Season 33 NL South Preview

San Juan Padres
bobbyj7
Season 32: 71-91

Season 32 In A Nutshell
A couple of disappointing 71-91's since the 2 straight titles (Seasons 29 & 30). The offense fizzled again with 649 runs, although the pitching was at least competitive.  Orlando Mendoza and Brandon Clarkson won the NL Gold Gloves at SS and 3B.

Season 33 Preview
The Padres have done a good job of bringing up their young talent, but there's just not enough lineup punch for them to compete. They had just 2 players post .800+ OPS's last year -- 1B Matty Campos with .811 and rookie OF Roberto Almora with .869 (just 215 AB's). Their hits leader -- LF Aaron Rodney with 176 -- departed in FA for Louisville. Their one potential hitting star -- 3B Branden Clarkson -- slumped to .247, so we expect him to be better. RF Bip Thornton had some injuries and missed a lot of games last year -- he could be much better. Almora will take over in LF and could make Padres fans forget Rodney. Campos at 1B can still hit. But they've got 4 pretty soft spots in the lineup.

The pitching has been pretty close to league-average the last 2 seasons. The low-DUR Preston Granderson has their best quality arm, but is limited to maybe 120-125 innings max. Nolan Rogers has been pretty good, and I think he could throw more innings than they've asked recently. Bautista and Duran both seem like the kind of SP's that could have the occasional decent season, although only Duran has. I like Daniel Howard as potentially their best overrall starter ... let's see if he can put it together this year.  

Among their relievers, only Donald Helling (4.52 ERA in 63 IP as a rookie) and closer Dingo Cummings have much potential. I'd like to see Season 30's first rounder, Ezequiel Escobar (#20 overall), added to this group soon (or the starters for that matter).

I hope I'm surprised at season's end but it looks like a long year in San Juan.

Austin Massachusetts
raybie2305
Season 32:  88-74, Won Division, lost to Salem in Round 1

Season 32 In A Nutshell
Surged into contention with a youthful roster, winning the South and taking eventual NL Champ Salem to 5 games in Round 1 of the playoffs. Helped by the move to Austin, the pitching jumped to the top half of the league -- Juan Martinez enjoyed one of his best seasons (14-6, 2.90) and Torey Izquierido won 18 and made the All-Star team. 1B Trace Clark had his third straight monster season (.270/48/136) and the offense jumped to #2 (862 runs).

Season 33 Preview

Monster Move:  Acquired Season 27 Cy Young winner Derrick Dawkins for 2 prospects.

With respect to Louisville and its big-ass free agent wallet, Austin now has the best and deepest rotation in Hobbs. Dawkins and Juan Martinez (14-6, 2.90) are legit aces; Willie Tepera (Season 26 #6 overall) and Willie Matos (Season 28 #2 overall) are near-aces; and Izquierido (S28 IFA, $12.1MM) would be no worse than a #2 or #3 for almost anyone. Should any of those falter, they can turn to Hernan Ramos or Cy Kneper. They may not need much of a bullpen, but they've assembled an excellent short-relief trio in Hong-Jin Baek, Livan Maduro and Humberto Palmeiro.

The knock on Trace Clark as he was coming up was that he couldn't hit righthanders; after OPS's against righties of 1.098, 1.075 and .956 in his first 3 seasons, I think he's dispelled that one. Clark now looks like a sure bet for 45+ HR's and 110+ BB's every year. He joins John Small (.326/25/100, 46 doubles) and P.T. Feliz (.273/23/86) in the heart of the order.

With a .982 fielding % and 26/72 on +/- plays, Austin needed to fix its defense, and did. Paco Lecuona will be a real SS playing SS, letting Dave Bush move back to his natural 3B and Small back to RF -- defensive problems solved.  

So, this was an 88-win team that added an ace, created a bullpen, and fixed its defensive woes in one offseason. One of the favorites to reach the WS.  

Charlotte Steam
boconner22
Season 32: 56-106

Season 32 In A Nutshell
Management swung a series of surrender trades in the preseason and endured a near-brush with the MWR with 56 wins. But they set the future up well by acquiring big-time prospects like Fautino Castillo, Jenry Zumaya, Pep Walsh and Vic Merced.

Season 33 Preview
Big Move:  Acquired CF Harry Johnson for 2 pitching prospects.

Monster Move: Acquired SP's Andre Counsell and Jack Allensworth for Season 30 #1 pick Vic Merced.

Charlotte is trying to engineer a 1-year turnaround, and I think they might pull it off. They've basically taken every prospect they rounded up through trade, draft or IFA the last couple of seasons and promoted them all to the majors ... so it's a really young, still improving team but there's a lot of talent.

The bulk of their offense will come from their outfielders -- 1B Pep Walsh and 2B Fautino Castillo. They're a little overloaded at COF with Octavio Trevino, Jenry Zumaya, Dallas Servet and Gustavo Trevino, but I think they can find AB's for them all or, even better, trade one for another pitcher. CF Harry Johnson may be the key component ... he's getting pretty long in the tooth to be talking about his "potential." But here we still are, talking about what he might do.

Lead starters Jack Allensworth and Andre Counsel have mostly good records in their previous stops; beyond that the staff is a mystery. Likely 3 and 4 starters Rubby Franco and J.B. Mayne have been wildly up-and-down their whole careers. The rest of the staff is mostly unproven rookies with some promise (Jamie Bryant, Freddie Martin and Julian Amaro) and former stars on the decline (Mark Martin, Yamil Ozuna and Sammy Eithier).

Who knows what these guys will do? My best guess is that the offense will be pretty good, and the pitching won't be terrible but will have its issues. But it could be the opposite. In any event, they're young, still improving, cheap ($43MM total payroll) and way better than last year.

Texas Choades
josepaco
Season 32:  85-77

Season 32 In A Nutshell
Battled Austin all season and nearly closed the gap in the last week. Finished with 85 wins -- most in 5 years -- behind 3 All-Star pitching peformances (Quentin McGowan 15-9 3.65, Albert Chavez 2.15 ERA in 88 IP, and Matt Naulty 17 saves, 2.04) and Tarrik Stockton's career-reigniting .306 BA, 11 RBI and 82 extra basehits.

Season 33 Preview
Pretty active offseason for the Choades with Stockton jumping to Cheyenne and FA's Willie Palmeiro (1B), Hugh Moorehouse (C), John Reed (RP), Alan Hill (3B) and Don Loretta (SS) signing on.

We expect Palmeiro to play one of the COF spots (with Dave Rowe most likely the starter at the other) and replace most of Stockton's lost production. Bob Tucker, of course, is at 1B, gunning for career HR #500 sometime late this season, and John Shigetoshi lines up in CF for his 6th season in Texas. The other positions lean toward defense with Patrick Bordick at 2B (career OPS .727), Don Loretta at SS (career OPS .624), Hill at 3B (career OPS .720) and Ceaser Olivares catching (career OPS .771).

Joe Johnson (10-10, 3.98) didn't have a great year in Season 32.  If he can revert to career norms, AND Texas gets 3 more All-Star pitching performances ... they might have enough pitching to keep up with Austin. Big "if's" though: McGowan, Naulty and Chavez were all way better than their career norms last year, and it's hard to envision any of their other pitchers popping out an All-Star campaign. Maybe the ever-disappointing Jim Hinchliffe could ...he does have a couple of minor-league All-Star appearances. It's more likely that Johnson has a great year and finds himself trying to carry the staff (with Naulty's late-inning help).



Division Outlook
Austin has been building for a long time; with the big Dawkins trade it looks like they've finally committed to go for it.  I think they win the South handily.  The tougher question is whether the South can muster a 2nd playoff team.  It took 92 to make the 2nd Wild Card last year - that would be a 7-game improvement for Texas and a 36-game improvement for Charlotte.  Don't know if the Steam will hit that number, but they'll be Hobbs' most-improved team and will finish an interesting, albeit perhaps distant, second.

Season 33 NL West Preview

Scottsdale Cardinals
finnski
Season 32: 83-79

Season 32 In A Nutshell
The pitching fell off just a little, the hitting fell off just a little (despite the usual Bash Bros routine with 249 HRs), but it was enough to make a 5-win difference and a drop from 1st to 3rd.  Among the hitters, RF Lou Trammel (.293/41/114) and 3B Dwight Herzog (.290/27/68) stood out; Ivan Beltre paced the pitchers (10-3, 2.44 ERA) despite only getting in 129 innings.

Season 33 PreviewScottsdale has largely stayed away from free agency, preferring to "grow their own", and they stayed with the plan again.  This year will see the passing of the LF torch from 2-time MVP Moises Morales (664 career HR's) to Season 24's #17 overall pick, Tim Young (.285/.352/.491 over parts of 4 seasons).  Young joins a power-packed lineup that annually sees 5 or 6 players top 25 HR's.  They also keep the bases jammed, leading the NL with 600 BB's last year (CF Polonia led with 86).

While the offense has consistently thrived with that HR's + BB's formula, the pitching hasn't found similar success.  The talent is undeniable - Beltre (3.63 career ERA) and MR Marcos Presley (career 3.67 ERA) have been excellent, but others have been up and down.  Perhaps no player has typified the Cards' pitching frustrations like Calvin Ratliff, the #11 pick of Season 25.  After breaking in with a decent rookie season, he followed up with a 6.31 ERA in Season 29, then returned with his best season (3.09 ERA), then saw his WHIP balloon to 1.36 in an 8-9, 4.07 campaign.  He settled down to a reasonable .695 OPS-against last year, but has yet to put together 2 consecutive seasons commensurate with his talent (or really even 1 complete season).  If Ratliff (and maybe 1 or 2 others) can really harness his immense potential, the Cards will truly be dangerous.

Scottsdale sends out a pretty good defense behind those pitchers - a .986 fielding percentage and 55/45 on +/- plays last year.

This is one of our really fun, predictable teams in Hobbs. You know they're going to hit bombs with men on base and score runs, and you know the pitching is going to be all over the place.  In a different division, they might have won 3 or 4 in a row...in the competitive West, they're good enough to compete every year.

Honolulu Brewed Kona in a Mug
kona2008
Season 32:  82-80

Season 32 In A Nutshell
Been awhile since the glory days of this franchise (the back-to-back 104 and 105-win Seasons 19 and 20, although they did win the Division with 80 victories in Season 24).  Behind the All-Star, .313/50/130 season of 1B Trinidad Cruz and rookie Jecksson Bailey's 132 walks (.433 OBP), the offense totaled a respectable 747 runs (9th).  The pitching improved by half-a-run a game (Zach MacLaughlin was the workhorse, going 13-14 with a 3.57 ERA in 234 innings) and was key to the 7-win improvement (to 82).  The year was about squeezing talent from the farm system, as the Kona put (gotta be a record) 4 players on the ROY ballot (Bailey and SP Earle Carraway shared the ROY).

Season 33 Preview
Now can they get some more improvement out of all those kids (17 of their ML roster players are 27 or younger)?  It's an average offense that's about average (or a little less) in most categories except stealing bases (only 35 thefts). 3B Bailey is an extraordinary leadoff man and could steal a lot more than 19 bags.  Cruz is one of the league's premier sluggers, and is well-protected in the lineup by B.J. Dunwoody (3 straight 46+ HR seasons).  Beyond that the lineup is pretty soft, and isn't helped by the injury to Hamish Durbin (out about 65 days).  That also complicates their defense, which had its problems last year (.981 fielding %, although the 58/34 on good/bad plays was OK).  They go with defensive players at C and CF, although it's plausible that CF Beckett could improve on his rookie .723 OPS.

Whether their pitching can come through again is the big question.  3 of their big pitching seasons came from MacLaughlin, Carraway and rookie RP Diego Romo (7 wins, 13 saves, 2.48 ERA in 72 IP) - all with pedestrian splits but very good pitches.  Can guys like that consistently put up 3.50 or better ERA's?  The move to more pitcher-friendly Honolulu (from neutral Helena) will help, but of course will challenge the offense more.

This club definitely has things headed the right way, but it's hard to see how they can challenge the Big Boys of the West this year.  Still, a fun young club that completes one of Hobbs' best all-round divisions.

Salem Witch Hunters
tk21775                                 
Season 32:  93-69, Wild Card, reached WS and lost to Huntington

Season 32 In A Nutshell   
Great year for the Hunters as they fought through Austin, Buffalo and San Fran to reach the WS.  1B Miguel Matos (.289/60/142) took home the MVP, 2B Brewington (.264/37/85, 38 SB) and 3B Cooper (.287/33/101) were All-Stars, and LF Ike Allen (.321/32/104, 71 SB) took home the LF Sliver Slugger.

Season 33 Preview
Only minor changes for the NL Champs, although we're deep into Spring Training and we don't really know who's in CF.  The one big off-season move was the acquisition of RF Albert McDowell from Jacksonville for a pair of prospects. McDowell had a breakthrough season last year (36 HR's) and adds yet another power bat to Salem's long-ball lineup (240 HR's, 3rd in NL).  They're only an average contact team (.260 BA) and below-average in drawing walks...I'd like to see more of either from their non-power lineup positions (SS and CF), but you can't have everything.  Whoever mans those spots is at least going to contribute good defense.

4th-year ace Juan-Carlos Posada leads the staff.  The righty from Kellogg Community College has compiled a superb OPS-against of .591 so far; he can't throw enough innings to get a lot of wins but he keeps them in every game he pitches.  Geoffrey Carter (12-9, 3.99), Sadie Miller (14-11, 3.45), Davey Rogers (10-4, 2.92) and Derrek Finley (18-8, 4.50) fill out the rotation expertly behind Gonzalez (and for the 2nd year in a row, those 5 started ALL 162 games for the Witch Hunters...what are the odds?).

The bullpen is, shall we say, not the strength of the team.  FA signee Alexei Gardel might help, but with a career OPS-against of .748 it's far from a sure thing.

Still a team with its stars in their primes...look for another strong year from Salem.

San Francisco Fog
pfontaine                              
Season 32:  94-68, Won Division, advanced to NLCS and lost to Salem

Season 32 In A NutshellDivision crown and a trip to the NLCS in pfontaine's 4th season.  The Fog had the NL's 2nd-best (to Buffalo) Team ERA at 3.72, and pumped up their scoring from 668 in Season 31 to 741.  Closer Rio ("Wild Thing") Molina, SP Chili Baker, 1B Harvey Tracy and LF Wolf Purcell made the All-Star Team; and Tracy won the 1B Gold Glove.  Rookie 2B Jack Hayes (Season 30 #3 overall) sparked the revived offense with 31 HR's and 84 RBI.

Season 33 PreviewSan Fran dipped into free agency for OF Arthur Bryant, who looks to be part of a RF platoon, and SP Scott Atchley, who last year had his 11th straight season of 217+ innings pitched.

Otherwise, it's pretty much a copy of last year's team.  Not a big HR-hitting squad, Tracy and Hayes led the team with 35 and 31.  Leadoff man Purcell is one of the league's top table-setters...if he can get anywhere near last year's .326 BA and 62 steals (of the team's league-leading 189) they should be well over 700 runs again.

Staff ace Nolan Duffy has been superb since coming over as a free agent last year, winning 16 and 14 with ERA's of 2.82 and 2.53.  #2 starter Baker has been totally transformed in San Francisco:  3 straight sub-3.50 ERA seasons after a career of 4+ and 5+ years.  Mariano Mendez, Randy Krause and Atchley round out the rotation

Molina (control rating 38) is one of the wilder pitchers in the league, but seems to get the big outs - he's had 35+ saves in 5 of his 6 seasons.  Rondell Thomas (9 wins, 6 saves, 2.93 ERA in 107 innings excels in middle relief.  Sean Colin ("Wild Thing II") further solidified the bullpen with his excellent rookie outing - 6 wins, 8 saves, 2.30 ERA in 66 innings.

On top of everything else, they play very good defense - .986 fiedling % and 71/34 on good/bad plays.

This team will be very tough to beat if they can keep their scoring up to the 730-740 range.

Division OutlookIn the only division with all 4 teams over .500 last year, can ANY 4 win it all?  Almost.  I fully expect Honolulu to improve again, but realistically the competition is too tough for them to go worst to first.  Conventional wisdom would predict a SF or Salem victory, but I'm going out on a limb and picking Scottsdale.  Calvin Ratliff finally figures out how to pitch and propels their staff to the top 5-or-6 in Team ERA.

Season 33 AL North Preview

Kansas  City Jayhawks
dakar
Season 32: 87-75; Wild Card; lost to Philadelphia in Round 1

Season 32 In A Nutshell

The Jayhawks saw a 14-game improvement in the first year of their rebuild as the offense pounded 32 more homeruns than in S31, and a prolific bullpen turned in a stellar effort in support of a makeshift starting rotation. The pen came within 100 innings of matching the 771 logged by the five starters, and the relief corps’ 3.53 ERA was nearly a full run less. That effort was the primary reason the Jayhawks were able to reduce their staff ERA from 4.88 in S31 to 4.08, which ranked ninth overall in the league.   

Season 33 Preview

Starting pitching could be the Jayhawks’ Achilles heel this year. Kansas returns just two starters – aging veteran Tomas Estrada (141 IP, 4.52) and staff ace Khalil McKenry (188, 3.74). The most likely rotation addition is 24-year-old Pascual Cordero, who started 28 games in S31 in AAA and was a spot starter last season. Long relievers Ernest Carey and free agency pickup Trever Springer, at 40, are rotation candidates as both are former starters.

The uncertainty surrounding the starting rotation once again puts a heavy burden on the bullpen. The four best performers of last season return – Carey (130, 2.28), Myron Perez (99, 3.26), Hipolito Alvarado (96, 2.92), and Andrew Lane (35, 2.60). Free agency pickups Alex Gabriel (101, 4.71 for Montreal) and Lou Donald (93, 4.55 for Salem), and young Quinn Bishop (61, 2.95 in AAA) are solid additions.

The Jayhawks season could hinge entirely on their offense. Last season’s improved lineup lost just one starter – 3B Wilkin Guerrero. He’ll be replaced by Beamer Summers, who hit .298 with 13 HRs in AAA.

But the real stars are veterans Julio Villafuerte and Hugh Pierre. They combined for 79 of the Jayhawks 189 homeruns last year. Outfielders Fernando Bonilla (.286) and Matt Buddie (.297) are the table setters for the power hitters, which also include 1B Gary Torres and 2B Miguel Ramirez, both with 16, and C Jackson Parris with 14.

The first year of dakar’s rebuild was certainly a success, but the Jayhawks could be hard pressed to better the 87-win season of a year ago without a more stable pitching rotation.

Burlington Bodacious
downboy
Season 32: 71-91


Season 32 In A Nutshell

The former Vancouver Voodoo made some progress in the second year of a rebuild, improving their overall win total by 10 games. Free agent additions Carlos Tavarez (7-11, 4.67) and Rob Morton bolstered the starting rotation, and the offense benefitted from the additions of free agents Storm Mays (.264, 19 HRs), Peter Brumbaugh (.247, 16) and Quinton Schneider (.248, 5). The most noticeable improvement was speed on the bases. Mays and Schneider combined for 68 SB between them, which was more than the entire team had in S31.

Season 33 Preview 

The rebuilding of the franchise becomes a wholesale makeover under downboy, who moved the team to Burlington. Gone are seven of the team’s starters in the field, including all of last year’s free agent signees. The only holdovers are 2B Birdie Green (.254, 18 HRs) and rising star DH Alcides Santana (.291, 19).


Instead of dipping into the free agent market for help, the Bodacious turned to the Rule 5 draft to pick up four position players and a reliever, several of whom could be pressed into duty. The best of the group are 24-year-old catcher Dick Decker and 23-year-old LF Buzz Bunning.


Bodacious fans will need a scorecard to figure out who is playing in the field. All eight positions are up for grabs, including 2B where Green has been a staple. But the bat of Stan Magadan (.299, 30 HR in AAA) could power him into the lineup.  


Reserves Hideki Uchida (270, 9 HR in 293 AB), SS Enrique Lugo (.234, 3 in 209 AB), and 1B Peter Wall (.271, 5 in 133 AB) have some experience, and perhaps have inside shots at starting spots. SS George Sinclair (.276, 8 HR in AAA), like Lugo, is a defensive specialist who could be pressed into duty.


The starting rotation will feature 22-year-old ace Aroldis Urbina (209 IP, 5.17), veteran Johnny Montgomery (193, 5.31) and Tavarez returns for the second year of his four-year deal. Ruben Martinez (186, 3.04 in AAA) got a late-season taste of the bigs last season and was impressive enough in his three starts to nail down a rotation spot.


The bullpen will bank heavily on the experience of 36-year-old ace Alvin Timlin (71, 2.92), Dillon Donatello (58, 2.17), Henderson Farrell (49, 5.84) and free agent pickup Pete Allen (49, 6.84) in the early season as AAA promotions Alex Daniels, Gustavo Mercedes and Trey Reid learn the ropes.


The breadth of inexperience that will mark the lineup and rotation could be too much of a stumbling block for the Bodacious to overcome this season, and will likely negate the hard earned 10-win improvement of S32.

Philadelphia Erffdogswholck
Season 32: 95-67; Won Division; lost in Second Round to Huntington        

Season 32 In A Nutshell

The Erffdogs scrapped out a second straight division title in S32, led by an improved starting rotation and a stingy bullpen. Three of Philadelphia’s starters trimmed their ERAs significantly from the prior year, led by Doug Holt, whose ERA dropped nearly a full point (from 4.58 in S31 to 3.65). Both Glenn Bako (4.30 compared to 5.11) and Alex Quixote (3.49 compared to 4.28) saw their ERAs improve dramatically as well. Those performances, combined with a bullpen with a collective ERA of about 3.75 and an offense that virtually matched the division-winning output of S31, were enough to add 11 games to the Erffdogs overall record – good enough to catapult Philadelphia past division arch rival Kansas City for the second season in a row.



Season 33 Preview

Three offseason moves and a promotion should shore up both the offense and the pitching as the Erffdogs attempt to defend their division title.


Philadelphia countered the loss of 3B Alan Hill to free agency by trading for Lou Clancy (.255, 15 HR), and then bolstered their lineup with the addition of free agent SS Tom Padden (.258, 14). Both will complement an offense that ranked eighth overall in S32 with a .281 batting average. Leading that offensive charge were 1B Yamil Ibanez (.319, 31), LF Lefty Simon (.317, 20), CF Gene Cummings (.279, 22) and DH Dario Stults (.287, 46) – all of them less than 28 years old.


The Erffdogs will turn over the No. 5 rotation spot to 22-year-old Cesar Benavente (170 IP, 3.24), and long reliever Norberto Lecuona (82, 3.64 for Texas) is a nice replacement for Brian Wang, who was lost to free agency.


Aging veteran Rick Roberts (89, 3.54) returns to anchor the bullpen. He’ll get plenty of help from youngsters Che-Hsuan Woo (71, 3.15), Yordano Valdes (64, 1.97), and Dorian Tatum (23, 1.19), and the team is counting on improvement from 25-year-old setup man Yonder Samuel (44, 7.11) in his sophomore season.

Montreal Shamrocks
jmercer77                      
Season 32:  64-98

Season 32 In A Nutshell

The dead-last finish in the division was little consolation for the Shamrocks, but by almost all measures the season was a huge improvement. The Shamrocks were 15 games better in the win column last year, thanks to an aggressive effort to add some punch to the offense with free agent additions Trace Federowicz (.270, 24 HRs), Terrell Young (.265, 22), Terry Sears (.278, 23) and Del Camacho (.255, 16). It worked as Montreal improved its overall team batting average, scored 59 more runs, collected 63 more hits, 44 more walks, and stole 14 more bases.


Season 33 Preview

The transition continues for jmercer’s team. A late season 32 trade shipped starting catcher Camacho to Huntington for SP Aramis Romo. Starters SS Alex Duran and 3B Chi-Chi Figureoa were involved in preseason trades. And S32 starting RF Al Ethier has left via free agency.


That leaves four openings in an offense that will be anchored by Federowicz, Young, Sears, 1B Victor Ramirez (.279, 22) and DH Roosevelt Vettleson (.264, 12).


Reserves Carlos Polanco, 31, catcher; RF Fautino Mercedes, 3B Josh Gates, and light-hitting SS Yorvit Polanco are the best bets to fill those positions.


The starting rotation has three S32 returnees – ace Vin Gonzalez (197 IP, 4.56), Kevin Richards (184, 5.68) and trade addition Romo (112, 5.54). Four starters were lost to free agency, forcing jmercer to turn to the waiver wire to try to plug the remaining three openings. Former Louisville starter Juan Marichal (146, 5.23) will fill one of those spots, and former Salem AAA prospect J.R. George will be given a shot as well.


Last season’s glaring weakness for the Shamrocks was the bullpen. Seven of the eight relievers who logged more than 40 IP in S32 had ERAs higher than 5.00, and three gave up earned runs at a clip besting 7.00. Six of those eight are gone, but at the time of this report only one of those open slots looked to be filled – former Charlotte setup Pinky Leiber (101, 5.52) was claimed off waivers.


With a MLB roster numbering only 20 players at the half-way point of spring training, jmercer has some work to do to shore up the weaknesses of his team. The offense could sputter some early as Polanco, Mercedes, Gates and Ortiz settle into full-time roles. But the real worries for the Shamrocks will be the lack of pitching depth both in the starting rotation and the bullpen.


Division Outlook

The division is Philadelphia’s to lose. The Erffdogs have the best offense and the most balanced pitching in the division. Kansas City will, as always, be an outside threat, but the Jayhawks just don’t appear to have stable enough starting pitching to overtake Philadelphia. The sweeping changes in Burlington and Montreal make it very unlikely either team will contend this season. Their season medallion will come from the battle to stay out of the cellar.

- editor21

Season 33 NL East Preview

Jacksonville Men of a Certain Age
topoftheworl
Season 32: 77-85

Season 32 In A Nutshell
After finally winning it all in Season 31, J'Ville started tearing down its old and expensive, but still talented roster.  Albert McDowell (36 HR, 88 RBI) and Vinny Catalanotto (33 HR, 102 RBI) were very good, as were old hands Rick Branson (3.59 ERA) and Orlando Fernandez (8 wins, 18 saves).  Plus, they got a second consecutive unexpected boost from T.J. Maybin (14-10, 3.55 in 207 IP) as they stayed competitive in year 1 of the demolition.

Season 33 Preview
Year 2 of demolition.  They got a couple of good prospects for McDowell and Branson in the off-season, and said good bye to Jair Gonzalez.  Otherwise, it's one more roundup for 10 players aged 35 or more.  They do have the beginnings of a youth movement starting with 1B Yoervis Barrios (32 HR, 84 RBI as a rookie), 3B Tex Cromer (pick #32 in the Season 28 draft) and RP Tomas Adames (rough intro to the Bigs with a 5.00 ERA in 63 innings.  But the bulk of production will come from Catalanotto, Guzman, Hardy, Diaz, Fernandez, etc.

In this division this year, I'm tempted to say anyone could win it...anything can happen if you make the playoffs, right? But I think the odds of this roster making a deep playoff run are so astronomical that they should stick to their guns, land another prospect or 2, and start putting it back together next year.

Dover Rabid Dogs
kdfan35
Season 32:  78-84

Season 32 In A Nutshell
The pitching improved dramatically (kind of an across-the-board improvement that more than made up for an off year from Louis Wilson).  But despite a typical Woody Reagan effort (.314/34/111), Cela and Hasegawa slumped and the offense never got going (680 runs).

Season 33 Preview
Santos Eovaldi has taken his considerable skills to the AL. One would think it would be the beginning of a teardown/rebuild cycle for the Dogs, but GM kdfan35 has never been predictable, and in a strange year for the East, the winner may be the team that just decides to go win 80.
Dover has the best base talent in the division.  They still have one of the best OF's in the game - Woody Reagan, still in his prime at 29.  Cela at 30 and Hasegawa at 32 still have All-Star seasons in them.  3.47, 3.01, 3.03, 3.21, 3.69 - those are the best ERA's in the last 4 seasons of each of their likely starting pitchers (Xaio, Wilson, MacFarlane, Gaudin, Cedeno).  A 6th candidate, 3rd-year man Aurelio Borbon, cold easily post a 3.50 ERA in 200 innings (the mystery of why he hasn't yet has been part of their undoing the last 2 years).  The talented bullpen - Palacios 3.11 ERA, Duncan 3.73 ERA, Johnson 4.36 ERA but 2.98 the year before - would greatly benefit form the emergence of another disappointing young hurler, Alfredo Osoria.  Osoria notched 35 saves last year despite getting shelled - 6.12 ERA, 16 losses and 13 blown saves.  If there's a leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year in the NL, he's it.

I look at this team as completely different from J'Ville...if they could get into the playoffs, they could get hot and make a good run (sure there are a lot of "if's" involved, but it's plausible).  Watch Dover's start.  If they come out of the gate strong, look for kdfan to make moves to bolster the offense. The NL East might be the easiest route to the playoffs in all of Hobbs this year.

Trenton Thrashers
wrecks
Season 32:  65-97

Season 32 In A Nutshell
Trenton (as the Boston Basilisks) gamely tried to win with a pitching-and-defense approach, but 655 runs is just not enough to get wins.  The best OPS they got out of any player with over 400 AB's was rookie Delin Samuel's .774. Sensing defeat, they traded ace Joe Johnson and OF Alex Diaz mid-season for prospects.

Season 33 Preview  
The team brought in turnaround specialist wrecks to try to right the ship.  In their first big move they (like so many before them) gave up on Harry Johnson and sent him to Charlotte for a pair of decent pitching prospects.

The lineup will feature all-youth-all-the-time for awhile. They'll see if Esmil Despaigne's .779 OPS (374 AB's) last year was the real deal.  It looks like they'll turn over CF to Bernard Christiansen, their light-hit, good-glove #1 from the Season 28 draft.  They'll expect Samuel to improve on his pretty-good rookie year.  And they have 3 OF/1B types knocking on the door in AAA:  Glen Brisker (Season 30's #29 overall), Dwight Hee (Season 29's #20), and Kory Atkins (Season 30's #13).  It's a work in progress, but the Thrashers should field a more competitive offense this year.

The pitching crystal ball is murkier, to say the least.  They have 2 Grade A lefties, Don Bagley and Ramiro Lira, at the top of the rotation.  Both are imminently tradable, and you have to think both will be elsewhere by the trade deadline. The rest of the staff literally has yet to take shape; GM wrecks seems to be content to build a staff from the detritus of the free agent bargain bin.

It won't be a big win year in Trenton, but you'll see a turnaround get started.

Syracuse Lake Monsters  
colton_72
Season 32:  91-71, Won Division, lost in Round 2 to San Francisco

Season 32 In A Nutshell
As Dover and Jacksonville started rebuilds and Trenton (as Boston) gave up on its pitching/defense plan, Syracuse jumped up and won the Division.  They cobbled together a pretty good offense (768 runs - 7th in NL) behind guys like OF John Harper (.324/21/62), OF Angel Cruz (.296/25/85), C Alejandro Molina (.281/21/91) and OF Rick Black (.270/29/88).  The pitching, of course, was better than "pretty good" with Lawrence Hannity winning the Cy Young (20-4, 3.11), Bucky Champion doing his usual in late relief (34 saves, 3.11), and Derrick Dawkins firing aspirins when he wasn't hurt (9-3.1.84 in 112 IP).

Season 33 Preview
After suffering epic free agent losses (Hannity, Champion, Harper, Cruz and many others), the Lake Monsters decided to regroup this year.  They got a nice return for Dawkins from Austin (switch-hitting power prospect Doug Duncan and last year's #9 pick Lawrence Morey) and added 3B Chi-Chi Figueroa in a deal with Montreal.  They also made a nice trade with Burlington, bringing in CF Storm Mays to hold down CF for a season or 2.

After all the FA losses, the Lake Monsters will trot out a surprisingly competent lineup.  Assuming they promote Duncan at Game 20 (and there's no reason not to...he's in his 5th pro season now, so he's not going to improve more than a point or 2 here and there), they'll have pretty good pop with him at 1B, Molina catching, and Black and Kenny Wolf at the COF's.  The other positions will feature excellent defense with adequate hitting.  These position players will hit reasonably well while backing up the pitchers superbly.

And the pitchers will need it.  Face it, that pitching staff is going to be rough.  To build this staff, colton_72 added some budget FA signings to the back end of last year's staff plus holdover star Charley Crudale, and wisely kept adding until he got to 13.

It's not impossible that this team could see a few pitchers get hot and start well.  In that case, who knows?  I think it's more likely the pitchers get shelled and the lineup is good enough to keep them respectable...and they pick up another prospect for Crudale.  That wouldn't be a terrible outcome given the starting point.

Division Outlook
A lot of interesting things happening, but they just don't add up to a lot of wins this year.  All 4 teams seem pretty committed to rebuilding this year; barring some big moves, Dover probably wins this division by default.  

New Owner Intro: editor21

editor21
I'm a veteran newspaperman who cut his journalism teeth covering high school and youth league sports in my hometown of Humboldt, Tenn. Following my graduation from Union University in Jackson, Tenn., I opted to forego the drudgery of accounting (my degree) for the less rewarding but more exciting field of journalism. Currently, I'm executive editor of the seven-days a week TimesDaily in Florence, Ala. After playing Scoresheet baseball for about 10 years, I decided 4 years ago to try Hardball Dynasty after seeing a website advertisement on the game. Full of idealism early in my HDB experience, I usually took one of the most downtrodden teams and tried to rebuild the hard way -- through draft picks and international signings. I had some limited success until the revamping of the drafting process, but for the most part I've accepted the realization that building a contender using that strategy is largely a fool's game. Still hoping for an extended streak of luck and my first World Series title.

kona2008 Owner Intro

kona2008

Hi I am Kona. I am a 11 1/2 year old Golden/Lab mix. My owner rescued me when I was 2. I like laying around in the yard and barking at the UPS trucks. I have been playing HBD since 2008 with my Dad...so I have been playing for 55 years...dog years that is . I need his help since I can't type with my paws. We disagree often on strategy and I can be pretty stubborn and get my way most of the time. I also like long walks and rolling in the dirt. I got a pretty cool older brother Murphy who is a 12 yr old sheepdog. Got a new sister. They say she is a Great Pyrenees. I don't think there is anything great about her. As far as I know I am the only canine still playing this game. Anyway glad to be back in this world.

1 More New Owner Intro

wrecks
 I’m a 54 year old Contract Manager working in the Legal Department of a large internet company outside of Boston. Huge Patriots fan (and long-time season ticket holder) and Red Sox fan, and got into HBD from a member of my long time (25 years) fantasy baseball league who was a member of the Effrdogg Memorial League. Been hooked on the game ever since. I now enjoy the rebuilding process more than running a great team, so I recently dropped my good teams in favorof taking on rebuilds. Best HBD moment is my first championship. Average team, so it was unexpected. Worst HBD moment(s): 100+ win teams losing in the first round – happened multiple times. I’ve also lost 2 WS Game Sevens, which were pretty brutal.