fans, as the team continued to play well  (84 wins) but fell to 4th in the blistering AL North.  Gold-Glove CF Michael Esquerra was the only major award-winner, but they also got exceptional seasons from 1B Heath  Dickerson (.307/28/102) and RP Tiny James (2.75 ERA in 108 IP).

Offseason
Went defense and pitching in FA with CF Michael Esquerra, SS Wayne Diaz and RP Jacob Barker.  Added 2B Chico Astacio and C Stan Treadway via trades.  Promoted SP/LR Erv Person (#1 overall pick in Season 46).

Outlook/Forecast
Thanks to Domingo Marmol's hot start (.383/8/league-leading 37 RBI), the Mashers are enjoying 5th place in runs scored.  The lineup is a bit more on-base than power  ( 2nd in walks, t13th in HR's) - most of the position players are well into double-digit walks already.  I figured Heath Dickerson would've become a liability by now but it looks like he'll hold up just fine through his age 36 season.  The staff's ERA has edged up to 4.55 this year - pretty dangerous territory if you 're gunning for the playoffs.  The bullpen has been outstanding - 5 are under 3.70 ERA and Benny Lira has converted 9 of 10 save opportunities.  But 4 of the 5 starters are over 4.00 ERA - they'll need to fix that. 

An encouraging start by the lineup and they're still in 4th.  I expect then to equal or surpass last year's 84 wins and be in wild card contention.

Kansas City Jayhawks

dakar

Season 48 was both dominating with a World-leading 112 wins and disappointing with a Round 2 playoff exit.  Jayhawks were everywhere on the awards banquet circuit this off-season with Joaquin Merced winning his 2nd MVP, Edgard Mendoza taking home the FOY, Merced winning both the 1B Silver Slugger and Gold Glove, and Darren Haren chipping in a RF Golf Glove.

Offseason
Had a few FA departures, most notably SP James Haney and C Melky Osuna.  Had an active free agency, highlighted by the signing of RF Willie Taylor.

Outlook/Forecast
Adding Taylor, in my opinion, gives KC the AL's best lineup.  If you asked every GM to list the top 5 superstars in Hobbs, Joaquin Merced would be on everyone's list.  And he's got lots of help.  They really do have Grade A or B hitters at every position except maybe SS and CF (and those aren't terrible).  And by the way, this lineup makes up the AL's best defense as well.  The staff occupies its usual position at #1 in the ERA rankings.  The 1/1A starters - Glaus and Castillo - have each won Cy Youngs.  I guess 39-yo Willie Matos is #3...he and Jarek Winston are doing the job so far.  If there's any vulnerability here it's with those back-end  starters.  Closer Edgard Mendoza is 10-for-10 on save opportunities this year, and an insane 253-for-274 for the career.

Yeah, you might beat these guys in a series, like in last year's playoffs, but they'll be there again.  It's a really good division but KC will win it again.

Milwaukee Chedda

Zattack

Season 48 had to be an encouraging campaign for the Cheeseheads.  While their 90 wins was good for just 3rd in the North, they parlayed a Wild Card all the way to the World Series.  Defense dominated their individual awards, with P Yasmani Costilla, SS P.T. Ordaz and LF Benny Montanez earning Gold Gloves.

Offseason
Some pretty big FA holes to fill - 2B Chico Astacio and RP Bo Burrell signed elsewhere and 1B Tanyon Joyner declined to the point of having no offers.  The big FA signing was SP Al Viciedo but Omar Nicasio was a nice low-cost deal.  

Outlook/Forecast
Like a lot of pundits, when I look over a team's pitching staff and see a lot of 37's and 38's in the age column, I get pessimistic about their performance.  But it's not age that produces results, it's ratings.  I tend to forget that.  Hence the Chedda's 3.79 ERA (3rd) featuring the likes of Stan Story (3-0. 1.76 ERA) and Viciedo (3-1, 3.43).  The staff is not without concerns (Mateo Andrus, Al Montgomery) but by and large is clicking along at playoff pace.  The lineup has been about league-average so far, with CF Ronnier Theriot (.323/7/24) providing the surprise boost.  SS P.T. Ordaz (career OPS .559) will not continue on his .328/3/25 pace...I think the offense is going to cool down over the course of the season.

Back to the original comment.  Age doesn't produce results, but ratings decline over a season for 38-yo pitchers.  Factor in the red-hot starts for the normally light-hitting CF and 2B, and you have a candidate for a gradual exit from the race

Philadelphia Erffdoggs

wholck

They join KC in Season 48's "both dominating and disappointing" category.  They won 102 in the regular season - the most since 102 way back in Season 36 - and did it the fun way with 317 homers.  But their season ended early with a 1st-round playoff loss to Las Vegas.  The longball was their calling card with Tony Martin belting 63, Destin Shea 49, and SS Al Escobar 35 en route to a Silver Slugger.

Offseason
Just one significant FA move - signing SS Carlos Mercedes.  LF Einar Nunez and DH Mike Fassero arrived via trade.

Outlook/Forecast
We expect home runs from Philly and that's what we're getting with Shea, Stinnett and Valle all among the league leaders.  The question for the 'dogs offense is always whether they can get on base enough to leverage those longballs into lots of runs.  Last year's .327 OBP was about NL-average and as good enough for a 4th-best 852 runs.  This year, .326 OBP is getting them 6th place in runs.  So far the starting rotation has been the much bigger concern, with only Chad Haynes (4-0, 2.73 ERA) equaling or surpassing his career numbers.  I read this optimistically - they're hangin close to KC with 4/5 of their rotation really sucking.  They'll get better.  Aurelio Duran will get better.  And closer Valdes is a perfect 6-for-6 after last season's uncharacteristic 3.98 ERA.

In Hobb's toughest division, I think the 'doggs are the best bet to both challenge KC and grab a Wild Card.