I've tweaked the mwr proposal a bit to address concerns about someone taking over a truly dreadful situation (many bad contracts with bad players) and also added an option on the penalty. Here's our mwr as it stands now:
5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, and 120 games over any 2 year span.
5.a "Penalty" Any owner who fails to meet the 55/120 win requirement
will be removed from the league prior to roll-over into the next season.
I'm proposing that we amend it to:
5.
"MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any
one season, 120 over 2 seasons, 190 over 3 seasons, and 265 over 4
seasons, starting in Season 43.
5.a "Penalty" Any owner who fails to meet the mwr will be removed from the league prior to roll-over into the next season, except that, for one instance in any 4-year period, the owner missing the mwr make elect to stay in the league but will forfeit his first-round draft choice the following season. The forfeiture will be accomplished by placing a worthless minor league prospect (current core ratings should be in the twenties or worse) as the #1 ranked player in their Amateur Draft prospect ranking and are not allowed to offer a contract to this player. Failure to comply with any penalties issued for these violations will result in immediate removal from the league.
FAQ
1. When does it start? Next season - Season 43.
2. When will anything practically change? The first season when the number of wins required would actually go up from the current level would be Season 45. The penalty option would start next season.
3. Seems a little hard to keep up with the math... - I made a spreadsheet that we'll update every season - see the tab up top called "MWR Current Season" which now has just the mwr's for each team this season.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Off-season trades part 2
Dakar's reply to yesterday:
"Actually my main reason for that deal and trying to move a couple more player in that pre arb boat was to move up similar players and create space on the 40 to protect a couple more prospects. Getting anything useful with 3 years left before R5 was just a bonus."
Now for the trade analysis:
The San Francisco Fog trade Fergie Schmidt to the Helena Hot Heads for Collin Morel
I don’t follow this trade. Maybe some one will explain it to me. It’s kind of like the book Red Badge of Courage. People tell me its good, but I tried to read it and couldn’t finish it. I guess Helena saves 1.1 million while also getting younger and a little more defensively flexible and San Francisco gets the better bat, but both players are league average at best so I don’t get it.
The Salem Witch Hunters trade Arthur Taylor and Yean Carlos Posada to the Montgomery Scotts for David Seneca and Elrod Parker
As you may have read I love what the Scotts are doing. They pick up Posada who has a terrific arm (though with limited stamina) on a terrific deal (7.25 mil for 3 seasons). There are only a few pitchers that are difference makers (maybe 10) and he is one of them. With his lifetime 2.83 era and 1.10 whip I am drooling. PLUS they get Taylor who has the defense to play second base and lead off as evidenced by .352 lifetime OBP and 249 steals over the past 4 seasons on 259 attempts.
Now they did have to pay a pretty penny. Seneca is only 21, but could play in the ML right now elite speed and base running and decent contact and batting eye. By the time he is 23 he could be stealing 70 a year on .365 OBP. I wish his splits were a bit higher, but he is so young that I may still get my wish. Elrod Parker is a high variance prospect. I believe he’ll end up as a back-of-the-rotation starter. My advance scouts believe he will have a massive improvement and top out as a #2 starter. We will see.
People who play HBD are often allergic to age and overvalue prospects. I love the Scotts approach her taking advantage of that. Taylor and Posada are terrific now. Maybe Seneca and Parker will get there too, but who knows. Why not win now. For the witch hinters it allows them to get out of 15.5 mil of contract this season and next while at the same time picking up 2 sure fire ML’ers.
New Owner Interview - pimpbotlove
1. Who is pimpbotlove in real life?
I’m an author and reporter/editor, living in the Boston area with my extra-forgiving sportswriter wife and an awesome two-year-old. Spent about a decade on the road as a baseball beat writer, mostly with the Wall Street Journal covering the Yankees, before quitting that in 2015 to go deep inside the then-emerging world of Daily Fantasy Sports as a professional gambler, and write the tell-all book about the industry, Dueling with Kings. Working on my second book now, about Treasure Hunting, and am an editor at The Athletic, running the Boston edition of the site. I also commish the BBWAA world, which is a world made up exclusively of professional baseball writers.
When I released my last book, one of the articles written about it actually included a bunch of stuff about HBD and whatifsports, so that was kinda fun to get this quasi-secret obsession out into the open:
https://www.vocativ.com/falsestart/409122/sportswriter-daily-fantasy-sports-obsession/index.html
2. Best or worst HBD moment?
Brought up, developed, won several world series with a rock-star HOF player named Adam Langerhans with my main team, the Toronto Argonauts in the BBWAA world. At the end of his career, around age 40, ratings all in the 30-40-range, I brought him up from the minors for the final game of the season, to give him one last at-bat in a game against our longtime Canadian rival, the Montreal Sacre Bleu. With the game tied in extra innings, Langerhans walked to the plate and delivered a pinch-hit, walk-off home run in his only at-bat of the season, and the final plate appearance of his career. He retired immediately after, and waltzed into the Hall on the first ballot. I’m tearing up just thinking about it.
3. Best or worst sports fan moment?
Hrmm… probably when Derek Jeter got mad at me for getting him in trouble with his girlfriend, for a (super innocuous!) tweet I put out in Spring Training in like 2013 or so. “Best” in the sense that ha, I unwittingly got this crazily famous guy I used to watch in high school in the 90’s in trouble with his supermodel girlfriend (it’s fine, they got married and have a kid now, no harm no foul), which is funny and weird in a very meta way, worst in the sense that it damaged my relationship with him and made my job more difficult… but really both because it reinforces that once you’re in that world, you can’t really be a sports fan anymore, none of it resonates in the same way, the fan experience is kinda polluted forever. I only watch English soccer now because it’s a far-enough-removed experience from the American sports world that I can still get into it.
I ended up turning the Jeter thing into a funny-ish story when he retired, if you care.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-glimpse-into-derek-jeters-world-1411687857
(And we eventually made up.)
4. It's you and 3 guests, alive or dead, real or fictional, human or otherwise, around the dinner table. Who are your 3 guests?
Arnold Schwarzenegger, because I’ve always been fascinated by people who can succeed across multiple disciplines, jumping from one world to the next; Julius Caesar, because his drive to power and incredible military genius was also married with a tremendous talent for historical writing; and my dad, because, well, I miss him and he'd like to have met those dudes.
5. What's the most underrated player rating in HBD?
Speed/baserunning. You can do a lot with those baserunning & basestealing sliders if you have a team built to exploit them.
6. If you were an HBD player, what would your ratings be?
Oooooh it would not be pretty. I have (had, mostly, at age 39 it’s starting to fail) one tool, which is speed. I consider myself legitimately fast, and used that to at least decent effect in high school ball and other sports, but everything else is worthless. I’d be an incredibly weak-hitting 2nd baseman, good range, ok glove, terribad arm, and probably like a 45-10-55-35-40 for the hitting ratings, with decent baserunning and good speed. Oh, and good bunting! I was a good bunter. Woohoo.
7. What's the significance if any of your HBD username?
Back in the ‘90s, there was a Conan O’Brien sketch called “Pimpbot,” which high school me thought was the funniest thing in the damn world, about a robot pimp. So when I needed a username for Yahoo or AOL or something in like 1997, I tried “Pimpbot” and it was taken… so I figured, what matters most to a pimpbot? Lovvvvvve, baby. So I tacked that on, liked it, and ended up using it every time I needed a random username for a random website that was 100% guaranteed not to be taken.
(In that vein, Pimpbotlove also ended up being my Daily Fantasy username, and became what I was known by at these DFS events, which was very strange to be at, like, the Playboy Mansion or someplace and dudes will walk by and be all “what up Pimpbot!” Strange times.)
I’m an author and reporter/editor, living in the Boston area with my extra-forgiving sportswriter wife and an awesome two-year-old. Spent about a decade on the road as a baseball beat writer, mostly with the Wall Street Journal covering the Yankees, before quitting that in 2015 to go deep inside the then-emerging world of Daily Fantasy Sports as a professional gambler, and write the tell-all book about the industry, Dueling with Kings. Working on my second book now, about Treasure Hunting, and am an editor at The Athletic, running the Boston edition of the site. I also commish the BBWAA world, which is a world made up exclusively of professional baseball writers.
When I released my last book, one of the articles written about it actually included a bunch of stuff about HBD and whatifsports, so that was kinda fun to get this quasi-secret obsession out into the open:
https://www.vocativ.com/falsestart/409122/sportswriter-daily-fantasy-sports-obsession/index.html
2. Best or worst HBD moment?
Brought up, developed, won several world series with a rock-star HOF player named Adam Langerhans with my main team, the Toronto Argonauts in the BBWAA world. At the end of his career, around age 40, ratings all in the 30-40-range, I brought him up from the minors for the final game of the season, to give him one last at-bat in a game against our longtime Canadian rival, the Montreal Sacre Bleu. With the game tied in extra innings, Langerhans walked to the plate and delivered a pinch-hit, walk-off home run in his only at-bat of the season, and the final plate appearance of his career. He retired immediately after, and waltzed into the Hall on the first ballot. I’m tearing up just thinking about it.
3. Best or worst sports fan moment?
Hrmm… probably when Derek Jeter got mad at me for getting him in trouble with his girlfriend, for a (super innocuous!) tweet I put out in Spring Training in like 2013 or so. “Best” in the sense that ha, I unwittingly got this crazily famous guy I used to watch in high school in the 90’s in trouble with his supermodel girlfriend (it’s fine, they got married and have a kid now, no harm no foul), which is funny and weird in a very meta way, worst in the sense that it damaged my relationship with him and made my job more difficult… but really both because it reinforces that once you’re in that world, you can’t really be a sports fan anymore, none of it resonates in the same way, the fan experience is kinda polluted forever. I only watch English soccer now because it’s a far-enough-removed experience from the American sports world that I can still get into it.
I ended up turning the Jeter thing into a funny-ish story when he retired, if you care.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-glimpse-into-derek-jeters-world-1411687857
(And we eventually made up.)
4. It's you and 3 guests, alive or dead, real or fictional, human or otherwise, around the dinner table. Who are your 3 guests?
Arnold Schwarzenegger, because I’ve always been fascinated by people who can succeed across multiple disciplines, jumping from one world to the next; Julius Caesar, because his drive to power and incredible military genius was also married with a tremendous talent for historical writing; and my dad, because, well, I miss him and he'd like to have met those dudes.
5. What's the most underrated player rating in HBD?
Speed/baserunning. You can do a lot with those baserunning & basestealing sliders if you have a team built to exploit them.
6. If you were an HBD player, what would your ratings be?
Oooooh it would not be pretty. I have (had, mostly, at age 39 it’s starting to fail) one tool, which is speed. I consider myself legitimately fast, and used that to at least decent effect in high school ball and other sports, but everything else is worthless. I’d be an incredibly weak-hitting 2nd baseman, good range, ok glove, terribad arm, and probably like a 45-10-55-35-40 for the hitting ratings, with decent baserunning and good speed. Oh, and good bunting! I was a good bunter. Woohoo.
7. What's the significance if any of your HBD username?
Back in the ‘90s, there was a Conan O’Brien sketch called “Pimpbot,” which high school me thought was the funniest thing in the damn world, about a robot pimp. So when I needed a username for Yahoo or AOL or something in like 1997, I tried “Pimpbot” and it was taken… so I figured, what matters most to a pimpbot? Lovvvvvve, baby. So I tacked that on, liked it, and ended up using it every time I needed a random username for a random website that was 100% guaranteed not to be taken.
(In that vein, Pimpbotlove also ended up being my Daily Fantasy username, and became what I was known by at these DFS events, which was very strange to be at, like, the Playboy Mansion or someplace and dudes will walk by and be all “what up Pimpbot!” Strange times.)
Off-Season trades part 1
The Helena Hot Heads trade Carlos Valdvia and Alex Vargas for to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s Lorenzo Rosario, Gil Clemens, and Dario Chong.
Only 2 seasons from being the champ, but coming off of a 22 game slide from last season, the Hot Heads are rebuilding. The deal moves 2 of their 3 biggest assets all at one. Carlos Valdvia is a first ballot Hall of Famer at the tail end of his peak. An 8-time all-star, 3-time MVP, 5-time silver slugger he still has the ability to hit well over .300, slug 35 home runs, steal 35 bases efficiently, and have a .370+ OBP. He won’t be winning any more MVP’s but he could be on the fringe if things go well. Vargas is 27-year old that is first rate setup man. He could be a closer if needed, but will be hat his best as the first guy out of the pen.
The Hot Heads clear had a Draft Day mind set, their slip of paper reading “Lorenzo Rosario no matter what”. Bingo and what a prize they got! A 23-year old CF will be a 40/30 guy this season. Think Andruw Jones with only average range. Rosario will not have the career Vladvia has, but should be a better player by season 44. Clemens is “just a guy” setup man, but he ML quality and is 24 and cheap. Chong is can replace Vladvia position wise, and is 26 and fine. He’s a below average ML starting RF or overqualified backup. Both Clemens and Chong are totally usable and not the AAAA guys that can sometime be trade fillers.
This Hot Heads has to give up a lot start their rebuild, but mission accomplished. The Fake ID’s are clearly betting it all on repeating their World Series and this deal makes them the dominate team in Roy Hobbs. However, given Valdvia’s age if they do not win another World Series championship in the next two seasons this deal is a mistake.
The Pittsburgh Dream Eaters trade Julio Cano and Miguel Cedeno to Montgomery Scotts for Vasco Alonso, Josh Long, and Marv Lemon.
The “other” huge deal so far. Cano is a terrific. The 30-year old right hander is a #1 starter full stop. With 2 years left on his deal and only being 30 he shouldn’t see any decline whatsoever. An amazing pickup for the Scotts. Cedeno, 31, is a classic setup A with era’s consistently around 3.50. He’s had success as a closer, but would be below league average in that capacity. As a setup A’s a top 10 guy. Not as good as Vargas from the previous deal, but only one step below. Another nice pick up.
The Scotts get a nice haul as well. Alonso may become what Cano is a top flight prospect. I do not have them ranked, but eye balling it I’d guess some where between 6-10 in the league. A fair trade for Cano on his own. Long is a high variance 24-year RF’er. One season he will hit 35 HR’s and drive in 100. The next he won’t even be able to sustain his spot in the line up. A useful piece as long as he isn’t one of the main cog in your machine. I had a girlfriend at lot like Marv Lemon. Half the time I couldn’t stand her, but when I would take her to party or home for a holiday everyone loved her. Lemon’s defense is so elite all 32 teams could find a spot on their 25 man for him, but that bat will make him hard to sustain in the line up. In the end I love this trade for both sides. Very fair and probably improves both franchises. Wait, I don’t want the Dream Eaters or the Scotts to win. I want to win. I HATE THIS TRADE!!!!
The Colorado House of Horrors trade Butch Vaughn to Kansas City Jayhawks for Brian Neill and K.J. Morse
Butch Vaughn is a 19-year old prospect who projects to be 3rd/4th starter. Like Dakar’s HBD skills, serviceable, but nothing special. Brian Neill in a nice reserve, shortstop with elite defensive skills one year from getting paid more than he is worth. K.J. Morse is a strong bench player with defense enough to play everywhere but SS and C and enough power to make some late innings trouble. If he’s starting for you than you will not make the playoffs. However, a decent piece.
This trade is Dakar plowing under his crop because he isn’t yet ready to compete. Dakar was going to get no value out of the 2 wins Morse and Neill would produce and Colorado might. In return, KC gets a guy they will eventually package into something they really like and will be some middle-of-the-road team’s back of the rotation starter. A fair trade for both teams.
The Oklahoma City Apocalypse trade Frank Graham to Colorado House of Horror for Alan Martin
Frank Graham is one my favorites. I know I am an NL team, but I’ll get him back at some point anyway. He already 40 HR power and he is barely old enough drink. Couple that with plus contact and batting eye and he is he is a 900 OPS for days kind of guy. He just lacks any obvious defensive position. Other than a strong arm, he can’t really do anything. Couple that with some durability issues and he is an imperfect player, but a fun one.
I am not sure what Alex Martin is. I think he will be able to graduate from LF to 2B which will make him more usable. He as a strong enough arm he probably would be able to play 3rd eventually if he had to. At the plate other than a nice speed/base running combo he lacks any obvious marketable skill. He runs the strong possibility of being a tweener Not enough bat to play COF or 2B and not enough glove to justify 3B or SS.
I like this trade for Colorado as it takes no imagination to see what Graham is as a ML’er. I do not like it for OKC. It smacks of a situation where blanch had decided to trade him and then took the best offer. There is just no reason Graham needed to be traded now. He would have probably benefited by banking Graham and waiting for the right deal to use him as a piece for.
The Jacksonville Fake ID’s trade Vasco Salas to the Colorado House of Horrors for Murray Hermansen and $200,0000
A very minor deal. The Fake ID’s send a guy they were going to cut for an emergency catcher should one of their ML catchers get injured. The Fake ID's pick up a tiny amount of cash just to even the value proposition out. Colorado saves probably a million over what Salas have received in free agency for a league average pitcher.
Honolulu Luau Dawgs trade Carlos Polonia and $1,776,000 to the Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners for Jumbo Uchida, Weldon Barker, and Jung-ho Chen.
This is the most interesting trade made so far and the one I am the most jealous of (from the Jackson side). First, is that a terrific amount of money or what!!!! I once had a trade in Cobbfather where the guy demanded getting cash from me, I said the trade was fair without the cash, he reiterated that he wasn’t doing it without me deferring at least a little bit of the salary and me offering the same trade with $1 in cash. He accepted and said it was worth accepting just for the laugh of having it go the league with $1 of cash attached to it. When I trade for Polonia at the deadline don’t be surprised.
Anyway, Polonia is a lot like my basketball game at age 42. Terrific in short bursts (consistently over 900 OPS, super high on-base, able to play at least 4, if not 5 positions, just with super low durability). He’s kind of like bread at Outback, no one goes to Outback for the bread, but you know you have 3 pieces once you are there. Polonia is not going to lead you to the playoffs, he can’t give you enough at bats. However, if you already have a playoff caliber squad then you go real easy on him though the year—250 at bats—so that once the playoffs start you can unleash the firepower of a fully armed and operational battle station. With that much rest he’ll be 100 all the way through and probably be your personal playoff MVP. Trust me, SOOOO valuable in the playoffs. Plus he’s only has 1 year left. . . so jealous Jackson got him.
Honolulu did fine back. They saved 3.1 million or so. Plus Uchida is a functional long reliever, nothing special. Barker is only in the deal to make the money I am sure. He’s not worth a roster spot to me, but he can be useful in single batter opportunities I guess. Chen is the nice asset here. 2 years away from the majors, he projects as a really high-end utility likely to his all of his defensive projections.
Honolulu saves money by giving up an asset that was not in their future plans while still picking up a nice defense first SS, Jackson gets mf’er at that tail end of his contract. Everyone did fine.
Only 2 seasons from being the champ, but coming off of a 22 game slide from last season, the Hot Heads are rebuilding. The deal moves 2 of their 3 biggest assets all at one. Carlos Valdvia is a first ballot Hall of Famer at the tail end of his peak. An 8-time all-star, 3-time MVP, 5-time silver slugger he still has the ability to hit well over .300, slug 35 home runs, steal 35 bases efficiently, and have a .370+ OBP. He won’t be winning any more MVP’s but he could be on the fringe if things go well. Vargas is 27-year old that is first rate setup man. He could be a closer if needed, but will be hat his best as the first guy out of the pen.
The Hot Heads clear had a Draft Day mind set, their slip of paper reading “Lorenzo Rosario no matter what”. Bingo and what a prize they got! A 23-year old CF will be a 40/30 guy this season. Think Andruw Jones with only average range. Rosario will not have the career Vladvia has, but should be a better player by season 44. Clemens is “just a guy” setup man, but he ML quality and is 24 and cheap. Chong is can replace Vladvia position wise, and is 26 and fine. He’s a below average ML starting RF or overqualified backup. Both Clemens and Chong are totally usable and not the AAAA guys that can sometime be trade fillers.
This Hot Heads has to give up a lot start their rebuild, but mission accomplished. The Fake ID’s are clearly betting it all on repeating their World Series and this deal makes them the dominate team in Roy Hobbs. However, given Valdvia’s age if they do not win another World Series championship in the next two seasons this deal is a mistake.
The Pittsburgh Dream Eaters trade Julio Cano and Miguel Cedeno to Montgomery Scotts for Vasco Alonso, Josh Long, and Marv Lemon.
The “other” huge deal so far. Cano is a terrific. The 30-year old right hander is a #1 starter full stop. With 2 years left on his deal and only being 30 he shouldn’t see any decline whatsoever. An amazing pickup for the Scotts. Cedeno, 31, is a classic setup A with era’s consistently around 3.50. He’s had success as a closer, but would be below league average in that capacity. As a setup A’s a top 10 guy. Not as good as Vargas from the previous deal, but only one step below. Another nice pick up.
The Scotts get a nice haul as well. Alonso may become what Cano is a top flight prospect. I do not have them ranked, but eye balling it I’d guess some where between 6-10 in the league. A fair trade for Cano on his own. Long is a high variance 24-year RF’er. One season he will hit 35 HR’s and drive in 100. The next he won’t even be able to sustain his spot in the line up. A useful piece as long as he isn’t one of the main cog in your machine. I had a girlfriend at lot like Marv Lemon. Half the time I couldn’t stand her, but when I would take her to party or home for a holiday everyone loved her. Lemon’s defense is so elite all 32 teams could find a spot on their 25 man for him, but that bat will make him hard to sustain in the line up. In the end I love this trade for both sides. Very fair and probably improves both franchises. Wait, I don’t want the Dream Eaters or the Scotts to win. I want to win. I HATE THIS TRADE!!!!
The Colorado House of Horrors trade Butch Vaughn to Kansas City Jayhawks for Brian Neill and K.J. Morse
Butch Vaughn is a 19-year old prospect who projects to be 3rd/4th starter. Like Dakar’s HBD skills, serviceable, but nothing special. Brian Neill in a nice reserve, shortstop with elite defensive skills one year from getting paid more than he is worth. K.J. Morse is a strong bench player with defense enough to play everywhere but SS and C and enough power to make some late innings trouble. If he’s starting for you than you will not make the playoffs. However, a decent piece.
This trade is Dakar plowing under his crop because he isn’t yet ready to compete. Dakar was going to get no value out of the 2 wins Morse and Neill would produce and Colorado might. In return, KC gets a guy they will eventually package into something they really like and will be some middle-of-the-road team’s back of the rotation starter. A fair trade for both teams.
The Oklahoma City Apocalypse trade Frank Graham to Colorado House of Horror for Alan Martin
Frank Graham is one my favorites. I know I am an NL team, but I’ll get him back at some point anyway. He already 40 HR power and he is barely old enough drink. Couple that with plus contact and batting eye and he is he is a 900 OPS for days kind of guy. He just lacks any obvious defensive position. Other than a strong arm, he can’t really do anything. Couple that with some durability issues and he is an imperfect player, but a fun one.
I am not sure what Alex Martin is. I think he will be able to graduate from LF to 2B which will make him more usable. He as a strong enough arm he probably would be able to play 3rd eventually if he had to. At the plate other than a nice speed/base running combo he lacks any obvious marketable skill. He runs the strong possibility of being a tweener Not enough bat to play COF or 2B and not enough glove to justify 3B or SS.
I like this trade for Colorado as it takes no imagination to see what Graham is as a ML’er. I do not like it for OKC. It smacks of a situation where blanch had decided to trade him and then took the best offer. There is just no reason Graham needed to be traded now. He would have probably benefited by banking Graham and waiting for the right deal to use him as a piece for.
The Jacksonville Fake ID’s trade Vasco Salas to the Colorado House of Horrors for Murray Hermansen and $200,0000
A very minor deal. The Fake ID’s send a guy they were going to cut for an emergency catcher should one of their ML catchers get injured. The Fake ID's pick up a tiny amount of cash just to even the value proposition out. Colorado saves probably a million over what Salas have received in free agency for a league average pitcher.
Honolulu Luau Dawgs trade Carlos Polonia and $1,776,000 to the Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners for Jumbo Uchida, Weldon Barker, and Jung-ho Chen.
This is the most interesting trade made so far and the one I am the most jealous of (from the Jackson side). First, is that a terrific amount of money or what!!!! I once had a trade in Cobbfather where the guy demanded getting cash from me, I said the trade was fair without the cash, he reiterated that he wasn’t doing it without me deferring at least a little bit of the salary and me offering the same trade with $1 in cash. He accepted and said it was worth accepting just for the laugh of having it go the league with $1 of cash attached to it. When I trade for Polonia at the deadline don’t be surprised.
Anyway, Polonia is a lot like my basketball game at age 42. Terrific in short bursts (consistently over 900 OPS, super high on-base, able to play at least 4, if not 5 positions, just with super low durability). He’s kind of like bread at Outback, no one goes to Outback for the bread, but you know you have 3 pieces once you are there. Polonia is not going to lead you to the playoffs, he can’t give you enough at bats. However, if you already have a playoff caliber squad then you go real easy on him though the year—250 at bats—so that once the playoffs start you can unleash the firepower of a fully armed and operational battle station. With that much rest he’ll be 100 all the way through and probably be your personal playoff MVP. Trust me, SOOOO valuable in the playoffs. Plus he’s only has 1 year left. . . so jealous Jackson got him.
Honolulu did fine back. They saved 3.1 million or so. Plus Uchida is a functional long reliever, nothing special. Barker is only in the deal to make the money I am sure. He’s not worth a roster spot to me, but he can be useful in single batter opportunities I guess. Chen is the nice asset here. 2 years away from the majors, he projects as a really high-end utility likely to his all of his defensive projections.
Honolulu saves money by giving up an asset that was not in their future plans while still picking up a nice defense first SS, Jackson gets mf’er at that tail end of his contract. Everyone did fine.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
New Owner Interview With dbreez
1. Who is dbreez in real life?
29 year old commercial real estate insurance agent. Lives in Oakland, CA and huge fan of the A’s (cmon waterfront ball park!). Still plays recreational baseball and golfs an unhealthy amount.
2. Best or worst HBD moment?
Too many bad moments to count, but drafting Daniel McGee (85 overall pitcher with mid 90s splits) in Hornsby with the 11th pick was quite the day. Also first Championship.
3. Best or worst sports fan moment?
Best – Being at the last game of the 2012 regular season when the A’s roared back to win the division against the Josh Hamilton led Texas Rangers.
Close 2nd – Dubs winning their first title and then proceed to “ruin” the NBA.
Worst – Derek Jeter’s cutoff play to beat the A’s in the Wild Card round. (WHY THE HECK WAS HE THERE????) Still say Giambi was out whether he slid or not.
4. It's you and 3 guests, alive or dead, real or fictional, human or otherwise, around the dinner table. Who are your 3 guests?
Larry David
Action Bronson
Klay Thompson
5. What's the most underrated player rating in HBD?
Groundball/Flyball tendency
6. If you were an HBD player, what would your ratings be?
In my college prime:
Position Player:
Contact: 30
Power: 75
VL: 40
VR: 70
Eye: 25
Bunting: 0
Range 70
Glove 70
Arm Strength: 80
Accuracy: 65
Pitching:
Velo High control way down haha
29 year old commercial real estate insurance agent. Lives in Oakland, CA and huge fan of the A’s (cmon waterfront ball park!). Still plays recreational baseball and golfs an unhealthy amount.
2. Best or worst HBD moment?
Too many bad moments to count, but drafting Daniel McGee (85 overall pitcher with mid 90s splits) in Hornsby with the 11th pick was quite the day. Also first Championship.
3. Best or worst sports fan moment?
Best – Being at the last game of the 2012 regular season when the A’s roared back to win the division against the Josh Hamilton led Texas Rangers.
Close 2nd – Dubs winning their first title and then proceed to “ruin” the NBA.
Worst – Derek Jeter’s cutoff play to beat the A’s in the Wild Card round. (WHY THE HECK WAS HE THERE????) Still say Giambi was out whether he slid or not.
4. It's you and 3 guests, alive or dead, real or fictional, human or otherwise, around the dinner table. Who are your 3 guests?
Larry David
Action Bronson
Klay Thompson
5. What's the most underrated player rating in HBD?
Groundball/Flyball tendency
6. If you were an HBD player, what would your ratings be?
In my college prime:
Position Player:
Contact: 30
Power: 75
VL: 40
VR: 70
Eye: 25
Bunting: 0
Range 70
Glove 70
Arm Strength: 80
Accuracy: 65
Pitching:
Velo High control way down haha
Monday, February 25, 2019
Why The Expanded MWR? Part 1 of Maybe A Few
Good to see the MWR proposal generating lotsa discussion (thanks again for making it all constructive so far). Everybody who's spoken up has made good points and I've learned something from all of them.
OK, to set the stage, there are attempts to quantitatively measure the quality of HBD worlds. I'm sure most of you know this but a little review and analysis is relevant to this question of "eliteness".
About every or so I think, HBDer mchales_army produces a ranking of HBD worlds. You can see the latest ranking, done last Spring, at:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=509033
He ranks each world by turnover, time between seasons, and a parity score which is a composite of bunch of factors (like # of 100-win and 100-loss teams, # of different teams in playoffs last 4 years, etc.).
You can dig into it but the summary for Hobbs is:
Wait time between seasons: Elite - #5 out of 141
Turnover: Pretty good - #30 out of 141
Parity: Not so good - #66 out of 141
Overall: #45 out of 141 - in the upper reaches of "Above Average"
So what?
Well, I have questions but will leave them for next post. Just wanted to introduce this idea.
OK, to set the stage, there are attempts to quantitatively measure the quality of HBD worlds. I'm sure most of you know this but a little review and analysis is relevant to this question of "eliteness".
About every or so I think, HBDer mchales_army produces a ranking of HBD worlds. You can see the latest ranking, done last Spring, at:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=509033
He ranks each world by turnover, time between seasons, and a parity score which is a composite of bunch of factors (like # of 100-win and 100-loss teams, # of different teams in playoffs last 4 years, etc.).
You can dig into it but the summary for Hobbs is:
Wait time between seasons: Elite - #5 out of 141
Turnover: Pretty good - #30 out of 141
Parity: Not so good - #66 out of 141
Overall: #45 out of 141 - in the upper reaches of "Above Average"
So what?
Well, I have questions but will leave them for next post. Just wanted to introduce this idea.
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Proposal To Amend The Minimum Win Requirement Rule
I'm proposing a change to our minimum win requirement rule (just to part 5). Here's what it says now:
5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, and 120 games over any 2 year span.
I'm proposing that we amend it to:
5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, 125 over 2 seasons, 195 over 3 seasons, and 280 over 4 seasons, starting in Season 43.
I suggest we talk it over as much as we need to and either decide by consensus or a simple majority of voters if it seems like we need to vote.
Anyone's welcome to voice their opinion on the blog - just send to me via sm if you're not an official blog author (or tc me if you want to be). I'll do a post shortly about my reasons for proposing the change.
5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, and 120 games over any 2 year span.
I'm proposing that we amend it to:
5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, 125 over 2 seasons, 195 over 3 seasons, and 280 over 4 seasons, starting in Season 43.
I suggest we talk it over as much as we need to and either decide by consensus or a simple majority of voters if it seems like we need to vote.
Anyone's welcome to voice their opinion on the blog - just send to me via sm if you're not an official blog author (or tc me if you want to be). I'll do a post shortly about my reasons for proposing the change.
New Owner Interview - Jackson Mississippi Monnshiners
Q: Who are you in real life?
A: Mid 40 years young, Georgetown class of 95 (as if my wife, our Dads went there too), Kellogg MBA 98, private equity investor, Dad to two awesome children ages 14 and (almost) 11, grew up in NY and NJ, living in Greenwich, CT. Played little league baseball and purchased the original rotisserie league handbook and became hooked on fantasy baseball and what became widely known as sabermetrics. Have enjoyed playing similatoon games of all kinds for decades, especially baseball, across a multitude of platforms, from Wis to OOTP. Commissioner of a root keeper league.
Q: Best or worst HBD moment?
A: So many of both. Winning the World Series in HBD after numerous years; getting close but never far enough with my first HBD team at the very beginning. Got a stud international prospect starting pitcher the first season and seeing him retire without a ring. One of my favorite thing about HBD is building consistent winners without ever rebuilding or tanking with players that are by no means elite - often with the top overall rating being one player at or around 80.
Q: Best or worst sports fan moment?
A: Again quite a few, will point to winning money on Denver in the super bowl during my first trip to Vegas; watching and coaching my son play little league baseball at the top of the list.
Q: It's you and 3 guests from the past or present around the dinner table. Who are your 3 guests?
Impossible! But will throw out a few: my Grandpa, Ben Franklin, Ayn Rand, Charles Darwin, JFK and Joe Dimagio. Think we need Grace Kelly and Raquel Welch to spice it up too.
Q: What's the most underrated player rating in HBD?
A: Base running.
Q: If you were an HBD player, what would your ratings be?
A: Well, will take my little league ratings v little league competition: LF with 60 range 55 arm, 50 glove, 65 hitting, 50 v left 60 v right 80 power 95 eye 75 speed and 90 base running - who could also throw heat without much control and an elite first pitch (of two) as an emergency pitcher.
Happy to be here - blog, baby, blog!
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Top Impact Rookies For Season 42
Looks like an incredible crop of rookies ready to make their mark next season, with a strong tilt toward position players. Note: I did these by scanning AAA (and AA very quickly) rosters, so I could have missed some of next year's rookies who got promoted late this season - let me know and I'll do an addendum.
#1 - Tony Arias, SP - Jacksonville: Arias was a $24MM - bonused IFA in Season 39 who projects as a 150-inning starter or long reliever...or maybe a closer. No weaknesses and he'll only get better. Don't see him winning Cy Young's due to the low stamina, but he's a good bet for next year's ROY and could definitely win FOY's if he's used as a closer. 3.34 ERA in 99 AA innings this year.
#2 - Gerald Lim, C - Montgomery - #2 pick of the Season 39 draft clobbered High A pitching to the tune of .366/34/142 this season. Excellent power and splits combined with better than average contact/eye...will be the best overall hitter in this group. His splits improved by 10 points each in his 3rd pro season, so he's going to get a pretty good improvement next year. Good pitch-calling ability but inferior arm for a ML C...might start his career as a DH.
#3 - Francisco Guerrero, 1B - San Francisco: $29MM IFA in Season 39, he's poised to take over at 1B with Harvey Tracy's contract expiring. Hit .362/35/139 in AA and on-based a ridiculous .506. His glove and (especially) arm will be a bit of
a liability at 1B, but his bat is too good to keep in the minors again.
#4 - Lorenzo Rosario, CF - Jacksonville: $23.5MM IFA, will likely take over in CF for the ID's next season. He doesn't look like he'll be a star either offensively or defensively, but his power probably means a few Silver Sluggers. .296/47/147 in AAA this year.
#5 - Alexander Pickett, RF - Florida: .331/46/146 in AAA for Season 38's #1. 40-HR power...I think he'll be a little better/more consistent on-base guy than fellow RF Estrada, although I think their careers will end up being very similar. They could both end up being on the AL ROY ballot next year, and you could do worse than betting those 2 against the field to win the ROY.
#6 - Harry Estrada, RF - Kansas City: #11 pick in the Season 38 draft was slowed by injury this year but still posted a fine .331/30/97 AAA season. Solid defender in RF, 40-HR power, .340-.350 on-base skills and some stolen bases to boot. He could be a ROY contender next year and will likely see a few All-Star games.
#7 - Chick Rosenthal, RF - Richmond: #14 pick of Season 38 is not quite the bat of fellow RF's Pickett and Estrada but gets the edge on defense. .316/37/121 this year in AAA - probably closer to a .330 on-base guy than Pickett or Estrada's .340-.350 but could have comparable power. Another bonus: faster and a better baserunner than the other 2.
#8 - Junior Burawa, SS - New York: Ready to step in as the everyday SS, #18 pick in the Season 37 draft looks like he'll be a pretty good batting average/on-base type hitter with the occasional 15-HR season. Not a GG-caliber SS, but solid. Likely to see a few All-Star games and end up with a Silver Slugger or 3 over the fireplace.
#9 - Happy Cepeda, RP - Kansas City: Home-grown reliever was #19 in the Season 37 draft. 9 saves, 2.51 ERA in 89 AAA innings this year, his velocity/flyball skills probably make him KC's closer of the future.
#10 - Edgard Mendoza, RP - Kansas City: $12.5MM IFA in Season 38, he's a near-clone of bullpen-mate Cepeda, but with the advantage of being a surer bet against lefty hitters. Whoever wins the closer job, late innings against KC are going to be tough sledding for a long time to come.
#11 - Thomas Alcantera, SP - Philadelphia: $17MM IFA in Season 38, he pitched in AA this year and went 12-9, 2.87 in 159 IP. His splits are not overly impressive, but I think his 4 very good pitches will more than offset the splits deficit. I don't think it's a 100% certainty that Philly promotes him next year, although he's ML-ready and didn't improve much this season - otherwise I might have moved him a bit higher in the top 10.
#12 - Alex Kim, OF - Cincinnati: As a $37MM IFA, I think you have to say his development has been a little disappointing, although he'll be a good MLer. He hit .331/29/136 in AAA this year. His best position is going to be LF, where he might contend for a GG or 2...putting him at 1B (where he would definitely win GG's) wouldn't be crazy, but he'd be an inferior hitter there. Typical ML season will be something like .266, 32 HR's, .331 OBP.
#13 - Shigetoshi Bong, SP - Richmond: $16MM IFA in Season 39; he makes this list somewhat due to the shortage of ML-ready true SP's. The hope here is that his very good pitches outweigh the shaky splits (especially that 51 vL). He's performed well at 3 MiL levels, topped by this year's 20 wins and 2.58 ERA in 185 AAA innings
#14 - Eddie Fonville, IF - Las Vegas: only 2 years in the minors, but Season 40's #1 overall could get the call - Vegas has a hole at either 2B or 3B (whichever Stock doesn't play). Hit .280/39/111 at 3 minor-league levels this year. Don't expect big production next year if he does get the call, but he's still improving and could eventually become a .275/35-HR infielder. His defense is ready for 2B or 3B in the majors and will likely get to SS level...maybe very good SS level.
#15 - Bartolo Espinosa, 2B - New Orleans: I don't expect greatness but he should have the opportunity with 2B Pressley going into his 3rd arb season. He hit .322 and on-based .404 in AAA - not bad for a relative bargain $8.3MM IFA (SEA 38). Not a GG'er at 2B but should ring up a decent number of good plays.
#16 - B.J. Kirby, DH - Richmond: with Willie Germen signed for 2 more seasons, I'm not sure he sees the majors next year unless 1 of them is traded. But he's definitely a Major League hitter - .371/56/184 in AAA this season. Kirby was the #24 pick in Season 39.
#17 - Peter Stockton, CF - Oakland: #9 pick of Season 37, he's another ML-ready guy who is probably blocked in OAK and may need a trade (of him or an OF in front of him) to see the Show. .325/38/154 in AAA this year.
#1 - Tony Arias, SP - Jacksonville: Arias was a $24MM - bonused IFA in Season 39 who projects as a 150-inning starter or long reliever...or maybe a closer. No weaknesses and he'll only get better. Don't see him winning Cy Young's due to the low stamina, but he's a good bet for next year's ROY and could definitely win FOY's if he's used as a closer. 3.34 ERA in 99 AA innings this year.
#2 - Gerald Lim, C - Montgomery - #2 pick of the Season 39 draft clobbered High A pitching to the tune of .366/34/142 this season. Excellent power and splits combined with better than average contact/eye...will be the best overall hitter in this group. His splits improved by 10 points each in his 3rd pro season, so he's going to get a pretty good improvement next year. Good pitch-calling ability but inferior arm for a ML C...might start his career as a DH.
#3 - Francisco Guerrero, 1B - San Francisco: $29MM IFA in Season 39, he's poised to take over at 1B with Harvey Tracy's contract expiring. Hit .362/35/139 in AA and on-based a ridiculous .506. His glove and (especially) arm will be a bit of
a liability at 1B, but his bat is too good to keep in the minors again.
#4 - Lorenzo Rosario, CF - Jacksonville: $23.5MM IFA, will likely take over in CF for the ID's next season. He doesn't look like he'll be a star either offensively or defensively, but his power probably means a few Silver Sluggers. .296/47/147 in AAA this year.
#5 - Alexander Pickett, RF - Florida: .331/46/146 in AAA for Season 38's #1. 40-HR power...I think he'll be a little better/more consistent on-base guy than fellow RF Estrada, although I think their careers will end up being very similar. They could both end up being on the AL ROY ballot next year, and you could do worse than betting those 2 against the field to win the ROY.
#6 - Harry Estrada, RF - Kansas City: #11 pick in the Season 38 draft was slowed by injury this year but still posted a fine .331/30/97 AAA season. Solid defender in RF, 40-HR power, .340-.350 on-base skills and some stolen bases to boot. He could be a ROY contender next year and will likely see a few All-Star games.
#7 - Chick Rosenthal, RF - Richmond: #14 pick of Season 38 is not quite the bat of fellow RF's Pickett and Estrada but gets the edge on defense. .316/37/121 this year in AAA - probably closer to a .330 on-base guy than Pickett or Estrada's .340-.350 but could have comparable power. Another bonus: faster and a better baserunner than the other 2.
#8 - Junior Burawa, SS - New York: Ready to step in as the everyday SS, #18 pick in the Season 37 draft looks like he'll be a pretty good batting average/on-base type hitter with the occasional 15-HR season. Not a GG-caliber SS, but solid. Likely to see a few All-Star games and end up with a Silver Slugger or 3 over the fireplace.
#9 - Happy Cepeda, RP - Kansas City: Home-grown reliever was #19 in the Season 37 draft. 9 saves, 2.51 ERA in 89 AAA innings this year, his velocity/flyball skills probably make him KC's closer of the future.
#10 - Edgard Mendoza, RP - Kansas City: $12.5MM IFA in Season 38, he's a near-clone of bullpen-mate Cepeda, but with the advantage of being a surer bet against lefty hitters. Whoever wins the closer job, late innings against KC are going to be tough sledding for a long time to come.
#11 - Thomas Alcantera, SP - Philadelphia: $17MM IFA in Season 38, he pitched in AA this year and went 12-9, 2.87 in 159 IP. His splits are not overly impressive, but I think his 4 very good pitches will more than offset the splits deficit. I don't think it's a 100% certainty that Philly promotes him next year, although he's ML-ready and didn't improve much this season - otherwise I might have moved him a bit higher in the top 10.
#12 - Alex Kim, OF - Cincinnati: As a $37MM IFA, I think you have to say his development has been a little disappointing, although he'll be a good MLer. He hit .331/29/136 in AAA this year. His best position is going to be LF, where he might contend for a GG or 2...putting him at 1B (where he would definitely win GG's) wouldn't be crazy, but he'd be an inferior hitter there. Typical ML season will be something like .266, 32 HR's, .331 OBP.
#13 - Shigetoshi Bong, SP - Richmond: $16MM IFA in Season 39; he makes this list somewhat due to the shortage of ML-ready true SP's. The hope here is that his very good pitches outweigh the shaky splits (especially that 51 vL). He's performed well at 3 MiL levels, topped by this year's 20 wins and 2.58 ERA in 185 AAA innings
#14 - Eddie Fonville, IF - Las Vegas: only 2 years in the minors, but Season 40's #1 overall could get the call - Vegas has a hole at either 2B or 3B (whichever Stock doesn't play). Hit .280/39/111 at 3 minor-league levels this year. Don't expect big production next year if he does get the call, but he's still improving and could eventually become a .275/35-HR infielder. His defense is ready for 2B or 3B in the majors and will likely get to SS level...maybe very good SS level.
#15 - Bartolo Espinosa, 2B - New Orleans: I don't expect greatness but he should have the opportunity with 2B Pressley going into his 3rd arb season. He hit .322 and on-based .404 in AAA - not bad for a relative bargain $8.3MM IFA (SEA 38). Not a GG'er at 2B but should ring up a decent number of good plays.
#16 - B.J. Kirby, DH - Richmond: with Willie Germen signed for 2 more seasons, I'm not sure he sees the majors next year unless 1 of them is traded. But he's definitely a Major League hitter - .371/56/184 in AAA this season. Kirby was the #24 pick in Season 39.
#17 - Peter Stockton, CF - Oakland: #9 pick of Season 37, he's another ML-ready guy who is probably blocked in OAK and may need a trade (of him or an OF in front of him) to see the Show. .325/38/154 in AAA this year.
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