(UCK) - uncommon knowledge
(ST) - strategy tip
(UCK) - You can sign a coach in the second last cycle to a level lower than he currently is asking for or a lower position that he is looking for. Sometime they will even take less money than what they are requesting.
(ST) - (budgeting/financial management) - Starting pitching and power are the 2 commodities that are the hardest to trade for, so in a sense are the most "overvalued". If you're comfortable doing a lot of trading, you can probably gain value by drafting SP's and power hitters with your first few picks and then trading them later to fill ML gaps. Likewise, age 30+ power hitters are almost always the worst free-agent values. Their power is already in decline but they still get 5 years, $60MM.
(ST) - (coaches) every now and then you can snag a Fielding Coach who's "hiding" among the ML Bench Coaches.
(ST) - In a different world I did experiment after reading a blog about putting a DH type fielder in RF. I found that since he was such a good hitter and there was such a low number of plays in RF that it did work in my favor as a way for a NL team to utilize that type of player.
(ST) - Man, as time goes on, I know less and less about this game. One of my strategies that has worked over the years a little is to have starters with high control and high velocity and worry less about splits than some teams. High control will reduce walks and high velocity will increase strikeouts. Balls in play will be reduced to allow my relatively low splits to be less of a disadvantage. I sort of do the same thing on the offensive side with power and eye. When I have a decent team, I really try to focus on having two really good starting pitchers that allow me to pitch only three starters in the playoffs. I've only won two world series and both were won because I had a couple of great starters carry me through the playoffs. Also, I basically don't let my players steal bases. Earl Weaver style.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Sunday, March 20, 2016
More Uncommon Knowledge and Tips
(NCK) = not common knowledge
(ST) = strategy tip
(NCK) - this one is truly obscure and courtesy of Iain: You can arbitrate a player and sign him to a long-term contract at the same time. Open 2 tabs, go to the arbitration screen in both. Use the first screen to take him to arbitration. Use the second screen to sign him long-term. See transactions for Geoffrey Carter.
(NCK) - I think it's common knowledge, but what took me many seasons to understand is to limit your ML players playing time during spring training. I can't tell you how many times I wore players out but playing them full time during spring training.
(ST) - IMO, defense is generally underrated. You can get pretty good results with a really good defense team, even if the other areas aren't too hot, and you can generally get good defense cheaper than good hitting.
(ST) - Spring training: I start my MLB line up the first 3 or 4 games in preseason. This gives them about 20-25 at bats. I then rotate my prospects in until the final 2 games. I then reinsert the MLB lineup over the last two games. I always seem to get off to a good start in the regular season. This season the Ellis D's started 5-1 and had dreams of a playoff run. Since then the team has fallen on hard times. I remember reading somewhere that players will be rusty if not used in the preseason.
(ST) - I think for me it is important to manage the minor leagues. By looking at players you get to know what's coming and where there is value. You also learn to read development thus freeing up advanced scouting money. I rank all my players and revisit it at the all star break and beginning of the year. It allows you to learn what was right and where you erred.
(ST) - I try to make it a rule to have no less than 7 (NL) or 8 (AL) decent hitters in my lineups. The one exception is usually a defense-proficient SS. SS gets so many more chances (usually) than every other position (2B is close sometimes) that it makes sense to sacrifice some offense there. I almost always favor hitting catchers over defensive catchers. 2B is an odd position defensively - SIM doesn't seem to punish lower-than-recommended range and glove ratings with poor plays and errors as much as it does other positions. Maybe it's because 2B's are not as subject to throwing errors as other positions...I don't know. After SS, the position I'll sacrifice some offense at is CF. Not because I want to, it's just hard to find CF's that can hit much. To me, CF seems to be overrated as a defensive contributor...CF's get far fewer chances than SS, 2B and even 3B.
(ST) = strategy tip
(NCK) - this one is truly obscure and courtesy of Iain: You can arbitrate a player and sign him to a long-term contract at the same time. Open 2 tabs, go to the arbitration screen in both. Use the first screen to take him to arbitration. Use the second screen to sign him long-term. See transactions for Geoffrey Carter.
(NCK) - I think it's common knowledge, but what took me many seasons to understand is to limit your ML players playing time during spring training. I can't tell you how many times I wore players out but playing them full time during spring training.
(ST) - IMO, defense is generally underrated. You can get pretty good results with a really good defense team, even if the other areas aren't too hot, and you can generally get good defense cheaper than good hitting.
(ST) - Spring training: I start my MLB line up the first 3 or 4 games in preseason. This gives them about 20-25 at bats. I then rotate my prospects in until the final 2 games. I then reinsert the MLB lineup over the last two games. I always seem to get off to a good start in the regular season. This season the Ellis D's started 5-1 and had dreams of a playoff run. Since then the team has fallen on hard times. I remember reading somewhere that players will be rusty if not used in the preseason.
(ST) - I think for me it is important to manage the minor leagues. By looking at players you get to know what's coming and where there is value. You also learn to read development thus freeing up advanced scouting money. I rank all my players and revisit it at the all star break and beginning of the year. It allows you to learn what was right and where you erred.
(ST) - I try to make it a rule to have no less than 7 (NL) or 8 (AL) decent hitters in my lineups. The one exception is usually a defense-proficient SS. SS gets so many more chances (usually) than every other position (2B is close sometimes) that it makes sense to sacrifice some offense there. I almost always favor hitting catchers over defensive catchers. 2B is an odd position defensively - SIM doesn't seem to punish lower-than-recommended range and glove ratings with poor plays and errors as much as it does other positions. Maybe it's because 2B's are not as subject to throwing errors as other positions...I don't know. After SS, the position I'll sacrifice some offense at is CF. Not because I want to, it's just hard to find CF's that can hit much. To me, CF seems to be overrated as a defensive contributor...CF's get far fewer chances than SS, 2B and even 3B.
The whenever I get to it power rankings are out!
| Team | Record | Score | Comment |
| Huntington | 38-10 | 1.71 |
38-10?! Wow, just wow! Clearly the best so far.
|
| Jacksonville | 34-14 | 1.76 |
#1 in runs scored and runs prevented in the NL, but Huntington
|
| New Orleans | 31-18 | 3.71 |
As predicted, New Orleans has arrived!
|
| Dover | 30-18 | 4.47 |
The defending NL champ is the only threat to JAX on paper.
|
| Las Vegas | 28-20 | 5.00 |
Top of the next tier, but history says they will get back into the elite.
|
| Salem | 25-23 | 10.50 |
Record doesn't show it, but every underlying number says they'll improve.
|
| Chicago | 28-21 | 10.97 |
Much better than expected.
|
| San Juan | 27-22 | 11.21 |
Off to a really nice to start.
|
| Philadelphia | 26-23 | 11.56 |
Expected WP says they should be better.
|
| Santa Cruz | 28-21 | 12.15 |
Also much better than expected
|
| San Francisco | 27-21 | 12.50 |
Also, also much better than expected
|
| Scottsdale | 26-23 | 12.74 |
Morales is carrying the team so far (23 extra base hits). If Herzog gets going watch out!
|
| Jackson | 25-23 | 13.09 |
Should be a top 10 team.
|
| Vancouver | 24-24 | 13.79 |
A .500 start, but only 1.5 back
|
| Chicago | 27-22 | 14.26 |
Playing a little above their head, but good for them.
|
| Kansas City | 23-26 | 14.29 |
Disappointing start.
|
| Santa Fe | 27-21 | 14.38 |
Winning the division and the best preforming minors in Hobbs.
|
| Scranton | 24-24 | 16.26 |
Not where we are used to seeing them
|
| Buffalo | 24-25 | 16.35 |
Now that their roster is full I can say that I think they will get back
over .500
|
| Florida | 23-25 | 19.24 |
101 million is a lot to pay for a losing record.
|
| Indianapolis | 23-26 | 20.53 |
Started from the Middle
|
| New York | 23-26 | 21.00 |
Probably not where they want to be, but you can see the vision.
|
| Nashville | 19-30 | 22.50 |
I can't explain it. This team has
a top half roster.
|
| Baltimore | 22-27 | 23.35 |
Checks in regularly, but AI has been running the team since leap day.
|
| Ellis D's | 19-29 | 25.68 |
It's not about overalls, but winning with no one over 74 is tough.
|
| Burlington | 18-30 | 26.38 |
6-14 at home and already 20 back.
Time to trade the MVP?
|
| Louisville | 17-32 | 26.79 |
Tanking or really bad at HBD because this team has talent.
|
| Salt Lake City | 19-30 | 27.21 |
Also checks in regularly, but AI has been running them since 12/1.
|
| Boise | 19-29 | 28.03 |
Bad, but better than expected.
|
| San Diego | 18-30 | 28.15 |
Up and down team is down again.
|
| Texas | 17-31 | 28.71 |
Really struggling
|
| Cheyenne | 17-32 | 29.74 |
Really, really struggling
|
Saturday, March 19, 2016
One Thing You Know About HBD That's Not Common Knowledge, OR, 1 Of Your Strategy Tips You'd Be Willing To Share
(NCK) = Not Common Knowledge
(ST) = Strategy Tip
(NCK) A and B designation for free agents goes off the day that the draft prospect list shows up so you can sign them without losing a draft pick.
(ST) I think base-running is a vastly undervalued skill. If I can manage it, I like to have a 14th position player who I use strictly as a pinch-runner and late-inning defensive replacement (usually a 2B/CF). I can usually directly attribute 2-3 wins a season to pinch-runners who steal a base late in the game and score the game-winner on a single. These guys are generally plentiful enough and not valued highly enough that you can fill up your minors with them and always have 1 at minimum salary on your ML roster.
(NCK) Free agents all drop their contract demands to 1 year on the 3PM cycle after the 8th game of Spring Training; they also start losing rating points after that cycle (although they're fractional and might not even show up on the next "ratings event").
(ST) I think starting pitchers are a bargain compared to relievers in the salaries they ask for when negotiating contracts with the teams that control them. When they hit the open market, I think that's reversed - relievers go for lower $ per inning pitched than SP's of comparable quality. I think this is provable (I'm not going to bother trying). It suggests a strategy of drafting SP's but getting your RP's in free agency.
(NCK) The only time players are not subject to the demotion penalty is preseason (not exactly true - when an injured player is brought off the dl, the player demoted to make room isn't subject to demotion penalties) - from the cycle after budgets are set to roster freeze day. After that, the season has started and you risk a penalty when you demote. There is a common misperception that demotion penalties are not in effect once ML playoffs have started. I assure you from personal experience that demotion penalties DO apply during the playoffs.
(ST) If you look at all the ways to acquire players - draft, trade, FA, IFA - it seems like the most consistent bargains are always the age 35+ pitchers taken on the 4th day of free agency or later.
(NCK) Unless specifically demanded by the player, no-trade clauses do not add any value whatsoever to the Max Contract offer ($10MM bonus + $20MM salary x 5).
(ST) There was a hint during the latest update and subsequent developer chat that development for both position players and pitching prospects may be impacted more by games played than ABs or IPs. I am trying to set my better prospects to still get around the same numbers of ABs and IPs, while maximizing games played. For pitchers, that means setting lower pitch counts so they can go more often, which is easy. Position players are more complicated. They can be set to be half a platoon with rest/def/PH settings trying to get them in as many games as possible, or play every day, but with other players rest/def settings set up to spell the prize prospects. This is, of course a lot of extra fiddling that may mean no gain, but it is something to think about.
(NCK) Players involved in trades that complete within 24 hours of the roster freeze are not exposed to the Rule 5. If a trade completes more than 24 hours before the roster freeze, the players can be eligible for the Rule V.
(ST) (time management) I try to absolutely minimize time spent on minor league stuff. I make sure each level has 13-14 position players and 14 pitchers. Then I set SIM to manage everything...DL moves, the works. The only thing I check is whether my prospects are actually playing. Sometimes I can go through a whole season without checking minors.
(NCK) If a player is selected in the Rule V Draft, any outstanding trade offer involving the player is automatically canceled. If the drafted player is on the waiver wire, any pending claims are canceled and the player is also removed from the waiver wire. Rule V trumps trades and waiver claims.
(ST) The key to winning WS is to know exactly when you want to be good. You want to time your prospects to arrive at (roughly the same time). The reason for this is because we all only have 185 mil to work with. The more solid (and above) ML production you can get for $343,000, the more money you have to spend on the players you will have to buy. Its almost hard to overestimate how much more valuable a guy with 900 OPS is making the minimum then the same guy making $5.6MM.
(NCK) I am not sure any of my strategies are not common knowledge or not. lol :-) Is it common knowledge that free agents will agree to shorter contract lengths in the FA period, but they will not accept less than their asking price?
(ST) You cannot pay enough for greatness. We all only have 8/9 spots in the batting order and 4/5 spots in the rotation. If you can get a guy 1000+ OPS or a 2.50 ERA you almost cannot overpay. Because you have so few spots in the rotation or batting order to "play" with its really hard to find those extra runs somewhere else.
(NCK) Near the end of coach hiring, ML coaches will accept offers of 50% of their demands.
(ST) If you can get greatness you do it, but if you can't, you worry about the bottom of your line up more than the top of it. Going from a good lead off man to a great one might mean 80 runs created to 100 runs created. Going from a no-hit SS to a some-hit SS of the same defense might mean going from 20 runs created to 60. The returns on your investment for taking care of the worst is more than the best unless they are truly great.
(NCK) All 100% rested pitchers are not the same. Take two pitchers assuming near identical stamina/durability ratings and zone in on 'Current/Next Day' rest rating on your Pitching roster. Player A: 60%current(red)/100%next day; Player B: 80%current(blue)/100%next day. If Player A pitches the next day at 100% rest, they will take a bigger Rest ratings hit and subsequently take longer to recover then Player B, who is also at 100% rest. Go figure.
(ST) Offense begets more offense, but great pitching negates the need for more great pitching. Every hit, every walk gets you deeper in the guys PC lowering his effectiveness and then eventually deeper into his bullpen. Scoring runs increases the chance you will score more runs. On the other hand when a start gets you 8.1IP 4H 1R 1ER 2W 7K there are only 2 outs left for your bullpen. The better pitching you get, the less other pitching you actually need.
(NCK) The "non-trainable" player traits (range, arm strength, durability, health, speed, patience, temper, makeup, power, stamina, velocity) only improve over the offseason, and don't start improving until the player's second offseason (always wondered about the logic behind those traits not improving after the player's first pro season).
Thursday, March 17, 2016
12 First-Quarter Surprises
Well, the amateur draftees are up, so that means we're a quarter into our new season. As always, there are big surprises around the league...here are 12 of the biggest:
#1 - Chicago Capone's: projected to be a 78-win (.481) also ran by Top's spreadsheet, the Capones have ridden a blistering offense (224 runs - 2nd in AL) to a 25-17 (.595) start. Free agent pickup Vladimir Henriquez has been a rock, hitting .285 and leading the team with 15 HR and 43 RBI; and RF Addison Oropesa has himself in the middle of the ROY race with a .316/8/24 line.
#2 - Salt Lake City managing to play .420 ball with 20 on the ML roster and no catchers. It's impressive, but palet, come on.
#3 - Santa Fe leading the NL South with a $19.9 MM payroll and their best pitcher (Juan Martinez) posting a 5.13 ERA. We knew there was young talent here, but their rookie brigade of Trace Clark (.345/13/40), Carlton Nieve (.292/11/26) and Willie Tepera (4-0, 2.82 ERA) has come through with flying colors. Plus, 3B Miguel Polonia is OPSing a full 200 points above his career average (.956 vs. .755).
#4 - Kansas City limping along at 18-24. Both dakar's preview and top's ss saw them winning 101. Certainly not too late to turn it around. The hitting's been good enough with 200 runs scored (5th), but their pitching has fallen off a cliff with a 4.54 ERA (13th).
#5 - Boise's Jordany Ontiveros leading the AL with 18 jacks. Guys like Ontiveros rarely have extended runs of success. Enjoy the streak.
#6 - The NY Sewer Gators pitching leading the NL with a 3.56 ERA. We expected Joe Johnson to be good (and he has been: 3-2, 2.09). And Don Bagley, Dillon Mays and Ramiro Lira are all bettering their career ERA marks by .77 runs per game or better. Nice. Now, about those 137 runs scored.
#7 - Louisville firing blanks at 15-27 (.357). Both the preview and top's ss saw around 88-89 wins. What's up? Hasegawa started slowly but has since picked his OPS up to .878, and Gonzalez picked up where he left off last year with .307/18/39. But the 5.75 team ERA tops only lowly Salt Lake.
#8 - Santa Cruz pushing Vegas in the AL West at 23-19 (.548) while allowing more runs (180) than they've scored (172). So they've been a little lucky. One would expect a pretty good record in 1-run games, but in that regard they've actually been unlucky (6-7).
#9 - Florida's CF Terry Sears among the AL OPS leaders at .967 (career .740).
#10 - San Francisco leading the NL West at 25-17 (.595). Not a huge surprise, as top's ss and the preview could both see a lot of improvement. And they certainly haven't put away the competition - Scottsdale and Salem are both right on their heels in what promises to be an interesting race. 1B Harvey Tracy's 1.093-OPS start (in San Fran) may be more impressive than Trace Clark's 1.227 (in Santa Fe).
#11 - Strange relief-dominant pitching strategies pacing the AL charts. Huntington (2.76 ERA - 1st) has used relievers (Roger Harvey and Mark Martin) to start almost half their games, and New Orleans (3.27 ERA - 2nd) has used Jack Allensworth and 2 journeymen SP's to go 3 innings and finished with their talented 'pen in almost all theirs.
#12 - Huntington's Roger Harvey. Last 5 seasons' ERA's: 5.40, 5.62, 4.31, 5.34, and 4.70. This year: 0.72, with a ridiculous under-.400 OPS-against.
#1 - Chicago Capone's: projected to be a 78-win (.481) also ran by Top's spreadsheet, the Capones have ridden a blistering offense (224 runs - 2nd in AL) to a 25-17 (.595) start. Free agent pickup Vladimir Henriquez has been a rock, hitting .285 and leading the team with 15 HR and 43 RBI; and RF Addison Oropesa has himself in the middle of the ROY race with a .316/8/24 line.
#2 - Salt Lake City managing to play .420 ball with 20 on the ML roster and no catchers. It's impressive, but palet, come on.
#3 - Santa Fe leading the NL South with a $19.9 MM payroll and their best pitcher (Juan Martinez) posting a 5.13 ERA. We knew there was young talent here, but their rookie brigade of Trace Clark (.345/13/40), Carlton Nieve (.292/11/26) and Willie Tepera (4-0, 2.82 ERA) has come through with flying colors. Plus, 3B Miguel Polonia is OPSing a full 200 points above his career average (.956 vs. .755).
#4 - Kansas City limping along at 18-24. Both dakar's preview and top's ss saw them winning 101. Certainly not too late to turn it around. The hitting's been good enough with 200 runs scored (5th), but their pitching has fallen off a cliff with a 4.54 ERA (13th).
#5 - Boise's Jordany Ontiveros leading the AL with 18 jacks. Guys like Ontiveros rarely have extended runs of success. Enjoy the streak.
#6 - The NY Sewer Gators pitching leading the NL with a 3.56 ERA. We expected Joe Johnson to be good (and he has been: 3-2, 2.09). And Don Bagley, Dillon Mays and Ramiro Lira are all bettering their career ERA marks by .77 runs per game or better. Nice. Now, about those 137 runs scored.
#7 - Louisville firing blanks at 15-27 (.357). Both the preview and top's ss saw around 88-89 wins. What's up? Hasegawa started slowly but has since picked his OPS up to .878, and Gonzalez picked up where he left off last year with .307/18/39. But the 5.75 team ERA tops only lowly Salt Lake.
#8 - Santa Cruz pushing Vegas in the AL West at 23-19 (.548) while allowing more runs (180) than they've scored (172). So they've been a little lucky. One would expect a pretty good record in 1-run games, but in that regard they've actually been unlucky (6-7).
#9 - Florida's CF Terry Sears among the AL OPS leaders at .967 (career .740).
#10 - San Francisco leading the NL West at 25-17 (.595). Not a huge surprise, as top's ss and the preview could both see a lot of improvement. And they certainly haven't put away the competition - Scottsdale and Salem are both right on their heels in what promises to be an interesting race. 1B Harvey Tracy's 1.093-OPS start (in San Fran) may be more impressive than Trace Clark's 1.227 (in Santa Fe).
#11 - Strange relief-dominant pitching strategies pacing the AL charts. Huntington (2.76 ERA - 1st) has used relievers (Roger Harvey and Mark Martin) to start almost half their games, and New Orleans (3.27 ERA - 2nd) has used Jack Allensworth and 2 journeymen SP's to go 3 innings and finished with their talented 'pen in almost all theirs.
#12 - Huntington's Roger Harvey. Last 5 seasons' ERA's: 5.40, 5.62, 4.31, 5.34, and 4.70. This year: 0.72, with a ridiculous under-.400 OPS-against.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Seasonal Previews: A Post-Mortem
Quick and dirty comparison here between the divisional previews and Top's power rankings. A * indicates teams that did not have enough players on the ML roster for an accurate prediction at the time Top ran his SS
NL North:
Preview Top Difference
*Buffalo 91-71 75-87 16
Scranton 84-79 82-80 2
Chicago 81-81 78-84 3
Pittsburgh 70-92 60-102 10
NL South:
Preview Top Difference
Louisville 89-63 88-74 1
San Juan 85-67 78-84 7
*Santa Fe 80-82 57-105 23
Texas 75-87 65-97 10
NL East:
Note, records were not predicted in the divisional preview.
Preview Top Difference
Jacksonville 108-54 ?
Dover 92-70 ?
New York ~80 wins 77-85 3
Baltimore <70 wins 71-91 1
NL West:
Preview Top Difference
Salem 86-76 96-66 10
Scottsdale 84-78 88-74 4
San Fran 80-82 76-86 4
Salt Lake 65-95 68-94 3
AL East:
Note, records were not predicted in the divisional preview. Numbers here are based on the vague estimates given.
Preview Top Difference
Huntington 100+ wins 98-64 2
Burlington ~80 wins 80-82 0
Chicago ? wins 79-83 ?
Indianapolis 75 wins 82-80 7
AL West:
Preview Top Difference
Las Vegas 105-57 107-55 2
Santa Cruz 78-84 73-89 5
Cheyenne 77-85 72-90 5
San Diego 70-92 67-95 3
AL North:
Preview Top Difference
Kansas City 101-61 101-61 0
Vancouver 86-76 88-74 2
Philadelphia 80-82 85-77 5
Boise 60-102 56-106 4
AL South:
Preview Top Difference
New Orleans 95-67 97-65 2
Jackson 94-68 89-73 5
Nashville 89-73 80-82 9
Florida 77-85 78-84 1
Biggest discrepancies are Buffalo and Santa Fe due to incomplete data for Top's spreadsheet. Suffice to say, both will be closer to the divisional previews. Aside from that, there were three teams with a 10 win spread and one team with a 9 win spread. Both Texas and Pittsburgh had predictions differ by 10 wins, but both previews see them as clearly below average teams, so not much of a practical difference. The two interesting outliers are Nashville and Salem. Depending on which you believe, Nashville is either a Wild Card team or a sub .500 team and Salem is either fighting for a playoff spot or a 96 win clear Divisional winner.
NL North:
Preview Top Difference
*Buffalo 91-71 75-87 16
Scranton 84-79 82-80 2
Chicago 81-81 78-84 3
Pittsburgh 70-92 60-102 10
NL South:
Preview Top Difference
Louisville 89-63 88-74 1
San Juan 85-67 78-84 7
*Santa Fe 80-82 57-105 23
Texas 75-87 65-97 10
NL East:
Note, records were not predicted in the divisional preview.
Preview Top Difference
Jacksonville 108-54 ?
Dover 92-70 ?
New York ~80 wins 77-85 3
Baltimore <70 wins 71-91 1
NL West:
Preview Top Difference
Salem 86-76 96-66 10
Scottsdale 84-78 88-74 4
San Fran 80-82 76-86 4
Salt Lake 65-95 68-94 3
AL East:
Note, records were not predicted in the divisional preview. Numbers here are based on the vague estimates given.
Preview Top Difference
Huntington 100+ wins 98-64 2
Burlington ~80 wins 80-82 0
Chicago ? wins 79-83 ?
Indianapolis 75 wins 82-80 7
AL West:
Preview Top Difference
Las Vegas 105-57 107-55 2
Santa Cruz 78-84 73-89 5
Cheyenne 77-85 72-90 5
San Diego 70-92 67-95 3
AL North:
Preview Top Difference
Kansas City 101-61 101-61 0
Vancouver 86-76 88-74 2
Philadelphia 80-82 85-77 5
Boise 60-102 56-106 4
AL South:
Preview Top Difference
New Orleans 95-67 97-65 2
Jackson 94-68 89-73 5
Nashville 89-73 80-82 9
Florida 77-85 78-84 1
Biggest discrepancies are Buffalo and Santa Fe due to incomplete data for Top's spreadsheet. Suffice to say, both will be closer to the divisional previews. Aside from that, there were three teams with a 10 win spread and one team with a 9 win spread. Both Texas and Pittsburgh had predictions differ by 10 wins, but both previews see them as clearly below average teams, so not much of a practical difference. The two interesting outliers are Nashville and Salem. Depending on which you believe, Nashville is either a Wild Card team or a sub .500 team and Salem is either fighting for a playoff spot or a 96 win clear Divisional winner.
NL North Season 30 Preview
cretins
Season 29: 90--72, won Division, reached NLDS & lost to Scranton
"Breakthrough" Means: A deep run in the playoffs. After a long stint of wandering through the wilderness, cretins finally regained the top spot in the division that used to feel like his own reserved parking space.
To Do That They Have To: Tighten up the defense. The hitting and pitching were both in the top 5 or 6 in most important categories, and the fielding percentage was about average, but their 74 minus plays easily led the league.
This Team Is Built On: As befits a team in Wrigley, it is hitters first and foremost. After 3 seasons of mediocrity, 1B David James regained his MVP caliber bat. He is supported by C Pribanic who should be a fine top of the order hitter, Adrian Hendrickson who needs to move to a corner OF spot after a wretched season at 2B and CF. SS Allie Cepeda is another guy whose glove demands a move off of SS, but there is no one else much better. Rookies to keep an eye on: 3B Michel Fontana and RF Dernell Yearwood. The Johnson/Goya trade shows that the team still is not as good as it will be. Pitching-wise, they are led by Yamil Duran, Shannon Rivera, Cliff Floyd, Cristian Remlinger, Corey Booker and Peter Sonnanstine.
Player to Watch: First baseman James to see if he can be the hitter who posted a 1.071 OPS again or regresses to the season 28 version who had a .767 OPS. The other player to watch is Goya should he make the show. His bat would play right now.
Trades traded ML CF Harry Johnson, ML OF Ernest Stynes, ML RP Louie Lee and MiL P Emil Ontiveros for MiL OF Yoslan Goya and MiL SP Darwin Thornburg
traded Mil RP Wil Gray for ML RP Jayson Faulkner
Free Agent Signings
SP Damaso Vazquez, C Phillip Pribanic
jdrake27
Season 29: 88-74, Wild Card, got to NLCS and lost to Dover
"Breakthrough" Means: Retaking the division and a good playoff run.
To Do That They Have To: First off overtake Chicago, then hold off Buffalo.
This Team Is Built On: Another of those great balance teams last year, generally top 3-4 in offense and pitching with a solid D, but a somewhat odd combination of 85 + plays (2nd best to the crazy good NY defense) and 40 - plays (mediocre.) Offensively, they lost some big bats in FA: Gary Person, Lewis Gilkey, Vladimir Henriquez and Wilkin Guerrero. They still have a lot left though in Pedro Ortiz, Josh Garcia, Eduardo Franco, and also Yoshinori Kyong, who has the most interesting batting ratings I've ever seen and looks to be very streaky. Newcomer Weinhardt will have a lot of slack to pick up, while SS Maeda is a defensive specialist. There is not much help in the minors, but 2nd year man Kelvim Song should be in for a lot more playing time to show his massive home run swing (that also has massive holes.) They do return their entire rotation led by Dustin McGee and Ivan Amezaga. Their bullpen wasn't too good last year, but they do return Parker Walker who was the best of the bunch and the addition of Whitehill will help. So the pitching should be as good or slightly better, The defense looks improved, but the hitting should drop to mid pack.
Player to Watch: SP Almezaga has much better stuff than his numbers showed last season.
Free Agent SigningsRP Ken Whitehill, 3B Mike Weinhardt, SS Don Maeda, SP J.R. Blackley, SP Ned Shields
cyben5150
Season 29: 83-79
"Breakthrough" Means: Getting back to winning the division.
To Do That They Have To: Hope that some of the young studs are ready to contribute now and that the younger players already on the roster are ready to step up.
This Team Is Built On: Youth sums it up nicely. Credit cyben with amassing some fine talent while still being very competitive since his first season. As low as his payroll is, he could have gone hard after some big FAs, but is instead still going with prospect acquisition while still winning. This team is set up for some serious success for several years to come.
Their offense is highlighted by 3B Cristobal Morales, sophomore SS Esmailyn Reynoso, 2B Charlie Moreno, 1B D.J. Randall and C John Harper. Key potential callups are LF Carlos Valdivia and SS Jair Costilla. The rotation headliners are Sam Gentry, Robinzon Mejias and Steve Davis. Relievers Glenn Coste and Dioner Duran are the main guys in the pen. With only Buddy Wells as immediate help on the horizon, a key FA might have been worth considering here.
Player to Watch: SS Reynoso just scratched the surface of his capabilities last season. While his glove would play better at 2B, his bat will be great for a MI. Both Valdivia and Costilla in AAA will be monsters, but Costilla projects as an even worse fielder than Reynoso, and Valdivia is still just 20.
rigbystarr
Season 29: 62-100
"Breakthrough" Means: Get over the 70 win mark and start moving to respectability. This was a dumpster fire of a franchise when rigby took over, and is making strides in that direction.
To Do That They Have To: Well, there is room for improvement everywhere. This was statistically a bottom three team in most categories. Happily, it looks like they have made some smart moves to upgrade several positions while not breaking the bank.
This Team Is Built On: Treading water until the kids start arriving. Luckily the first life vest is floating close by. Dan Keller is a AAA pitcher that may be ready to move up. If he can crack the ML rotation, he will join Brandon Hoyt, Horacio Moya and FA acquisition Daniels to make a pretty decent top 4, which will likely be the team's strength. Willy Hardy is the most likely bullpen player to be anointed as the closer. RF J.O. Albuquerque and CF Torey Bournigal are probably the best holdover hittters, but look for Bournigal to be moved out of center to make room for newly acquired Alex Prieto, who was the steal of the Rule V draft.
Player to Watch: Prieto is going to be an intriguing player to watch. If his health holds, his only liability is lack of power.
Free Agent Signings
3B Joe Dipoto, SP Louie Daniels, IF/CF David Chang, C Albert Benitez
So who win this division already? Look for the Buffalo (is that a herd of Buffalo?) team to make the jump from third to first, with both Scranton and Chicago falling back a little and Pittsburgh improved, but still lagging well behind.
Buffalo 91-71
Scranton 84-79
Chicago 81-81
Pittsburgh 70-92
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