Big Offseason Moves
The youth movement cost a couple of significant FA's in C Chris Bruske and RP Gil Clemens, and they haven't (thus far) signed any free agents. The roster additions have come in the form of the promotions of 4 pitchers (honestly, none of whom are very good) and trade dividends. The biggest trade name coming in is probably 1B Blake Kohlscheen, a Season 41 21st-rounder who made the most of his DITR status. He's a prototypical good power/good eye 1B slugger who we'll almost certainly see at game 20.
The other potential Game 20 promotion of course, is Jose Encarnacion, the $39MM Season 44 IFA who is Hobbs' next emerging ace SP. I think the Mounties would ideally keep him at AAA this year, but I think they might also need him to hit the mwr.
The Good News
CF Lorenzo Rosario has started his career with 5 straight 40-HR seasons and is in his prime. They also have plus power at C with Torey Lively, 3B with Fergie Schmidt, and RF with Miguel Fuentes. SP Audry Rojas was a sensation as a rookie, Ottawa has a terrific 1-2 at the top of the rotation set for a decade plus.
The Bad News
There a couple of points of concern. They're really lacking at getting on base (.314 last year) and need to address that somehow. And the staff is a concern. Last year the staff only had 5 pitchers with ERA's under 4.50; 3 are gone and one (closer Phillip Janssen) only throws 65 innings a year. The rookies they brought up aren't going to help, so their pitching has a chance to be even worse than last year's
What To Expect
They'll struggle, but probably still handle the mwr easily. They'll win some games with bunches of HR's, and we'll probably see Encarnacion come up at Game 20 and be a ROY contender.
Big Offseason Moves
A productive offseason for Vancouver, as they trade for #1 starter Ryan Blackley and all-everything SS Avisail Silva, then add 3B Kenny Miller on an economical FA deal and promote new C Odrisamer Cortez ($3.8MM IFA in Season 44).
The Good News
58...75...82...that's the number of wins the last 3 years. And this year they add a #1 pitcher and the best SS in Hobbs. Get the pattern? Cortez and Willin Asencio will have a long run as a potent catcher platoon. Dave Thompson may not be a great defender, but he is the ultimate "Moneyball" 2B ("Do I care whether he walks or gets a hit? You do not."). Anyway, he's probably only keeping 2B warm 1 more season for Jimmy Stairs (S45 #1 overall). LF Ernesto Olivares OPS'd .837 as a rookie. Really, the lineup is just about there.
Blackley completes a rotation that is now capable of winning the division. It's not altogether clear who should even be in the rotation, but the top 4 are probably Blackley, Tollberg, Garces, and McMahon.
The Bad News
It's not quite a complete contender yet. Dick Voight's an intriguing middle reliever who will improve on his S46, but the rest of the 'pen is going to be up and down (to be fair, this was not the offseason to count on rebuilding your bullpen in FA). Contreras is a sub-par hitter at 1B, but he's cheap for 1 more year until they can find a FA or make a trade.
What To Expect
Another bump up in wins, although I doubt they're quite ready to challenge Toronto and New York.
bluebaran
SEA 46: 96-66, Won Division (that's 2 straight), advanced to NLCS and lost to San Francisco
Big Offseason Moves
All sorts of moves/countermoves this year. They had 2 solid SP's - Brandon Booth and Mariano Flores - bolt in free agency, prompting trades for Jumbo Morris and Charles Wiltse. Morris did cost them a pretty good young OF (Haywood Brinson) but the ticket for Wiltse was a utility IF (Brian Thomas). Meanwhile, the development and promotion of CF Cam Wathan let them move incumbent CF Darrell Ryan for a superb SS (Don Coffey) and RP Will Bryant.
The Good News
As the offseason smoke clears, Toronto emerges with a much better pitching staff and improved defense. Wiltse will forever be grateful for the turn of events that brought him to Toronto; he spent his first 6 seasons in Hartford and Durham, where infield popups and broken-bat loopers turn into home runs. With his pitches, he's likely to be a 3.50 ERA or better performer in the more neutral Toronto ballpark. Plus, with Coffey at SS and Wathan in CF, the staff will get a few more good plays and have a few less errors to work around.
All this is sandwiched around the NL's #2 offense. Bud Robbins hasn't slowed down. Phillip Kennedy drove in 135 last year. Alex Kim is the reigning MVP. Royce Jordan has 82 bombs in his first 2 seasons, but one suspects he can do even bigger things.
The Bad News
The back end of the rotation is suspect - Kawakami seems to be pretty good in odd-numbered seasons and pretty bad in even-numbered seasons. So this year's good, right? Do you really want to count on that? Closer Whang seems to be the only truly reliable arm in the 'pen they'll need more come playoff time.
And as much as I like the lineup, it could regress a little this year. Kim's OPS was "only" 180 points above his career average so you know that won't happen again. Robbins was right on his career number, but Kennedy was 80 points above his. Ryan's .932 OPS was well above what Wathan will likely do.
What To Expect
A better front 3 on the rotation and better defense looks more like a playoff formula than a regular-season formula.
Big Offseason Moves
Totally quiet, especially compare to Toronto's gyrations. Looks like they'll promote Tyreace Anderson at Game 20 to help with catching, and maybe sign a FA LF. But this is last year's team through and through.
The Good News
Well, last year (and all recent years) was pretty good. Clancy gets on base 40% of the time, Chen hits 50-something dingers, and Holland and Walters win 30 games between them. Hideki Uchida excelled (.290/33/87) in his 2nd ML debut and seems to be a fixture at 2B. Sam Teagarden (12 wins, 16 saves, 2.19 ERA) is the very definition of what you want in a high STA/DUR reliever. And they're still a fairly young, modestly-priced ($83MM total payroll) team.
The Bad News
So with all these stars, why haven't they had more playoff success? They did have a good run to the ALCS in Season 44, but other than that it's been 4 Round 1 outs. One route would be to start avoiding the first round altogether. That lessens the chances of the crap shoot biting you in the ass. To do that, I think they'd add better bats at 1B and LF and add a decent quality P or 2. The other approach might be to sell out for playoff success - concentrate all remaining payroll resources on a top-dog 3rd SP and another Teagarden-quality reliever, and surround the core with cheap FA's and Rule Fivers.
Then again, they could've just been a little unlucky. This year could be the one.
What To Expect
It's pretty much last year's team with no age-related degradation, so similar results. It could go either way with them and Toronto...I think the St. Pats have a little better roster, so we'll go with Toronto to take the division again and NY to Wild Card again.
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