Season 49 AL North Preview

 

Madison Mashers 

coach34

Season 48 must have been a bit bewildering for Mashers fans, as the team continued to play well  (84 wins) but fell to 4th in the blistering AL North.  Gold-Glove CF Michael Esquerra was the only major award-winner, but they also got exceptional seasons from 1B Heath  Dickerson (.307/28/102) and RP Tiny James (2.75 ERA in 108 IP).

Offseason
Went defense and pitching in FA with CF Michael Esquerra, SS Wayne Diaz and RP Jacob Barker.  Added 2B Chico Astacio and C Stan Treadway via trades.  Promoted SP/LR Erv Person (#1 overall pick in Season 46).

Outlook/Forecast
Thanks to Domingo Marmol's hot start (.383/8/league-leading 37 RBI), the Mashers are enjoying 5th place in runs scored.  The lineup is a bit more on-base than power  ( 2nd in walks, t13th in HR's) - most of the position players are well into double-digit walks already.  I figured Heath Dickerson would've become a liability by now but it looks like he'll hold up just fine through his age 36 season.  The staff's ERA has edged up to 4.55 this year - pretty dangerous territory if you 're gunning for the playoffs.  The bullpen has been outstanding - 5 are under 3.70 ERA and Benny Lira has converted 9 of 10 save opportunities.  But 4 of the 5 starters are over 4.00 ERA - they'll need to fix that. 

An encouraging start by the lineup and they're still in 4th.  I expect then to equal or surpass last year's 84 wins and be in wild card contention.

Kansas City Jayhawks

dakar

Season 48 was both dominating with a World-leading 112 wins and disappointing with a Round 2 playoff exit.  Jayhawks were everywhere on the awards banquet circuit this off-season with Joaquin Merced winning his 2nd MVP, Edgard Mendoza taking home the FOY, Merced winning both the 1B Silver Slugger and Gold Glove, and Darren Haren chipping in a RF Golf Glove.

Offseason
Had a few FA departures, most notably SP James Haney and C Melky Osuna.  Had an active free agency, highlighted by the signing of RF Willie Taylor.

Outlook/Forecast
Adding Taylor, in my opinion, gives KC the AL's best lineup.  If you asked every GM to list the top 5 superstars in Hobbs, Joaquin Merced would be on everyone's list.  And he's got lots of help.  They really do have Grade A or B hitters at every position except maybe SS and CF (and those aren't terrible).  And by the way, this lineup makes up the AL's best defense as well.  The staff occupies its usual position at #1 in the ERA rankings.  The 1/1A starters - Glaus and Castillo - have each won Cy Youngs.  I guess 39-yo Willie Matos is #3...he and Jarek Winston are doing the job so far.  If there's any vulnerability here it's with those back-end  starters.  Closer Edgard Mendoza is 10-for-10 on save opportunities this year, and an insane 253-for-274 for the career.

Yeah, you might beat these guys in a series, like in last year's playoffs, but they'll be there again.  It's a really good division but KC will win it again.

Milwaukee Chedda

Zattack

Season 48 had to be an encouraging campaign for the Cheeseheads.  While their 90 wins was good for just 3rd in the North, they parlayed a Wild Card all the way to the World Series.  Defense dominated their individual awards, with P Yasmani Costilla, SS P.T. Ordaz and LF Benny Montanez earning Gold Gloves.

Offseason
Some pretty big FA holes to fill - 2B Chico Astacio and RP Bo Burrell signed elsewhere and 1B Tanyon Joyner declined to the point of having no offers.  The big FA signing was SP Al Viciedo but Omar Nicasio was a nice low-cost deal.  

Outlook/Forecast
Like a lot of pundits, when I look over a team's pitching staff and see a lot of 37's and 38's in the age column, I get pessimistic about their performance.  But it's not age that produces results, it's ratings.  I tend to forget that.  Hence the Chedda's 3.79 ERA (3rd) featuring the likes of Stan Story (3-0. 1.76 ERA) and Viciedo (3-1, 3.43).  The staff is not without concerns (Mateo Andrus, Al Montgomery) but by and large is clicking along at playoff pace.  The lineup has been about league-average so far, with CF Ronnier Theriot (.323/7/24) providing the surprise boost.  SS P.T. Ordaz (career OPS .559) will not continue on his .328/3/25 pace...I think the offense is going to cool down over the course of the season.

Back to the original comment.  Age doesn't produce results, but ratings decline over a season for 38-yo pitchers.  Factor in the red-hot starts for the normally light-hitting CF and 2B, and you have a candidate for a gradual exit from the race

Philadelphia Erffdoggs

wholck

They join KC in Season 48's "both dominating and disappointing" category.  They won 102 in the regular season - the most since 102 way back in Season 36 - and did it the fun way with 317 homers.  But their season ended early with a 1st-round playoff loss to Las Vegas.  The longball was their calling card with Tony Martin belting 63, Destin Shea 49, and SS Al Escobar 35 en route to a Silver Slugger.

Offseason
Just one significant FA move - signing SS Carlos Mercedes.  LF Einar Nunez and DH Mike Fassero arrived via trade.

Outlook/Forecast
We expect home runs from Philly and that's what we're getting with Shea, Stinnett and Valle all among the league leaders.  The question for the 'dogs offense is always whether they can get on base enough to leverage those longballs into lots of runs.  Last year's .327 OBP was about NL-average and as good enough for a 4th-best 852 runs.  This year, .326 OBP is getting them 6th place in runs.  So far the starting rotation has been the much bigger concern, with only Chad Haynes (4-0, 2.73 ERA) equaling or surpassing his career numbers.  I read this optimistically - they're hangin close to KC with 4/5 of their rotation really sucking.  They'll get better.  Aurelio Duran will get better.  And closer Valdes is a perfect 6-for-6 after last season's uncharacteristic 3.98 ERA.

In Hobb's toughest division, I think the 'doggs are the best bet to both challenge KC and grab a Wild Card.

Season 49 NL North Preview

 

Toronto St. Pats

bluebaran

Season 48
86 wins and a wild card, plus a Cy Young for Jumbo Morris (18-6, 2.77 in 237 IP), a Silver Slugger for RF Royce Jordan (.302/44/108) and a Gold Glove for SS Don Coffey (.988 fielding %, 25-0 good/bad plays).

Offseason
Mostly budget bullpen-building (Ronald Hoover, Enerio Otanez and others), although they did step up a little to sign Glynn Howard.  Acquired RP William Lui from Jackson for S46 IFA Miguel Melo ($500K) and RP Gil Clemens.

Outlook/Forecast
With hot starts by several pitchers, the St. Pats staff is leading the NL in ERA through 26 games.  The lineup is also faring better than last year - 6th in runs compared to 8th last year.  They've been a little unlucky with a .462 winning percentage versus an expected lofty .599.  But they just lost Jordan for 60 games or so and are breaking out the white flag by advertising  Morris, Chris Houston, and  Bud Robbins.  Don't do it, bluebaran!  It's still a contending team that's performing well with only Robbins reaching age-declines.  Robbins will be back later this year with just a couple of points off speed and range...go for it!

Ottawa Mounties

jrcpga

Season 48

Solid 10-win improvement to 78, with promising seasons from SP's Jose Encarnacion and Audry Rojas, plus a 46-HR season from Miguel Fuentes.  

Offseason
6 offseason trades headlined by the acquisition of 1B Francisco Guerrero and 3B Chip Puffer from San Francisco.  These moves combined with last year's promotions of Livan Lee and Jose Encarnacion have vaulted the Mounties into contention.  Also shored up the lineup and defense with the FA signing of Darren Haren.

Outlook/Forecast
You have to like what they've done in the last year.  The lineup was pretty good last year - 5th in runs - and added a top OBP man in Guerrero and solid bats in Puffer and Haren (and they're 3rd in runs so far this year).  Pairing Encarnacion with Audry Rojas at the top of the rotation gives them perhaps the best 1-2 in the division (in a division where everybody's 1-2 is pretty good).  But the rest of the staff is dreadful and will probably keep them out of the playoffs.  Avery May and Jeffrey Anderson both appear to have some  potential but have yet to put it together

New York Skyscrapers

tytabs

Season 48

85 wins but missed the playoffs by 1 game to division rival Toronto).  Got the usual great seasons from Ralph Clancy (.416 OBP), Yao-Lin Chen (43 HRs. 140 RBI), Clinton Waters (15-10, 3.60 in 237 IP) and Marvin Holland (18-7, 3.70 in 231 innings).

Offseason
Looks like the biggest move was a defensive realignment.  Chen moves to LF, where he's now a Silver Slugger + Gold Glove threat.  Alex Kennedy move the 3B (where he's a plus defender and hitter) from SS (where he had 43 errors and bad plays last year), and Jose Rios (a true SS and not a bad hitter) takes over at SS.  3 defensive upgrades.  RP Sam Teagarden moved on to Trenton on a mega-FA deal.  

Outlook/Forecast
Will the defensive shifts make the pitching better?  3.79 ERA so far this  year versus last  year's 4.39, so the early trend looks good (with no apparent effect on the 3rd-ranked offense).  The big question for New York is how the bullpen will hold up without Teagarden.  So far the likes of Bradley, Rivera and Nixon are getting away with it.  If they can keep it up they'll be formidable competition.

Vancouver Chin Music

TXLnghrn

Season 48

Took the Division with 103 wins and rode the magical bat of MVP Jimmy Stairs (.325/59/146) all the way to the Championship.  

Offseason
Signed oft-injured but still dangerous Hong-Chih Park for a backup role and Rodney Roberts for very short relief.  Not many changes needed nor made to a winning formula.

Outlook/Forecast
Stairs has opened the season among the league leaders in HR's and RBI's and is getting plenty of help from CF Harry Mota (.425 OBP),  RF Chick Rosenthal (.306/8/12), and C Odrisamer Cortez (8 HR, 16 RBI).  The pitchers, led by 1/2 starters Ryan Blackley ( 2-2, 2.93 ERA) and Jerad Jones (3-0, 2.87 ERA) are actually a little ahead of last year's pace (3.41 ERA vs. last year's 3.88).

Division Race
This may be our best bet for a real 4-team race...hence the admonitions for Toronto to hang in.  Vancouver has to be considered the favorite, but I think New York's new defense will keep them battling for the top spot all year.  Toronto and it's roster decisions are the wild card...I think they're capable of winning it if they hang in.  Ottawa has the exciting youngsters and is on the ascent, but is another offseason of fixing the staff away from seriously contending.

Season 49 AL East Preview

 

 

Buffalo Ruffalos

gman981981

Season 49

Offseason

Gman had a busy Hot Stove League season, pulling off several trades, mostly to stockpile young talent.

Outgoing, were SPs Stephen Cook, Keith Gray and Nelson Drake, DH Mike Fassero and RF Alex Lewis.  New faces (in the majors) are C Emilio Fox and Setup man George Abraham.  1B Darby Williams was acquired in RuleV and looks to be useful.

Outlook/Forecast

Looks like game 20 will be like Christmas morning in Buffalo.  The current players look to be mostly placeholders for a wave of guys at AAA.  There are some interesting players like Rico "3 True Outcomes" Azocar at DH, a pretty good bat in 1B Shooter Bauer and a couple of good defenders in CF Dolf Adams and SS Gene Sutton.  Otherwise a lot of AAAA player so lets move on to the minors.  Rusty Wood will either play second or move Adams there and take over CF.  I would do the latter and let that 99 range rack up the + plays in CF.  He also has a pretty good bat and will hit 20-25 homers.  LF Otis Hayes is a very good power/average combo.  IB Giomar Ontiveros is similar but a level lower.  Tom Olson, Carlton Franco and Brian Thomas are all SS prospects that project to corner IF/OF players.  None are great hitters, but all should have big league careers.  Shortstops Dwight Sellers and DJ Rodon are legitimate defenders and might make for a good platoon there.  Some fun players there.

The pitching rotation is anchored by Ted Shaw, Anthony Stone and Don Christiansen.  More or less the whole rotation is composed of mid to bottom of the order guys.  Help is on the way from AAA again though.  Innings eater PT Ramirez will probably be the best of the bunch with Darrell Ross chipping in.  In the pen, AJ Sweeney has gone from a waiver pickup to closer.  And he may thrive in the role.  Abraham and Bono Decker get the ball to him, While Fausto Garces and Melky Elias.  In general, the pitching is average to a little below.

A good group of AAA players save Gman from the MWR this year, but there are more on the way for next year.  He is going to be a force in the East by the next couple of seasons are up.  IF the MWR doesn't get him.

Toledo Walleye

pak4427

Season 49

Offseason

Welcome mat out for RP Andres Morlan and SS Al Park.  Don't let the door hit you in the a$$ to SP Paul Kinney, CF JD Crocker and SS Alfonso Thomas.

Outlook/Forecast

Any team with 2 hitting anchors, like 3B Alex Reid and RF Donald Ritz are pretty likely to be contenders.  Both guys can mash.  With guys like CF Garabez Espinosa, C Bernie Guzman  and 1B Napoleon Rogers in support,  Toledo's lineup is pretty formidable.  A pretty good CF, Bill Treadway can't even break the lineup.  Look for them to improve on last year's above average numbers.  Jimmie Noesi, is a great contact/speed guy in AAA who is about ready to be called up if there is a need at 1B or LF.  

When it comes to pitching, Toledo has a life size Paul McKinney shaped hole in the rotation.  Andy Cobb was an OK number two starter, but he is no ace.  Ted Buckley, Santiago Fuentes and Jose Aceves  back him up in the rotation with various hopes of being a number 2 or 3 starter.  The bullpen is equally average or below.  Harry Armas has been promoted to the closer role.  He has some quality attributes, but is in trouble if he has to face many lefties.  Newcomer Morlan, Peter Yosida, Joe Lynn and Chi-Chi Velez are all ML caliber, but not especially high quality.  Basically the pitching is pretty likely to let down a good offense.  At least C Polin Martin's 91 PC can help out when he plays.

Boston Beer Bellies

torrone

Season 49

A pretty boring offseason in Boston....much like the rest of Torrone's life I suspect.  SP David Rosado was traded for 1B Blake Kohlscheen, a pretty decent power hitter who should really like Boston.  Other than that, nothing that looks to affect the Big League squad.

Outlook/Forecast  Any team in Boston should be able to score some runs, and this team will do just fine in that regard.  No big stars, but some solid bats.  With rookie slugger Moises Tavarez  handling 1B, They also have Wilking Guerrero's nice glove at short and Melvin Lloyd at 3B With Ricardo Castro at 2B.  This had me scratching my head a bit, as Lloyd would made a very good 2B and Castro would be better moved to RF.  Francisco Telis is the guy who should really be manning third.  All in all, a good position group, with Tavarez looking like a potential All-Star if he can loft enough fly balls over the Green Monster.  The OF doesn't look very inspiring on paper,   Youngster Dane Chirino and Darin Gil will get time in the corner spots around Gold Glove CF Alberto Calles.  No much pop from the first two, and next to none from Calles, who is the kind of guy who makes me sad.  I want his glove out there so bad, but is the wiffle bat worth it?  Tomas Bastardo is a good catcher and Kohlsheen will do just fine at DH.

Jerrod Gillaspie, Yohan Lugo, Jesus Guapo, Mycal Shumpert and Russell Howell make up the rotation.  All are solid, but most project around a #3 SP.  George Griffin is about as good as any of them, but he has started out great as a setup man.  Look for him to move in to replace any starters that falter.  In the pen, rubber armed Phillip Adams can be inked in as a solid 100 appearances.  John Kang, Enrique Diaz and Adys Valdivia anchor the back end of a closer-less pen.

Trenton Traders

gogogadget

Season 49

Offseason  Big time changes in Trenton this year.  gogogadget had plenty of budget and really cleaned up in FA with a good class to choose from.  Paul Kinney, Sam Teagarden and Julio Cano are aging but still among the best pitchers in Hobbs.  3B Kenny Miller is also a fine acquisition, and Touki Epstein is still a solid OF. .Among his free agent losses, the only one that is likely to hurt significantly is DH Bo Stewart, but his removal allows Cayones to move to DH.  Third baseman Charles Lorraine, C Eugene Martin and pitchers Diego Romo and Paul Tanaka were all pretty replacable.

Outlook/Forecast  The offense starts with C Yasiel Cayones.  His MVP days are likely over, but he still swings a potent power bat.  He is well supported by Miller, Epstein, SS Yorman Martin, 2B Brandon Francoeur, 1B Engel Bastardo and RF Joey Levis.  This was probably the top offense in the AL last year leading in OPS, HR and Runs scored, and they improved incrementally.  The efense will probably be below average overall, but they can score enough, and their staff is good enough to make that a minor problem.  

Paul Kinney becomes the immediate staff ace.  Although it makes me wince to think of paying a 39 year old version of him $15M/year, he is still a great pickup.  Cano is still a fine pitcher and Vasco Alonso makes a much better fit as a #3 SP vs being an ace.  Odrisamer Balboa and Gerald Gilheeney combine tandem starters to round out the 4 man staff,  Teagarden combines with Jaime Addison to make a great 1-2 punch to finish games.  Rookie Aurelio Gomez is the main bridge reliever and should be a good one one he gets acclimated to The Show,

AL East Conclusion:  I really like Trenton's chances.  They should dominate the division and look like a WS team to me.  Boston should be over .500 and be a dark horse wild card challenger.  Toledo will edge out Buffalo for third.

Torrone's First Wish Comes True!

 Torrone asked:

Season 49 AL South Preview

Florida Poison Dart Frogs

groth911

68 wins and 3rd place for Season 48.  Alexander Pickett (.263/33/89) and Ezdra Rodriguez (.398 OBP, 49 SB) were their usual excellent selves, but they didn't get much help (674 runs, 14th).  The pitchers fared a bit better - their 4.24 ERA was 7th in the AL.  Ronald League (2.62.ERA in 137 IP), Chaz Ross (17 saves, 2.73 ERA in 56 IP ) and Matt Owen (8 wins, 3.87 ERA in 167 IP ) were notable performers on a pretty good staff.

Offseason
Had a basketful of age 35+ FA defections, notably RP Eric Duncan, RP Marcel Calixte, and C Hack Palmer.  Countered by signing and equally-old set of FA's, although 39-yo Wladimir Mercado will be a step up from any of the losses.  

Outlook/Forecast
Winning games is a hard slog when you score 674 runs (4.2 per game), and I can't see any improvement coming.  RF Alexander Pickett is a top producer (.263/33/89 in what was an almost exactly average year) but the only hitter above .800 OPS.  Ezdra Rodriguez (875 career SB's) has been superb (and taught us that 60+ splits were not mandatory) but is about to hit the severe decline stage.  Their staff has traditionally been in the top half of the league and could be again despite some impressive turnover.  They'll need Mercado to dial up one more good year, plus get some surprise (in a good way) performances from some of their unheralded arms.

With their pretty good pitching but lackluster offense they're stuck between neither contending nor being bad enough to land a needle-moving draft pick (although maybe they can get some help at #8 this year).  They could use a total blowup (trade Pickett, 1B Andujar and anything else of value), some real luck with a radical FA plan (All-OBP hitters all the time? Pitchers with mediocre splits but good pitches?), or maybe a couple more years picking at #8.

For this year the hitters age a little more, and pitchers get a bit less lucky.  Somewhere between 60-65 wins.

New Orleans Voodoo

bigmattr

Season 48 saw a continuation of the rebuild with 65 wins.  They seem to have found a bellcow hitter in Peaches Eiermann (.314/24/80 and the LF Silver Slugger), and the pitching staff seems to be coming together around workhorse Nori Zhang (11 wins in 235 IP).

Offseason
Although the strategy of filling out the roster with budget free agents hasn't changed (if you do enough of them some are going to be gems...witness last year's signing of Ervin Payton for $1.0MM and his production of .285/25/76), enough high-end prospects have arrived that they can't help but graduate from turnaround to contender.  SS Santiago Pujols (60 ML games last year) and MR Thomas Miranda (from last year's Richmond trade) join former top draftees and IFA's Peaches Eierman, Bud Benson, Nori Zhang, and Eugene Blake to from the young core.  And don't forget uber-prospect Saul Santana at AAA.

Outlook/Forecast
They may win this ripe-for-the-taking division by default.  If they bring up 1B Cookie Gonzalez, 2B/3B/CF Andres Pizzaro and SP Santana (and I'm assuming they will) I think they'll win the division handily.  If they keep more of an eye on kicking off the service time clock, they might win the division anyway and bring up those guys for the playoffs.  Either way, they're now relevant and a really interesting new contender.

Montgomery Scotts

silentpadna

Did they accomplish the turnaround in 1 season?  Season 48's 85 wins weren't a huge surprise given the production they got from Season 47's trade dividends.  3B Ryan Norman exploded with a .299/43/143 season, winning the 3B Silver Slugger and coming in 2nd in the MVP voting.  C Karim Tejera slugged 37 homers in just 100 games.  A pair of home-grown prospects also excelled - 2B Gabe Huff won the 2B Gold Glove and LF Chi-Chi Alonso posted .283/23/82 in a fine rookie outing.

Offseason
They may have won the division but they're still acting more like a rebuilding team than a contender.  No FA signings, 1 promotion (SS Vince Atkins) and 21 players on the MML roster 10 games into the season.  We're going to see more promotions (Santon Guillon, David Bonilla...? and 2 more) in 10 more games.  

Outlook/Forecast
Season 48 was a bit of a head fake for the rebuilding Scotts.  They got a big bump from Norman and Tejera (even the ever-tradeable William Magee pitched in 32 HR's and good defense in CF) - the prime dividends of the Season 47 mega-deal with Austin.  But now they're waiting for their low-A prospects to arrive while surviving with a staff that posted a 4.91 ERA last year (topped only by Colorado).  Guillon will become the best pitcher on the staff when he arrives, but they're still likely to back up a few games.

Richmond High Rollers

bjc30

A year after a 90-win Division Title, they fizzled to 77 wins in Season 48.  The lineup actually put up a few more runs than Season 47 (Destin Williamson .299/24/102 and Nelson Malone .261/35/101), and they gave up exactly the number of runs they gave up in Season 47  - 766 (Enerio Jaime  14 wins, 3.84 ERA in 199 IP).  So what happened?  They biggest difference I could see was in 1-run games: 23-19 in Season 47 and 19-24 last year.

Offseason
They didn't re-sign Destin Williamson, and we may be seeing the end of the line for one of the most under-appreciated hitters in recent years.  Compiled 465 HR's over his 13 seasons, and had 40+ HR's in each of his first 8 full seasons.  Signed RP Wilbur Harris plus a pair of budget arms.  Made 4 trades - all getting prospects for vets (including SP's Shigetoshi Bong and Midre Miro).

Outlook/Forecast
They've been in a full-on youth movement for several seasons now and have an almost all twenty-something roster.  1B Wolf Tolleson, 2B Harry Diaz, and 3B Haywood Brinson are now the big dogs of the lineup; I don't know if their pitching is better or worse without Bong and Miro, but it's cheaper (their ML payroll is down to $25MM).  But despite acting like an IFA-hunting rebuilder, they might win the division.  I don't think their pitching will be quite enough, but Montgomery and New Orleans have plenty of flaws, too.   I think they'll end up somewhere between last year's 77 wins and S47's 90.

Season 49 NL West Preview

 

Honolulu Luau Dogs

rockydawg07

Season 48

68 wins and a 3rd-place finish.  They did post some unusual activity on the awards banquet circuit.  B.C. Querecuto  (one of their 2 best P's last year with 12 wins and a 3.51 ERA in 194 IP) also won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for NL pitchers.  Quite the triple threat.  Damian Li also picked up the catcher Gold Glove.

Offseason

Honolulu was pretty quiet on the acquisition front.  They essentially trade away aging 5-time all-star 3B (now LF'er) Wayne Langerhans to Austin for aging 10 time all-star RP Bralin Kohn.  If it was real trade you'd rather have Kohn who is still an average ML reliever, where as Langerhand is a solid bench piece.  Either way, neither player moves the needle. 

Outlook/Forecast

The Luau Dogs have been in decline 4 seasons running and haven't made the playoffs in a decade.  

Their rotations is very strong at the top with the aforementioned Querecuto and Tucker Hood.  Also, Andrew Lane is terrifically old, but is still an effective closer.  The trouble is all of their high quality pieces are on the mound.  Not only did they finish last in runs scored, they did so by 37 runs.  Their highly effective pitching staff was the only one in the top 10 to finish with a losing record.  I see no sign that the slow disintegration of the franchise will not continue and predict 65 wins.

Scottsdale Cardinals

finnski

Season 48

62 wins and 4th place, which I guess officially declares a rebuild.  3B Cameron Sears (.282/1/89) topped the hitters, while RP Jair Martinez (7 wins, 3.78 ERA in 97 IP) turned in an outstanding pitching season.

Offseason

It was an off-season of apathy for Scottsdale.  They added no players through free agency nor trade.  This would be understandable and perhaps even expected for a team with the 2nd pick normally, but the Cardinals boast and over 80 million dollar payroll with only one real star.  Scottsdale appears to be rotating around the the event horizon of the MWR exclusion with no visible effort to escape.

Outlook/Forecast

Scottsdale's calling card is their defense where they are average and likely to stay that way.  They are bad at scoring runs and have a well below average pitching staff.  Their one highly tradeable piece is #2 on a good staff/#3 on a great one Jerome Mathis who also has a manageable contract.  Cameron Sears, Francisley Pizzaro, and James Appel are all young, cheap, and ML average and there for could be helping to build something, but the only piece in the minors that is a plus talent shouldn't even be there at all.  26 year old, 2-time ML all-star Yovani Avila is being punished at AAA for some reason.   He's the 2nd best player in the franchise behind Mathis.  I expect the Cardinals to be out via MWR with 52 wins.

Arizona Altitude

canadadry

Season 48

72 wins and a 2nd-place finish in their first season under canadadry.  LF Glenn Davey (.259/40/88) and CF Darrell Ryan (.290/25/90) sparked the offense and Albert Wilson (17-8, 2.63 ERA in 191 IP) booked a stellar campaign on the pitching side.

Offseason

In their second season under Canadadry the Altitude had a busy of season picking up solid, young 1B at Wiki Figueroa (23, .276/27/69 on a trash team) for middle-of-the-rotation pitching prospect Rondo Monroe (fair trade).  They also acquired RF'er Timothy Blake, who has no bat to speak of, but should win the gold glove in right for a nice young 2B prospect in Christian Zhang and just-a-guy SP Luis Lorenzo.  I'd probably rather Zhang, but Blake is more useful this season and it is not a franchise crusher.  In free agency the most important thing the Altitude did was was retain Junior Burawa.  While not all-star, he is above average in all aspects of the game and came at a very fair price considering he is still pretty young.  They also signed terrific setup man Daki Chang at a price that would have been good value at twice the cost.  

Outlook/Forecast

Arizona did nothing that lights my hair on fire, but they seemed to have improved their hitting a little, their fielding a bit, and their relief pitching significantly and of those little improvements matter.  My best guess is 76 wins, but I feel like I am more likely too low than too high on them.  

San Francisco Fog

pfontaine

Season 48

Rallied to win the Division easily despite losing prime FA signee Philip Kennedy for the season in Spring Training.  Del Perez did his usual on-base wizardry (.328/25/79, .411 OBP) and B.J. Kirby (.319/37/120) produced one of his best all-round seasons.  Among the pitchers, Esmerling Martin (16-9, 2.84 in 218 IP) spun another brilliant year

Offseason

It was a busy off season for the 9 consecutive season division champ.  Gone is 2-time all-star and snack enthusiast Chip Puffer (for a less talented version of the same player Fergie Schmidt, young, cheap league average catcher Shawn Stein, and back-of-the-rotation arm Louis Andrews.  The deal does save the Fog about 3 million too, but I'd rather be the Mounties.  Their second deal (also with the Mounties-was this a 5 for 2 and I just missed it?) terrific first baseman Francisco Guerrero for competent, but below average CF Wil Newman and career minor leaguer Corban Simpson.  This deal saved the Fog nearly 7 million which as to be the reason for the deal.  Having saved 12 million is questionable trades, the Fog then went work in free agency.  First they added 3rd starter Luther Padden at 5/64.  I like the player, but not at that number.  Enrique Bastardo came over at reasonable 1/1/6.  However, gone is former Cy Young and borderline HoF'er Kirk Marks who was past his prime a year ago.

Outlook/Forecast

I started talking about the Fog's decline before it was cool and now they seem to have embraced it by doing the things that a team that is starting to build its scouting department back up do.  The scouting department stinks for the first couple of seasons so there is no point in in even soft tanking so you start by signing bonus laden deals (Patten) and trading away guys who are good, but a little over salaried (Puffer) to bring down your commitments in future seasons while still staying competitive.  Pfontaine is terrific and has won 3 WS's in recent memory so knows what he is doing.  He knows that half of his division isn't even trying and the team that is (Arizona) has a while to go before they are even a .500 team.  Therefore he has the running room to start rebuilding while still trying to squeeze a division or two.  I thought they were an 86 win team that got unlucky and only won 83 last season.  This season they are a legit 83 win team.  They are declining, but I do not think the record will show it this season. 

Season 49 NL South Preview

 

Houston Colt .45's

pimpbotlove

Season 48 must have been a mystery for the fandom.  Several of their budding stars found their footing (48 HR's for J.J. Lundquist, for example), and statistically they were actually a bit better than Season 47.  But like division rival Austin the previous year they got unlucky in 1-run games with 31 losses.  On the awards front, CF Shane Williams and RF Lundquist captured Gold Gloves.

Offseason

This year's iteration of the Colt .45s will look an awful lot like last year's iteration of the Colt .45s, as the S49 offseason only saw movement through the exit door. The club said goodbye to fan favorites Julio Cano and Hong-Chih Park and are counting on young, talented core to make a run at the division title.

Outlook/Forecast

Houston boasted one of the strongest pitching staff and defenses in the NL last season and will continue to rely on Diego Alomar and Corbin Pierzynski to devour another 250+ innings each, while a bullpen by committee featuring three sub-3.00 ERA and two sub-1.00 WHIP performers close things down. 

Will an offense that hammered 276 HRs a year ago be able to build on their S48 successes? That will depend on whether we see steps forward from Williams, Lundquist, Danry Moreno and Wilin Cedeno.

By dancing with the girl that brung 'em, as a wise old Texan once probably said, The Colt .45s and owner/manager/janitor pimpbotlove believe their S48 bad luck was an aberration. Sporting the NL's best defense and a top-2 pitching staff, they will make a strong case for a division title.

Prediction: 93-69, 2nd place

San Juan Padres

bobbyj7

Improved to 80 wins in Season 48 but couldn't keep up with the changing of the guard to Austin and Houston.  Vic Diaz paced the pitching staff with 13 wins and a 3.59 ERA in 208 IP, and 2B Al Guzman paced the lineup with a .254/32/69 campaign.

Offseason

San Juan kept the offseason rather simple, bringing in solid and ancient RP Marcell Calixte and moving on from SP Vic Diaz and RP Bernard Shea, who are now roommates in Columbus.

Outlook/Forecast

Veteran Al Guzman and his team leading 32 HRs and 94 runs scored will pace a young offense. The fans hope to see more of young C Ricardo Cabrera, who ripped a slash line of .309/.345/.478 last season in only 132 at bats.

There is plenty of opportunity to shine on the mound as the Padres look to replace over 280 innings from last season. Miguel Juarez and JJ Snell look the most likely to carry the baton.  The addition of Calixte will be very welcome at the back of the bullpen.

Expect a bit of a regression with the loss of Diaz.

Prediction: 76-86, 3rd place

Memphis Knights

palet99

Season 48 saw a respectable 79 wins in the 2nd year of rebuilding after 11 straight NL South crowns.  Dennis Boswell (.305/17/70) and Lou Crawford (.247/30/92) - both now departed - led the offense while William Lui (12 saves, 3.12 ERA in 138 IP) and Geraldo Manto (14 wins, 3.47 ERA in 191 IP) were the pitching standouts.

Offseason

There is usually a turbulent season during a rebuild and this could be it for the newly minted Knights.  Gone are 4 key everyday offensive players, who contributed 40.5% of S48 runs scored, 39.6% of HRs, 37.6% of RBI and 52.9% of SBs. The club lost both Willie Matos and William Lui, among the strengths of their pitching staff.

Trades brought in a variety of minor league talent along with top-of-the-lineup 2B Dave Thompson and SP Jose Valdespin, while veteran Mike Darwin and defensive wizard Bartolo Lee joined via FA.

Outlook/Forecast

Despite major departures offensively, the club still returns 3 top starters in Geraldo Manto, Johnny Gardner and FabioReitz.  Their performances will either carry or sink the staff in S49.

 Miguel Castillo, Audy Treanor and ageless wonder Pep Walsh will pace an offense with decent on-base skills but lacking in power.

 

Rebuilding in a division with three strong rivals is a tough task. In year 2 of the rebuild, if Memphis can shed a couple contracts, add some assets and hit the MWR (which their talent indicates they should do easily), this season should be considered a success.

Prediction: 65-97, 4th place

Austin Apocalypse

blanch13

Season 48 looked like the year for Austin.  They cruised through the NL regular season with 111 wins and survived a season-ending knee injury to star 3B Steve Walsh, but fell to eventual Champ Vancouver in the NLCS.  C Gerald Lim was the hitting star (.330/33/104).  On the pitching  side the entire staff was very good boasting 3 15-game winners (Jodie, Alcantara and Hobbes) plus the NL FOY (Byron Huff).

Offseason

It was a relatively busy offseason in Austin. Gone CF Touki Epstein, star setup man Bralin Kohn and swingman Cesar Benevente.  Joining the club are: very rich man Tanner Mlicki, veteran bats Trayce Zoltan, Eugenio Martin and Wayne Langerhans, and relievers Bo Burrell and Jeimer Pena - all of whom are looking to make an impact right away.

Outlook/Forecast

What do you get the squad that wins 111 games? Apparently some upgrades.

Austin doesn't look like slowing down in S49, even before they bring Walsh back into the fold. They'll work to hold off Houston on the arms of aces Chris Osborne and Pat Jodie, the bats of Lim, Darrell Lynn and Reynaldo Martin, and the legs of David Seneca.

Prediction: 105-57, 1st place