Season 31 Draft Analysis

With most of  the first round players signed, I thought it was time for an analysis of this year's draft.   Interesting that the first round was so pitching heavy.  So without further ado:

1 (SLC) Tuck Howard.  Ostensibly a SS.  Arm won't let that happen, but CF/2B should be a solid option.  Will hit with very good contact, especially against lefties.  All other hitting attributes are good but not stellar.  Good player, should play in a couple of AS games, but as an overall #1, he gets a B+.

2 (CHY) Wayne Langerhans.  Great pick....except for that whole not signing thing.  Hopefully nicbase has the cash to get the comp pick next year.  Grade: Incomplete.

3 (SD) Mark Pettitte.  Not HOF fame material, but should make several AS games, especially pitching in Petco.  An above average player in every respect, the main quibble I have is that he will probably struggle to go over 200 IPs.  Grade: A-

4 (BOI) Jayson Purcell.  Another really good  pitcher except for one little thing.  He can probably only make 15-20 starts per year.  Relief looks like the better option.  Still a quality arm who should sign fairly soon.  Grade: B+

5 (NY1) Heath Dickerson.  My scouts missed him.  Grade: Incomplete.

6 (PIT) Theo Schulte.  Another solid arm who should sign soon enough.  Soft tosser who may struggle with the occasional tough righty, he is otherwise a good SP.  In this draft: Grade A-

7 (SAL) Arthur Taylor.  A future LF masquerading as a 2B.  His best attribute is speed, should be a good base runner who will draw walks.  Otherwise, he is pretty pedestrian at the plate.  Should be a plus defender in Left.  Grade B

8 (IND) Pep Walsh.  A good hitter with plus power.  Probably a better 1B than LF.  Won't steal bases and could do a better job drawing walks, but that is nitpicking.  Grade A-

9 (SFE)  Chris Lemaster.  Looks like the sort of player I usually pick.  Doesn't look even close to what the scouts are saying.  Definitely a RF rather than a 3B, his splits look more like 70's rather than 80/90's, and all his other hitting numbers scream mediocre at best.  Hitting in Santa Fe can only help so much.  To top it off his health and playing time both look sub-par.  Grade C+

10 (TEX) Rico Alomar.  SP whose splits look to undermine some decent ancillary numbers.  I'm seeing number 5 starter....maybe.  We are definitely at the point in the draft where talent is dropping off.  Still, there were better players out there.  Grade: B-

11 (DUR) Victor Brady.  Another of the many SS prospects destined for 2B, He has the ability to steal a ton of bases, and should be a decent hitter despite his lack of power.  While his splits do not impress much, his eye and contact are both quite good.  Grade B

12 (NAS) Dan Eibner.  Classic soft tossing lefty reliever.  May strufle to get some right handers out, but great 1st pitch and GB rating.  Grade B

13 (VC) Arodys Herrera.  Not a bad pick for this spot.  Will struggle some against lefties, but I have come around to thinking that the importance of the vL rating is overrated.  Otherwise projects as a solid middle of the rotation SP. Grade B+

14 (ROC) Matt Shaben.  Should be an OK 4-5 SP.  Throws very soft, and could keep the ball down better, but otherwise looks to be a major league caliber pitcher.  Grade B

15 (SCZ) Walt Hughes.  Think Matt Shaben with better velocitya nd FB/GB, but lesser pitches.  Grade B

16 (CHA) Freddy Martin.  Good setup A pitcher.  None of his ratings are eye-popping, but they are all at least above average and should be mostly better than that.  If he could throw more innings or start, I would rate him higher, but still a solid Grade B.

17 (LOU) Dave Zerbe.  We are definitely at the point in the draft where there are still ML quality players, but they are all roster fillers rather than potential stars.  Zerbe looks a lot like Shaben but with lower quality pitches.  Grade B-

18 (SJU) Dicky Kubitza.  One of those RPs who can save a staff by throwing a ton of innings.  Only problem is that his innings won't be real high quality.  His other numbers may not be too bad, but his vR looks marginal.  Grade B-

19 (CHR) Steven Decker.  Good news is he is a 2B who actually should be able to play decent defense there.  Bad news is his hitting may not make it worth playing him.  If he was a GG caliber SS, you would be ecstatic with his bat, but otherwise he is average at every thin ecept his batting eye, which is not good.  He should be able to steal a base though.  Grade B-

20 (SCO) David Kivlehan.  I like this guy.  Hs only Achilles Heel is his vL, but it should be good enough to get by.  He won't pitch a ton of innings as a SP, but they will be good quality.  Grade B+

21 (CH2) Matty Reyes.  If he was 18, he would be an exciting prospect, but at 22 he looks to be a bottom of the rotation SP.  Looks very average other than his velocity and GB/FB, which should both be well above average.  This late, that is worth a Grade of B.

22 (JAC) Carter Altherr.  This old man may turn into a late first round gem.  His power bat may make him worth playing his just acceptable defense at catcher.  Of course, his low health may mean he is too busy picking splinters to ever develop.  Grade B

23 (PHI) Chris Lush.  Assuming he signs (and he should), he is yet another SP who is weak against lefties, but should make up for it with his power arm and pounding it into the ground.  Solid B pending the outcome of his ratings when he signs.

24 (JAX) Sidney Seaton.  My scouts were afraid to look at him as they thought he was a gay porn star.  Grade Incomplete.

25 (SLC) Benjamin Peacock.  Speaking of gay porn stars, Mr. Peacock looks to have the range of a 2B stapled to the glove of a LF.  He does possess the ability to steal bases, but his bat looks like a backup for a few seasons at best.  Grade C+

26 (BUF) Colin Basile.  Another inning-eating RP, who will struggle to hang on to a big role in a big league bullpen.  Should make an OK SetupB for a few seasons.  Grade C+

27 (KC) Carter Rowen.   Maybe destined to be a reliever rather than a starter, but for this point in the draft I am happy with his potential.  Definitely a flyball pitcher, but that plays better in Kaufman than many stadiums.  If only his last 4 pitches were a little better....Grade B

28 (LV) Ignacio Morlan.  If that tightwad mongoose would actually sign his players, we would know more, but he looks like a potential GG LF who might platoon against lefties.  Grade C+

29 (LV) Orval Schneider.  Won't be worth signing for the money he will want.  Grade D-

30 (SAL) Gareth Damon.  May be a signability issue.  Looks like he will be a very good RP capable of over 100 quality innings.  Assuming he signs, and his projections are fairly accurate, Grade B+.

31 (DOV) Will Acker.  Appears to be a possible number 5 SP....or, just as easily, a mopup.  Grade B-

32 (NO) Tony Pelaez.  See Acker, Will.  Just not quite as good.  Grade C+

33 (HUN) Rick Ondrusek.  Same thing, just a liiiitle worse.  Grade C+

Team Notes Game 32

We're just about one-fifth of the way into the season.  Reality is starting to set in.  That sketchy left-hander with the career 5.32 ERA is not going to bust out his career year and win 20 for you. But there have been surprises, both good and bad.  Here's a team-by-team look at items of note throughout the league.

Chicago Orphans:  Despite a 4.89 Team ERA, the Orphans are in the middle of the NL North race.  They're 2nd in runs scored in the NL...the early standouts are RF Brad O'Connor (.336/8/21) and CF Yoslan Goya (.314/6/25).

Chicago Capone's:  Total pitching collapse so far...ERA more than a run higher than last year's.  Ray of sunshine:  their power hitters are connecting (4th in AL)...Oropesa leads with 10.

Cheyenne Huckleberries:  Starters Bellinger (2-2, 3.38 ERA) and Atchley (3-2, 3.38) are trying to keep the staff afloat, but after those 2 it's just a big barrel of napalm.  Despite being short on power (AL-last 18 HR's), the offense is scoring pretty well...1B Cooke leads with 24 RBI.

Charlotte Steam:  Could this team put away the NL South early?  2nd-best Team ERA (3.64) says bet on it.  4 starters under 4.00 ERA...T.J. Maybin has been lights out at 2-2, 1.79.  Remember last year's big trade of Kelvim Hasegawa for Rich Kohn and Zoltan Keppinger?  Keppinger only leads both leagues in HR's with 19.

Charleston Flying Divots:  Looks like a rebuilding year after all for the Divots.  I still can't figure out who's the bigger mystery, Derrick Dawkins (5.26 ERA) or Nashville's Jason Haywood (7.84 ERA).

Buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalobuffalo:  We knew they'd hit HR's - their 57 lead the NL.  If ROY favorite Carlos Valdivia (a tepid .261/3/5 so far) heats up, watch out.  The pitching just needs to get back to last year's level for them to eventually pull away in the North.

Boise Spuds:  Just trying to stay competitive during the rebuild.  Standouts:  SS Alex Duran (.299/6/23) and RP Jolbert Escobar (2 wins, 1 save, 1.07 ERA).

Team Notes at Game 30

We're almost one-fifth of the way into the season.  Reality is starting to set in.  That sketchy left-hander with the career 5.32 ERA is not going to bust out his career year and win 20 for you. But there have been surprises, both good and bad.  Here's a team-by-team look at items of note throughout the league.

Philadelphia Erffdoggs:  They were supposed to be lapping the field in the North, but the offense is sputtering.  Last year's leading hitters, Stults and Barnes, are slumping (.637 and .767 OPS's).

New York Sewer Gators:  Luckiest team in Hobbs so far:  18-13 while being outscored.  

New Orleans Big Test Icicles:  Riding a W10.  Seriously, 11 wins for Sam Stock?

Nashville BootLeggers:  Mystery:  Jason Haywood - 0-5, 7.84 ERA.

Louisville Hot Brown:  There are bright spots:  C Raul Villa (.358/5/26) and SP Willy Osoria (2-1, 2.18 ERA).

Las Vegas Desperados:  Just started a big series with Huntington with a 2-1 win.  21-9 based on a familiar formula:  Jumbo Sanchez (.387/7/21) and Jin-Chi Itou (.339/13/37).

Kansas City Jayhawks:  These guys were supposed to be rebuilding, but 8 1-run wins have them leading the division by 4.  Schedule's been friendly so far, but they just started a 10-game stretch against New Orleans and Huntington.

Jacksonville Three Meaningful Games:  The old guys still have some punch...leading the NL in scoring behind Vinny Catalanotto (.355/9/23), Juan Aramboles (.333/8/29), John Small (.415 OBP) and Tommy Webster (.320/6/27).

Jackson Mudslide:  Hitters are doing their job (168 runs - 4th), but the team ERA has exploded from 4.09 to 5.26 so far this season.  Springer's handing in at 2-2, 3.69, but the other SP's all have ERA's over 4.80.

Indianapolis The Next Episode:  Don't look now, but Indy has won 7 of 8 (after starting 1-21).  Farm-system reinforcements have keyed the turnaround:  new 3B Trenidad Durazo started .545/4/9 to kick off his ROY bid.

Huntington Fire Blitz:  Incredibly, they're outscoring last year's team, 6.83/game to 6.25/game.  5 starters (SS Porter, C Escobar, 2B Alfonzo, CF Lee and RF Gilkey) over 1.000 OPS (with LF Hasegawa "only" .989).
Durham Dark Monsters:  Cooled some after a hot start but still in the thick of the race.  Monahan's MVP bid:  .341/10/35 and leading AL 3B's in + plays.

Dover Rabid Dogs:  What's up with the Dogs?  They entered the season as the NL's preemptive favorite, but have disappointed at 15-15.  Scoring (4.3 rpg) is way off last year's pace (5.52).  First 5 hitters (Reagan, Woods, Cela, T.Hasegawa, Martinez) have been fine but the next-highest starter's OPS is Suzuki's .675.  On the bright side, the pitching has been brilliant - 3.54 ERA.

Team-By-Team At Game 30

We're almost one-fifth of the way into the season.  Reality is starting to set in.  That sketchy left-hander with the career 5.32 ERA is not going to bust out his career year and win 20 for you. But there have been surprises, both good and bad.  Here's a team-by-team look at items of note throughout the league.

Salt Lake City Trappers:  Huge turnaround (so far, at least) for the Trappers, who are in the thick of it in the anyone-can-win NL West.  Scoring up 16% form last year behind Trenidad Cruz (.297/11/26) and B.J. Dunwoody (.382/5/20).  Revamped staff has a 4.19 ERA vs. last year's 5.53.

Salem Witch Hunters: Just tied the Cardinals with an 8-2 run despite some slow starts: Brewington .248 BA & Posada 1-2, 4.44 ERA.

Rochester EliteDucks:  Surprise leaders?  Not really...won 87+ 9 of last 11 years.  Josh Garcia .291/8/18.

Pittsburgh Ellis D's:  Turnaround starting?  Season 28's #1 pick (13 overall) Danys De La Vega, just called up.

Team-By-Team At Game 25

We're almost one-fifth of the way into the season.  Reality is starting to set in.  That sketchy left-hander with the career 5.32 ERA is not going to bust out his career year and win 20 for you. But there have been surprises, both good and bad.  Here's a team-by-team look at items of note throughout the league.

Santa Cruz Sparkies:  At 10-3, best home record in Hobbs, so they've figured out how to play the big ballpark.  3 of the rotation have ERA's under 3.00 Miguel Cedeno 2.25, Ugueth Rodriguez 2.59, Mark Cloud 2.79.

San Juan Padres:  The offense is struggling with just 90 runs scored (15th). Last year's big star Branden Clarkson has not digested the move to SS well either on offense (.198 BA, although he does lead the team with 18 RBI) or defense (.920 fielding %).

San Francisco Fog:  Ragged start (12-13) for the Fog but just 3 back.  .333/6/21 start for 2B Chris Cromer.  Their big free-agent gamble, Nolan Duffy, has been excellent with a 2.53 ERA in 32 IP.

San Diego Surf Sharks:  Nice start at 13-12 for the Sharks, as their pitching (3.92 ERA - 3rd) is keeping them in hailing distance of the AL West-leading Desperados.  Despite Joe Wilk's bad start (.217/5/12), the offense is outscoring last year's edition (although still last : in the AL).

Team-By-Team At Game 24

We're almost one-fifth of the way into the season.  Reality is starting to set in.  That sketchy left-hander with the career 5.32 ERA is not going to bust out his career year and win 20 for you. But there have been surprises, both good and bad.  Here's a team-by-team look at items of note throughout the league.

Vancouver Voodoo:  Near 1.000-OPS start for 3B Bob Wilkerson and 2.25 ERA for Matt Grace (although he's the stereotype of the pitcher described in the intro) have the Voodoo at least flirting with .500 as they start a teardown/rebuild.

Texas Choades:  Bob Tucker doing his usual thing:  .409/9/20 through 24 games.  It's their pitching keeping them afloat, though (Aramis Romo - 2-1, 2.28 ERA thorugh 4 starts).

Scottsdale Cardinals:  The Bash Brigade is back in action (tied for the NL lead in HR's at Game 24).  2nd-year RF Lou Trammel leads with 9.  And guess what?  When you stop the other guys from scoring, you win a lot more games!  Cards pitchers have been masterful...Chiasson is 4-0, 2.18 ERA, and the move back to the rotation seems to agree with Ivan Beltre (2-0, 2.95).

Santa Fe Fire:  Must be nice: with their recent Game-20 promotions, the Fire rotation that will have them contending for the next dozen+ years is set:  Juan Martinez (age 24), Willie Tepera (25), Willie Matos (21), Torey Izquierdo (21), and either Cy Kneper (24) or Hernan Ramos (23). 

Season 31 AL South Preview

Jackson Mudslide
scottie14
Season 30: 86-76, WIld Card, lost in Round 1 to Las Vegas

Season 30 In A Nutshell:   Gave up a few more runs (50), scored a few less (40), which added up to 9 fewer wins, but still a Wild Card trip.

Who's Out?
FA:  OF Brad O'Connor and SP Quilvio Castro

Who's In?
Promoted: P Mike Bailey, RP Jason Mitchell, RP Jesus Nieto

Season 31 Preview
The Mudslide needs some resurgent seasons from "seasoned" vets to get back into the Division hunt.  1B Yonder Rosado needs to reach back a few seasons and come up with one more .800+ OPS; same for 3B J.D. Hardy and LF Michael Palmer.  2B Lou Clancy and RF Gary Person are still in their prime years and have started well - a hopeful sign. The pitching will probably go however their Big 3 starters (Springer, Mays and Ethier) go; 2nd year man John Punto also looks promising but is probably best-suited for long/middle relief.  When the game's on the line late they go most often to Alfredo Butler - he's had a rough couple years but is certainly capable of a comeback at age 35.

Jackson needs to have a lot of things go right to compete in the South, or may be even to compete in the Wild Card.  "Old" teams usually compete better than they seems like they should on paper, so I'm going to pick Jackson for a Wild Card.



Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  Finding a way to beat the Desperados in the playoffs.  They've won the Division 4 straight years, and lost to Vegas in the 2nd round in 3 of those (lost to Vancouver in Round 2 the other time).  With 97 wins last year, they're knocking on the door of becoming an elite team.

To Do That They Have To:  1) Get on base better - even though they hit more HR's last year than in Sea 28, their OBP was 20 points lower - and they scored 100 fewer runs.  New LF Palmer and new co-catcher Julio will help. 

2) Find another SP and another RP (maybe on staff, maybe elsewhere) who they can count on to shut down a potent offense (easier said than done against LV, I know).  As good as their pitching was last year (3.68 ERA, 3rd), Springer (11-10, 2.27) was the only "lock-down".  

Maybe Ethier (12-8, 3.42) emerges, maybe Baek becomes a dominant closer, and maybe they swing a blockbuster deadline trade.

This Team Is Built On:  1) Power at all 9 positions - yep, they had 9 players hit 20+ HR's last year, and 7 (C Ward, 2B Clancy, DH Valenzuela, 1B Rosado, SS Ross, CF Hull, 3B Hardy) are back; 

2)  Deep pitching staff - they spread the innings around (nobody had 200 IP) - but they still need to get their 180 from Springer.

Player to Watch:  New LF Palmer.  If he gets on base at his career .360 rate, the offense will party like it's Season 28 (891 runs) again.

Free Agent Signings:
OF Michael Palmer, RP Zeus Quinn, RP Kazuhiro Jiang, C Alejandro Valenzuela, C Orlando Julio

New Orleans Big Test Icicles
blanch13
Season 30:  103-59, won Division, lost to Las Vegas in Round 2

Season 30 In A Nutshell:  Rode Sam Stock's record-setting (1.67 ERA) rookie year to a big improvement in pitching and a Division title, but couldn't hold down Las Vegas in the playoffs.

Who's Out?
FA:  P Javier Beltre, P Brian Verlander, P Allen Harvey
Released:  2B/CF Davey Wise
Traded:  RP Andrew Lane, IF Raul Machi

Who's In?
Trade:  CF Miguel Frieri
FA:  P Bryan Iorg, P Brian Roberts

Season 31 Preview
Last year's offense was pretty good with 853 runs, and could be better with full seasons from Hector Cruz (deadline trade), Ismael Vidal (deadline trade) and Harry Johnson (early-season injury.  It's a pretty basic get-on-base (.348 - 2nd) and hit HR's (252 - 2nd) attack that can defeat pitching matchups with as many as 6 lefties or 7 righties in the lineup.  Johnson (23) and 2nd-year 2B Dante Kawasaki (22) can run, but steals are not a strategic weapon in the arsenal.

Unlike Huntington's unusual pitching alignment (which runs everything around their 2 big starters), N.O.'s approach is totally relief-centric.  The idea is to get 40 pitches out of the best SP matchup, then bring on Stock, Wilkerson, Duran, Lee et al.  Better seasons from Duran (3.67 ERA) and Lee (4.80) wold go a long way toward making this deal work, although it was pretty good last season.  The solid defense is anchored by Gold Glove SS Dave Leonard.

Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  Last year's playoff run was a fluke - the real breakthrough is overtaking Jackson for the Division.

To Do That They Have To:  Pitch a lot better - their 4.59 ERA won't cut it.  They experimented with a relief-dominant staff last year - it worked a lot better in the playoffs - and seem set to implement it full-time this year.  

They've rebooted with Ramiro Lira on the front end, Louie Lee on the back end, and certainly expect better than a 5.46 ERA from Aurelio Duran.

This Team Is Built On:  1) Relief pitching: Lee, Duran, Albert Gonzalez, Benny Marquez, Jeremi Wilkerson; 

2)  Getting on base - they'll rely on 1-2-3 hitters Kawasaki, Johnson, Green to reach base like dead Chicago voters - early and often.

Player to Watch:  Sam Stock will get the Game 20 call-up; they'll need him to erase a couple of middle innings most nights for this deal to work.

Trades
traded ML SS Bartolo Perez for MiL 1B Nicholas Wilkins
traded ML IF/CF Bobby Michaels for ML SP Ramiro Lira
traded MiL SS Derek Cammack for ML DH Vicente Rodriguez + $4.5MM
traded MiL OF Yoslan Goya and MiL SP Darwin Thornburg for ML CF Harry Johnson, ML OF Ernest Stynes, ML RP Louie Lee and MiL P Emil Ontiveros
traded ML CF Ezequiel Neruda for MiL IF/CF Matt Hunter
traded ML SP Ramiro Lira for ML RP Wil Gray and ML SP Oswaldo Beltre

Free Agent Signings
SP Brian Verlander, SP Vasco Gonzalez

Nashville Bootleggers
rbjb
Season 30:  71-91

Season 30 In A Nutshell:  Surprise down year for Season 29's 88 game-winners.  Scoring was actually up (772 to 789), but the pitching/defense exploded (724 runs allowed in Season 29 to 864 last year...56 unearned).

Who's Out?
FA:  Some FA defections by some mid-30's (age) guys...Ezdra Olivares probably the only one that mattered
Traded:  RP Jerry Ball, 2B/CF Tarrik Stockton

Who's In?
FA:  Although he hasn't started well, I think SP Jayson Haywood will prove to be one of this year's better FA signings
Trade:  3B Oswaldo Alberro
Promoted: C Torey Vazquez

Season 31 Preview
The most unpredictable team in Hobbs.  I can't tell if they're due for another down year or an up year, but everything suggests it won't be the same as last year.  If there's such a thing as a $12MM free-agent bargain, Haywood is it.  He's started miserably (4 losses and an 8.28 ERA in 5 starts) but will turn it around.  Even with Haywood's struggles, the staff is showing a huge improvement over last year - Vern Buckley has started 2-1, 2.35, Yamil Ozuna has yet to allow an earned run, and the rest of the bullpen is (so far) covering for some ragged starting pitching.  The offense has been scoring 5 runs a game and I think could get better...3B Jim Salazar (.444), 2B Dude Malloy (.329/2/9) and 1B Jamie Osborne (.323/2/13) have led the attack in the early going.

With the talent on this team, it's hard to see another down year.  I say Haywood finds his stuff soon and the Bootleggers end up battling for a Wild Card.



Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  After 5 straight Division Crowns (Seasons 21-25)  they retooled for only 1 year, then improved by 12 and 19 wins the next 2 seasons, getting back to the playoffs last year.  Breakthrough is nothing less than winning the Division.

To Do That They Have To:  Tighten up that defense.  107 errors was 5th-most in the AL, and their "net + 5 plays" (45/40 +/-) was way down the list.  That put pressure on a good (772 runs - 6th) offense and a pitching staff that was decent (4.15) ERA but certainly didn't need the extra baserunners.  

Thing is, I'm not sure how they'd do it.  3B Jim Salazar had 20 errors, but also contributed 19 HR's (and only had 2 bad plays).  2B Dude Malloy had 16 errors, but that was by far the most he's ever committed in a pro season.  1B Jamie Osborne (.305/32/98) and LF Eswalin Sanches (.288/33/103) each had 7 bad plays, but that seems a small price to pay for the offense they generate.  

They might have to live with the defense they have.

This Team Is Built On:  A little of everything except walks (16th in AL) and defense.  

They hit the long ball (Sanches 33, Osborne 32, Hillenbrand hit 42 total for 2 teams), they run a little (SS Paniagua 32 SB's, 2B Malloy 23  SB's), they have a dominant #1 SP (Nelson Jordan - 19-9, 3.22) and a shutdown closer (Wilkin Rios - 30-of-31 in save opportunities).

Player to Watch:  LF Kevin Hillenbrand OPS'd 1.032 in 43 games after coming over in a trade from Cheyenne; if he can keep it up he'll make the MVP Ballot.

Free Agent Signings
RP John Reed

Louisville Hot Brown
medeiran
Season 30:  82-80

Season 30 In A Nutshell: Stayed very competitive while starting a rebuild.  Young SP Andre Counsel and OF Charles Forrest led the way.

Who's Out?
FA:  OF Terry Sears, RP Tony Escobar, SP Bryan Iorg
Released:  P Herm Kapler
Traded:  C Rickey Long, OF Alex Diaz

Who's In?
FA:  OF Esteban Romano, SS Olmedo Tapies, 1B Damaso Sierra, 3B Jo-Jo Harding
Promoted:  C Jeff Travieso, 1B Santiago Cortes, 2B Takashi Jang, OF Vinny Howard
Season 31 Preview
Looks like the Hot Brown have committed fully to the youth movement.  They shipped out 2 of last year's top 3 hitters (OF Terry Sears and C Rickey Long) and seem to be going for the "All-or-Nothing" Strategy (low-contact, big power guys like 1B's Cortes and Sierra, 3B Harding, and DH Armstrong).  4 of their 5 SP's are 25 or under, and lefties Counsel and Willy Osoria look like they'll be long-term keepers...26-yo Anthony Paulino will be a bullpen stopper.

There's enough talent here to give Louisville fans hope for now, but the focus is a little down the road.  Outside shot at a Wild Card.

Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  With 5 straight seasons with 60-something wins and 3 division-mates at 88+ last year, the TIGERS are in danger of being irrelevant. They need to jump up into the 80-something win range and challenge somebody for 2nd or 3rd.

To Do That They Have To:  Figure out how to upgrade a bunch of positions at once without breaking the bank.  Don't know if they managed a bunch this year, but they're accelerating. 

3B Charles Forrest (.265/32/79) is nice offensive improvement over Matt Brown (.248/22/68); he won't win a Gold Glove but won't be the defensive disaster Brown was (38 errors and bad plays in 123 games started).  

Season 27's first-rounder, SP Andre Counsel, got his feet wet last year and should improve.  Ratings-wise, he looks a lot like last year's breakout rookie, Wily Osoria (7-6, 2.92 in 132 P) - let's hope his stats start to look like Wily's.  

FA Barry Tobin may actually complete the formation of a late-inning trio (with Paulino - 3 wins, 5 saves, 2.98 and Sinclair - 5 wins, 28 saves, 3.62) that can win some games for them.

This Team Is Built On:  Hard to say...they really haven't forged a personality yet.  If Osoria  can continue his success and Counsel can start hitting his potential, maybe they'll be the "Attack Of The Killer Lefties" (just checking to see if anyone here is old enough to get the reference to "Attack Of The Killer Tomatoes").

Player to Watch:  Counsel's the most interesting player, but the key guy may be Brian Iorg.  He's been throwing 200 innings (pretty effectively) every year on bad teams, but has good enough stuff to pop out a very good year.

Free Agent Signings
RP Barry Tobin, 3B Charles Forest, SP Elmer O'Brien

Promoted
SP Andre Counsel (Sea 27 #4)

NL South Season 31 Preview

San Juan Padres
bobbyj7
Season 30: 82-80, won Division, lost in first round to Jacksonville

Season 30 In A Nutshell:   Led by LF Aaron Rodney (.314/30/78, 30 SB) and rookie sensation Branden Clarkson (.292/39/137), won their 3rd straight NL South crown.

Who's Out?
FA:  CF Robert Brown (not sure how he got away with those ratings in CF, but he did), 2B Raul Armas,  RP Al Carreras, SP Alejandro Sosa
Released:  RP Hector Aquino

Who's In?
FA:  CF Madison Clayton
Promoted:  SP Daniel Howard (Sea 28 #12), RP Edgar Jiminez (Sea 26 IFA)
Season 31 Preview
The Pads go for contact on offense - 3rd-best BA and 3rd-lowest strikeouts.  They're not a big power-hitting team although the aforementioned Rodney and Clarkson can deliver the longball.  They're very solid defensively, especially on the left side of the infield with Clarkson at 3B and Gold-Glover Orlando Mendoza at SS.  

The starting rotation isn't spectacular, but gets the job done...rookie Nolan Rodgers has the potential to add a little more pizzaz.  San Juan got about 170 innings of excellent relief work from the departed Sosa and Carreras, and will have to find those quality innings somewhere.  Maybe Tapies?  Maybe Cummings?  Maybe they don't get those innings again.

Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  Getting deep into the playoffs.  They made a big jump up to 87 wins last year...there's a bunch of young talent on the ML roster and it's time to make more noise.

To Do That They Have To:  Get either hitting or pitching above "average".  On offense they do everything except hit HR's pretty well (Matty Campos led with 27).  They get on base decently well (2B Raul Armas - .387), make contact (Armas .316, RF Hank Fischer.313), and run some (Armas - 25 SB, 3B Edgmer Hechavarria and LF Aaron Rodney, 25 each).  This is another team that spreads the pitching workload around (8 P's with more than 100 IP but none over 200)...Nolan Rodgers led in both wins (12) and ERA (3.10).

This Team Is Built On:  Lots of players contributing...C  Stephen Long (.403 OBP in 225 AB's) and OF Bip Thornton (13 HR, 40 RBI in 232 AB's) are examples of part-time players who made big contributions.  The mixing and matching of roles extendd to the pitching staff as well:  Magglio Viciedo started 21 games, made 24 relief appearances, won 9 games and saved 6 in 151 innings (3.28 ERA).

Player to Watch: Brandon Clarkson.  Season 27's #10 pick won singlehandedly transform the offense, but he will brig some needed pop to an infield slot.  ROY WATCH

Promoted:
IF Brandon Clarkson 

Santa Fe Fire
raybie2305
Season 30:  69-93

Season 30 In A Nutshell:  Accumulated more talent, watched all those lefty pitching prospects develop, and enjoyed Trace Clark's ROY season.

Who's Out?
nobody important 

Who's In?
inexpensive filler

Season 31 Preview
Another year of bringing the talent along, but next year should start to get interesting.  By then we should see a starting rotation of Juan Martinez, Willie Tepera, Cy Knepper, Willie Matos, and Torey Izquierdo.  Clark, Danys Guerrero and P.T. Feliz will be 25, 26, and 31, respectively.  And they'll probably be able to spend $70MM in free agency if they want to.

I think we'll get a preview this year, with that core group mostly in the majors.  Don't be surprised if they compete this year (and watch for a P.T. Feliz resurgence in his new uber hitter-friendly home park).



Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  Here's a team that led the NL in scoring last year (OK, somewhat park-related), and via trade and draft placed a pair of aces at the top of its rotation this season.  Winning the division might have been shooting too low.  But the team backed off the gas, went cheap, and elected to keep building for this year.  Still, they have some great young talent on the ML roster...maybe enough to win the division.

To Do That They Have To:  Get just a few big seasons from unexpected places.  You know Juan Martinez is going to throw 220 innings with an ERA of 3 or less, and Willie Tepera  looks like he'll be good for 200.  Danys Guerrero will hit; Trace Clark will too, with the occasional lapse against righty pitching. It's thin, but with 4-5 more good seasons sprinkled in they could win 85.

This Team Is Built On:  Martinez, Tepera, Guerrero, Clark, and maybe Cy Knepper andRichie Carr.  Everybody else is just passing through.

Player to Watch:  Trace Clark...can he hit righthanders?

Trades traded ML OF Ken Woods for MiL 1B Yoervis Barrios and MiL C Vern Schofield

Free Agent Signings
1B Ron Casey

Promotions
C Trace Clark (Sea 27 #31), 2B Carlton Nieve (Sea 26 #57), CF R.J. Javier (Sea 23 IFA), SPWillie Tepera (Sea 26 #6)

Charlotte Steam
boconner22
Season 30: 81-81

Season 30 In A Nutshell:  Faded early and traded Kelvim Hasegawa, Lastings Wood and Yovani Crespo to Huntington for Zoltan Keppinger, Rich Kohn and MiL Julian Amaro.

Who's Out?
FA:  1B Tony Jones + 11 others, most of whom didn't sign with anyone
Released:  3B Omer Aviles
Traded:  1B Reynaldo Jose

Who's In?
FA:  9 signees, with P's Ramiro Lira and Jim Hinchliffe carrying the biggest price tags
Trade: RP Richie Carr
Promoted:  3B Enos Garcia (Sea 29 #7)

Season 31 Preview
It's a whole new look for the Steam this year in the aftermath of dealing Hasegawa.  The payoff of that trade - Keppinger and Kohn - are the new starters at SS and C.  The team promoted Season 29's #1, Enos Garcia, a year or 2 early to fill the 3B hole...he may struggle for awhile (both on offense and defense) but will provide some power at minimum cost until he sorts it out.  At the center of the offense, of course, is 1B Yean Carlos Gonzalez, he of last year's MVP and 105 homers in his first 2 seasons.  This should be a pretty prolific offense.

Pitching is the question.  Ramiro Lira (4 different teams since the beginning of Season 30) should steady things at the top of the rotation (with George Camilli), but the rest of the staff is a crap shoot...could be bad, could be good, probably will be some of both.

In a winnable division, Gonzalez & Co could score enough runs for Charlotte to take it.



Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  Winning a fairly winnable division

To Do That They Have To:  Surround Kelvim Hasegawa and Yean Carlos Gonzalez with as much talent as they can muster up.  That's exactly what they've tried to do with a blast of free agent signings.

This Team Is Built On:  Hasegawa and Gonzalez on the offensive side; George Camiliand Juan Veras on the staff.  Camili tossed 268 innings last year, Veras 156.  There's 424 pretty good-quality innings they can count on.  They have to survive the other 1000.  It's too bad Hasegawa's the only player on the team that can run out of sight in a day...if they had any other runners at all they could turn up their SB setting and Hasegawa might get 80 extra basehits + 80 SB's.

Player to Watch:  Hasegawa...whether they challenge for the division or not, he'll be fun. MVP WATCH

Free Agent Signings
1B Tony Jones, SP John Wheat, RP Ivan Belisario, RP Thom Dempster, OF/1B Peter Brumbaugh, IF Jose Fernandez, C Yovani Crespo, SP Juan Veras, C Gary Arnold, SP Rob Morton, CF/2B Madison Clayton, RP Joey Jones, RF Ricky Mercedes, RP Alexei Gardel

Texas Choades
josepaco
Season 30:  69-93

Season 30 In A Nutshell:  This franchise won 88+ games 6 of 7 times from Seasons 21 to 27, then entered the (almost) inevitable decline phase following a long run.  They're still in it, having fully committed neither to rebuilding nor winning.

Who's Out?
FA:  SS Nathan Sierra, plus a bunch of older players, most of whom are headed for retirement
Who's In?
FA:  SP Al Servet
Promoted:  3B Andre Matthews (Sea 27 2nd round), SP Paul Masato (SEA 28 IFA)
Trade:  2B/CF Tarrik Stockton
Season 31 Preview
Texas gets credit for trying to institute a youth movement, with 9 players 25 or under on the Big League roster.  The problem is none of them are particularly good (I don't know...maybe Paul Masato surprises, but his control and sub-50 pitches will catch up to him sooner or later).  

Bob Tucker (362 HR's, and 117 in last 2 seasons) remains one of Hobbs' premier sluggers, but the Choades aren't getting close to winning an easy division even when he hits 60 bombs.  I'd love to see them trade Tucker for a couple of prime young MLers (like Charlotte did for Hasegawa) or prospects, and get what they can for Shigetoshi and other vets as well.

Meanwhile, this will be another long season.  Enjoy those long bombs from Tucker...he'll hit enough of them to get them 60-something wins again (and surpass 400 for his career).



Last Year's Preview:______________________________________________________________
"Breakthrough" Means:  2nd-year GM josepaco faces a dilemma:  go all-out to win now (in a division without a dominant team), taking advantage of the prime years of 1B Bob Tucker, or try to build fast enough to contend soon, which might mean trading Tucker.  To add to the dilemma, San Juan and Louisville both have more guns in the arsenal this year, and Santa Fe has a big head start on rebuilding.  For now, they've turned over about half the roster via free agency and promotions, so their breakthrough has to be winning the division.

To Do That They Have To:  get some surprise big seasons.  Who knows where they could come from?  Maybe Donnie K'aaihue can hit 50 HR's and on-base .325 (his best to date is .302).  Maybe Aramis Romo can get you 18 wins and a 3.50 ERA.  Maybe someone like Horacio Alou can reach back for 1 more .800+ OPS season.  All those things are possible, but unlikely...when 88 wins depends on 8 of them happening, well.

This Team Is Built On:  Bob Tucker.  Season 21's #1 overall pick has been nothing short of spectacular in his first 6 ML seasons, slamming 301 bombs and getting on base at a .400 clip.

Player to Watch:  Tucker.  Won his first MVP last year and wouldn't be a bad bet for this year.   MVP WATCH

Free Ageny Signings
3B Donnie K'aaihue, RP Irv Porter, SP Max Hill, C Wladimir Vizcaino, SP Wellington Cortes, RP Roy O'Donnell, RP Oswaldo Vizquel, RP Rob Ruebel

Promoted
SS Adrian Baumann, LF Dave Rowe, RP Albert Chavez, RP Dave Gutierrez

Division Outlook
A 4-way scramble isn't out of the question, but ultimately I expect San Juan and Louisville to pull away and tussle for the division.  The Fire have some great talent but are too thin, and the Choades are relying on too many great breaks to win a 162-game marathon.

Louisville        89-63
San Juan        85-67
Santa Fe         80-82
Texas              75-87