torrone
SEA 46: 93-69, Won Division, lost in Round 1 to Toledo
Big Offseason Moves
Re-signed 3 of their own SP's - Jerrod Gillaspie, Harry Martin and Yorvit Medrano.
The Good News
10 guys aged 24-26 on the ML roster. Scored 847 runs (almost identical to S45's total) and none of the big producers have gotten super-old or departed. The big dog last year was 1B Mike Darwin with 38 HR's and 120 RBI - one of his better seasons no doubt but not really much higher than his career average.
The big difference last year was pitching - 4.49 ERA versus S45's 5.30. The question is can it hold up? If you look at the guys who pitched well AND a lot you can get fairly optimistic. AL ROY Jesus Guapo doesn't have any comparison seasons but if you look at his pitches a 3.85 ERA seems repeatable. Adams improved a lot on his S45 numbers, but again wasn't ridiculously better than his career norm. Of the other 4 starters, Gillaspie and Lugo were better than S45; Howell and Martin were worse. In other words, there wasn't some dramatic coming together of career years - more like improvements on a bunch of down years in S45. Odds are their pitching will be much closer to S46 levels than S45's.
The Bad News
Part of the big turnaround was getting incredibly lucky (30-18 in 1-run games) after a year of getting incredibly unlucky (14-28 in 1-runners in S45). Difference of 16 wins - a good chunk of their 23-win improvement. Of course, when your ERA improves by nearly a run a game you're likely to get a bit luckier.
What To Expect
The usual run totals - 840 to 850. A nice followup season by Guapo. Pitching that generally resembles S46 more than S45. Their 1-run wins could be anything. I don't think they'll edge Toledo again but I think they'll be in the running for the playoffs all year.
blanch13
gogogadget
SEA 46: 73-89
Big Offseason Moves
Traded 3 mid-level prospects for Yasiel Cayones. Active in free agency: the big hauls were relievers Odrisamer Balboa, Diego Romo and Paul Tanaka; and the catcher platoon of Chris Bruske and Eugenio Martin. Traded for SP prospect Aurelio Gomez.
The Good News
Aggressive, win-now stance right out of the gate by new GM gogogadget. That Bruske/Martin platoon might be the most productive "catcher" in Hobbs. Very good power as well at 1B (Gerald Gentry), 3B (Andrea Sutcliffe), DH (Bo Stewart), and wherever they play Cayones. The staff is fronted by #1 Vasco Alonzo; his best compliments are RP's Balboa, Romo, Tanaka and A.J. Sweeney. We'll see some version of the relief-centric pitching setup that has become popular the last few seasons. Obviously they have a serious surplus at C/DH - we could see a trade for a COF.
The Bad News
The lineup is still incomplete. They still need 2 corner outfielders and the full coterie of backups. There are always viable options in the Spring Training FA leftovers, but it is a thinner pool this year. Maybe they put the Bruske/Martin platoon in RF and give their best defensive C (Wellington Rojas) backup PT behind Cayones. Even with the strong relief corps they need regular 5-inning stints from 3 SP's other than Alonzo - that's gonna be an iffy proposition.
What To Expect
There's a whole bunch of C's and RP's here, so it's going to be unconventional for sure. They will beat last year's 621 runs (last in the AL) and 203 HR's handily. More wins, but not likely a contender yet.
Big Offseason Moves
Cleaned house by trading no fewer than 9 established veterans, including stars Yasiel Cayones and Ryan Blackley. That netted 11 prospects of varying talents, the best of whom are probably 2B Jhonatan Lugo (#15 overall by Vancouver last year) and C Radley Rountree (#51 by Montreal in S43). The bulk of the roster-rebuilding so far has been the promotion, Rule 5 selection, or holding over of young glove talent, although they bolstered what was left of the staff with free agents Andres Morlan and Louis Stein.
The Good News
There are a few more pieces to add, sure, but it looks like the ML payroll might not be much more than $20MM. They have 3 pretty good bats in AAA they can add and one of them - LF Otis Hayes (#2 overall in S43) - will be really good. Of the non-SS-and-CF types on the ML roster now, the power ratings of 1B Azocar and OF's Long and Alberto stand out. They're gonna hit their share of bombs. There are some fair-to-middling arms on the staff - Stein, Diekman, Gray - and the move from pitcher-graveyard Durham to pitcher-friendly Buffalo will raise all boats on the staff.
The Bad News
If we set the over/under on team OBP at .310 (usually the last team in the AL is somewhere around there), I don't know if anyone would take the over. CF Will Newman is probably their best table-setter, and I think they'd be happy if he on-based .340. Are there enough arms to win 55 on this staff? Probably, but their margin of error is likely to be pretty thin.
What To Expect
It's a classic low-payroll turnaround, and I'll give them credit for having a definite vision for how they'll win games - pitch just well enough, and hope their all-or-nothing sluggers connect often enough - to win 55 8-to-7 affairs. I'll think it'll work, but what if too many of those homers are solos? What if the fickle 1-run gods don't appreciate whatever clubhouse sacrifices they make? Most turnarounds are boring (I speak from long experience); this one will be fun to watch and pull for.
pak4427
SEA 46: 90-72, Wild Card, advanced to Division ROund and lost to Montgomery
Big Offseason Moves
They suffered a few short-reliever FA defections - nothing they can't replace easily (most notably probably Colin Basile, who closed 37 of 42 opportunities last year). Signed Tomas Carrara and Ozzie Martin - upgrades over the 3 losses - for budget-friendly numbers.
The Good News
Very potent attack (838 runs) that was 6th in runs in the AL last year. And it's young. 3B Alex Reid (.280/42/115) is the old man of the offensive core at 29. Napoleon Rogers (25) hit 31 homers in his first full season. DH Handworth is just 25. CF Garabez Espinosa (just 22) OPS'd .845 in his first near-full season. And the ringleader, potential MVP Donald Ritz, just 25 and coming off his best year (.320/36/123). This is a really good lineup - I'd say they're way more likely to break out with 875 runs than back up to 800.
Paul Kinney (14-8, 3.35 ERA last year, 2-time Cy Young winner) gives Toledo a big advantage against their division rivals - he's the true ace of the division. Fuentes and Cobb are capable #2/#3 SP's
The Bad News
One thing that has held Toledo back is the depth behind their first 3 starters (plus Wilber Harris). Playoff success needs fewer pitchers than regular-season success, but it still needs more than 4.
What To Expect
I'm intrigued by the Martin and Carrara FA signings because they just might give the Walley those 5th and 6th quality arms you need come playoff time. I think Carrara is an especially important piece - he was pretty good before his 2 years in Colorado and if he could return to that form it could mean that playoff breakthrough.
I love Boston's scrappiness, but I think Toledo has more talent and will win the division in a close race.
blanch13
Here's How The Division Goes This Year
1. Toledo
2. Boston
3. Trenton
4. Buffalo
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