FIrst-Round Draft Review

As with the previews, I decided to change up the format of the draft review this year.  The categories are of course highly subjective...best, worst, inspiring...I don't really know what any of them mean but hopefully we found a good descriptor for your draft pick.  Overall, this seems like another poor draft, albeit not as bad as Season 42's total washout.  That's 3 poor drafts in a row.

The inspired - better pick than they should have expected at their draft position:

Helena at #7:  Bump Graveman, 1B/DH (Ancilla College) - Another guy my scouts wanted to move up...not this high due to the obvious vR problem, but I think he'll be OK.  His CON and EYE are both going to be pretty high, so there's a little less concern with the low vR.  And power is always welcome, especially in a draft woefully short of it.  There were arguably a couple of better choices available (Appel, who went 2 picks later, and I really like the RF Levis taken by PIT at 14), but they're close and there were many other sucker picks available here.

Boston at #13:  Melvin Lloyd, 2B/CF - I had him all the way up to #5, which might be a commentary about the lack of talent in this draft.  Still, at 13 he looks like a better pick than any since Appel at 9.  I expect his defense to be 2B/CF caliber - probably not GG caliber.  His vR is the only big concern among the hitting ratings, and he'll eventually be a fair-to-middling base stealer.  Don't look for any All-Star Games in his future, but should be a solid contributor.

Scottsdale at #24 - Nick Jones, SP - I didn't scout him, so my optimism is based solely on that starting vR of 68.  He's only going to have 1 ML pitch, but that might be enough for him to be an end-of-rotation guy.

Cleveland at #25  Yimi Oliva, C - Why do catchers who will obviously be ML hitters consistently get drafted after IF's and P's who won't make ML rosters?  Oliva is exhibit A this year.  He'll be good enough defensively to catch every day...probably best as a vL platoon but I think his vR will reach an adequate 60.

San Juan at #33 Leyson Rodriguez, 1B/OF - probably a 4A, but if you stare long enough you might see a ML hitter.  Either way, a better pick than many before him.

Some doubts...probably had a better pick available:

Cleveland at #4: Henry Holm, SP (I didn't scout him) - Just based on the currents I'm seeing a prospect who's starting too low to be an impact pitcher.  There always seem to be 2 or 3 guys (but rarely more) in every draft who develop remarkably, but I don't think Holm will be one.  He's always going to be vulnerable to righties, and it doesn't appear his pitches will be good enough to bail out that flaw.  This draft really starts here at #4.

Durham at #5: Rusty Wood, 2B (I didn't scout him) - maybe close to a reasonable pick here depending on good glove development (starting at 50, can he get to 70?) and CON, PWR and EYE topping 70 (possible, not likely).  Surely there were better choices, here though.  If I squint very hard I can see a guy that can make an ML roster as long as he's cheap.

Florida at #12:  Xander Maduro, CF - I'm guessing Florida didn't put too much into their scouting, as even my HS scouts saw this one coming - we moved Maduro down to 39 (they saw a non power-hitting, non baserunning, non on-basing non-CF).  One better choice?  The guy who went right behind him at 13, Melvin Lloyd.


At least they didn't eff it up - more or less made the right choice:

Oklahoma City at #1: Ryan Norman, IF (U of Michigan) - well, he looked like the clear #1 to my well-funded college scouts, although I'm not completely sure he'll end up as the best player in this class.  While the currents of his contact and splits are disappointing for a 22-yo, he still projects as a multi-All Star infielder with 35-40 HR power (especially if the team ever moves from OKC).  Norman and last year's big IFA, Peaches Eierman, give OKC 2 monster building blocks to finally get the turnaround started.

New Orleans at #2:  Jed Sweeney, SP (Michigan City HS) - This one is a befuddler.  Based on the projections of my decently-paid HS scouts, this guy looked like the obvious #2 or #3.  When the currents revealed his starting ratings (especially vR and pitches 2-4), he looks like he should've been back in the pack some.  I'm sticking with my original call that he belonged at 2 or 3, but I'm losing faith in the accuracy of any draft scouting.  

Chicago at #3:  Harry Mota, CF (Owens Community College) - rounds out the obvious top 3.  Projects to a solid, 10-year centerfielder...maybe an occasional All-Star Game.  He'll have exceptional range and I think his glove will improve dramatically given PT and good coaching.  As a hitter, his CON and vR ratings  are starting the highest and will probably improve the most.  I'd like to see a better eye, but his contact skills will make up for it some.  Typical season during peak years:  .287/23 HRs, something like a .335 OBP.  Maybe more HR's if the team stays in Wrigley.

Toronto at #10:  Brian Thomas, 3B  - I moved him down to 15 because I didn't think his glove would reach 3B caliber, and I thought he'd be a disappointing OF.  On 2nd thought, he'll probably be a good enough hitter to be kind of a Dwight Evan RF without that much power.  TOR could've easily done much worse at #10, and I'm not sure there was a clearly better pick.

Los Angeles at #15:  Edwin Goodwin, SP - My scouts got in a big fight about this guy because they projected just-barely-ML splits but good pitches (especially the first 2); the nay's eventually won out and we moved him down to 26, but given the rapidly-plummeting talent level at this point he's probably a decent pick here.  His splits are not so low that they can't reach mid-60's, and the first 2 pitches are already pretty good - he could have a ML career.

New York at #19: Weldon Bates, LF - With heroic development, he could become a speedy, defensive backup 1B/LF with no power.  Everyone  carries one of those on the roster.

San Juan at #20: Jody Mays, SS - His glove won't take him to a career as a SS, and his bat won't let him play anywhere else.  AAA talent.

Richmond at #21:  Wolf Tolleson, OF - Another potential fast, no-power, defensive backup 1B/LF.  Probably has a better ML chance than #17 Bates because if you squint hard, you can see him being a vL platoon hitter.

Pawtuckett at #26 - Milton Sasser, SP - My scouts said he projected to be right on the cusp of ML talent, IF he reached his projections.  Sadly (and commonly), that will not be the case.  AAA ceiling.  

Cleveland at #29:  Anthony Berry, 2B/CF - almost any player who can get to minimum 2B/CF defensive standards (range/glove of 80/70 or so)has a ML shot IF they can bring one other trick to the party, contact, eye, speed, something.  Scouting on Berry said the one thing was hitting, despite a poor eye.  His currents don't inspire optimism, but we'll see.

Jacksonville at #32: Hayes Rando, SS - outside shot at becoming a good enough defender to see ML time.  Good pick if your expectations are moderate.

Most likely to exceed expectations

Scottsdale at #9: James Appel, SP (Salt Lake Community College) - I had Appel at #7, right between Ortiz at 4 and Raines at 9.  So with expected fuzziness, I figured they were all about the same.  With his control and splits starting quite a bit higher than the other 2, Appel looks like the winner of the top-10 SP sweepstakes.  He is a couple of years older than the other 2, so maybe he won't develop as well, but his CON and splits are at least in sight of ML levels.  It'll be an interesting case study to watch these 3..I think Appel will be the winner.

Pittsburgh at #14:  Joey Levis, RF - overall probably the best pick so far.  His projections suggested his CON, PWR and vR were the make-or-break ratings, and they're all starting quite high for a 19-yo.  vL and Eye aren't going to be anything special, but he'll be a pretty good RF.  I think he'll be a good enough bat to make a couple of All-Star appearances.  Odd ratings note:  my scouts projected his PAT, TEM, and MU all at 100.

Montreal at #16: Patrick Axelrod, 3B - I was hopeful on him at #12, based on that promising vR, a decent batting eye, and potentially 3B-level defensive credentials.  I don't think he'll be a 3B, but the bat's going to be there, especially against RHP.  At this point in this draft, pretty darn good.

Las Vegas at #22, George Griffin, SP - one of the few finds after #10 this year.  I had him at #8 based on promising pitches and not-disastrous split projections.  While his vL is starting woefully low, his vR isn't, and those first 2 pitches still promise t be special. 

Toronto at #30, Stuart Maxwell, RP - I'm not wildly optimistic he'll be a nice surprise, but I think he'll make a ML bullpen for a few seasons.  Not bad for #30.

Most likely to disappoint

Salt Lake City at #6:  Albert Ortiz, SP (Soper HS) - as in, already the biggest disappointment of the Top 10.  My reasonably  well-paid ($14MM) HS scouts insisted I move him all the way up to #4 based on their estimates of stratospheric CON and vR ratings.  And he starts at 56 and 49?  I'm starting to think the way to get talent is just go all-FA all the time.  With decent development he's still a major leaguer but a far cry from the potential star my scouts envisioned.

Houston at #8:  Doug Raines, SP - it's official, $14MM in scouting is the new $0...my projections for this guy bear no resemblance whatsoever to the reality.  I had him at #9 only because his pitch projections were terrible; now, his pitches look way better than my projections while his control and splits are 40 points under my projections.  Much like Ortiz, he could grow into a ML pitcher, but he's disappointing for a #8 pick.

Toledo at #11:  Morris Watson, SP - My projections on this guy were truly exciting; good enough Control, splits and even pitches to move him to #6.  As seems to be the theme for me and HS draftees in this class, his control and splits are starting 30-40 points below my scouts' projections.  On the positive side, his P1 and P2 are already decent, so let's hope he sees some  heroic development on the splits.  Likely scenario is a distinguished AAA career.

A little intrigue for other reasons

Columbus at #17:  Steve Alfaro, SP - intriguing because this is the 1st-rounder whose current ratings look the least like what my projections were.  Odd considering he's a college guy, and my college scouting budget is, well...the most it can be.  I am now 99% sure I'm going to punt the draft in the future. 

Colorado at #18:  Jim Myers, SP - intriguing because this was a great gamble at 18.  My scouts said there was a whiff of a chance he could be one of those mid-40's control guys with an explosive arm - high enough splits and pitches to offset the control trouble.  The gamble didn't work out, but nothing lost at this point.


Philadelphia at #23, Brandon Francouer, 2B - in this category mostly because he didn't fit anywhere else, but also because he does have chance to make the Bigs.  His defense could reach decent 2B status, and he already has some power...maybe his contact will eventually offset his low splits.

San Francisco at #31, Teodoro Hollands, OF - intriguing because my projections were so far off on him that I think I'm now looking at a totally different player.  The big power project guys are more fun than other picks here, because 15 seasons down the road you might get to make a WC post that says your guy has 700 MiL homers.