Saturday, April 30, 2016

A Controversial (But Justifiable) Pick For AL MVP

Time for one of the Season's biggest arguments (rivaled perhaps by Hall of Fame): who should win the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races in each league?  Park effects, the value of wind for pitchers, more innings vs. more quality, where does defense fit?  ALl make for an enjoyable debate.  Who are your favs this year?

Let's warm up with the AL MVP, where it looks like Fire Blitz 2B B.C. Alfonzo had a commanding season, but some dissent is possible.

The case for Alfonzo:  Led the league in hits, RBI (by a mile), runs created, and tied for 3rd in HR's.  Won the 2B Gold Glove (.990 fielding %, 24 + plays) and played all 162 games. And his team lapped the field with 118 wins.

The case against Alfonzo:  pretty meager.  Huntington was probably the 2nd-friendliest park for hitters this year (next to Santa Fe).  RBI are somewhat circumstantial - with a league-leading .359 OBP, the Blitz clearly had a bunch of guys reaching base ahead of Alfonzo.

The others:  Monahan seems to always be on the ballot.  He won a Gold Glove of his own this year, and plays in the most hitter-suffocating park in the league.  Does anyone doubt that if Monahan had played in Huntington this year...and Alfonzo in Burlington...that Monhan would be our odds-on MVP favorite?  Here are their respective stats AWAY from their home parks:  Alfonzo:  .867 OPS, 21 HR's;  Monahan: .957 OPS, 25 HR's.

From this more-level-playing field comparison, it looks like Monahan had the better offensive season.

Walton and Itou (even in a down year for him) both had killer years, but when IF's put up comparable offense in addition to GG defense, well, they're the favorites.

Who should win?  Monahan  Runnerup:  Alfonzo

Monday, April 4, 2016

Strategy Session: $20MM Medical

I used to be one of those owners who punted the Medical category...took it all the way to $0 in all my worlds.

My thinking was that you don't want to spend $$ to remedy things that are rare events...better to spend $$ on categories that affect players a lot, or all the time.  So I parked $20mm in training and left it there, went to $0 medical, and decided to put up with the consequent long injuries.

The results were utterly disastrous.  A huge increase in the frequency of injuries, and a lot of them were very long-term and devastating.  With $0 in Medical, I obviously also got very little recovery.

I hasten to add that my understanding, formed so long ago that I can't remember the source of it, was that Training, not Medical, was what affected the frequency of injuries.  I'm wondering about that now.  Could be that I had an unlucky run right as I took my Med to $0, but I'm also wondering if my long-held belief was incorrect...?

In any event, I've been working my Med budgets back up the last few seasons and most are north of $10MM now.  I'm wondering how far to take them.

My IF Pablo Valbuena suffered an ACL tear last year that took his Range from 80 to 66; over the off-season and the first half of this year it recovered 9 points to 75.  For my purposes (backup 2B and 3B) he's recovered just about all his value (with a range of 80 I doubt I would've used him as a backup CF...I'd use my backup SS for that and still only have to carry 2 players to back up SS, CF, 2B and 3B).

My general question is this:  Is $20MM Medical worth it?

I know it occasionally (not always...???) takes an injured player's ratings above their pre-injury levels when they go on the 60-day DL (the "super-soldier protocol).  That's the big appeal.

But it's still a big price to pay for something that happens infrequently.  It probably means you don't play in the IFA market, at least for the top guys, unless your payroll is very low or you get very lucky.

What's your experience with $20MM Medical budgets?