In career hitting stats, almost all the updates concern the brilliant career of Jin-Chi Itou, but a couple of other modern players are worthy of mentions as well.
Itou of course, is our career leader in numerous stats: HR's with 846, Slugging % at .655 (and he's not likely to give up the lead even in his declining years).
He also ended last season with exactly 3000 hits (#5) and held onto #5 all-time in batting average (.325).
The interesting chases as he enters his age-36 season are in runs scored, RBI and runs created. He's #2 to Jimmie Segui in all 3: 1887 to 1949 for Segui in runs, 2276 to 2406 for Segui in RBI, and 2365 to 2406 to Segui in runs created. Looks to me like he'll pass Segui in RC and runs this year and RBI next year.
Of much less significance but still notable in this pitching-dominant era:
Nick Green moved into a tie for 4th in OBP at .421, and sits at #4 in RC/27, and
Trace Clark is #5 in RC/27
Next up: career pitching
Monday, February 19, 2018
Saturday, November 18, 2017
Season 36 Recap - Pitching Record Book
To be in a "pitching era," we didn't see a lot of impact on pitching records last season. While scoring was up slightly from Season 35, Seasons 34-36 remain the lowest-scoring 3-season span in Hobbs history.
In such a low-scoring environment, I would've expected a bunch of new entries into the Top 5's in the qualitative categories. But the only one was Vic Merced's .184 BA Against, good for a tie for 3rd all-time.
We did have a couple of noteworthy counting-stat performances.
With a pretty decent age 40 (and final) season, Louis Wilson took over the career #1 spot in both innings pitched (4255) and strikeouts (3412). Hall of Fame credentials?
And, although I'm quick to add that wins don't mean much the way Sam Stock is used (except maybe that he plays on a good team), he did up the single-season wins mark to 42. A better indicator of his effectiveness is the fairly sizable leads he has as the career leader in all the qualitative stats. And he did pick up Cy Young #5 (in 7 seasons played), so he's actually on pace to match Itou's "major award" mark and maybe even break it given the longer careers of pitchers. Unlikely, though, given that I'm not likely to stick around through the end of Stock's career, and it's not likely other owners would use Stock the way I have.
In such a low-scoring environment, I would've expected a bunch of new entries into the Top 5's in the qualitative categories. But the only one was Vic Merced's .184 BA Against, good for a tie for 3rd all-time.
We did have a couple of noteworthy counting-stat performances.
With a pretty decent age 40 (and final) season, Louis Wilson took over the career #1 spot in both innings pitched (4255) and strikeouts (3412). Hall of Fame credentials?
And, although I'm quick to add that wins don't mean much the way Sam Stock is used (except maybe that he plays on a good team), he did up the single-season wins mark to 42. A better indicator of his effectiveness is the fairly sizable leads he has as the career leader in all the qualitative stats. And he did pick up Cy Young #5 (in 7 seasons played), so he's actually on pace to match Itou's "major award" mark and maybe even break it given the longer careers of pitchers. Unlikely, though, given that I'm not likely to stick around through the end of Stock's career, and it's not likely other owners would use Stock the way I have.
Season 36 Recap Part 2 - Itou's Hitting Records Assault
Jin-Chi Itou's remarkable age-34 season (.330/50/122) continued his crazy-re-writing of the record books and solidified his still-building legacy as the best hitter in Hobbs history (and possibly the best hitter any of us has ever seen in HBD). Among the milestones set or added to last season:
*** Won his 11th MVP (in 16 seasons played). This one has to be totally unassailable. You have to be incredibly good AND incredibly lucky to win more than 3 MVP's...I think Itou has won it every year he should have won it plus a couple that were at least challengeable (Hasegawa's Season 32, 35 and 36 come to mind).
Nor will any pitchers approach 11 Cy Youngs. Jair Gonzalez was the most dominant pitcher imaginable over his career, and he only got to 8 CY's.
And I don't think Sam Stock will maintain his current pace of CY's (5 in 7 seasons played).
*** Finished last season with 816 career home runs, passing up Jimmie Segui (808) on the all-time list. Segui slammed his 800+ over 21 seasons (more hitter-friendly seasons at that), while Itou has done it in 16 and is still cranking. Special credit to Segui: he played his entire career in the immensely hitter-difficult San Diego.
*** At an age when most (even good hitters) are seeing their career qualitative stats drop, Itou actually increased his career-leading numbers in ISO, OPS and Slugging %.
At 1811 runs scored, he's at 5th all-time, and 1st is just a matter of a couple more full seasons (Segui leads at 1949). The RBI record is a little tougher - Segui has a 230-RBI lead on Itou starting this year (2406 to 2176), but is there any doubt Itou has a couple more 100-RBI seasons left, plus 2-3 more of 50-80?
*** Won his 11th MVP (in 16 seasons played). This one has to be totally unassailable. You have to be incredibly good AND incredibly lucky to win more than 3 MVP's...I think Itou has won it every year he should have won it plus a couple that were at least challengeable (Hasegawa's Season 32, 35 and 36 come to mind).
Nor will any pitchers approach 11 Cy Youngs. Jair Gonzalez was the most dominant pitcher imaginable over his career, and he only got to 8 CY's.
And I don't think Sam Stock will maintain his current pace of CY's (5 in 7 seasons played).
*** Finished last season with 816 career home runs, passing up Jimmie Segui (808) on the all-time list. Segui slammed his 800+ over 21 seasons (more hitter-friendly seasons at that), while Itou has done it in 16 and is still cranking. Special credit to Segui: he played his entire career in the immensely hitter-difficult San Diego.
*** At an age when most (even good hitters) are seeing their career qualitative stats drop, Itou actually increased his career-leading numbers in ISO, OPS and Slugging %.
At 1811 runs scored, he's at 5th all-time, and 1st is just a matter of a couple more full seasons (Segui leads at 1949). The RBI record is a little tougher - Segui has a 230-RBI lead on Itou starting this year (2406 to 2176), but is there any doubt Itou has a couple more 100-RBI seasons left, plus 2-3 more of 50-80?
Season 36 Recap, Part 1 - Playoffs and Breakthrough teams
Recent Hobbs playoff history has been dominated by 4 "mini-dynasties" that won back-to-back championships: the NL Scranton Express (today's New York Lincoln Giants) in Seasons 27-28, Season 29 and 30's Las Vegas Desperados (today's DesperaDOS), the Huntington Fire Blitz (now the D.C. Senators) of Season 32-33, and the New Orleans/Mexico City AL franchise of Seasons 34-35.
Only the Diablos Rojos made it back to the Series for a try at the hat trick, but their dreams were convincingly dashed in 6 by the resurgent young New Orleans Steam squad.
Hats off to boconner22 on his first World Series win! What's really remarkable about the building of the Steam is it only took 1 year of rebuilding (after boconner's 1st 3 500-ish seasons) to produce a contender.
Other teams moved into the "up-and-coming" ranks with big improvements in Season 36:
Montreal improved by 31 wins to 95
Pittsburgh improved by 23 wins to 95
Trenton improved by 21 wins to 94
Honolulu improved by 19 wins to 98
Wichita improved by 12 wins to 82
Looks like a lot of new teams gunning for playoff spots this year!
Only the Diablos Rojos made it back to the Series for a try at the hat trick, but their dreams were convincingly dashed in 6 by the resurgent young New Orleans Steam squad.
Hats off to boconner22 on his first World Series win! What's really remarkable about the building of the Steam is it only took 1 year of rebuilding (after boconner's 1st 3 500-ish seasons) to produce a contender.
Other teams moved into the "up-and-coming" ranks with big improvements in Season 36:
Montreal improved by 31 wins to 95
Pittsburgh improved by 23 wins to 95
Trenton improved by 21 wins to 94
Honolulu improved by 19 wins to 98
Wichita improved by 12 wins to 82
Looks like a lot of new teams gunning for playoff spots this year!
Thursday, October 19, 2017
Who's The Best Pitcher Of All-TIme In Hobbs? (vote)
My comment in the World Chat about Jin-Chi Itou (obviously the best hitter in Hobbs history) got me wondering about who the best pitcher has been.
I've always considered Hobbs a "hitter's world"...not that there haven't been great pitchers. But it has always felt to me like Hobbs didn't have the lights-out SP's that other worlds I've played in had.
So I tried to come up with a very quick-and-dirty way to nominate a few candidates. Here's what I did: I looked at On-Base % Allowed and Slugging % Allowed for qualitative stuff, and Quality Starts and Saves for counting stats. I picked Quality Starts over wins, figuring it's a little better at pointing out SP's who are both very good and long-careered. I don't think much of saves as an indicator of anything, but didn't have a better way of making sure some top short relievers would hit my candidates list.
For those 4 stats, I looked at the career leaders lists and assigned 5 points to the top guy, 4 for second, etc. Then I added the points for each pitcher and came up with the following candidates (in order of point totals):
Sam Stock
The Case For: dominant leader of the qualitative categories; 4 Cy Youngs and counting at age 27
The Case Against: Has still only pitcher 1200+ innings
Phil Chang
The Case For: #2 in saves lifetime with better qualitatives than saves leader Candelaria (only Chang, Stock and Carey are in the top 5 in both OPS Against and Slugging Against)
The Case Against: only 1255 career innings
Ernest Carey
The Case For: #3 All-Time in both OPS Against and Slugging Against
The Case Against: the ultimate anonymous middle reliever
Jair Gonzalez
The Case For: All-Time Quality Starts leader, so he's got the longevity cred covered (his 4152 IP is #2 All-Time)
The Case Against: Doesn't have quite the qualitative numbers as the better RP's, but SP's rarely do. You can also argue that part of his career covered a more hitter-friendly era (could apply to Chang, Candelaria, Wilson and Fernandez as well). And at .618 OPS-Against, it's still damn good.
Pedro Candelaria
The Case For: All-Time Saves leader with 632, as well as a sterling Career OPS-Against of .610.
The Case Against: Barely topped 1000 career IP
Louis Wilson
The Case For: #2 in Quality Starts
The Case Against: A career OPS-Against (.668) that's very good but lackluster in this list
Orlando Fernandez
I've always considered Hobbs a "hitter's world"...not that there haven't been great pitchers. But it has always felt to me like Hobbs didn't have the lights-out SP's that other worlds I've played in had.
So I tried to come up with a very quick-and-dirty way to nominate a few candidates. Here's what I did: I looked at On-Base % Allowed and Slugging % Allowed for qualitative stuff, and Quality Starts and Saves for counting stats. I picked Quality Starts over wins, figuring it's a little better at pointing out SP's who are both very good and long-careered. I don't think much of saves as an indicator of anything, but didn't have a better way of making sure some top short relievers would hit my candidates list.
For those 4 stats, I looked at the career leaders lists and assigned 5 points to the top guy, 4 for second, etc. Then I added the points for each pitcher and came up with the following candidates (in order of point totals):
Sam Stock
The Case For: dominant leader of the qualitative categories; 4 Cy Youngs and counting at age 27
The Case Against: Has still only pitcher 1200+ innings
Phil Chang
The Case For: #2 in saves lifetime with better qualitatives than saves leader Candelaria (only Chang, Stock and Carey are in the top 5 in both OPS Against and Slugging Against)
The Case Against: only 1255 career innings
Ernest Carey
The Case For: #3 All-Time in both OPS Against and Slugging Against
The Case Against: the ultimate anonymous middle reliever
Jair Gonzalez
The Case For: All-Time Quality Starts leader, so he's got the longevity cred covered (his 4152 IP is #2 All-Time)
The Case Against: Doesn't have quite the qualitative numbers as the better RP's, but SP's rarely do. You can also argue that part of his career covered a more hitter-friendly era (could apply to Chang, Candelaria, Wilson and Fernandez as well). And at .618 OPS-Against, it's still damn good.
Pedro Candelaria
The Case For: All-Time Saves leader with 632, as well as a sterling Career OPS-Against of .610.
The Case Against: Barely topped 1000 career IP
Louis Wilson
The Case For: #2 in Quality Starts
The Case Against: A career OPS-Against (.668) that's very good but lackluster in this list
Orlando Fernandez
The Case For: Combined incredible qualitatives (#2 in Slugging % Against with huge IP totals for a RP: 2641 - and he probably only had 1 season where he was pushed to max innings pitched). His Season 22 could be the greatest single season for a pitcher in Hobbs history: 34-3 in 189.2 IP, with a crazy OPS-Against of .485 (I think the only sub-.500 season for a P with over 162 IP).
The Case Against: Hard to find one. Excelled as a closer, as an anonymous MR who didn't roll up counting stats, and that 1 season in the Sam Stock "early reliever" role.
Aurelio Duran
The Case For: Makes this list solely due to being #2 on the Career OBP-Against list. Not that he's a 1-trick pony, he just looks like it against this competition.
The Case Against: Joins Carey in the anon MR netherworld
I'm going to put all 8 on the ballot, but it looks to me like a choice between Fernandez, Gonzalez and Stock. I'm voting for Fernandez - let's compare him to Stock again in another 12 seasons or so.
The Case Against: Hard to find one. Excelled as a closer, as an anonymous MR who didn't roll up counting stats, and that 1 season in the Sam Stock "early reliever" role.
Aurelio Duran
The Case For: Makes this list solely due to being #2 on the Career OBP-Against list. Not that he's a 1-trick pony, he just looks like it against this competition.
The Case Against: Joins Carey in the anon MR netherworld
I'm going to put all 8 on the ballot, but it looks to me like a choice between Fernandez, Gonzalez and Stock. I'm voting for Fernandez - let's compare him to Stock again in another 12 seasons or so.
Sunday, April 2, 2017
MIDSEASON REVIEW
Not too shabby a start for fearless prognosticators
The fearless prognosticators of Roy Hobbs have nailed 7 of the 8 first-place teams at the midseason point, and 20 of the 32 spots overall for a .625 percentage.The prognosticators for the NL North, AL East and AL South divisions are perfect in their predictions at the midway mark.
In the AL East, as predicted, Indianapolis and Washington
are at the top of the standings and Durham and Chicago are neck and neck at the
midway point in a heated battle to avoid the doormat.
In the AL South, New Orleans is running away from the rest
of the pack, holding a commanding 14-game advantage over second place
Nashville. The battle in that division will be for second place as the Legends
hold a slim 2-game edge over Louisville.
The division that has given forecasters the most
headaches is the NL South, where predictions have missed on all four of the
spots. Charlotte was picked to lead the division, but Austin has established a
2-game lead at the midpoint. And Texas looks poised to spoil the third-place
predicted finish for San Juan with the Choades settling into a comfortable 7-game
lead over the last-place Padres.
All of the other misses have involved the second- and
third-place teams in the AL North, AL West, NL East and NL West.
In the AL North, Kansas City’s 3-year hold on second place
is in jeopardy at the half-way mark as the lucky Shamrocks of Montreal have lifted
the team to a surprising 4-game edge over the Jayhawks.
In the AL West, Vancouver has spent much of the first half
of the season hitting less than the team’s average weight and the dismal .244
offensive production has left the Ravens two games back of Cheyenne, which has
nicbase2 saying, “I’m your huckleberry!”
In the NL East, Columbus is wrecking the hopes of a second-place
finish for Trenton as the Ohioans have put seven games between themselves and
the Thrashers. Equally important, the Columbus squad sits just two games behind
predicted frontrunner Syracuse, which could be predictive of a second-half
scramble for the Lake Monsters to defend their division title.
All in all, our prognosticators have inched a bit closer to
the tree trunk as they sit precariously out on their limbs. The only one
hearing the faint sound of cracking wood is the NL South forecaster.Saturday, April 1, 2017
Mid-Season Look At the Awards Races
Believe it or not, we're at the halfway point already. Who are this season's first-half award-winners? You can read over my choices below, and vote in the "First-Half Award Winners" poll on the right.
NL MVP - the candidates:
Yean Carlos Gonzalez (AUS) is a triple crown-winner at Game 80, with a stunning .353/32/77. He also leads by a wide margin in runs created and RC/27.
Rick Black (SYR) is right behind Gonzalez in average and RBI (.350/23/74). With 121 hits through Game 80, he has a shot at the all-time single-season hits record (235, set by HOF'er Sidney Fabregas back in Season 8).
John Small (AUS) is having another excellent all-round season at .333/19/42, with a .423 OBP (2nd to Gonzalez).
Juan Aramboles (IA) just keeps rolling. In the first half of his age-34 year, all he's done is hit .346/24/62, and is 2nd in the NL in OPS.
Bob Tucker (TEX) edges out Carlos Valdivia, Saul Pinzon, Omir Stowers, and Armando Encarnacion for the 5th spot on the ballot. His .329/21/58 first half is a nice bounce-back from last season.
And the first half NL MVP is: Gonzalez by a mile
NL Cy Young - the candidates:
Willie Tepera (AUS) leads the NL in BA allowed, OPS allowed, WHIP and ERA, and is 2nd in Slugging% allowed; and has 8 wins in his 16 starts. Dominant breakout season.
Rabbit Fried (BUF) leads the league with 12 wins and is 2nd in ERA at 2.23. He's in the top 2-7 in the other qualitative stats - very impressive for a pitcher who leads the league in innings pitched.
Johnny Gardner (CHA) is 3rd in ERA and ranks very well in the other qualitatives. In fact, he's first in Slugging % allowed at .300.
Kirk Marks (CH1) has only 1 loss to 9 wins, and has a 2.75 ERA while pitching the 2nd-most innings of all NLers.
Diory Diaz (SAL) secures the 5th spot with his excellent qualitatives record - 4th in OBP-A, 3rd in Slugging %-A, 3rd in WHIP, 4th in ERA.
And the first half NL CY is: Tepera narrowly over Fried
AL MVP - the candidates
Jin-Chi Itou (LV) still leads the AL in HR's (23) and is 2nd in OPS (.983) in a down year. Pretty far down the list in RC (7th) but 4th in RC/27.
Kelvim Hasegawa (WAS) leads the AL in RBI (68) and stolen bases (30, in 30 attempts), while running 2nd in runs created. Big defensive contribution with a .973 fielding % and 4 + plays, even though he appears to not have a 3B arm.
David Simmons (NAS) might not have the durability to make the final ballot, but his league-leading .340 BA, along with 19 HR's and 54 RBI, gets him a spot on our first-half ballot. #2 in RC/27.
Dante Kawasaki (NO) leads the AL in hits and runs created, and is 4th in OPS and 3rd in RC/27. Biggest defensive contributor on the ballot, with a .989 fielding % and 2 + plays at 2B.
Trenidad Durazo (IND) edges out a host of other contenders - Nick Green, Jenry Zumaya, Jamie Osborne, Darren Walton, Dayan Franco - who have comparable offensive numbers but not the defensive chops. His .290/19/59 is good for 7th in OPS (.918), 5th in RC and 8th in RC/27. And with 10 + plays he's in the running for 3B Gold Glove.
And the first half AL MVP is: I think I could be a homer and go with Kawasaki, but I'll vote for Hasegawa. Looking like a tight, interesting race, though.
AL CY - the candidates
Sam Stock (NO) leads the AL in OBP-A (.252) and WHIP (0.97) despite having a relatively poor year. Only 2 losses in 17 decisions despite a career-high (so far) .342 Slugging%-A.
George Camili (IND) leads in innings pitched (142) and has very good qualitatives (1st in BA-A, 2nd in OBP-A, 3rd in Slugging % - A, 2nd in WHIP...you'd think his ERA would be better than 3.04).
Bralin Kohn (PHI) sports an impressive 1.78 ERA (1st) and also leads the league in Slugging % -A (.290). A touch of wildness (38 walks in 91 innings) hurts a bit, and he may not get enough wins to make the end-of-year ballot, but he's been dominant so far.
Joe Johnson (IND) has 7 wins, a 2.44 ERA (3rd) and is top-5 in the other quality stats. Could end up being 1 of 3 (or even 4) Indy arms on the final Cy Young ticket.
Julio Cano (IND) has 7 wins and a 2.74 ERA as a 22-yo. Solid in the other quality stats. This spot could have just a easily gone to Indy's 4th standout, Wily Osoria.
And the first half AL Cy Young is: Camili. Neither Stock nor Kohn is clearly out-pitching him, and he's rolling up a mountain of innings pitched.
NL MVP - the candidates:
Yean Carlos Gonzalez (AUS) is a triple crown-winner at Game 80, with a stunning .353/32/77. He also leads by a wide margin in runs created and RC/27.
Rick Black (SYR) is right behind Gonzalez in average and RBI (.350/23/74). With 121 hits through Game 80, he has a shot at the all-time single-season hits record (235, set by HOF'er Sidney Fabregas back in Season 8).
John Small (AUS) is having another excellent all-round season at .333/19/42, with a .423 OBP (2nd to Gonzalez).
Juan Aramboles (IA) just keeps rolling. In the first half of his age-34 year, all he's done is hit .346/24/62, and is 2nd in the NL in OPS.
Bob Tucker (TEX) edges out Carlos Valdivia, Saul Pinzon, Omir Stowers, and Armando Encarnacion for the 5th spot on the ballot. His .329/21/58 first half is a nice bounce-back from last season.
And the first half NL MVP is: Gonzalez by a mile
NL Cy Young - the candidates:
Willie Tepera (AUS) leads the NL in BA allowed, OPS allowed, WHIP and ERA, and is 2nd in Slugging% allowed; and has 8 wins in his 16 starts. Dominant breakout season.
Rabbit Fried (BUF) leads the league with 12 wins and is 2nd in ERA at 2.23. He's in the top 2-7 in the other qualitative stats - very impressive for a pitcher who leads the league in innings pitched.
Johnny Gardner (CHA) is 3rd in ERA and ranks very well in the other qualitatives. In fact, he's first in Slugging % allowed at .300.
Kirk Marks (CH1) has only 1 loss to 9 wins, and has a 2.75 ERA while pitching the 2nd-most innings of all NLers.
Diory Diaz (SAL) secures the 5th spot with his excellent qualitatives record - 4th in OBP-A, 3rd in Slugging %-A, 3rd in WHIP, 4th in ERA.
And the first half NL CY is: Tepera narrowly over Fried
AL MVP - the candidates
Jin-Chi Itou (LV) still leads the AL in HR's (23) and is 2nd in OPS (.983) in a down year. Pretty far down the list in RC (7th) but 4th in RC/27.
Kelvim Hasegawa (WAS) leads the AL in RBI (68) and stolen bases (30, in 30 attempts), while running 2nd in runs created. Big defensive contribution with a .973 fielding % and 4 + plays, even though he appears to not have a 3B arm.
David Simmons (NAS) might not have the durability to make the final ballot, but his league-leading .340 BA, along with 19 HR's and 54 RBI, gets him a spot on our first-half ballot. #2 in RC/27.
Dante Kawasaki (NO) leads the AL in hits and runs created, and is 4th in OPS and 3rd in RC/27. Biggest defensive contributor on the ballot, with a .989 fielding % and 2 + plays at 2B.
Trenidad Durazo (IND) edges out a host of other contenders - Nick Green, Jenry Zumaya, Jamie Osborne, Darren Walton, Dayan Franco - who have comparable offensive numbers but not the defensive chops. His .290/19/59 is good for 7th in OPS (.918), 5th in RC and 8th in RC/27. And with 10 + plays he's in the running for 3B Gold Glove.
And the first half AL MVP is: I think I could be a homer and go with Kawasaki, but I'll vote for Hasegawa. Looking like a tight, interesting race, though.
AL CY - the candidates
Sam Stock (NO) leads the AL in OBP-A (.252) and WHIP (0.97) despite having a relatively poor year. Only 2 losses in 17 decisions despite a career-high (so far) .342 Slugging%-A.
George Camili (IND) leads in innings pitched (142) and has very good qualitatives (1st in BA-A, 2nd in OBP-A, 3rd in Slugging % - A, 2nd in WHIP...you'd think his ERA would be better than 3.04).
Bralin Kohn (PHI) sports an impressive 1.78 ERA (1st) and also leads the league in Slugging % -A (.290). A touch of wildness (38 walks in 91 innings) hurts a bit, and he may not get enough wins to make the end-of-year ballot, but he's been dominant so far.
Joe Johnson (IND) has 7 wins, a 2.44 ERA (3rd) and is top-5 in the other quality stats. Could end up being 1 of 3 (or even 4) Indy arms on the final Cy Young ticket.
Julio Cano (IND) has 7 wins and a 2.74 ERA as a 22-yo. Solid in the other quality stats. This spot could have just a easily gone to Indy's 4th standout, Wily Osoria.
And the first half AL Cy Young is: Camili. Neither Stock nor Kohn is clearly out-pitching him, and he's rolling up a mountain of innings pitched.
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