Looks like an incredible crop of rookies ready to make their mark next season, with a strong tilt toward position players. Note: I did these by scanning AAA (and AA very quickly) rosters, so I could have missed some of next year's rookies who got promoted late this season - let me know and I'll do an addendum.
#1 - Tony Arias, SP - Jacksonville: Arias was a $24MM - bonused IFA in Season 39 who projects as a 150-inning starter or long reliever...or maybe a closer. No weaknesses and he'll only get better. Don't see him winning Cy Young's due to the low stamina, but he's a good bet for next year's ROY and could definitely win FOY's if he's used as a closer. 3.34 ERA in 99 AA innings this year.
#2 - Gerald Lim, C
- Montgomery - #2 pick of the Season 39 draft clobbered High A pitching
to the tune of .366/34/142 this season. Excellent power and splits
combined with better than average contact/eye...will be the best overall
hitter in this group. His splits improved by 10 points each in his 3rd
pro season, so he's going to get a pretty good improvement next year.
Good pitch-calling ability but inferior arm for a ML C...might start his
career as a DH.
#3 - Francisco Guerrero, 1B - San Francisco: $29MM IFA in Season 39, he's poised to take over at 1B with Harvey Tracy's contract expiring. Hit .362/35/139 in AA and on-based a ridiculous .506. His glove and (especially) arm will be a bit of
a liability at 1B, but his bat is too good to keep in the minors again.
#4 - Lorenzo Rosario, CF - Jacksonville: $23.5MM IFA, will likely take over in CF for the ID's next season. He doesn't look like he'll be a star either offensively or defensively, but his power probably means a few Silver Sluggers. .296/47/147 in AAA this year.
#5 - Alexander Pickett, RF
- Florida: .331/46/146 in AAA for Season 38's #1. 40-HR power...I
think he'll be a little better/more consistent on-base guy than fellow
RF Estrada, although I think their careers will end up being very
similar. They could both end up being on the AL ROY ballot next year,
and you could do worse than betting those 2 against the field to win the
ROY.
#6 - Harry Estrada, RF
- Kansas City: #11 pick in the Season 38 draft was slowed by injury
this year but still posted a fine .331/30/97 AAA season. Solid defender
in RF, 40-HR power, .340-.350 on-base skills and some stolen bases to
boot. He could be a ROY contender next year and will likely see a few
All-Star games.
#7 - Chick Rosenthal, RF - Richmond: #14 pick of Season 38 is not quite the bat of fellow RF's Pickett and Estrada
but
gets the edge on defense. .316/37/121 this year in AAA - probably
closer to a .330 on-base guy than Pickett or Estrada's .340-.350 but could have
comparable power. Another bonus: faster and a better baserunner than
the other 2.
#8 - Junior Burawa, SS
- New York: Ready to step in as the everyday SS, #18 pick in the Season
37 draft looks like he'll be a pretty good batting average/on-base type
hitter with the occasional 15-HR season. Not a GG-caliber SS, but
solid. Likely to see a few All-Star games and end up with a Silver
Slugger or 3 over the fireplace.
#9 - Happy Cepeda, RP - Kansas City: Home-grown reliever was #19 in the Season 37 draft. 9 saves, 2.51 ERA in 89 AAA innings this year, his velocity/flyball skills probably make him KC's closer of the future.
#10 - Edgard Mendoza, RP - Kansas City: $12.5MM IFA in Season 38, he's a near-clone of bullpen-mate Cepeda, but with the advantage of being a surer bet against lefty hitters. Whoever wins the closer job, late innings against KC are going to be tough sledding for a long time to come.
#11 - Thomas Alcantera, SP - Philadelphia: $17MM IFA in Season 38, he pitched in AA this year and went 12-9, 2.87 in 159 IP. His splits are not overly impressive, but I think his 4 very good pitches will more than offset the splits deficit. I don't think it's a 100% certainty that Philly promotes him next year, although he's ML-ready and didn't improve much this season - otherwise I might have moved him a bit higher in the top 10.
#12 - Alex Kim, OF
- Cincinnati: As a $37MM IFA, I think you have to say his development
has been a little disappointing, although he'll be a good MLer. He hit
.331/29/136 in AAA this year. His best position is going to be LF,
where he might contend for a GG or 2...putting him at 1B (where he would definitely
win GG's) wouldn't be crazy, but he'd be an inferior hitter there.
Typical ML season will be something like .266, 32 HR's, .331 OBP.
#13 - Shigetoshi Bong, SP
- Richmond: $16MM IFA in Season 39; he makes this list somewhat due to
the shortage of ML-ready true SP's. The hope here is that his very
good pitches outweigh the shaky splits (especially that 51 vL). He's
performed well at 3 MiL levels, topped by this year's 20 wins and 2.58
ERA in 185 AAA innings
#14 - Eddie Fonville, IF - Las Vegas: only 2 years in the minors, but Season 40's #1 overall could get the call - Vegas has a hole at either 2B or 3B (whichever Stock doesn't play). Hit .280/39/111 at 3 minor-league levels this year. Don't expect big production next year if he does get the call, but he's still improving and could eventually become a .275/35-HR infielder. His defense is ready for 2B or 3B in the majors and will likely get to SS level...maybe very good SS level.
#15 - Bartolo Espinosa, 2B - New Orleans: I don't expect greatness but he should have the opportunity with 2B Pressley
going into his 3rd arb season. He hit .322 and on-based .404 in AAA -
not bad for a relative bargain $8.3MM IFA (SEA 38). Not a GG'er at 2B
but should ring up a decent number of good plays.
#16 - B.J. Kirby, DH - Richmond: with Willie Germen signed for 2 more seasons, I'm not sure he sees the majors next year unless 1 of them is traded. But he's definitely a Major League hitter - .371/56/184 in AAA this season. Kirby was the #24 pick in Season 39.
#17 - Peter Stockton, CF - Oakland: #9 pick of Season 37, he's another ML-ready guy who is probably blocked in OAK and may need a trade (of him or an OF in front of him) to see the Show. .325/38/154 in AAA this year.
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