SEA 46: 68-94
Big Offseason Moves
A stand-pat off-season after falling from 87 wins and the Division Title to 68 wins last year...no trades and only minor FA moves. And the only promotion is keeping DH Achilles Hoffman on the ML roster after 50 AB's last year.
The Good News
Was S45 or S46 the aberration? They had very similar rosters.
As always when there's a big swing from year-to-year, we first look at 1-run games and expected percentage. Sure enough, the S45 A's went 30-20 in 1-run games, and their expected % put them at 82 wins rather than their actual 87.
They were quite unlucky last year with only 20 1-run wins, and expected wins of 70 vs. actual of 68.
So in S45, they played a little worse than their record indicates, and last year they played a little better than their record indicates.
On offense, they scored 45 fewer runs in a slightly "up" year for runs scored. Interestingly, of the 7 players with the most AB's in S45 (that were still on the team in S46 - Harren, Jeter, Marmol, Stockton, Bailey, Sever, Blevins), 4 had better OPS's in S46 (including the 2 oldest, Jeter and Sever). The decline in offense came pretty much from the backups.
The team ERA blew up by half a run, and it was all over the lot. Didn't help that Randy Shoppach missed the whole year. Their other FA, Duffy Miller, was a total disaster with a 5.97 ERA. There's no way he can't be better this year.
Overall, there's a fairly compelling case that they really had a lot of bad luck last year.
The Bad News
Bad luck aside, they don't have a terribly talented or deep roster, and they didn't do anything to improve it in the offseason. They're in a bit of a drift - chances are they'll drift up a little this year.
What To Expect
If we had a comeback player award, I'd put Miller on the watch list. Even at age 38, with his ratings in that ballpark, I'd bet on an ERA closer to 3.50 than 5.97. Overall, I think the pitching will bounce back better than the hitting. Probably be between 70-80 wins.
SEA 46: 64-98
Big Offseason Moves
A whole bunch - trades, free agent signings, promotions. We've come to the end of the Juan Martinez/Sam Stock/
Doug Duncan/Jensen Helms era in Colorado, and something new begins.
The Good News
I like Yoslan Nunez' chances to flourish in the thin air. C Frank Graham will get his 50, but I don't think this lineup will be as dangerous as those of the recent past. There just wasn't much to hire this offseason.
Although it's a small sample size (3.71 ERA in 51 innings), Hugh Wolf seems to have what it takes to pitch in Colorado.
Good velocity + keep everything on the ground? Go get more of that.
The Bad News
In some recent-year previews, I've pointed out that Colorado's pitching was actually pretty good, citing their reasonably high finishes among team ERA's compiled on the road. For example, the HoH had the AL's 2nd-best road ERA in SEA 43.
But even that effort only got them 80 wins, so it's a thing of the past.
Maybe the plan now is to just go with the cheapest pitching staff possible, and load up on premium hitters over the course of several free agencies. Why not? But I'm pretty sure we'll see some spectacular ugliness from the likes of Carl Latham, Burke Yarnall (and he's probably the best of the lot) and Gaylord Wilson.
With most teams, I advocate paying more attention to defense and it goes double for Colorado. The 100+ errors and 60+ bad plays can't be a good recipe for an over-taxed, under-talented staff. And defense is still a cheap commodity.
What To Expect
The usual trends, as dictated by the ballpark, only moreso this year. With Durham retired as a ballpark, Colorado will almost certainly be last in ERA, and it has a chance to be spectacularly bad. And the lineup just isn't what it used to be. Good thing they've banked some wins against the mwr in recent years.
The usual trends, as dictated by the ballpark, only moreso this year. With Durham retired as a ballpark, Colorado will almost certainly be last in ERA, and it has a chance to be spectacularly bad. And the lineup just isn't what it used to be. Good thing they've banked some wins against the mwr in recent years.
SEA 46: 80-82
Big Offseason Moves
Pretty active free agency, although a lot of it was re-signing some of their own P's. Desi Cespedes getting away was a big deal - he's still got some good years left at 33. Pablo Valbuena is headed for retirement after a successful 15-year (some of which he got very well paid for) career. I'll always remember Pablo fondly as a throw-in in the trade that brought Sam Stock to my AL South team way back in ought twenty-nine.
The Good News
The Crue's calling card the last few years has been defense - evidenced last year by their incredible 107/12 +/-. 2B Tony Acosta had 30 good plays last year to lead the way, followed by 1B Clint Susac with 24. New SS Daryl Sample won't hurt in that regard, but I don't think he can hit enough to unseat the starter, Paolo Perez.
Susac is a pretty good offensive threat - he had his best year in S46 with .307/31/114. DH Jed Tallet is their other prime run producer (.248/24/102 S46).
The staff is annually in the top 5 in the AL - #1 last year, actually. The defense certainly helps, but it's a talented, albeit unflashy crew. They do have the most uniform rotation in Hobbs - all 5 (Hughes, Puffer, Ludwick, Alomar and Jenkins) have at least 85 control, moderate splits, and pretty good pitches.
Susac is a pretty good offensive threat - he had his best year in S46 with .307/31/114. DH Jed Tallet is their other prime run producer (.248/24/102 S46).
The staff is annually in the top 5 in the AL - #1 last year, actually. The defense certainly helps, but it's a talented, albeit unflashy crew. They do have the most uniform rotation in Hobbs - all 5 (Hughes, Puffer, Ludwick, Alomar and Jenkins) have at least 85 control, moderate splits, and pretty good pitches.
The Bad News
Good pitching, excellent defense...what's not to like? Well, a lineup that literally pulls them down to 80 wins. 733 runs just won't cut it (although, if they had hit their expected win % last year they would have won the Division). They're gonna lose some runs with Cespedes gone from CF...they just have to get more than a .684 OPS in RF and a .731 in LF even if it costs them some defense.
What To Expect
They could be in the division race for sure, even with a lighter lineup. When you have top pitching and top defense, you're never out of it. They'll need better luck than last year, though.
SEA 46: 85-77, Won Division (3rd in 4 years), advanced to Division Round and lost to Kansas City
Big Offseason Moves
2 nice budget FA deals with RP Will O'Brien and SP Al Benitez...a little upgrade over the 3 departures.
The Good News
They simply have the best 2B (Damon Ainsworth - .310/29/85) / 3B (Gregg Stock - .301/31/109) /SS (Eddie Fonville - .279/28/88) combo in the game. Fonville is such a unique blend of defensive skill and hitting chops...it gives the Mongeese a big leg up. Add Willie Taylor to that mix and you've got the foundation for an elite lineup.
The glamor is on offense but the performance is on the mound - Vegas' pitching actually ranked better (6th in Team ERA) than their offense (8th). 8 pitchers posted sub-4 ERA's last year - the big-innings guy and #1 starter is Micah Scharein (16-10, 3.84 ERA in 241 innings).
The glamor is on offense but the performance is on the mound - Vegas' pitching actually ranked better (6th in Team ERA) than their offense (8th). 8 pitchers posted sub-4 ERA's last year - the big-innings guy and #1 starter is Micah Scharein (16-10, 3.84 ERA in 241 innings).
The Bad News
Once past the Big 4, the lineup production falls off. Fu-Te Okajima is adequate at best for a 1B or DH, and they have yet to fill the other slot.
The late-inning RP group always come up with someone who produces, you just never know who it's going to be from season to season - not the worst bullpen problem in the world but not one that inspires playoff confidence either.
The late-inning RP group always come up with someone who produces, you just never know who it's going to be from season to season - not the worst bullpen problem in the world but not one that inspires playoff confidence either.
What To Expect
This squad is just good enough to make it to the WS if they get hot. But if they falter, LA could take the division from them. Ultimately I think Vegas will prevail in the West, but not without a tussle.
This squad is just good enough to make it to the WS if they get hot. But if they falter, LA could take the division from them. Ultimately I think Vegas will prevail in the West, but not without a tussle.
