As with the previews, I decided to change up the format of the draft review this year. The categories are of course highly subjective...best, worst, inspiring...I don't really know what any of them mean but hopefully we found a good descriptor for your draft pick. Overall, this seems like another poor draft, albeit not as bad as Season 42's total washout. That's 3 poor drafts in a row.
The inspired - better pick than they should have expected at their draft position:
Helena at #7: Bump Graveman, 1B/DH (Ancilla College) - Another guy my scouts wanted to move up...not this high due to the obvious vR problem, but I think he'll be OK. His CON and EYE are both going to be pretty high, so there's a little less concern with the low vR. And power is always welcome, especially in a draft woefully short of it. There were arguably a couple of better choices available (Appel, who went 2 picks later, and I really like the RF Levis taken by PIT at 14), but they're close and there were many other sucker picks available here.
Boston at #13: Melvin Lloyd, 2B/CF - I had him all the way up to #5, which might be a commentary about the lack of talent in this draft. Still, at 13 he looks like a better pick than any since Appel at 9. I expect his defense to be 2B/CF caliber - probably not GG caliber. His vR is the only big concern among the hitting ratings, and he'll eventually be a fair-to-middling base stealer. Don't look for any All-Star Games in his future, but should be a solid contributor.
Scottsdale at #24 - Nick Jones, SP - I didn't scout him, so my optimism is based solely on that starting vR of 68. He's only going to have 1 ML pitch, but that might be enough for him to be an end-of-rotation guy.
Cleveland at #25 Yimi Oliva, C - Why do catchers who will obviously be ML hitters consistently get drafted after IF's and P's who won't make ML rosters? Oliva is exhibit A this year. He'll be good enough defensively to catch every day...probably best as a vL platoon but I think his vR will reach an adequate 60.
San Juan at #33 Leyson Rodriguez, 1B/OF - probably a 4A, but if you stare long enough you might see a ML hitter. Either way, a better pick than many before him.
Some doubts...probably had a better pick available:
Cleveland at #4: Henry Holm, SP (I didn't scout him) - Just based on the currents I'm seeing a prospect who's starting too low to be an impact pitcher. There always seem to be 2 or 3 guys (but rarely more) in every draft who develop remarkably, but I don't think Holm will be one. He's always going to be vulnerable to righties, and it doesn't appear his pitches will be good enough to bail out that flaw. This draft really starts here at #4.
Durham at #5: Rusty Wood, 2B (I didn't scout him) - maybe close to a reasonable pick here depending on good glove development (starting at 50, can he get to 70?) and CON, PWR and EYE topping 70 (possible, not likely). Surely there were better choices, here though. If I squint very hard I can see a guy that can make an ML roster as long as he's cheap.
Florida at #12: Xander Maduro, CF - I'm guessing Florida didn't put too much into their scouting, as even my HS scouts saw this one coming - we moved Maduro down to 39 (they saw a non power-hitting, non baserunning, non on-basing non-CF). One better choice? The guy who went right behind him at 13, Melvin Lloyd.
At least they didn't eff it up - more or less made the right choice:
Oklahoma City at #1: Ryan Norman, IF (U of Michigan) - well, he looked like the clear #1 to my well-funded college scouts, although I'm not completely sure he'll end up as the best player in this class. While the currents of his contact and splits are disappointing for a 22-yo, he still projects as a multi-All Star infielder with 35-40 HR power (especially if the team ever moves from OKC). Norman and last year's big IFA, Peaches Eierman, give OKC 2 monster building blocks to finally get the turnaround started.
New Orleans at #2: Jed Sweeney, SP (Michigan City HS) - This one is a befuddler. Based on the projections of my decently-paid HS scouts, this guy looked like the obvious #2 or #3. When the currents revealed his starting ratings (especially vR and pitches 2-4), he looks like he should've been back in the pack some. I'm sticking with my original call that he belonged at 2 or 3, but I'm losing faith in the accuracy of any draft scouting.
Chicago at #3: Harry Mota, CF (Owens Community College) - rounds out the obvious top 3. Projects to a solid, 10-year centerfielder...maybe an occasional All-Star Game. He'll have exceptional range and I think his glove will improve dramatically given PT and good coaching. As a hitter, his CON and vR ratings are starting the highest and will probably improve the most. I'd like to see a better eye, but his contact skills will make up for it some. Typical season during peak years: .287/23 HRs, something like a .335 OBP. Maybe more HR's if the team stays in Wrigley.
Toronto at #10: Brian Thomas, 3B - I moved him down to 15 because I didn't think his glove would reach 3B caliber, and I thought he'd be a disappointing OF. On 2nd thought, he'll probably be a good enough hitter to be kind of a Dwight Evan RF without that much power. TOR could've easily done much worse at #10, and I'm not sure there was a clearly better pick.
Los Angeles at #15: Edwin Goodwin, SP - My scouts got in a big fight about this guy because they projected just-barely-ML splits but good pitches (especially the first 2); the nay's eventually won out and we moved him down to 26, but given the rapidly-plummeting talent level at this point he's probably a decent pick here. His splits are not so low that they can't reach mid-60's, and the first 2 pitches are already pretty good - he could have a ML career.
New York at #19: Weldon Bates, LF - With heroic development, he could become a speedy, defensive backup 1B/LF with no power. Everyone carries one of those on the roster.
San Juan at #20: Jody Mays, SS - His glove won't take him to a career as a SS, and his bat won't let him play anywhere else. AAA talent.
Richmond at #21: Wolf Tolleson, OF - Another potential fast, no-power, defensive backup 1B/LF. Probably has a better ML chance than #17 Bates because if you squint hard, you can see him being a vL platoon hitter.
Pawtuckett at #26 - Milton Sasser, SP - My scouts said he projected to be right on the cusp of ML talent, IF he reached his projections. Sadly (and commonly), that will not be the case. AAA ceiling.
Cleveland at #29: Anthony Berry, 2B/CF - almost any player who can get to minimum 2B/CF defensive standards (range/glove of 80/70 or so)has a ML shot IF they can bring one other trick to the party, contact, eye, speed, something. Scouting on Berry said the one thing was hitting, despite a poor eye. His currents don't inspire optimism, but we'll see.
Jacksonville at #32: Hayes Rando, SS - outside shot at becoming a good enough defender to see ML time. Good pick if your expectations are moderate.
Most likely to exceed expectations
Scottsdale at #9: James Appel, SP (Salt Lake Community College) - I had Appel at #7, right between Ortiz at 4 and Raines at 9. So with expected fuzziness, I figured they were all about the same. With his control and splits starting quite a bit higher than the other 2, Appel looks like the winner of the top-10 SP sweepstakes. He is a couple of years older than the other 2, so maybe he won't develop as well, but his CON and splits are at least in sight of ML levels. It'll be an interesting case study to watch these 3..I think Appel will be the winner.
Pittsburgh at #14: Joey Levis, RF - overall probably the best pick so far. His projections suggested his CON, PWR and vR were the make-or-break ratings, and they're all starting quite high for a 19-yo. vL and Eye aren't going to be anything special, but he'll be a pretty good RF. I think he'll be a good enough bat to make a couple of All-Star appearances. Odd ratings note: my scouts projected his PAT, TEM, and MU all at 100.
Montreal at #16: Patrick Axelrod, 3B - I was hopeful on him at #12, based on that promising vR, a decent batting eye, and potentially 3B-level defensive credentials. I don't think he'll be a 3B, but the bat's going to be there, especially against RHP. At this point in this draft, pretty darn good.
Las Vegas at #22, George Griffin, SP - one of the few finds after #10 this year. I had him at #8 based on promising pitches and not-disastrous split projections. While his vL is starting woefully low, his vR isn't, and those first 2 pitches still promise t be special.
Toronto at #30, Stuart Maxwell, RP - I'm not wildly optimistic he'll be a nice surprise, but I think he'll make a ML bullpen for a few seasons. Not bad for #30.
Most likely to disappoint
Salt Lake City at #6: Albert Ortiz, SP (Soper HS) - as in, already the biggest disappointment of the Top 10. My reasonably well-paid ($14MM) HS scouts insisted I move him all the way up to #4 based on their estimates of stratospheric CON and vR ratings. And he starts at 56 and 49? I'm starting to think the way to get talent is just go all-FA all the time. With decent development he's still a major leaguer but a far cry from the potential star my scouts envisioned.
Houston at #8: Doug Raines, SP - it's official, $14MM in scouting is the new $0...my projections for this guy bear no resemblance whatsoever to the reality. I had him at #9 only because his pitch projections were terrible; now, his pitches look way better than my projections while his control and splits are 40 points under my projections. Much like Ortiz, he could grow into a ML pitcher, but he's disappointing for a #8 pick.
Toledo at #11: Morris Watson, SP - My projections on this guy were truly exciting; good enough Control, splits and even pitches to move him to #6. As seems to be the theme for me and HS draftees in this class, his control and splits are starting 30-40 points below my scouts' projections. On the positive side, his P1 and P2 are already decent, so let's hope he sees some heroic development on the splits. Likely scenario is a distinguished AAA career.
A little intrigue for other reasons
Columbus at #17: Steve Alfaro, SP - intriguing because this is the 1st-rounder whose current ratings look the least like what my projections were. Odd considering he's a college guy, and my college scouting budget is, well...the most it can be. I am now 99% sure I'm going to punt the draft in the future.
Colorado at #18: Jim Myers, SP - intriguing because this was a great gamble at 18. My scouts said there was a whiff of a chance he could be one of those mid-40's control guys with an explosive arm - high enough splits and pitches to offset the control trouble. The gamble didn't work out, but nothing lost at this point.
Philadelphia at #23, Brandon Francouer, 2B - in this category mostly because he didn't fit anywhere else, but also because he does have chance to make the Bigs. His defense could reach decent 2B status, and he already has some power...maybe his contact will eventually offset his low splits.
San Francisco at #31, Teodoro Hollands, OF - intriguing because my projections were so far off on him that I think I'm now looking at a totally different player. The big power project guys are more fun than other picks here, because 15 seasons down the road you might get to make a WC post that says your guy has 700 MiL homers.
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Saturday, October 5, 2019
Trade Thoughts, Volume 3
Sorry it has been so long. I've been pretty busy with having to attend various sporting events as Principal of the school. However, there is nothing going on this weekend so I caught up.
The Montgomery Scotts trade Orlando Tarasco to the Chicago Orphans for Wladimir Mercado and cash
Solid move for both sides. The rebuilding Orphans clear a lot of money from this year and pick up a solid relief pitching prospect. The Scotts fortify their rotation adding a solid #2 starting pitcher
The Montgomery Scotts trade Harry Lobaton to the San Francisco Fog for Yamil Cairo
A pretty clear win for the Scotts in abstract terms. Cairo is a average starting 1st baseman. Lobaton is an innings eating relief pitcher. Lobaton is a little younger, but not enough to matter.
The Philadelphia Erffdoggs trade JJ Lundquist, Corban Pierzynski, Enrique Eovaldi, and cash to the Houston Colt 45’s for Neil McGehee, Dallas Mann, and Glynn Howard.
What a move!!!!! Philadelphia makes a move both for now and for the next decade. Mann and Howard are ML ready youth. Mann is a #2 starter that could become a low end #1 and Howard is a solid setup A guy. Both will be key parts of the Philly staff for years. McGehee is an average starting CF, nothing impressive, but useful. Houston, on the other hand, must have seen themselves as not quite ready yet and turned their ML ready prospects into their equivalent, but 2-3 seasons away. Lundquist looks like the younger version of Mann and Pierzynski is more of a #3/strong #4 type, but still a nice piece. Eovaldi is just a bullpen guy.
I like this deal because the thesis for both sides is obvious. Philly wants to contend now, but give also give themselves years of running room. Houston must think they are two seasons away. This trade should be seen as a lesson for younger players. All your moves should be pointed to same outcome.
The Oklahoma City Apocalypse trade Quentin McGowan to the Oakland A’s for Dennis Cox
Just OKC helping out Oakland with their roster issues.
The Jacksonville Fake ID’s trade Kes Bittle and Dick Roberts to Oakland A’s for Terrence Jones
Just Jacksonville helping out Oakland with their roster issues
The Oakland A’s trade Wayne Langerhans and cash to the Columbus Buckeyes Vic Guerrieri, Alex Lopez, and Achillies Hoffman
Not a big fan of this deal ;)
Kidding. This is a tremendous deal for the Buckeyes. Langerhans is a terrific 3rd baseman. Plus power, speed, and defense with no real weakness. He is on a expiring so there is that, but seeing as how Columbus is a real threat to win the WS this season Langerhans is an ideal piece to add towards that effort.
Guerrieri makes a lot more sense on the A’s where he can start than riding Columbus bench if he is older and just a guy. Lopez is an interesting young player. If there can be an elite backup catcher he is. If he had better durability he’d be an above average starting C, but he doesn’t so he isn’t. It’s a little harder for me to place exactly what Hoffman will be, but he is young so maybe he will be a ML leave catcher or DH. In the end he is probably a 24th/25th guy on a good team. Nice bat off the bench who can play catcher if you need him to. The A’s didn’t get a ton, but probably more value than the type A they would have gotten otherwise so a move that makes sense.
At the end of day Columbus got to rent an all-star for spare parts and will still get the type A. I imagine their scouting budget is limited, but who knows. Nice move!
The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Tony Leonard, Miguel De Aza, and Santiago Quintero to the Chicago Orphans Wily Osoria and cash
A nice move for Jackson who is on the edge of being a World Series contender. Osoria is old (37), but a useful bullpen piece. Chicago, on the other hand, gets a bunch of AAAA guys. Not an embarrassing deal, but no real value for Chicago
The Chicago Orphans trade Addison Jamie to the New Orleans Voodoo for Ernesto Olivares, Wilin Asencio, and Eugenio Martain
I love this deal for Chicago. Jamie is the rare hollow rating pitcher. You see SS/3B types that will have an 85 overall rating, but are really below average starting ML players. They will have high health/durability with having not quite enough glover for SS and not quite enough bat for 3B. Jamie is kind of an overqualified long reliever. He has the arm to be used for 3 innings 75 times a year, but not quite the stuff to make you want to use him that way. His stuff is fine, but not the elite stuff you would think a guy with an 86 overall rating would have. I would have done this deal for Olivares alone. Olivares is young (20) high OBP RF’er. Above average corner outfielder for sure. Asencio will have to be used correctly as a platoon catcher, but he is ML level and to me just a bonus. Martin was certainly a throw in and is just a bat off the bench.
The Scottsdale Cardinals trade Greg Everett and Gerald Gentry to the Montreal Shamrocks for Matt Shaban
Well I don’t really like Shaban, but he is the guy in the deal who will see the ML’s so I guess Scottsdale wins the deal.
The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Michael Higashioka and Tuck Walsh to the Chicago Orphans for Hack Palmer and cash
A pure salary dump. Palmer is now Jackson’s backup catcher and Chicago gets out from his season 45 money.
The Oklahoma City Apocalypse trade Jeremy Desmond to the Chicago Orphans for Robin Raymond
I think someone accidently hit the offer button and someone else accidently accepted it.
The Chicago Orphans trade Hong-Chih Park to the Milwaukee Chedda for Thom Volstad, Duke Clinton, and Geovany Mateo
A weird deal. Milwaukee picks up a solid ML starting level corner outfielder. Not a real difference maker, but he’s fine. Chicago picks up a guy I liked 5 seasons ago (Volstad), a guy who may never make the ML (Clinton), and a solid rp prospect (Mateo). I guess if I just view the deal as Park for Mateo I like it for both sides.
The Montgomery Scotts trade Orlando Tarasco to the Chicago Orphans for Wladimir Mercado and cash
Solid move for both sides. The rebuilding Orphans clear a lot of money from this year and pick up a solid relief pitching prospect. The Scotts fortify their rotation adding a solid #2 starting pitcher
The Montgomery Scotts trade Harry Lobaton to the San Francisco Fog for Yamil Cairo
A pretty clear win for the Scotts in abstract terms. Cairo is a average starting 1st baseman. Lobaton is an innings eating relief pitcher. Lobaton is a little younger, but not enough to matter.
The Philadelphia Erffdoggs trade JJ Lundquist, Corban Pierzynski, Enrique Eovaldi, and cash to the Houston Colt 45’s for Neil McGehee, Dallas Mann, and Glynn Howard.
What a move!!!!! Philadelphia makes a move both for now and for the next decade. Mann and Howard are ML ready youth. Mann is a #2 starter that could become a low end #1 and Howard is a solid setup A guy. Both will be key parts of the Philly staff for years. McGehee is an average starting CF, nothing impressive, but useful. Houston, on the other hand, must have seen themselves as not quite ready yet and turned their ML ready prospects into their equivalent, but 2-3 seasons away. Lundquist looks like the younger version of Mann and Pierzynski is more of a #3/strong #4 type, but still a nice piece. Eovaldi is just a bullpen guy.
I like this deal because the thesis for both sides is obvious. Philly wants to contend now, but give also give themselves years of running room. Houston must think they are two seasons away. This trade should be seen as a lesson for younger players. All your moves should be pointed to same outcome.
The Oklahoma City Apocalypse trade Quentin McGowan to the Oakland A’s for Dennis Cox
Just OKC helping out Oakland with their roster issues.
The Jacksonville Fake ID’s trade Kes Bittle and Dick Roberts to Oakland A’s for Terrence Jones
Just Jacksonville helping out Oakland with their roster issues
The Oakland A’s trade Wayne Langerhans and cash to the Columbus Buckeyes Vic Guerrieri, Alex Lopez, and Achillies Hoffman
Not a big fan of this deal ;)
Kidding. This is a tremendous deal for the Buckeyes. Langerhans is a terrific 3rd baseman. Plus power, speed, and defense with no real weakness. He is on a expiring so there is that, but seeing as how Columbus is a real threat to win the WS this season Langerhans is an ideal piece to add towards that effort.
Guerrieri makes a lot more sense on the A’s where he can start than riding Columbus bench if he is older and just a guy. Lopez is an interesting young player. If there can be an elite backup catcher he is. If he had better durability he’d be an above average starting C, but he doesn’t so he isn’t. It’s a little harder for me to place exactly what Hoffman will be, but he is young so maybe he will be a ML leave catcher or DH. In the end he is probably a 24th/25th guy on a good team. Nice bat off the bench who can play catcher if you need him to. The A’s didn’t get a ton, but probably more value than the type A they would have gotten otherwise so a move that makes sense.
At the end of day Columbus got to rent an all-star for spare parts and will still get the type A. I imagine their scouting budget is limited, but who knows. Nice move!
The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Tony Leonard, Miguel De Aza, and Santiago Quintero to the Chicago Orphans Wily Osoria and cash
A nice move for Jackson who is on the edge of being a World Series contender. Osoria is old (37), but a useful bullpen piece. Chicago, on the other hand, gets a bunch of AAAA guys. Not an embarrassing deal, but no real value for Chicago
The Chicago Orphans trade Addison Jamie to the New Orleans Voodoo for Ernesto Olivares, Wilin Asencio, and Eugenio Martain
I love this deal for Chicago. Jamie is the rare hollow rating pitcher. You see SS/3B types that will have an 85 overall rating, but are really below average starting ML players. They will have high health/durability with having not quite enough glover for SS and not quite enough bat for 3B. Jamie is kind of an overqualified long reliever. He has the arm to be used for 3 innings 75 times a year, but not quite the stuff to make you want to use him that way. His stuff is fine, but not the elite stuff you would think a guy with an 86 overall rating would have. I would have done this deal for Olivares alone. Olivares is young (20) high OBP RF’er. Above average corner outfielder for sure. Asencio will have to be used correctly as a platoon catcher, but he is ML level and to me just a bonus. Martin was certainly a throw in and is just a bat off the bench.
The Scottsdale Cardinals trade Greg Everett and Gerald Gentry to the Montreal Shamrocks for Matt Shaban
Well I don’t really like Shaban, but he is the guy in the deal who will see the ML’s so I guess Scottsdale wins the deal.
The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Michael Higashioka and Tuck Walsh to the Chicago Orphans for Hack Palmer and cash
A pure salary dump. Palmer is now Jackson’s backup catcher and Chicago gets out from his season 45 money.
The Oklahoma City Apocalypse trade Jeremy Desmond to the Chicago Orphans for Robin Raymond
I think someone accidently hit the offer button and someone else accidently accepted it.
The Chicago Orphans trade Hong-Chih Park to the Milwaukee Chedda for Thom Volstad, Duke Clinton, and Geovany Mateo
A weird deal. Milwaukee picks up a solid ML starting level corner outfielder. Not a real difference maker, but he’s fine. Chicago picks up a guy I liked 5 seasons ago (Volstad), a guy who may never make the ML (Clinton), and a solid rp prospect (Mateo). I guess if I just view the deal as Park for Mateo I like it for both sides.
Season 44 Power Rankings Volume 3
|
Teams
|
score
|
Notes
|
|
Jacksonville
|
2
|
Pay no attention, Columbus is the #1 team
|
|
Columbus
|
3.5
|
NL East once again reigns supreme
|
|
Milwaukee
|
3.75
|
Good enough to be in the NL East
|
|
Montgomery
|
4
|
The final elite team
|
|
Las Vegas
|
5
|
Very, very good. Could join
the elite
|
|
San Francisco
|
6
|
Solid across the board
|
|
Kansas City
|
6.25
|
Best team over the last two weeks
|
|
Jackson
|
7
|
Wins and wins despite everything else
|
|
Pawtucket
|
8.75
|
If this is 3rd best team in your division
|
|
Philadelphia
|
11.5
|
Just wins baby
|
|
Toledo
|
11.8
|
Best season in the Pak era
|
|
New York
|
12.5
|
Starting to fall off. Very
young.
|
|
Los Angeles
|
12.5
|
Best in the AL in +/-
|
|
San Juan
|
14.3
|
Strong last two weeks
|
|
Richmond
|
15.8
|
Terrific winning percentages in the minors
|
|
Colorado
|
16.5
|
First in the AL in runs
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
17
|
An expected winning percentage darling
|
|
Houston
|
17.3
|
And what a rebuild!!!
|
|
Helena
|
19
|
At least they are VERY cheap (22.3 million)
|
|
Honolulu
|
19.8
|
Best at throwing at would be base runners in the league
|
|
Montreal
|
20.3
|
At least they are cheap (31.2 million)
|
|
Boston
|
22
|
First in the AL in errors. . .by a lot
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
23.5
|
The struggle continues
|
|
Scottsdale
|
23.8
|
On pace for 9th losing season in a row. Maybe finnski and Dakar are
related?
|
|
Cleveland
|
25
|
Somehow is in the NL East
|
|
Toronto
|
25.8
|
Last in the NL in runs
|
|
Florida
|
26.3
|
Greatest closer ever Chaz Ross seems to have found himself again
|
|
Durham
|
26.5
|
Worst team over the last two weeks
|
|
Oakland
|
27
|
Still recovering from their start
|
|
Salt Lake City
|
27.5
|
Worst roster in Hobbs by 1 measure
|
|
Chicago
|
28
|
Last in the NL in ERA
|
|
New Orleans
|
30.3
|
May get relegated
|
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