Season 43 Trade Thoughts volume 4

The Salt Lake City Trappers trade Felipe Garza to the Las Vegas Mongeese for Juan Ugueto


Great move for both sides.  The Mongeese pick up ANOTHER solid relief pitcher for their playoff run.  My Power Rankings have them at the top of the 2^nd tier of teams so this is the time to make the moves that set you up to play like a top tier team.  The Trappers pick up a solid defense first catcher who is only 22 for a guy who couldn’t possibly be in their long-term plans.  Uguto is probably an amazing backup, rather than a starting catcher, but he’ll play 10 years in the majors and you take that if you can get it.



The Milwaukee Chedda trade Will Justice and Jarek Winston to the Oklahoma City Apocalypse for Bo Burrell



I was pretty busy when this deal was made so I am not sure what the thinking was from OKC.  I am guessing they were in danger of missing the MWR.  Otherwise they gave up the best guy in the deal, who is only 25 and not expensive.  I mean Burrell isn’t an all-star or anything, but it’s a curious move.  For the Chedda this is a 2 dimes for a quarter deal and you make that every time.  Justice is low end ML level starting CF who is probably better used as a 4^th outfielder.  Winston is a league average 4^th starter.  Meh.



The New York City Lincoln Giants trade Felix Cave to the Montreal Shamrocks for Sam Teagarden


I love this deal for both sides.  New York is one of the youngest (2^nd after KC) with a deep and talented farm system so they cannot have come into the season thinking this was the year, but then their division sucked and they are going to make the playoffs.  Why not use a little bit of that accumulated capital to give yourself an even better chance of making noise in the playoffs?  In Teagarden is only 27 so he’ll probably still be useful reliver when the Lincoln Giants peak.  Cave is an interesting prospect.  He isn’t really as good as his overall number indicated as some of his best scores are locked up in some of the less valuable areas.  Still, he should make an average to above average starting LF who will never miss time so a good mover for both sides.

Week 7 Power Rankings

Teams	score	Comment
Jacksonville	1.5	Slowing down, but still elite
Montgomery	1.5	2 wins better than everyone else over the last 2 weeks
San Francisco	3.25	It really should be a 4-team race for the World Series championship
Jackson	4.5	The most inconsistent of the elite teams, but still one of them
Las Vegas	5.75	This new guy is way better than weeback
Columbus	5.75	Elite at all levels
Pawtucket	6	3rd in their division, 7th overall
Honolulu	9.5	I miss Sean Cameron
Kansas City	10.5	Will finish above water for the first time since season 37
Milwaukee	11	Had their division in hand until recently
Richmond	11.5	24 back in their division, yet still may make the playoffs
New York	12	A lot of positive strides made this season
San Juan	12	Never lived up to their roster
Oakland	13.8	The unluckiest team in the league this season
Philadelphia	13.8	Could be the first playoff appearance since season 36
Colorado	16	Currently on the longest losing streak in the league
Montreal	17	I thought they'd be so much better
Boston	18.3	At least they are entertaining
Toledo	19.5	A step back season record-wise, but they did a lot of building for the future
Florida	19.8	Somehow greatest closer ever Chaz Ross started 2 games with a 17 stamina
Los Angeles	19.8	Iceman has had this team since season 2!
Scottsdale	22.8	Not closing the season well
Pittsburgh	23.5	I took my kids to the Pittsburg Art Museum and Zoo lately.  Good times.
Toronto	25	A second place finish seems likely
Durham	25.3	The AL East is so bad they are still in it
Helena	25.8	The worst last two weeks in the league
Houston	25.8	Progress was made this season
Salt Lake City	26.8	It will be many seasons before SLC sees the top 5
Chicago	28.8	Season 35 was a long time ago
New Orleans	28.8	As bad as this season, its actually an improvement
Baltimore	29.3	Only 26 games out of 3rd
Oklahoma City	29.5	Almost made it out of last.  Almost

First-Round Draft Review

#1 - Toronto St. Pats:  Royce Jordan, RF - It's not often we see a draftee who's ML-ready; Jordan may be as close as we get.  He certainly could hold his own in the Show now; do the St. Pats want to manage their win totals aggressively (watch out for the new mwr)?  The case for promoting quickly is more about the short productive lives of power hitters - if they give him 3 MiL seasons he'll arrive with the ML team at age 24, meaning probably only 7 seasons before that high-90's power rating will start tumbling.  On the other hand, he'll get to high levels for contact and eye, and might  reach low-70's splits, so he's going to be a really productive hitter at age 35.  Cherry on top:  for a few seasons, he's going to be capable of 70+ SB's a year.  

GRADE:  Toronto got lucky to see the clear top player in a pretty good draft and didn't mess it up - mission accomplished.  B

#2 - Hartford Monarchs:  Otis Hayes, LF - while Jordan looks like the clear #1, the next (pretty good) level is about 10-deep, and Hayes seems to be somewhere in that group.  My scouts think he'll be a very high power/eye hitter who struggles against lefties, and should develop into a very good LF, and his currents suggest the same conclusions.  Solid major leaguer here, but I'm guessing they missed on a better player.  GRADE:  C

#3 - Chicago Orphans:  Jerad Jones, SP.  The first truly intriguing pick, and not only because I didn't see him and don't have any projections on him.  Based on his currents, he might be that superstar SP Chicago (and all of us) covet.  He's only 20, so not one of those fully-developed 22-yo college guys, and his control (67) and vR (68) are especially high for a pitcher of his age.  I just don't know what the upside is.  Let's be cautiously optimistic and say his control and splits get to 83/74/84 with pitches of 75/67/50/40/38.  I don't think that's a CY winner but it's a good pick here (and he could beat those projections, too).  GRADE:  B+

#4 - Houston Colt .45's:  Shane Williams, CF - the scouts promised a power-hitting 3B with a shortstop's glove; his currents suggest he's more likely a 2B but a really good one.  His starting splits of 42/34 are a bit worrisome but with 74 power at age 18 there's clearly 40-HR potential.  I'll put up with a low BA/OBP in exchange for a 40-HR guy who's a + defender at 2B.  GRADE:  B

#5 - New Orleans Voodoo: Marty Austin, SP - Perhaps the first bobble of Round 1.  My scouts didn't see him but those starting splits of 46/44 are just too low to be what you want from a #5 pick in a decent (?...well, better than last year's) draft.  His first 2 pitches look like they'll be OK, but P3-P5 are going to be anchors to varying degrees.   Don't know what the Voodoo spent on scouting, but they likely had much better choices available.  GRADE: D

#6 - Oklahoma City Apocalypse:  Bud Benson, SP - Two-and-a-half years into attempting to get a turnaround started, the 'Clypse was desperate to land a centerpiece in this draft.  We moved Benson up based on having the best combined projected splits of any SP*** in the draft (*** see pick #19) and everything depends on him getting somewhere near those split projections (his pitches aren't going to be what gets outs for him).  GRADE:  not what OKC was hoping for here, but he'll be a decent #2 starter.  B - 

#7 - Colorado House of Horrors:  Ken Stevens, SP - Another top-tener I didn't see (punting the draft and going all-FA all the time is looking increasingly good).  More of a mid-relief/spot starter type with stamina in the 50's and durability in the low 20's.  He's starting with pretty low splits but his first 2 pitches could reach the 70's.  I'm starting to revise my opinion of this draft from "pretty good" to "good in comparison to last year's disaster."  GRADE:  he'll have a ML career but it'll probably be a short, LRB one.  C

#8 - Helena Hot Heads:  Donald Swindell, C - I had some optimism about Swindell as my scouts showed 90+ contact, 80+ eye and 70+ vR.  As usual, the currents disappoint - both splits here will do well to reach the mid-60's, and contact will only find the 80's.  He's still likely to be a ML catcher with some power - the biggest concern here is the development available to a 22-yo prospect.  GRADE:  C

#9 - Scottsdale  Cardinals:   Cameron Sears, SS - I moved Sears up in my rankings thanks to his promising batting eye, even though he clearly wasn't going to become a SS.  I still like him after the currents reveal, but it's probably going to take 4 years in the minors, lots of PT, and good coaching at every stop for him to become a ML-quality 3B.  GRADE:  this is where both bargains and busts start to show in most drafts, but this is a good, solid pick.  B

#10 - Philadelphia Erffdoggs: J.J. Lundquist, CF - At 5'9", 166lbs and a projected power rating of 90-100, we have the Toy Cannon of Hobbs, a truly intriguing pick at #10.  Where will that power rating end up?  I'd say 85 bare minimum, and possibly 95.  He's not going to be much of a BA or on-base guy - .320 might be a typical OBP.  Not likely his defense will reach CF caliber, but I think his D will be a huge plus in LF and a plus even in RF.  GRADE:  with his combination of power and defense at this spot in the draft - A.

#11 - Salt Lake City Trappers:  Brant Douglass, 3B - I dropped Douglas probably too far  (into the 20's) in my rankings more for personal preference than honest evaluation - I'm annoyed by hitters with the combination of low contact and eye with pretty good power and splits.  And that's Douglas.  Plus, I wasn't sure about his defense...would he get to 3B caliber?  If those doubts were assured he would've been a top-5 pick...as it is his currents give us more hope for his defensive future but some  doubts about that vR.  GRADE:  all-in-all a pretty good pick here but I'm going to start deducting points for missing #19.  B-

#12 - Los Angeles Motley Crue: Keon Lowell, SP - I'm a little stumped on Keon.  My pre-draft HS scouting (not $20MM but "pretty high") was bullish:  excellent control, good vL, adequate vR given the potential of 3 pitches at 80+.  Then the currents arrived and they're universally disappointing.  Maybe he'll be one of those guys whose ratings gallop ahead 2 points a cycle through 3 pro years; more likely he'll end up as an S5 for a few cheap years.  GRADE:  C-

#13 - Baltimore Crabs:  Jim Koplove, SP - Weird, Koplove (per currents) looks like more or less the equivalent of the previous pick Lowell, but my scouts seem to have nailed Koplove and vastly overrated Lowell.  In an anti-rl trend, maybe HBD scouts are more critical of the high-velocity guys (Koplove) and fall in love with the soft tossers (Lowell).  Maybe Lowell gets touched by the development gods and Koplove doesn't.  In any event,  by this point in the draft teams are missing better players.  GRADE: D

#14 - Salt Lake City Trappers:  Sam Leonard, SS - If a guy projects to 100 on both accuracy and arm strength, couldn't you convert him to a pitcher...kind of a reverse-Rick Ankiel?  That arm potential got Leonard a nice contract, although as a hitter he'll at least hold his own vs. LHP.  I think his range could get to SS territory, but his glove will have to improve 30+ points for him to be a valuable SS.  A decent gadget player at 14 in (what I now think is) a so-so draft isn't bad.  GRADE:  C+

#15 - Honolulu Luau Dawgs:  Cam Wathan, IF - Pre-draft, I liked Wathan a little better than previous pick Leonard because the scouts said he'd be a better hitter (especially in the power department), and he'd have a better shot at a SS's glove.  Wathan has a remote shot at becoming a ML SS, although if the glove gets close you might be able to put up with it to get his bat in there.  He's far more likely to be a 3B defensively, but his bat will be a little sub-par for 3B.  An interesting tweener.  GRADE C+

#16 - Kansas City Jayhawks:  Joshua Purcey, C - My scouts didn't see Purcey so I have no idea what kinds of projections we're talking about.  Just a wild guess: dakar saw some pretty interesting hitting projections pre-draft.  Hitting ratings all starting in the 50's (save that 43 vR) though, don't foretell a hard-hitting ML catcher, and his defense isn't going to get him any big contracts.  I think #12 Lowell and Purcey have probably tied for "the most disappointing current ratings so far" award.  GRADE: D

#17 - Pittsburgh Dream Eaters - Earl Espino, IF - Coincidentally I had Espino at #17 on my board, and I remember thinking he'd make a terrific 2B/3B/CF/occasional SS utility type IF the pre-draft projections held up.  The hitting ratings might, although he's never going to be totally comfy against right pitching.  The glove and arm accuracy currents don't give a lot of hope for even utility innings at SS, though, so his value took a little hit right there.  It will probably take a full 4 years of development, but he has a utility man future at the ML level.  GRADE: C+

#18 - New York Lincoln  Giants: Reynaldo Exposito, SP - While I moved Exposito down to the mid-20's on my board, I did think there was a possibility his pitches would overcome some pessimistic projections for his control and vL.  Not gonna happen.  His vR is starting 50 points below what my scouts projected.  This guy's projections weren't great, but he's still more disappointing than #12 Lowell or #16 Purcey.  GRADE: F

#19 - Montreal Shamrocks:  Robert Gibson, RP - While Gibson's currents leave something to be desired, he should still grow into a nice short reliever.  My scouts were very bullish, projecting 80's control and 2 top level pitches.  He'll have to grow some to reach that "murders righties" plateau; let's see how his development goes.  I kept moving him up my board - he eventually reached #7.  GRADE: A

#20 - Las Vegas Mongeese:  Vin Andino, SS - Can you get a ML player at #20?  Often that's the question that determines the grade of a draft class.  I don't have projections on Andino, but his currents describe a fringe ML player.  His best ratings look like they'll be his range and arm strength...if those can get to 85 (iffy, not impossible) he may well carve out a career as a 2B/CF/3B utility guy.  Maybe even a regular fro awhile.  Some of his hitting ratings are starting pretty high for an 18-yo; his 50's splits and eye could reach mid-70's.  If so he will have been an absolute steal.  I'm not quite that optimistic...GRADE: B+

#21 - Salt Lake City Trappers:  Roger Mitchell, OF - contrast Mitchell's starting splits - mid 30's - with #20 Andino's - 50's.  That's a difference of 2 years of development, and unless he's this draft's most developable prospect there's just no way his splits reach ML caliber.  He does have some power - always a fungible commodity - so he may end up having some value as a throw-in trade chip.  But his contact and batting eye won't help.  I'm betting there are better picks available, not that our talent has fallen off at #21.  GRADE: D

#22 - Toledo Walleye:  Brian Graham, 2B - a bit like #21 Mitchell in that power is his main calling card, but there was enough there in his vR and CON that my scouts moved him up to #15.  He'll have to develop quite a bit, but he could eventually be a mid to low-level ML COF.  GRADE: B+

#23 - Montgomery Scotts: Gabe Huff, IF - My scouts expressed a lot of optimism about Huff's plate discipline, overall defense and the way he handled right pitching, so I moved him up to #12.  His glove has a long way to go, but let's see how he develops.  Possibly a ML infielder; this late in the draft that's a pretty good grade.  GRADE: B+

#24 - San Juan Padres:  Neil Brooks, SP - OK, how does a promising SP slide to #24?  Sure, he's going to serve up some meatballs to lefties, but his control will be pretty good, his vR could get into the 80's, and 3 of his 4 pitches will help him.  I'd love to get into the  mechanics of an HBD draft to see how many teams just didn't see a guy like this and how many passed on him.  No CY winner here, but a good ML starter.  My scouts saw him and I moved him up to #8.  GRADE:  A

#25 - Richmond High Rollers:  Nelson Malone, RF - My scouts pegged him as a high-quality ML hitter with a big strikeout rate.  Such a good quality hitter, in fact, that I moved him up to #6 on my board.  I was prepared to be disappointed in his currents, but also expected that as a 22-yo he'd be pretty advanced.  And yep, his currents are pretty high.  Glove needs a lot of work for him to be a RF, but he's close to a ML hitter now.  The big question is how he'll develop...those college guys can sometimes top out in college.  Tough choice between Malone and #24 Brooks for Pick Of The Draft.  GRADE: A+ and THE PICK OF THE DRAFT

#26 - Boston Beer Bellies:  Mycal Shumpert, SP - Shumpert is one of those good stuff, control-challenged guys.  His splits are starting  pretty high and could get into the mid-70's and his pitches will be OK for a ML'er.  Will his control go beyond the mid 50's?  I don't know.  Those guys with iffy control tend to need better juice than he's going to have to be ML winners.  He could get a shot though, so a fair pick here.  GRADE: B

#27 - Baltimore Crabs:  Polin Uribe, SP - Let's keep an eye on this one; I think we might have that rare prospect whose ratings ultimately exceed pre-draft projections.  My scout were cool on this guy...they expected a vR no higher than 69 and his first 2 pitches no higher than 71.  And his currents in those ratings are 59, 60 and 68.  Tap the breaks, it's not Sandy Koufax but those are decent ratings for a 19-yo.  That's 6 pretty good value picks in a row.  GRADE: B

#28 - Pawtuckett Paladins: Don Calhoun, SS - not signed and I didn't see him

#29 - Columbus Buckeyes:  Harry Faulk, SP - Big-innings SP who's only big shortcoming is his vL.  His vR is pretty good for a 19-yo, his pitches are going to be pretty good, control will be good enough.  But, how far will that (now 35) vL go?  My scouts said 55 and you know they chronically overestimate.  This probably keeps him from being an effective MLer, although he might get a shot somewhere.  GRADE: C

#30 - Pawtuckett Paladins: Joshua Fuller, CF - what can we do with superb speed, range and bunting.  Well something, IF the guy can at least catch well enough and/or get on base well enough.  Fuller's glove is starting at 54 so it probably has an upper limit of...75?  OK, if he comes in as a pinch runner and has to play an inning or 2 at 2B or CF on a double switch he's OK.  His batting eye will be OK for a player of this ilk, but 0  contact?  I dunno, I like Pawtuckett's thinking about the kind of player to try to snag here, I just don't think Fuller will reach base enough to have value.  GRADE: C-

#31 - Florida Poison Dart Frogs:  Skip Berger, 3B - With glove and accuracy starting at 47 and 45, can he be a 2B/3B?  Outside shot...let's hope, because he'll probably be OK as a hitter at 2B (and less likely 3B), but severely subpar as an OF - 30-HR power but 150-strikeout potential with AAA split sand eye.  To top it off he's a slow base runner with poor instincts.  GRADE:  C

#32 - Baltimore Crabs:  Beamer Olson, OF - He has my favorite combo of poor contact skills with a lousy batting eye.  Tailor made for an OBP in the .280 range...in AAA.  He does have 30, maybe 35-HR power, but that's his only ML skill.  I see a long, poverty-riddled career in AAA.  GRADE: D

#33 - Las Vegas Mongeese:  Will Crowe, CF - Has a shot to make the Show as a defensive backup/pinch runner/pinch bunter in the NL, although there are what, 3 roster spots like this in the entire world?  The speed is certainly there, and it looks like the baserunning can be developed.  And his hitting looks like it will be good enough for this type of role.  The big question:  will the range and glove develop?  Reasonable bet at the bottom of Round 1.  GRADE: B

#31 - Florida Poison Dart Frogs:  Gene Sutton, SS - To round out the first round, groth takes a shot on a pure SS type, hoping those sparkling defensive rating projections come true.  I'm more optimistic that he'll be a better-than average hitter for a SS than a better-than average SS; I think his glove and accuracy are going to be more like 80 than 90 but that would make him a ML SS.  Hey, if you get a ML regular at pick #34 in any draft, you've done something.  GRADE: A