Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Season 49 NL South Preview

 


Season 48 must have been a mystery for the fandom.  Several of their budding stars found their footing (48 HR's for J.J. Lundquist, for example), and statistically they were actually a bit better than Season 47.  But like division rival Austin the previous year they got unlucky in 1-run games with 31 losses.  On the awards front, CF Shane Williams and RF Lundquist captured Gold Gloves.

Offseason

This year's iteration of the Colt .45s will look an awful lot like last year's iteration of the Colt .45s, as the S49 offseason only saw movement through the exit door. The club said goodbye to fan favorites Julio Cano and Hong-Chih Park and are counting on young, talented core to make a run at the division title.

Outlook/Forecast

Houston boasted one of the strongest pitching staff and defenses in the NL last season and will continue to rely on Diego Alomar and Corbin Pierzynski to devour another 250+ innings each, while a bullpen by committee featuring three sub-3.00 ERA and two sub-1.00 WHIP performers close things down. 

Will an offense that hammered 276 HRs a year ago be able to build on their S48 successes? That will depend on whether we see steps forward from Williams, Lundquist, Danry Moreno and Wilin Cedeno.

By dancing with the girl that brung 'em, as a wise old Texan once probably said, The Colt .45s and owner/manager/janitor pimpbotlove believe their S48 bad luck was an aberration. Sporting the NL's best defense and a top-2 pitching staff, they will make a strong case for a division title.

Prediction: 93-69, 2nd place


Improved to 80 wins in Season 48 but couldn't keep up with the changing of the guard to Austin and Houston.  Vic Diaz paced the pitching staff with 13 wins and a 3.59 ERA in 208 IP, and 2B Al Guzman paced the lineup with a .254/32/69 campaign.

Offseason

San Juan kept the offseason rather simple, bringing in solid and ancient RP Marcell Calixte and moving on from SP Vic Diaz and RP Bernard Shea, who are now roommates in Columbus.

Outlook/Forecast

Veteran Al Guzman and his team leading 32 HRs and 94 runs scored will pace a young offense. The fans hope to see more of young C Ricardo Cabrera, who ripped a slash line of .309/.345/.478 last season in only 132 at bats.

There is plenty of opportunity to shine on the mound as the Padres look to replace over 280 innings from last season. Miguel Juarez and JJ Snell look the most likely to carry the baton.  The addition of Calixte will be very welcome at the back of the bullpen.

Expect a bit of a regression with the loss of Diaz.

Prediction: 76-86, 3rd place


Memphis Knights

Season 48 saw a respectable 79 wins in the 2nd year of rebuilding after 11 straight NL South crowns.  Dennis Boswell (.305/17/70) and Lou Crawford (.247/30/92) - both now departed - led the offense while William Lui (12 saves, 3.12 ERA in 138 IP) and Geraldo Manto (14 wins, 3.47 ERA in 191 IP) were the pitching standouts.

Offseason

There is usually a turbulent season during a rebuild and this could be it for the newly minted Knights.  Gone are 4 key everyday offensive players, who contributed 40.5% of S48 runs scored, 39.6% of HRs, 37.6% of RBI and 52.9% of SBs. The club lost both Willie Matos and William Lui, among the strengths of their pitching staff.

Trades brought in a variety of minor league talent along with top-of-the-lineup 2B Dave Thompson and SP Jose Valdespin, while veteran Mike Darwin and defensive wizard Bartolo Lee joined via FA.

Outlook/Forecast

Despite major departures offensively, the club still returns 3 top starters in Geraldo Manto, Johnny Gardner and FabioReitz.  Their performances will either carry or sink the staff in S49.

 Miguel Castillo, Audy Treanor and ageless wonder Pep Walsh will pace an offense with decent on-base skills but lacking in power.

 

Rebuilding in a division with three strong rivals is a tough task. In year 2 of the rebuild, if Memphis can shed a couple contracts, add some assets and hit the MWR (which their talent indicates they should do easily), this season should be considered a success.


Prediction: 65-97, 4th place



Season 48 looked like the year for Austin.  They cruised through the NL regular season with 111 wins and survived a season-ending knee injury to star 3B Steve Walsh, but fell to eventual Champ Vancouver in the NLCS.  C Gerald Lim was the hitting star (.330/33/104).  On the pitching  side the entire staff was very good boasting 3 15-game winners (Jodie, Alcantara and Hobbes) plus the NL FOY (Byron Huff).

Offseason

It was a relatively busy offseason in Austin. Gone CF Touki Epstein, star setup man Bralin Kohn and swingman Cesar Benevente.  Joining the club are: very rich man Tanner Mlicki, veteran bats Trayce Zoltan, Eugenio Martin and Wayne Langerhans, and relievers Bo Burrell and Jeimer Pena - all of whom are looking to make an impact right away.

Outlook/Forecast

What do you get the squad that wins 111 games? Apparently some upgrades.

Austin doesn't look like slowing down in S49, even before they bring Walsh back into the fold. They'll work to hold off Houston on the arms of aces Chris Osborne and Pat Jodie, the bats of Lim, Darrell Lynn and Reynaldo Martin, and the legs of David Seneca.

Prediction: 105-57, 1st place

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