Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Seasonal Previews: A Post-Mortem

Quick and dirty comparison here between the divisional previews and Top's power rankings.  A * indicates teams that did not have enough players on the ML roster for an accurate prediction at the time Top ran his SS

NL North:
                   Preview    Top         Difference
*Buffalo       91-71        75-87      16
Scranton     84-79        82-80       2
Chicago      81-81        78-84       3
Pittsburgh   70-92        60-102     10


NL South:
                    Preview      Top         Difference
Louisville      89-63          88-74      1
San Juan      85-67         78-84       7
*Santa Fe     80-82         57-105     23
Texas           75-87         65-97       10

NL East:
Note, records were not predicted in the divisional preview.
                          Preview      Top        Difference
Jacksonville      108-54          ?
Dover                92-70           ?
New York         ~80 wins       77-85        3
Baltimore         <70 wins       71-91        1

NL West:
                     Preview        Top            Difference
Salem           86-76            96-66        10
Scottsdale     84-78            88-74        4
San Fran       80-82            76-86        4
Salt Lake      65-95            68-94        3

AL East:
Note, records were not predicted in the divisional preview.  Numbers here are based on the vague estimates given.
                     Preview       Top        Difference
Huntington    100+ wins    98-64      2
Burlington     ~80 wins      80-82      0
Chicago         ? wins        79-83       ?
Indianapolis   75 wins       82-80       7


AL West:
                       Preview       Top         Difference
Las Vegas       105-57        107-55      2
Santa Cruz      78-84          73-89       5
Cheyenne        77-85          72-90       5
San Diego       70-92          67-95       3

AL North:
                        Preview      Top           Difference
Kansas City     101-61        101-61       0
Vancouver        86-76          88-74        2
Philadelphia     80-82          85-77        5
Boise              60-102         56-106      4

AL South:
                      Preview      Top          Difference
New Orleans   95-67          97-65       2
Jackson         94-68          89-73       5
Nashville        89-73          80-82       9
Florida           77-85          78-84       1

Biggest discrepancies are Buffalo and Santa Fe due to incomplete data for Top's spreadsheet.  Suffice to say, both will be closer to the divisional previews.  Aside from that, there were three teams with a 10 win spread and one team with a 9 win spread.  Both Texas and Pittsburgh had predictions differ by 10 wins, but both previews see them as clearly below average teams, so not much of a practical difference.  The two interesting outliers are Nashville and Salem.  Depending on which you believe, Nashville is either a Wild Card team or a sub .500 team and Salem is either fighting for a playoff spot or a 96 win clear Divisional winner.

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