Monday, March 12, 2018

Case Study: How Do I Rebuild This Team When The Time Comes?

The recent WC commentary on top's rebuilding effort got me thinking about how I'll rebuild the Diablos.

Here are the relevant (I think) details of the current state of my team:

***  This year's total (incl MiL) payroll is at $146MM;

***  I already have committed every last dollar of next year's $115.2MM cap;

***  I have absolutely no prospects in the minor leagues;

***  I have $0 in all scouting categories;

***  The things other than payroll I spend $$ on are coaching salaries ($7MM), prospect payroll ($6MM), training ($20MM) and medical ($8MM).

***  I should be able to keep the core of the team (Polonia, Suzuki, Kawasaki, Green, Merced, Stock, Duran) together for another 3 years or so.  The big loss will be Season 43 when Merced goes free agent.

***  This was probably the last year I could fill in around the core with retail-priced free agents (like Dawkins, Valbuena, Thomas, Zurburan), and I had to do some heavy back-loading on obviously declining players to manage that (not a recipe for LT success clearly)

***  Next year, and in future  years, I'll have to rely more and more on bargain-basement FA's to fill in around the core...and even moreso if I want to start building up my scouting again.

*** Clearly I can keep contending for awhile, probably not at the 105-112 win level, but 90 wins seems very doable for awhile.

***   I'd REALLY like to avoid the "drive it off the cliff and then spend 7 seasons in all-out rebuild at 60 wins" plan.  Been there, done that and it's boring.

How do I manage the transition so that I rebuild while at least staying in marginal contention?

Do I just start adding $$ back to my scouting categories next season and live with even more bargain-bin FA's?

Do I start trading off some of my aging-but-still-valuable players to try to get some prospects into the pipeline?

I guess the way I'm looking at it is this:  between Merced, Stock and Duran I have about 500 innings of ace-caliber pitching per season, the equivalent of 2 SP aces.  Even if I could squeeze into the playoffs with 85-90 wins, that trio has a chance to dominate 3 out of 5 games, or 4-4.5 out of 7 games.  We've all certainly seen more than a few WS won in that fashion.

Appreciate any thoughts about how I can manage a "soft landing" transition to a rebuild.  Comment here or on the WC - thanks.

4 comments:

  1. I'd have to spend intense time hyper analyzing your roster to make any real suggestions. The DOS were in your position when the goose departed and I was happy to run the same team out there with some exceptions of a few FA pitchers, (no one mentioning about the ind salary cap when I over signed Corey Booker,@#&%$!!!). I like to hold on to good players so I haven't let my hitters leave even if they're 36, 37. So my strategy, or lack of, is something anyone else would scoff at.
    I have brought down payroll significantly and tried to bring up scouting. The minors goose left were horrible. They still are. This is the 5-7 year, or more, plan you detest, as do I, well, somewhat. But I think this is the most likely way we all do it.
    Other than that, it's the usual trade your great guys who are 30-32 now or next year for prospects. This strategy I don't like as I assume other owners are like me and wouldn't give up a great prospect.

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  2. Yes, you've hit on the dilemma. Power hitters like Wilk and Keppinger (on my team) are worth having, but once they get past 30 they don't bring much on the trade market. Itou of course has been an exception, but he's the best player ever in Hobbs. I think my path to reducing payroll is going to be through the bargain-basement FA market as I build my scouting back up. That doesn't seem very original, but it's the only way I can see rebuilding and still being at least a marginal contender. Dumping everybody and living through a few 65-win seasons seems to be the standard for rebuilding but I just can't wait for that anymore.

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  3. Signing bargain bin Type As while you have low scouting seems a bit obvious, but it will help with depth. When you have a lot of cap clear, you need to decide whether you're going after stars or IFAs, and project your budget accordingly. The quality of your team at that point (i.e. the picks you'd be giving up) might make that call for you. Tinkering on the margins can help a lot, and maybe move one of your prime studs for pieces more inline with the next generation? Let the older guys hang on with a healthy training budget... especially the pitchers.

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  4. Ultimately, you want to get a young stud who makes you want to keep up the effort to build a good team around him.

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