Season 45 NL West Preview

San Francisco Fog
pfontaine
SEA 44:   99-63, Won Division, advanced to NLDS and lost to Jackson

Season 44 In Brief:  5th straight Division title, but a Division-Round playoff exit at the hands of NL Champ Jackson.  Del Perez on-based .403, Francisco Guerrero .399 with 97 RBI, and  Geronimo Posada hit .302/26/115 for the NL's #2 offense (860 runs).  Kirk Marks (17-10, 3.32 ERA in 227 IP) led the way for the NL's 4th-ranked (3.74 ERA) staff.

Season 45 Preseason:  Mid-range FA signings of 30-something pitchers Diego Romo, Al Benitez and Jalal Carver.  Promoted rookies Delahanty, Silva and Iannetta.

Forecast:  They score a lot of runs because there are always guys on base (.343 team OBP - #1 in NL).  They're not a monster power team but 6 players can give you 20+ homers.  Marks is the undisputed staff ace; starters 2-5 and the short relievers are sneaky effective - they all have modest splits but very good pitches and get away with some mistakes in the spacious ballpark.  Bonus:  Grade A defense anchored by GG-caliber SS Avisail Silva (and Silver Slugger last year with an unexpected 21-HR outburst).  102-60

Player Watch:  I keep thinking Perez will win an MVP because the runs created stat (heavily considered for the MVP ballot) seems to like big OBP guys.  He's probably going to have to hit .340+ with 30 HR's to do it, though.  

Honolulu Luau Dogs
rockydawg07

SEA 44:  78-84

Season 44 In Brief:  kept with their recent pattern of 70's wins in even years and 90's wins in off years.  Brad Terry was a monster again (.336/44/114) and Tracy Stearns had probably his best all-round year with a 15-8, 3.41 ERA in 224 IP.

Season 45 Preseason:  Huge free agent haul with a bunch of budget guys, Hooks Gose (2 years, $10.6MM), Wayne Langerhans (3 years, $39MM)m and Mark Cromer (1 year, $5.2MM).  And they promoted S41 #4 overall B.C. Querecuto and S40 IFA Yamil DeSoto.  


Forecast:  Are Querecuto and DeSoto upgrades over Theo Schulte (FA to Philadelphia) and Eduardo Johnson (demoted to AAA).  Maybe...Schulte and Johnson were both pretty good last year (both right at 4.00 ERA) although Johnson was well below his career ERA.  So, yeah probably an upgrade, especially since the money saved on Schulte went to a lineup upgrade.  Langerhans takes over at 3B, moving Boone Howard to RF, so they get a bump in offense in right and defensive upgrades at both spots.  And Gose settles last year's LF revolving door, converting Victor Brady from a weak link offensively in LF to a plus-hitting multi-position utility man.  I am absolutely not wild about this bullpen, but I love the bold changes.  They'll keep up the pattern.  93-69

Player Watch:  Querecuto was the linchpin of the S42 Vic Campos trade, so they need him to step up and be a solid #1.  I don't think he's quite that, but he'll probably imitate one some seasons.  

Scottsdale Cardinals
finnski

SEA 44:  73-89

Season 44 In Brief:  72, 73, 72 and 73 wins the last 4 seasons; time to shake it up, finnski.  Trever Fick (.285/28/107) and Howie Lee (.267/30/119) were the big producers for a pretty decent offense (736 runs, 9th in NL).  The pitching  struggled with all the primary SP's posting 4.70+ ERA's.  Relievers Ronald Hoover (27 saves, 3.10 ERA), Al Sucre (7 wins, 3.11 ERA) and Francisco Peguero (3.57 ERA in 106 IP) kept the late innings competitive although they combined for only 233 IP.  Of more statistical than competitive significance, 1B Yonder Guzman swiped 118 bases - likely a top-10 season (#5 is 123 by Bobby Mientkiewicz in S5) and almost certainly a record for 1B's.

Season 45 Preseason:  Only a couple of middling P's in Jair Martinez and Eli Izquierdo in FA.  Otherwise, all quiet in the preseason.

Forecast:  I fondly remember the Lou Trammel - led Cards of long ago, who routinely bashed 240 HR's whether they were good or not.  Now they're a contact-and-speed team with a 1B who steals 100+ bases.  It's nice to see Trever Fick produce; I liked him from his MiL days and he's only gotten a chance to play FT the last 4 seasons with Scottsdale.  Lee is really the only other dangerous hitter, and he's out of position at 2B.  #1 starter Billy Walker can be better than he was last year (4.86 ERA vs. career of 4.38).  Maybe Eli Izquierdo can dial up some magic one more time at age 38, but even that wouldn't save this  pitching staff.  70-92

Player Watch:  Unfortunately, Guzman - and whether he can steal 123+ bags to get into the top 5 SB seasons - is the team's most interesting player.  

Salt Lake City Trappers
palet99
SEA 44:  61-101

Season 44 In Brief:  A second rebuild year for the palet regime.  They got their best hitting season from Hooks Gose (.293/22/70), who left in FA.  The staff had some moments...probably the most by swingman Weldon Jenkins (6-6, 2.72 ERA in 112 IP), who was trade away during the season.  They got P Albert Ortiz at #6 in the draft.

Season 45 Preseason:  Budget FA signings were the norm although they paid up a bit for P Louis Stein.  As with last season, they brought up a bunch of rookies, most notably 3B Juan Carlos Alvarado (S41 IFA, $17MM bonus) and SS Don Coffey (S40 #72 overall).

Forecast:  The roster has gotten very cheap - under $25MM for the whole organization.  They can now play in the IFA market while they gradually improve.  This is a touch-and-go year for them - they didn't commit much to free agents and their mwr is 64, 3 more than they won last year.  They'll probably make it, but it might be close.  66-96

Player Watch:  SS Coffey is going to make some errors, but will also be a + play machine with that range and arm strength.  He'll also be a much better hitter than most SS's of his defensive talent.  Great bargain at #72 in his draft.

Division Race
1.  San Francisco     102-60
2.  Honolulu               93-69
3.  Scottsdale              70-92
4.  Salt Lake                66-96

Season 45 Trade thoughts Volume 2

The Colorado House of Horrors trade Louis McMahon to the Vancouver Chin Music for Carl Latham



Typical like for younger like trade.  In abstract I like Vancouver’s side a little better, but McMahon has really, really struggled as a starting pitcher in Colorado so I get the deal.  McMahon is a typical #3 starter.  Latham, who is only 21, projects to be a strong #4 starter, but if he can handle Colorado better than McHahon everyone wins.

Season 45 Power Rankings Week 1

team	score	comment
Montgomery	1.25	The 2-time defending champ is the class of the league and it isn't close.
Jacksonville	3.25	Has dropped off a little.  Top 5 team, but not elite.
San Francisco	4.5	Probably the 2ns best team going
Columbus	5	The favorite to with the NL East
Philadelphia	5.25	Does well in every measurement
Kansas City	6	A threat to win the World Series for the first time in a while
San Juan	8.25	#1 in wins, #2 in expected winning percentage.  If they keep it up they will climb the rankings fast.
New York	9.25	Not winning, but everything else looks good so far
Milwaukee	9.5	The Bucks sure look good, huh?
Oakland	10	It will be interesting to see if the winning continues
Durham	10.3	The luckiest team so far
Las Vegas	10.8	There is a clear drop after Vegas.  The last good team.
Honolulu	12	I love Hawaii.
Richmond	15.8	About as middle of the road as they come
Toledo	16	Should be better than they are playing
Jackson	16.5	My kid's best friend's name is Jaxon which is think is a weird spelling of the name
Houston	16.5	A little bump in the rebuild?
Toronto	17.3	Poor roster score is holding them down.  They have played well
New Orleans	17.8	Nice to see them in the middle of the pack
Colorado	19.3	The only Western state I have never been to
Florida	19.8	Ezdera has 611 career steals. 1000 is a possibility
Helena	21	What do you expect from a team from Montana
Dover	23.3	Their name is Lastplace, but Cleveland has that sewn up
Boston	23.3	#1 in our hearts
Austin	24.3	Has been a little unlucky
Vancouver	24.8	Punching above their weight so far
Montreal	25.3	The gradual fall continues
Salt Lake City	25.5	Playing ok despite a bottom 2 roster
Los Angeles	25.5	The last team on the list it could turn around for
Scottsdale	27.8	One of three clearly worst teams in the league
Cleveland	29.3	Might lose the most games
Pittsburgh	30.5	Its going to be a rough year

Season 45 AL South Preview

Richmond High Rollers
bjc30

SEA 44:  80-82

Season 44 In Brief:  First year in the last 7 they haven't contended.  The offense actually scored 83 more runs (thanks to a lot of guys but especially Miguel Fuentes' bounce back to 50 HR, 159 RB).  Even in a big offensive year (the average AL team scored 29 more runs in S44 than S43) that's a big outburst.  The team ERA was down a little more than the AL average (Richmond fell by .26, AL average .14)...doesn't seem like enough to explain a 7-win falloff given the runs explosion.  As usual, the 1-run record explains a lot.  22-17 in S43, 18-24 in S44.  They got unlucky.

Season 45 Preseason:  They scored a pair of IF's in FA with Humberto Almora and Brian Thome and promoted C Eddie Goldman (S39 3rd-rounder).  

Forecast:  It's tempting to call Richmond's offense "average", as it rates within a place or 2 of the AL average in just about every category.  But "bipolar" might be more descriptive.  It gets incredible production from 1B (Fuentes), LF (Destin Williamson - .324/42/124), RF Chick Rosenthal (.286/29/103) and DH B.J. Kirby (.311/42/130) and not much from anybody else (Rosenthal's .850 OPS was the lowest of those 4; the next-highest OPS's  among regulars were Zephyr Burke's .734 and Turner Fletcher's .656.  Thome could make a small difference but let's say it's still a "highly concentrated attack".  The pitching talent is also focused in S1-S4 (Ellis, Morris, Bong and Skinner).   It doesn't help that their best and most prolific RP, Yangervis Johnson (8-4, 3.43 ERA in 152 IP), departed for Kansas City in free agency.  I think the starters will be OK, but the shaky bullpen could lead to an even bigger number of 1-run losses.  Some great talent on this roster, but big risks as well.  75-87

Player Watch:  Destin Williamson loves getting the numerals "2" and "4" into his stats, but he really took it to an extreme last year:  3rd straight season of 42 HR's to go with 124 runs, 124 RBI, .324 BA, and 1.042 OPS.

Montgomery Scotts
silentpadna 

SEA 44:  104-58, won Division, advanced to WS and defeated Jackson

Season 44 In Brief:  2 straight Crowns, impressive.  That's been rare enough in Hobbs history, but I have to think it's even tougher in the competitive environment we've reached. It was a pretty simple formula:  score more runs than everybody else except Colorado (950), and don't let the other guys hit the ball very hard (3.84 ERA).  C Gerald Lim (.334/40/137) was the biggest lineup standout of many; the staff channeled the '71 Orioles with 3 20-game winners (Osborne 24-2 2.86, Mercado 22-3 2.84, and Merced 21-3 3.05).

Season 45 Preseason:  Said goodbye to Yamil Cairo and hello to Dan Burke.  Somehow I see this as an upgrade even though Cairo was better last year and has a bit better OPS over his career (maybe thanks to 3 .900+ OPS seasons in COL).

Forecast: + or ++ hitters everywhere except CF and SS, and it's ++ defense at those spots.  They're RRH heavy, with only 3B Walsh and RF Mercedes swinging lefty, so that's probably the way to pitch to them.  Monty uses one of the more unusual pitching setups, with 6 starters in 3 tandem pairings.  Yep, all 3 of their 20-game winners last year appeared in 40+ games without starting 1.  Given their wealth of pitching talent I'm not sure it matters much how they set it up.  Edgmer Gil was terrible last year and is sure to bounce back, as if they need more help.  Maybe their short relief is slightly vulnerable, but outside of Zeke Sears, they may not need them much.  102-60

Player Watch:  Lim has put together about the best first 3 seasons by a C you'll ever see (or have seen).  HOF greatness?

Florida Poison Dart Frogs
groth911 
SEA 44:  61-101

Season 44 In Brief:  A rebuild year, and that was probably the bottom for awhile for FLA.  They just couldn't score any runs.  Jeurys Vargas (.251/31/95) was their best hitter, while Alexander Pickett was inexplicably bad (.222/22/88).  Their team ERA was better than the AL average (4.39 to 4.64) and kept them above the mwr.  Several of their relievers had better qualitative stats, but Al Montgomery was an effective workhorse (14-14, 3.88 in 234 IP).  Mike Darr caught every single pitch of every single inning (all 1433.1 of 'em), and managed to drive in all of 32 runs.

Preseason:  Some pretty significant FA additions in C Hack Palmer,  RP Alfredo Osoria, CF/2B Paolo Ordonez, and SS's Hudson and Lin.  



Forecast:   The lineup will be better.  Palmer will be a vast improvement over Darr's .157 BA /7 HR's.  It's hard to overstate how much of a letdown Pickett's season was, but 1B David Andujar's was just as bad (.811 OPS in S43 to .705).  Both will be back over .800 this year.  Ordonez will add some more on-base to the top of the order...this lineup will be respectable.  The rockstars of the staff are co-closers Calixte (2.51, 17 saves) and Ross (1.11 ERA, 11 saves).  The rotation (Benevente, Owen, Wood and Alomar) is generally solid but can cough up the occasionally hairball of a season (witness Alomar's 3-16, 6.14 ERA last year).  Much better lineup...barring a total staff meltdown  they should pick up quite a few wins on last year.  79-83

Player Watch:  Pickett for Comeback Player of the Year

New Orleans Voodoo
bigmattr  

SEA 44:  67-95

Season 44 In Brief:  4th rebuilding season, as they continued to jockey around those big names in the rotation.  Dealt for Pat Jodie, made a great trade (imo) for David Seneca, and finally decided to trade Chris Osborne for the younger Nori Zhang.  Touki Epstein was the highlight hitter at .386 OBP, 23 HR, 95 RBI, while Addison Jaime was Mr. Versatile for the staff (10 wins, 10 saves, 3.45 ERA in 117 IP).

Season 45 Preseason:  Another big pitching deal, as they got Tony Arias for Julio Cano and Quinn Lewis.  They filled the roster with budget FA's again. 

Forecast:  They now have 5 stars (Jodie, Arias, Jaime, Seneca and Epstein) and 2 more (Zhang and RP Byron Huff) at AAA.  They'll improve a lot this year and should really be ready to rock it ion S45.   77-85

Player Watch:  Arias was strictly a reliever for J'Ville but now gets a chance to start and stretch out to 150 IP.

Division Race:
1.  Montgomery     102-60
2.  Florida                 79-83
3.  New Orleans       77-85
4.  Richmond           75-87

Season 45 NL East Preview

Jacksonville Fake ID's
topoftheworl
SEA 44:  106-56, Won Division, lost in NLDS to New York

Season 44 In Brief:  The juggernaut rolled to 105+ wins again, but again went out of the playoffs early.  Lou Crawford (.288/49/124) won the MVP and 2 more were finalists (Campos and Valdivia I think, can't remember).  A lot of pitchers stood out but foremost was Bralin Kohn with 13 wins and 35 saves in 108 IP.

Season 45 Preseason:  It was a tall order to improve this team but I think top did it with the trade of Tony Arias for legit #1 Julio Cano and more-than-adequate MR Quinn Lewis.  A #1 SP was about the only thing you could say this team was missing.

Forecast: Their starting lineup (C Avila, 1B Mlicki, 2B Crawford,  3B Guerrero, SS Kennedy, LF Valdivia, CF Campos and RF DeLeon) is the most productive in the NL and has plus hitters at every position except maybe 3B.  In the late innings (usually with big leads) they sub in their waves of defensive geniuses and make the #5 pitching staff even tougher to deal with (they've led the NL in good plays for 3 straight years).  Cano obviously upgrades the rotation big-time, and Lewis is not actually a huge downgrade from Arias.  Their pitching staff could well bump up a couple of notches this year.  110-52

Player Watch:  Keep an eye on Carlos Valdivia in his age 35 year.  He played all 162 last year and other than the usual early-mid 30's power declines he's aged very well.  When this team starts to get old he'll be the first to show it (but probably not this year).

Columbus Buckeyes
rdierkers
SEA 44: 106-56, Wild Card, lost Play-In to New York

Season 44 In Brief:  6 seasons for rdierkers, 6 90+ win seasons, 6 Wild Cards.  Not bad.  Unfortunately the Buckeyes hit the same hot NY squad in Round 1 that went on to take down Jacksonville in Round 2.  Keith Jones (.293/49/124) had the breakout season on offense; J.P. Rapp (3rd Cy Young - 19-8, 3.20 ERA in 267 IP) and Aurelio Duran (7 wins, 7 saves, 1.76 ERA in 112 IP) paced the #1 staff in the NL (3.26 ERA).

Season 45 Preseason:  Free agency left some hard-to-fill holes at Duran's setup spot, 3B (Wayne Langerhans) and 1B (Yamil Ibanez).  Columbus geared up and met the challenge, signing FA's Jim Pressley (3B), Kory Atkins (1B), Phil Newfield (P), Roberto Almora (LF), and Willis McDade (P), and re-signing C Swindell, P Eibner and CF Shumaker.  


Forecast:  Almora might be the most stabilizing signing - he takes over in LF (they used 9 in LF last year) and lets Louie Almonte go full-time at 2B, Destin Harang full-time at 3B, and slots Pressley and Valaika as better-than-typical IF backups.  Jones and Atkins give them 2 big power threats, so their offense could plate a few more runs.  The rotation/LR group behind Rapp is very strong where it counts (2 and 3 starters Morey and Viciedo) and hides some minor weaknesses at SP's 4/5 and LR.  They'll certainly miss Duran, but it might just mean more innings for Malachi Carver (2.47 ERA over 4 seasons), who would be starting on many teams.  Andrew Lane's still knocking out his 56 IP a year of 3.00 ERA (or lower) at age 35.
Despite the many changes it's not an appreciably different team than last year's, and the record will be similar.  104-58

Player Watch:  Rapp remains the most interesting pitcher in Hobbs.  He can throw so many innings he moves the needle by himself.

Dover Lastplace
justinuv
SEA 44:  81-81

Season 44 In Brief:  Last year's edition slid from 8 straight 90-win seasons to 81.  They got the usual big power numbers from Robbins (44/104) and Hayes (40/103) but still scored 73 fewer runs.  The pitching actually improved a couple of slots to 7th (3.98).  Willie Matos had one of his better seasons at 19-8, 3.52 ERA in 230 IP.

Season 45 Preseason:  Couple of big FA losses in CF Chico Astacio and RF Kory Atkins.   Looks like they'll fill in with Yusmeiro Valdespin in CF and Tony Huang in right, but they won't replace the lost production. The staff has a couple of additions - rookies Juan Castillo ( DITR who was a 19th-rounder in S41) and Manny Tabaka (Rule V'er and DITR - originally a 12th-rounder in S40).

Forecast:  There's still a lot of talent here, although I don't think they'll reverse course and contend.  Hayes is 33 now, and his power ratings are dropping.  Robbins is 31 - his power will start dropping soon although I think his numbers will hold up better in his mid-30's than Hayes' will.  Without Astacio patrolling CF, the rest of the lineup is pure pedestrian.  The staff could hold up - Matos is still money and should be for several more years.  Taveras is a decent enough #2.  But the talent falls off there.  Who knows what will happen this season...the 4-5 big talents may keep them floating for awhile.  In a tough division, do you trade Hayes, Robbins and Matos at the break?  Lots of mystery surrounding this team.  74-98

Player Watch:  3B Robbins...no matter how much we hear "ratings, ratings, ratings" if he gets off to a hot start he'll be a lot easier to trade.  

Cleveland Vikings
klown61455
SEA 44: 65-97

Season 44 In Brief:  Another rebuilding year for the Vikes.  Dallas Sever (.292/31/96) was outstanding in a mediocre offense (677 runs - 12th).  The staff was 14th in ERA (4.76); if there was a standout I guess it was Dave Waters (11-13, 4.08 ERA in 216 IP).  They added P Henry Holm with the 4th pick of the draft.

Season 45 Preseason:  Sever took off to OAK, so that's a chunk pf production gone.  Very few changes - minor FA signing of C Ronn Richardson and a Rule V selection, SS Don Graves.

Forecast:  More rebuilding as they wait on prospects to mature.  Speaking of which, they have 3 good ones in AAA we're likely to see sometime this year:  2B Larry Cumpton (S40 #3 overall), IF Jose Benitez ($22MM-bonus IFA S41), and RP Mark Post (S41 #24 overall).  These guys are all pretty much as good as they're going to get and would have a positive impact on the ML record.  65-97.

Player Watch:  Comeback season for Mark Wallace?  That would certainly put the mwr quest to bed early.  

Division Race:
1.  Jacksonville     110-52
2.  Columbus         104-58
3.  Dover                  74-98
4.  Cleveland           65-97