Season 49 NL East Preview
Season 33: 96-66, Won Division, won World Series
GM: foolsgold79
Season 33 In A Nutshell
On the surface, this didn't look like one of the great teams of the steelforge era. The Season 30 edition won 118 games, the Season 31 squad 109. They lost CF B.C. Alfonzo right before the playoffs started and suffered through a subpar Kelvim Hasegawa campaign. But they got hot at the right time (.302 batting average for the playoffs), dominating Durham and New Orleans (7-1 in those 2 series) before winning their 2nd straight World Title in a 4-3 drama-fest with Buffalo.
Biggest Offseason Moves
Landed young OF Jenrry Zumaya for the headed-to-FA-in-1-season Vladimir Andujar, and got SP Wladimir Mercado for Alfonzo and prospects Hack Palmer and Rymer Deduno.
Season 34 Outlook
With all the trades, it's tempting to think D.C. is rebuilding, but closer examination says otherwise. Would they accept a bundle of prospects for Hasegawa or Lee? Sure, but in the meantime they're still going to win a lot of games.
On offense they still have 2 of the 3 stars (Hasegawa and Lee) that have highlighted their last few seasons. They added Zumaya,
who will roughly make up for Alfonzo's lost production and balance out the mostly-righty lineup. They still have the unheralded 1B Scott Barnes, who had the most-unnoticed .330/30/110 season ever last year. DH Carlos Tatis is coming off a typical .283/27/76 season, and the Franco/Wang catching platoon combined for 25 HR's and 81 RBI.
They're still looking for a CF, but this is basically the same lineup that posted 911 runs last year. As it stands now, this is probably no worse than the 2nd or 3rd lineup in the AL.
The rotation has the potential to be quite a bit better than last year's. Right now it's probably Shane Phillips (12-3, 2.97 in an injury-shortened season), Mercado (7-8, 3.53 last year for Iowa City), Louis Wilson (12-10, 3.41 for Columbus), Lastings Wood (7-5, 3.83) and Al Benitez (6-8, 5.14 for Indianapolis). That's not a bad-looking group at all.
The bullpen has some potential as well. Dusty Spivey took a few lumps but managed 17 wins (mostly in relief) and 6 saves. Dicky Wang has bettered his career numbers (buy a lot) in each of the last 2 seasons, so let's hope that's his new normal. Should foolsgold79 truly elect to contend this year, this is where he'll try to upgrade (along with CF).
Prognosis: As they stand now, contenders. Durham won 92 and Indianapolis is improved, but the Expos will be in it.
Trade I'd Like To See: Looking around for someone who might trade a CF an a RP...small fraternity. Nothing's hitting me in the face, tc me if some juicy speculation occurs to you.
Durham Dark Monsters
GM: doume
Season 33 In A Nutshell
Nice 17-win improvement for the Dark Monsters. They scored 72 more runs (879, 4th in AL) and posted an amzing jump in team ERA from 5.08 (14th) to 4.41 (6th). Josh Monahan (.286/52/143) was on the MVP ballot (again), won his 2nd 3B Gold Glove and 7th 3B Silver Slugger, and made his 7th All-Star team. I hope some of us who have seen him in his prime are still around when he's on the HOF ballot. At that time, someone is sure to say, "But the guy only won 1 MVP."
Biggest Offseason Moves
Acquired SP Chun-Lim Xaio from Columbus for a trio of prospects, and signed free agents Josh Garcia (OF) and Melvin Chang (RP).
Season 34 Outlook
You'd think this would be a basher team, with Monahan leading the offense in a very cozy park, but it's really more of a contact (.274 BA), get-on-base (.342 OBP) attack that runs a lot (233 SB, tops in AL, with only 84 caught).
Leadoff man Bernard Clifton typifies the approach with 195 hits, 75 walks and 48 SB's. The 27 HR's and 107 RBI (both career highs) didn't hurt. 1B Eddie Harvey continues the theme - 203 hits and a .301 BA. Monahan follows at #3, with their next best power guys, RF Radhames Mendoza (.273/25/112) and C Pablo Tatis (.237/24/74) in the #4 and #5 RBI slots.
Clifton (48 of 55) and 2B Victor Brady (49 of 63) are their primary base-stealers, although Monahan (35 of 42) and SS Jose Rosa were pretty effective thieves as well. Brady and Rosa may be keys to the season. They were both rookies last year and had their moments, but Rosa must improve defensively (25 errors, 12 bad plays) and Brady didn't hit enough (.687 OPS) to justify his barely-adequate glove.
It's the pitching, though that will more likely determine this season's fate. Gorkys Leon (13-10, 2.93) and J.T. Webster (16-7, 3.23) probably both deserved CY consideration last year, given their home ballpark. Webster seems to have adjusted better to the small park, posting numbers over 3 seasons only slightly higher than his Burlington norms.
Xaio appears to have replaced Christian Nakamura in the rotation, even though Nakamura (10-13, 4.06) was better than last year's #4 and #5 starters, Bert Brooks (19-8, 5.26) and Tony Duran (11-8, 5.67).
Yamil Duran has had a very good career, but has struggled in his 2 seasons in Durham (.772 OPS-against last year, a little better in Season 32). Melvin Chang struggled in New Orleans last season after 10 straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons, so there's hope he'll get back on track.
The rest of the bullpen is unproven, but I wouldn't be optimistic.
Prognosis: You know they'll score runs. It really just comes down to pitching (they didn't benefit from some flukey great record in 1-run games), and "regression to the mean" says their 2 top starters are not likely to duplicate last year's great seasons. I see them falling off some, to 85 wins.
Trade I'd Like To See: ??? Monahan to a contender for a 2B, 3B and RP ??? Much as I love Monahan, he's reaching the stage where the range, power and arm strength (all key components of his value) are taking hits every year. The ballpark inflates his stats, making him look like more of a power monster than he is...somebody might bite.
Chicago Capone's
Season 33: 67-95
GM: nesman
Season 33 In A Nutshell
Another rebuilding season. Patience required. They have 2 nice young stars to build around - Addison Oropesa (.291/32/99) and Jacob Sheldon (.253/42/99). But Sheldon's 28 now - they need to pick up the pace of talent acquisition to take advantage of the prime years of these 2.
Biggest Offseason Moves
Made a modest free agent bet on wild but talented SP Hong-Jin Wang. The ML roster is still incomplete; we're expecting some promotions and Spring Training FA signings.
Season 34 Outlook
Looks like more rebuilding, as the roster is still pretty incomplete. Season 32's #12, Zeke Sears, is the only one that can help this year - he'd probably be their 2nd-best pitcher. They have some other nice prospects (like last year's #6, J.P. Rapp) but they're in the low minors and won't help this year.
The lineup has some god compliments to Oropesa and Sheldon. C Vladimir Henriquez hit .278/26/61, 1B Javier Fernandez .255/33/87, and DH Gaylord McIntosh .256/31/88. So they can hit the long ball on you. They go for defense at SS and 2B, although 2B Cambridge chipped in 22 HR's.
Chicago's Team ERA last year was 5.40, and at this point there's no reason to expect better. Pascual Hernandez is the only reasonably high quality pitcher on the staff, and he's a short reliever. The rest of the pitchers on the ML roster (all 6 of 'em), are a little above replacement level.
Prognosis: 4th
Trade I'd like to see: Things feel kind of stagnant with this team. They could have improved the team a lot even with leftover free agents but even sat that out. At this point I'd like to see them move Oropesa and Sheldon for 6 prospects. They're both good power hitters who can field 3B...a pretty rare commodity and they have 2. They need to do something to get this thing moving.
Indianapolis 4th Chamber Season 33: 85-77
GM: iain
Season 33 In A Nutshell
Improved wins for the 4th straight year. Made the big move for pitching late in the season by trading Yean Carlos Gonzalez to Austin for SP Torey Izquierdo and RP Miguel Cedeno, but had plenty of hitting left with RF Darren Walton (.303/38/102), DH Mule Byrnes (.305/36/104) and 3B Trenidad Durazo (.281/25/83).
Biggest Offseason Moves
3 big trades netted relievers Roger Harvey and Ismael Zurburan from the quickly-rebuilding Expos, multi-time All-Star and Silver Slugger Vinny Catalanotto from Jacksonville, and coveted ace (and Season 30 NL CY winner) Joe Johnson from Texas. Promoted Season 32 IFA Julio Cano.
Season 34 Outlook
Gutsy move to acquire Johnson in the last year of his contract...will he re-sign for a team-friendly 2-year deal? No matter, iain is all-in for this year after a 4-season rebuild.
Joining Johnson in the new-look rotation are Izquierdo (9-9, 3.84 overall last year), Cano ($33MM IFA bonus), George Camili (19-10, 3.84 in a whopping 274 IP) and Wily Osoria (8-9, 4.64). Best rotation in the AL? Possibly, although I think D.C.'s could give them a run.
The bullpen definitely got a boost from the acquisitions of Harvey and Zurburan from the Expos, but it's still far from bulletproof. Bet on a midseason deal for another RP.
The lineup has no holes with the exception of SS, and even there, Derek Cammack can draw a walk. Dillon Hull (OPS .829) does it all in CF, Pablo Rosado ( .810 OPS) is a + hitter at C, and Jackie Blackwell (.831 OPS), with an occasional platoon assist from Alex Rijo, will be at least an adequate replacement at 1B for Gonzalez.
2 of the more interesting positions to watch will be LF and 2B. The venerable Vinny Catalanotto takes over in left. Will he have enough in tank to still OPS .850? Edgar Martin has a career OPS of .732, although last season slipped to .678. He's just 27 - watch for a big comeback.
Prognosis: 1st place with 95 wins.
Trade I'd Like To See: Once they prove they're a playoff team, go get a top reliever to set up for the playoffs.
Division Outlook
1. Indianapolis
2. Washington, D.C.
3. Durham
4. Chicago
Welcome to the ever-interesting AL-South, where over the last 3 seasons Austin and Charlotte have turned the tables on Texas and San Juan (winners of the previous 11 South titles, frequently under different franchise names and locations). With Texas looking like it's stepping back to regroup, it looks like Austin and Charlotte again, with San Juan scrambling to catch up.
San Juan Padres
bobbyj7
Season 33: 82-80
Season 32 In A Nutshell
Very nice 11-win improvement, thanks to a jump from 15th to 10th in runs scored, and an even bigger jump from 12th to 5th in Team ERA. 1B Bip Thornton (.297/32/88) and 3B Branden Clarkson (.289/42/90) sparked the offensive resurgence; all 5 primary starting pitchers improved their ERA's from Season 32.
Biggest Offseason Moves
Let LR Raymond Peterson and 1B Matty Campos walk in free agency; made a huge defensive upgrade (and maybe a slight offensive upgrade too) in CF with FA Alex Prieto for a steal of a price at $5.6 million for 3 years - great under-the-radar FA signing.
Season 34 Preview
Padres, please tell me you're going to make Omir Stowers your primary C. Yeah, average-at-best arm and pitch calling, but that bat is just too good to leave on the bench again. I know Felipe Cervantes is the rarest of birds who excels defensively at both 1B and C (a quirk of the diamond-in-the-rough algorithm no doubt), but that .611 OPS last year was beyond painful.
Besides, San Juan now has one of the best defensive squads around - Gold Glovers at 3B and SS with Clarkson and Orlando Mendoza, and potentially in CF with Prieto. Whoever mans 2B, be it Cookie Jamie, Alex Duran or Gerald Nakano, is also going to be more of a defensive force than run-producer. Not sure how they land another bat at this late date, but I'd love to see them swing some kind of a deal for a solid hitter for 1B.
OK, the hitting vs. defense debate aside, their pitching needs to look more like last year's than Season 32's. Rodgers, Duran, Bautista, Howard and Granderson started 145 games in Season 32 and 161 games last year, and all 5 improved their ERA's significantly. All 5, in fact, went below their career norms last year, so you have to expect at least some of them to blow up a bit this year.
The Padres run a mostly long-relief bullpen (4 long relievers), possibly as a way to increase the odds of finding 3 or 4 hot SP's for a season. Not a lot of breakout potential among this group, although Henderson Koloff has put together some good seasons.
I think they'll get some good things from their 2 exciting prospects in AAA - SP Ezequiel Escobar (Season 30 #22) and RP Ozzie Martin (Season 30 IFA). These 2 could be their 2 best pitchers in short order.
Prognosis: If everything goes right, they might push Austin and Charlotte. More likely, they improve some more from last year but still get 3rd place.
Trade I'd Like To See: Louie Almonte (Season 33 #9), when he's healthy, for a banger 1B.
Austin Massachusetts
raybie2305
Season 33: 97-65, Won Division, lost to Syracuse in the Division Round
Season 33 In A Nutshell
9-win improvement and 2nd straight division crown. Their pitching really came together, as 4 SP's (Dawkins - 2.22, Tepera - 2.78, Matos - 3.46, and Martinez - 3.88) posted sub-4 ERA's. The offense was wildly productive again (837 runs scored - 3rd in NL) behind another monster Trace Clark season (45 HR, .445 OBP) and the late-season boost from Yean Carlos Gonzalez (.326/18/45 in 40 games).
Biggest Offseason Moves
Gotta give raybie credit - he's not afraid to make the big deal. One was last year's trade for Gonzalez; they did give up a couple of good young pitchers in Torey Izquierdo and Miguel Cedeno. But not their best young pitchers, so I lean toward this deal as a big win for Austin. One downside: Gonzalez looks like a fair bet to go FA after season 38, so they may only get 5 seasons of Gonzalez for 20 or so controlled seasons of the 2 P's. The second big move was the big FA deal for Bartolo Cela, which I love - it fills a critical position need, and I don't think his age-30's ratings decline (power mostly, but some range too) will diminish his value much over the contract. My bigger concern is the injury risk. Their 3rd big move was the trade for C Rickey Long, which I don't think was well advised (other than it let them move on from Cy Knepper, which now that I look more closely, may have been worth it just for that)...more on that in Outlook.
Season 34 Outlook
In my (frequently wrong-headed) opinion, the Long trade forced them to play Clark at 1B and Gonzalez in RF, guaranteeing something like 35 bad plays at those 2 spots. Better to acquire a COF (in a preseason market awash with COF's...cripes, Columbus can't even get rid of Woody Reagan), put Clark at C, Gonzalez at 1B, and poof...erases 35 bad plays. They're a playoff team even with the extra 35 bad plays, but in the playoffs 1 or 2 bad plays could send you packin'.
<<<<Interesting side note>>> Austin agreed to acquire "perfectly adequate" LF Ernest Stynes from New Orleans for defensive stopper Yangervis Vega, only to have the deal nullified when Vega went #2 in the Rule 5 draft.
The starting pitching should be sterling again...is there a better rotation one through five in the NL than Dawkins, Tepera, Matos, Martinez and Ramos? Buffalo and Salem beat them in team ERA last year but both had much greater bullpen contributions. Give me Austin's rotation as the NL's best.
The bullpen will be better but needs depth. Hong-Jin Baek will snap back from his worst season ever, and Livan Maduro will provide 70 quality innings again, but they could use probably 1 more quality reliever (maybe not even needed until the playoffs, so a trade deadline deal perhaps?).
I asked raybie for his comments on the team and here's what he said:
"I'm very optimistic this season because I feel like the team doesn't have any major weaknesses. I think my offense should be top 3 in league, even without the ballpark effect. And I feel really good about my 1-4 SPs. I don't love my bullpen but hopefully I won't have to rely on them much. Of course 1B and RF will be defensive liabilities but if I'm gonna have duds in the field I want them at those 2 positions.
'Lee will be CF against LHP with Cela at 2B. Against RHPs I'll play Ryu instead of Lee, either at 2B or CF.
'One thing I'm going to be sure to do this season is make sure my guys are rested come playoff time. Even with a first round bye last season I still had guys at 95-97%. Dumb on my part."
Prognosis: Best case 100 wins and Division crown. If everything goes south they still get a wild card.
Trade I'd Like To See: scrape together a couple of middling prospects or younger MLers and send them to Columbus for Jose Palacios.
Charlotte Steam
boconner22
Season 33: 94-68, Wild Card, lost to Syracuse in Round 1
Season 33 In A Nutshell
In a stunning turnaround, they went from 56 wins to 94. They promoted most of the prospects obtained in the Season 32 sell-off, made big trades for Harry Johnson, Andre Counsel and Jack Allensworth; and eventually came away with Bucky Champion in the great mid-season waiver kerfuffle. One of the best-executed one-season turnarounds you'll ever see.
Biggest Offseason Moves
Parlayed a big suplus of COF's into SP's Vladimir Andujar (for Jenrry Zumaya) and Adeiny Cedeno (for Gustavo Trevino).
One might question giving that much for Andujar given that he's likely a 1-year rental, but they had (1) a real logjam of talent at COF, and (2) a pair of monster SP prospects at AAA (Paul Kinney, Sea 33 #2, and Geraldo Manto, a Season 33, $22 million IFA). Next season might be early for both of those prospects, but Manto could certainly make the jump if needed.
Season 34 Outlook
Pep Walsh ( .289/38/122 and reigning NL ROY) leads the parade of young stars that includes 2B Fautino Castillo (.288/28/91) and LF Octavio Trevino (.269/28/96). It seems like they've traded a dozen COF's this offseason, but still have Dallas Sever (.295/13/39 in 183 AB) to replace Zumaya in RF. Brett McMahan, an 11th rounder who has morphed into one of Hobbs' best DITR's, looks like he'll get 300 AB's as the primary backup at 1B and both COF spots. Charlotte was 2nd in the NL with 850 runs last year; they might not have the same depth and firepower this season, but I bet they'll still get well over 800 runs across.
Pitching was the big offseason focus. I'm guessing Counsel, Allensworth, and Andujar are set as the top three starters; they have 5 more SP's vying for 2 rotation spots - maybe they just go with the hot hand and spread 65 starts among all 5 of those guys. If I had to pick 2 for the rotation now, I'd go with Johnny Gardner (Season 30's #4 pick) and gee, I don't know. I'd probably audition all season for the #5 starter.
The Steam's late-inning guys get the nod over Austin's, largely due to the presence of Bucky Champion, although Freddie Martin certainly had a nice rookie season. One concern: with all the shuffling around last year, Champion managed to lose a couple of rating points. Nothing major, but when you're paying $15 million a year, every point counts (and he certainly didn't dominate in his Charlotte stint last year - .782 OPS-against in 39 IP...something to keep an eye on).
Prognosis: their pitching was quite good last year (right behind Austin's in Team ERA in fact), but some of those guys are gone and some bettered their career norms. I think they've done enough with the additions, plus Champion for a full season, that their pitching could improve even more. I think it's 50/50 between the Steam and Austin for the crown.
Trade I'd Like To See: nothing obvious...they still have just 12 position players on the ML roster and I assume they'll add a couple of backup COF's.
Texas Choades
josepaco
Season 33: 87-75
Season 33 In A Nutshell
Reached a 6-year high in wins but couldn't quite hang with Austin and Charlotte. Got outstanding pitching performances from Joe Johnson (14-8, 2.73), John Reed (25 saves, 2.95 ERA), Corey Booker (0.99 WHIP, 5 wins after arriving in a late-season trade), and Joe Cunningham (16-8, 3.52). The offense didn't quite measure up, falling from 770 runs to 701, as 1B Bob Tucker suffered through a "bad" season of only .286/39/113.
Biggest Offseason Moves
The free-agent departures of Corey Booker and John Shigetoshi marked the beginning of the "teardown" phase of the rebuilding plan, which has so far seen the trades of ace SP Joe Johnson (to Indiana for Phil Newfield and Gary Blair) and reliever Matt Naulty (to New Orleans for Bernie Escobar). On the free agent side they signed a couple of nice low-budget players in 3B Harry Estrada and OF Randy Floyd.
Season 34 Outlook
It's gonna be a long year (if all you're looking at is the W-L record).
As constructed now, Texas is competitive but not a contender. There's some pop in the lineup with Tucker and COF's Floyd and Willie Palmeiro (it's all righthanded but that's really splitting hairs at this stage). They have a very nice defensive duo up the middle in Don Loretta and Patrick Bordick. And the pitching staff still has some bright lights in Newfield, Cunningham and short reliever Reed.
Of course, "competitive" and "rebuilding" have to balance. Since the Choades won 87 last year, they can go pretty low and still make the 2-year mwr of 125. Let's say they trade Tucker and Cunningham and only win 60 - they clear they clear the mwr easily and set up to make the mwr the following year with just 65 wins. And I think this team would win more than 60 even without Cunningham and Tucker.
Personally, I'm a huge fan of the "Charlotte 1-year turnaround model". They won 81 games in Season 31, cleared out everybody in Season 32 and took their lumps with 56 wins, and bounced back with 94 last year. Would love to see Texas follow the same path.
Prognosis: 4th, but the more interesting question is how they go about rebuilding
Trade I'd Love To See: There are more than a handful of teams that would pay up for Bob Tucker...how about division-mate San Juan? Tucker for Louie Almonte, anyone? How about the Orphans? David James' contract is up this year. Eddie Harvey's contract in Durham is up this year. Seems like there would be more than a couple of ideal deadline deals for Tucker.
Division Outlook
1. Charlotte
2. Austin
3. San Juan
4. Texas
In a very active offseason, Washington D.C. and Iowa City have just agreed to perhaps the biggest trade of all of them: Iowa City gives P Wladimir Mercado for D.C.'s B.C.Alfonzo, Hack Palmer and Rymer Deduno. Here's how it happened from the point of view of D.C. GM foolsgold79:
"So Iowa City first approached me about sending Hack Palmer (Seas 32 #28 overall) Rymer Deduno (Sea 32 #39 overall) and Oswaldo Seguignol from D.C. for Wladimir Mercado (Season 30 #2 overall). I was ready to pull the trigger on that deal, but I had already committed Seguignol in a different trade.
'I countered, asking for Iowa City to swap out Seguignol for a different prospect, but he couldn't find a good fit. That's when we began to talk ML players. Iowa City came back with the same deal, but this time with Jenrry Zumaya in place of Seguignol, and he would also send me a ML position player. Having just acquired Zumaya, I was hesitant.
'I tried to expand the deal to include Mercado and a second SP prospect for Zumaya and Deduno, however he balked at sending a second SP prospect. We briefly discussed a super deal next.
'This deal would have sent Kelvim Hasegawa and Jenrry Zumaya to Iowa City for Mercado and Theo Schulte (Sea 31 #6 overall), plus complimentary pieces. I wasn't ready to give up that much of my ML lineup, so I finally countered back with a couple of variations of the trade that was accepted, at the last minute inserting B.C. Alfonzo. I did make a brief run at sending everything to Iowa City for Chris Osborne (Sea 33 #1 overall) , but I was quickly rebuffed and told he wasn't available. This negotiation took place over three days and 30+ trade chats."
In a very active offseason, Washington D.C. and Iowa City have just agreed to perhaps the biggest trade of all of them: Iowa City gives P Wladimir Mercado for D.C.'s B.C.Alfonzo, Hack Palmer and Rymer Deduno. Here's how it happened from the point of view of Iowa City GM slashtc:
"The trade started by him asking about pitching (as he did publicly I believe in the world chat). I told him I have some good pitchers, but they are young and controllable (and cheap) which was perfect for my rebuilding team. I view(ed) my future rotation as Chris Osborne (Sea 33 #1 overall), Theo Schulte (Sea 31 #6 overall), Mercado (Sea 30 #2 overall), Dan Keller (Sea 27 #5 overall) and a FA to be determined as my team gets better.
'It started that I offered him Mercado for the C (Hack Palmer -- Sea 32 #28) and DH (Rymer Deduno - Sea 32 #39) I ultimately got and the SS he had already included in another trade (Oswaldo Seguignol - which I wasn't aware of at the time). The big thing for me with the SS was he was a plus defender and a great batting eye (plays well in my park).
'That started discussions where I told him I needed something of value to me beyond the 2 prospects coming back to deal Mercado. I asked for Zumaya while sending him back J.D. Booker. He didn't want to move Zumaya (understandably). We discussed various prospects that weren't good enough to help my team at all. We discussed Hasegawa but that deal started getting too complex with Aramboles going back to him.
'We had essentially reached a stalemate. He hadn't rejected a couple of the offers I made meaning he was still thinking about them. I told him a had some other inquiries about Mercado but I wouldn't make a move today without giving him a chance to decide first. He sent me two offers with BC out of the blue (he had not been in any previous discussions). One was for Mercado and Schulte where I got BC and Zumaya. I rejected that one right away as giving up half of my future rotation wasn't on my to do list. The other was the offer that I ultimately accepted, though I did think hard about it.
'By ratings it looks like a no-brainer, but I have concerns about BCs health rating (and the fact he hasn't had a major injury yet) and his contract. This team is still at least 2 seasons from being really good. Once it is, he'll be approaching FA, which means other than draft picks (assuming no career ending injuries) I will have nothing to show for him. It's also $5M less that I can spend on IFAs after transfer and this is my last year to have a shot at that before I need to start adding ML pieces. What this may ultimately do is move my timeline up and I may become a player in FA next year."
