Monday, July 28, 2014

Anatomy of a Deal... by topoftheworl

Unless otherwise stated all commentary is mine.

All times are in Alaska Standard Time. 4 hours earlier than the East Coast

10:21pm Friday (henceforth labeled as “F”): St. Nick writes “I’m open for trades people, not truly in a building phase but looking for some young future ML keystones. Will trade all but 1 (you’ll know him when you see him).

I see it soon thereafter and look at my spreadsheet at his team. My spreadsheet is what I sent out plus some formula that give every hitter a score for their bat and every pitcher a non-stamina/durability based score for their arm. 2 guys catch my attention. Diory Diaz who scores as a #2 starter and Jesus Gutierrez who scores as a #1. It turns out Gutierrez has ultralow stamina (10) and is oldish (32) and I already have too many ML quality relievers with my Fausto Rodriquez IFA signing. He should have gone directly to the ML, but there is no innings there for him yet. However Diaz is 29 and in the last year of his deal. I like that if he is willing to sign because I’m happy to lock him up for 5 more. Right now I have a #1 (Bronson), 2 #3’s (Chang and Mays), and a #4 (Rodriguez). Adding Diaz allows me to move everyone by Bronson down and gives me a slightly better than average rotation. Plus, at 29 Diaz still has at least 4 high quality seasons after this one. His stamina/durability is a little low (which is why he is only a 76 overall), but I have quality bullpen arms coming out of my ears so that matters less to me than it otherwise would.

11:22pm F I ask him who the 1 guy he will not move is. I also state my interest in Dorey Diaz, but only if he’ll resign.

11:51pm F I learn the guy is Ike Allen and that Diaz wants 5/30mil

I had no interest in Allen anyway. He’s amazing, but I have corner OF covered. I’d have given Diaz 5/40 without blinking so I’m pleased.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: At this point in the season I was surprised to have a winning record and be in first place in the NL West. As much as it pains me to say it, since I left the Blue Collars in the NL East - several seasons ago - I had just been drifting along in Hobbs. Realizing that I had to return to my old form, I took a long look at my entire system and was not overly pleased. My system was lacking the talent necessary to sustain a winning organization and the "Lothbroks" are a winning organization. For those of you who watch the Viking's series and know the "Lothbroks," you know that Ragnar Lothbrok is no drifter. So, having realized my needs I announced to the world my intention to begin trade talk and immediately sent numerous trade chats/offers to various owners. At the time Topoftheworl contacted me about interest in Diaz, I had not specifically thought about trading him but true to my word, all but one was on the block. I looked over Topoftheworl's roster and discovered a lot of young talent. In particular, I noticed Reagan (who I saw as a long shot), Matos, Hoiles and Bagley. I decided to shoot for Matos.

12:23am S He asks for Miguel Matos

The two positions not settled on my ML roster are SS and 1B. I have guys playing out of position covering 1B which is fine for now. Matos can just plain hit and he’s only 20. I need to redirect St. Nick. It is at this point I notice that he has a better record than me.

12:31pm S I tell him I intend to start Matos next season and that while I won’t say he’s off limits, I would want to see if I stayed in the race before making that deal. I tell him I am thinking about centering a deal around Fausto Rivera. I also state that he has a pretty good team.

On my screen I have Fausto Rivera, Henry Coleman, and one other guy on my screen for Diaz, but haven’t offered him yet.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I can see that Topoftheworl appears to want to deal around Rivera, a SS. I know that losing Diaz will hurt, but I conclude it will not hurt nearly as bad if I can get an impact prospect in return. Looking at Rivera I realize he is a "solid prospect" but do not view him as an "impact" one, at least for my system. At this point I doubt I will get to Reagan, but want to test the waters some concerning his tradeability. At this point I know that if I trade Diaz, Matos must be part of it.

12:50pm S He tells me likes Rivera, but that he is also interested in Don Bagley, Kevin Holes, and Woody Regan. He also tells me that he thinks his team is playing well, but he wants to add a few prospects.

1:06am S I seek to affirm that he does not want a ML back and that I will send him an excellent 4th OF because I’ll need the roster spot anyway. I also state that Reagan is not available and that I don’t want to move Bagley unless I am going to stay in the race.

I’m stalling for time at this point. He has a taste of the deal and I am hoping by pulling back a little he will strive for it by taking Rivera instead of Bagley or Matos. Rivera is a good player, but he kind of lacks a position. Not enough glove for SS, not enough bat for a top flight 3B. He’s still getting better so he may grow into it, but probably not with me.

I send him Rivera, Kevin Hoiles, and my wonderful 4th OF Eckenstahler. I want him to send 5mil back.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I review his offer and immediately notice that Matos is not a part of it. I know we do not yet have a deal. Looking at the offer, however, I look at Eckenstahler and plug him into my own player evaluating system. The result: he's not a starter and has a serious health risk, but I really like him. I view him as an excellent outfield/infield sub who can come off the bench and steal bases. I like to have one of these players on every team, and like that he will also replace the ML roster spot I will have trading Diaz. But not for Rivera.

1:27a S He tells me he thinks the deal is fair, but hesitates because he’s pretty deep at SS.

1:29a S I reply that he should feel free to counter but think that he will take my offer in the morning.

Getting a #2 SP for 4th OF, a solid young RP prospect, and a SS/3B is pretty awesome.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I do not hesitate at all about declining the offer. I know what I'm after, it's Matos. So, I counter swapping Rivera for Matos and while I'm at it, why not cut the cash from $5M to $2.5. My reasoning: Looking at the finances, I realize that the deal is fine financially but also want to leave room to possibly contract a SP from the free-agent's board since I will not be getting a replacement ML pitcher.

10:38a S He let’s me know he has countered and I don’t like it at all!
He wants Matos instead of Rivera and he cuts the cash in half.
10:42a S I tell him that I can’t see myself giving up Hoiles and the cash.

I’m winning on the Guerrero negotiations. Funny, I think I overpaid for my first IFA, but think Guerrero worth at least 3 mil more that I do not have. Even in this deal I’m in trouble in terms of signing my 1st round pick, but I’m within a million. I can’t give up the cash, but don’t want him knowing that so I try to make it sound like it’s about Hoiles. I like Hoiles, but he’s a future Setup A. I gamble that he will want Hoiles more than the cash since Hoiles would be a 6 millionish IFA if we was on the market.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I'm also gradually increasing my bids with an IFA Guerrero, but receive his last insult as he tells me something his mother says - I don't really listen and brush it to the side - and then he informs me that he will be wearing another teams uniform unless I offer him the green. His passive aggression is offensive to me and I wonder in the back of my mind whether his Mother is his agent. I decide to stop my bidding on him because he's immature and get back to dealing for Matos. I figured I'd probably have to pay $5M, so was not surprised there.

10:54a S My gamble pays off and he gives the cash back.

11:00a S I’ve negotiated myself into a corner by getting him to concede on the cash with a concession from me. I’ve kind of hinted that I will accept now by that move. I ask him if he sees Matos and Bagley as equivalent. I like Bagley a lot, but like Matos better and will probably do it if he will take Bagley. Getting a SP I am going to lock up for 5 seasons makes Bagley less necessary. I also ask for time. Finally, I ask if he actually wants the 4th OF as at this point I am not pleased with the thought of overpaying and will try to get someone else to overpay for my OF.

11:13am S He expresses a clear preference for Matos, though concedes there is a health risk. He says that he likes the 4th OF (Eckenstahler) a lot too (he’s really quite good).

11:15am S He informs that Indy has expressed an interest in Diaz too, but that he does not see a deal being made at this time. We make fun of Indy for a while, but really we are both just jealous. I tell him he should lie to Jibe about what I am offering to see if he’ll over pay.

I REALLY don’t want Indy getting him and he has to know that. stnick is wiping the court with me right now. I look for some way to get myself back in the driver’s seat and not give him $1.25 on the dollar because I need the deal more. I see that Cam Ford has 30 million coming to him over the next 2 seasons but is only worth half that. I have payroll flexibility in droves. I go fishing to see if he will pay me to take Ford.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I google "skilled negotiator" and read that building confidence an rapport is important. Google says "common interests" and "flattery", so I immediately think back to my time in the East with the Scranton Blue Collars. We discuss the challenges that the Indianapolis Cougars present, I am also currently playing the Cougars and kicking their asses, although I fail to mention this. I attempt to convince Topoftheworl that with Diaz he is sure to improve his chances of "staying in the race" and then ask whether he would like to "go big" with this deal, referring to a possible deal for Diaz and Ford, in which case I think I may have a chance at Reagan.

11:47a S He doesn’t bite and plays Ford as if Ford has value.

12:26p S He goes fishing and tries to see if he can get me to include Reagan. He says some nice things about having been in my position against Indy before.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I have now discussed common interests and exercised flattery, I think I'm sure to land a deal now, once again discussing the possibility of throwing Reagan into the mix. I think it might be squashed, which it was, but figure it was worth trying.

12:40p S I restate that Reagan is not in play.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: Topoftheworl unequivocally informs me that Reagan = Ike Allen, the one player that I stated from the beginning as untouchable. This registers loud and clear. Still, it takes me 5 minutes to convince myself to not bring Reagan up again, at all, lest my rapport with Topoftheworl and all the flattery will be all for not!

12:47p He offers Diaz, Ford, and 10 mil for Matos, Bagley, and Hoiles over two deals.

1:25p-1:35p We go back and forth about how valuable spreadsheets are in HBD

2:41p I tell him that including Ford just doesn’t add up for me. According to my formula he is only a little better of a hitter than Matos right now.

2:50p I pull out of the deal as currently constructed.

I feel bad, but it’s just not a good value for me. I look one more time for something we can do. It’s only at this point that I see Herm Stein. I missed him the first few times looking at my SS because while it lists the defensive stats, it doesn’t score them. I just pull up his top 3 overalls to make sure I didn’t miss anything. I’m like holy **** 97 range. 23 years old, on a minimum deal. 21 + plays? I go to my SS. He’s bat is would be the 4th best on my team and he’s only 23. I compare him to Arthur Bryant (who I really, really like) and except for health and batting eye (their durabilities are close enough) Stein wins across the board. An all-star at 22, I think he’s probably a top 3 at his position guy right now and he’s still getting better. I want him BADLY.
3:12p S I tell him I am offering him a deal with Bagley and Matos

I then futz and fiddle about how to get him to do Stein, Matos, and Bryant for Diaz, Stein, and 5 million. In the end I send him an offer without Bryant and with Hoiles instead knowing he’ll say no, but giving me somewhere to counter to.

3:41p S He tells me he can’t do it. It’s a fair offer, but that Stein is his one good young ML’er.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: After our discussions and much time attempting to reach a compromise, I simply feel that I cannot give up Stein. In declining the offer I point out that he simply is the best CF I have had, ever. I begin to think of my enjoyment in seeing frequent + and ++ as I scroll down the game logs. Although I fail to mention it, I know that I will not get the same results from Bryant, although he's a very close replacement. I deny the offer and tell Topoftheworl that I cannot do it because he is my only youth ML guy.

3:47p S I reply that I included Bryant he would still have a plus CF’er. He counters that while that is true, Bryant is no Stein.

Well, I tried.

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I read his remarks and think, "That is true." I mean, my only concern was having youth, which really is the only reason I could not pull the trigger on the deal. I feel cornered, a bit trapped. In fact, I feel as Dakar apparently did in a previous negotiation with Topoftheworl, "in a headlock."

4:01p S With the family in the car I go back in the house just to tell him that I am heading to a BBQ on the beach (of the Arctic Ocean).

STNICK'S COMMENTARY: I read that Topoftheworl is going to a BBQ, and I have a moment of sheer panic as the envy sets in. I also arrive at the realization that Topoftheworl too must have googled "skilled negotiator" and was using his knowledge of "commonalities" against me. I too have a family and a car, and who doesn't like BBQ's. Realizing that we've negotiated hard, that I frankly did not enjoy the headlock, and truly wanted to help him dismantle the Cougars as I was currently doing, I immediately began a counter offer to surprise him upon his return from his BBQ. I plated the deal for Matos, Bryant and Bagley, giving up Diaz and Stein. I'd note that in the latest offer, Topoftheworl had reduced his cash demand to $4.25M from $5M. Out of the kindness of my heart, and having determined that i would not need to employ the services of another FA pitcher, I upped the cash back to $5M, and submitted.

All in all, I agreed very quickly because the deal was extremely fair. He received to quality ML players who will definitely improve his team, and I was receiving 2 quality prospects and an extremely good CF to replace my CF stud. I'll miss Diaz and all of Stein's plus plays and above average, actually great, bat, but this was a great negotiation and a lot of fun.

6:45p S I come to see that he has offered me the deal I thought I was going to have to talk him into.

7:03p I thank him for being such a pleasure to work with.

Friday, July 25, 2014

The First 23... A Ranking of the Most Successful Franchises in Hobbs History...

As the inaugural post of the re-vamped Hobbs Headlines, why not do a look back at the most successful franchises in the first 23 seasons of the league. The teams were ranked on both regular season success and playoff success, pennants, and, of course, championships. Each franchise name is listed in its current incarnation. The initial post will be teams 10-15, and I'll post one new team per day until we get to #1 (but I'm guessing all of the long time Hobbs members can guess which team is #1... SPOILER ALERT: Its not a surprise!).

1- Indianapolis Cougars






Championships: 5
Pennants: 7
Division Titles: 14
Total Playoff Appearances: 14
Franchise Record: 2128-1598
Seasons w/ winning record: 15
Best Position Player in Team History: Sal Lombardi
Best Pitcher in Team History: Jair Gonzalez

I won't lie... this one is painful for me to write. I'm still bitter, broken and emotional over back-to-back seasons of losing the WS in Game 7 to the Cougs... Two of the WS could be mine! But, alas, they're not. They're just two of a collection of WS Banners hanging at aptly named 'Victory Field.' Just to show you how far ahead the Cougars are... I'll reveal the franchise scores for this ranking. The scored for #2 KC was 60, and the score for #10 Vancouver was 48. All of the teams at 2 thru 10 were pretty damn close. Indianapolis scored at 101. Take a deep breath... here are the records... most championships, most pennants, most regular season wins, most division titles, most trips to the LCS or deeper, most 100+ win seasons, second most seasons with a winning record and second most trips to the playoffs. What about the Golden Age? That's right now. This team has been dominating Hobbs over the last six seasons, and dominating the NL for 13 seasons. Six consecutive trips to the World Series, with 4 championships to show for it. Only Colorado (now Honolulu) and Syracuse were able to slow down this dynasty. The NL in particular has really been under this team's shadow. Out of the last 13 seasons, the Cougars have been to the NLCS 11 times. The NLCS has almost been an appointment to see what team gets to play Indianapolis for the Pennant. Even more impressive... during those 13 seasons the Cougars (or, briefly as the New York Nightmares) were the #1 seed in the NL 10 times! They were a #2 seed twice and a #3 seed once... Thirteen seasons of dominance is absolutely incredible... will the Age of the Cougars ever end?

2- Kansas City Jayhawks






Championships: 1
Pennants: 3
Division Titles: 12
Total Playoff Appearances: 16
Franchise Record: 2100-1626
Seasons w/ winning record: 16
Best Position Player in Team History: Luis Concepcion
Best Pitcher in Team History: Woody Clifton

Normally I'd talk about a team's history, when they were at their best, where else the team has played etc, etc. Not the case with KC. They have only played in Kansas City, only ever been the Jayhawks, and only Dakar has run this squad. They don't have a Golden Era, because they don't really have down seasons... only missing the playoffs 7 times in 23 seasons. The only chick in this franchise's armor is the lone, single title. But lets check out the other stuff. Second best franchise record in the league, most seasons with a winning record, most times in the playoffs, second most division titles, second most 100+ win seasons, and second most trips to the LCS or deeper with 9. The Jayhawks have been the benchmark for consistency and winning in the league, and the jewel of the AL.

3- Baltimore Buushwackerz






Championships: 2
Pennants: 3
Division Titles: 5
Total Playoff Appearances: 13
Franchise Record: 2006-1720
Seasons w/ winning record: 16
Best Position Player in Team History: Slick Rapp and Hugh Figueroa
Best Pitcher in Team History: Steve Smart

This franchise was one of the most stable in the league. For 21 seasons this team was the Scranton Blue Collars and guiding by stnick44. For Season 22 it stayed in Scranton as the RailRiders, before turzich took over a couple of seasons ago and the team became the Baltimore Buushwackerz. For this piece, we'll be focusing on the Blue Collars. This is the 4th winningest franchise in Hobbs and one of only 4 with multiple WS titles. The 16 seasons with a winning record is tied for the most with KC. The Blue Collars really hit their stride in Seaons 5-14. During that span, the team made the playoffs every season, and also was the NL's #1 seed for 4 straight. The team won 3 Pennants and 2 World Series, in Seasons 6 and 13. The franchise has really been in a drought since that Season 13 WS win though. In the 10 seasons since, it has made the playoffs but twice, including last season, the 1st season that turzich took over.

4- Durham Bulls






Championships: 1
Pennants: 4
Division Titles: 4
Total Playoff Appearances: 12
Franchise Record: 1926-1800
Seasons w/ winning record: 13
Best Position Player in Team History: Fred Henderson
Best Pitcher in Team History: Rob Abercrombie

Different franchise. Nearly the same story. Six different owners, five different cities. First the Dover Diamond Devils, then the Dover Bull  Dogs, the Columbus Red Dogs, the Wichita Lineman, the Rochester Rockets and now the Durham Bulls. This team really had its glory days as the Dover Diamond Devils. That team played for Seasons 1-9. Every one of those seasons it made the playoffs. Four times the Devils were the NL's #1 seed. Four times they won the NL Pennant, and they won the World Series in Season 2. The next 11 seasons were terrible. Not once did the Bull Dogs or the Lineman or the Rockets make the playoffs. And only once did any of those teams finish higher than 3rd place. Bux_express took over 4 seasons ago, and has made an immediate impact. Though he certainly hasn't reached the heights of the Diamond Devils, the Durham Bulls have made the playoffs every season they have been in North Carolina. They even made it to the NLCS. Now they just need  to take the next step forward and start seriously competing for a Pennant.

5- Nashville Bootleggers






Championships: 1
Pennants: 3
Division Titles: 12
Total  Playoff Appearances: 13
Franchise Record: 1987-1739
Seasons w/ winning record: 13
Best Position Player in Team History: Yunel Guerrero
Best Pitcher in Team History: Corban Chiasson

This franchise hasn't had the instability that has plagued many of Hobbs' franchises. Its only played in four cities, under four different owners. The seasons that propelled this franchise into the top five were all early in Hobbs history. In Seasons 1-6 (with 1-4 playing as the New Orleans Bayou Bengals and 5-9 playing as the Austin Kangaroos), this squad was a #1 or a #2 seed in the AL every season. They won the AL South every season. They won two AL Pennants and a World Series in Season 4. The team would then go from Austin to Oklahoma City. The five seasons in Oklahoma, as the Falcons, were a time to forget. The Falcons would never make the playoffs, never have a winning record and would finish in 3rd or 4th place every season. Rbjb came in to take over the team in Season 16. He moved the team to Nashville and re-branded it the Bootleggers. In just one season he had his team back in the playoffs. Since the move to Tennessee, the Bootleggers have been a factor in the AL and a perennial playoff team. They have made the plyaoffs 5 of the last 7 seasons, and also won the AL Pennant in Season 19. This franchise has tied (with Kansas City) for the most division titles in the AL, has the 2nd best overall franchise record in the AL and is tied for the 2nd most 100 win seasons in the AL.

6- Honolulu Hurricanes






Championships: 1
Pennants: 4
Division Titles: 7
Total Playoff Appearances: 10
Franchise Record: 1881-1845
Seasons w/ winning record: 11
Best Position Player in Team History: Zack Matthews
Best Pitcher in Team History: Jack Harding and Dennis Hyun

In the pre-historic period of the Hobbs league, this franchise was the whipping boy of the AL. In Seasons 1-11, this franchise earned exactly 1 playoff appearance and had exactly 0 seasons with a winning record. The only reason the team made it into the playoffs at all in Season 1 was the AL West was terrible and 76 wins was good enough to win it. This franchise even finished in 4th place for five consecutive seasons at one point. Part of the issue was most certainly (like many other teams at the time) instability in ownership. Season 1, San Jose Red Bulls... Season 2, Portland Pioneers... Season 3, Salem Thunder Stixx... Seasons 4-10, Las Vegas Legends/Beer View Mirrors... etc. The only thing these squads had in common (because it certainly wasn't ownership, 3 different owners in the first 6 seasons before mal24 took over) was that they lost, a lot. The franchise finally found a long term owner in Season 7, when mal24 came in. He would guide this team for the next 12 seasons through Season 18. Though the team would still bounce around a bit (from Las Vegas to the Salem Senators to the Honolulu Honolulus to the Colorado Crotch Crushers) before mal left, he provided the stability and direction that the franchise desperately needed. Though it didn't appear that way at first. For mal's first five seasons, the team had a losing record, averaged a record of 63-99 and finished in last place. Then the team moved to Salem and everything seemed to fall into place. In the first season as the Senators, they finished with 90 wins... and the franchises 1st ever winning record and trip to the playoffs. It was a sign of things to come. The Senators would win back-to-back AL Pennants in Seasons 13 and 14, though ultimately lose in the WS both seasons. This team was now an AL power. Five consecutive division titles, five consecutive 100-win seasons, seven consecutive trips to the playoffs, 3 AL Pennants and, finally, that elusive WS title in Season 18, in their only season under the guise of the Colorado Crotch Crushers. Mal would leave Hobbs on top, and rattlers would take over in Season 19. Under pressure of the players, the team was moved back to Hawaii (I mean, come on, Hawaii or Colorado?) and re-christened the Hurricanes. Rattlers took over a team that was on the back side of dominance and was able to orchestrate a mini-Renaissance in his first season, and playoff baseball was back in Honolulu. Ultimately though, he was unable to maintain playoff status, as the team was clinging on a bit too long to prior glory and was in need of at least a re-tooling, and maybe even a re-build. Rattlers chose the re-tooling route, and though the team missed the postseason for three straight seasons (20-22), it was still a competitive team and he was he was rewarded for staying the course with a fantastic run in Season 23. Last season's playoffs were a magical time for this team. They defeated the Season 20 WS Champion, and their 2 All Star starting pitchers Wilson and Ellis, in Syracuse in the Wild Card round. Then in the ALDS, in a tight 5-game series, the Hurricanes defeated the back-to-back AL Champion, and division rival, Las Vegas Desperados. In the ALCS, they surprisingly ran over the AL's top seed, and perennial AL power, Kansas City Jayhawks in 5 games. To add insult to injury for the Jayhawks, the Hurricanes are now tied with the Jayhawks for most AL Pennants with four. The team fell just short in the WS though. Once again the dynastic Cougars defeated the AL Champion in a very tight seven games. It was the third straight season that the AL has had their hearts broken by Indianapolis in seven games. Will the Hurricanes carry their success into Season 24? It'll be tough, no doubt. The AL West boasted 3 teams with winning records last season, and Vegas has proven to be the class of the division (and it could even be argued of the AL) for the last 2-3 seasons.

7- Santa Cruz Designated Drinkers






Championships: 3
Pennants: 3
Division Titles: 9
Total Playoff Appearances: 9
Franchise Record: 1839-1887
Seasons w/ winning record: 10
Best Position Player in Team History: Roland Stanton
Best Pitcher in Team History: Mike Burroughs

Like the now Vancouver VooDoo, this is another franchise that has a history of instability. It has played in 10 different cities, under 11 different names, with 9 different owners guiding it. Are you ready for the list (deep breath): Las Vegas Marauders, San Francisco Dedringers, Arizona Cascabel Diamantes (named after the snake I suppose, but could also have been sponsored by Mitsubishi?), Boise Potato Heads, San Jose Poppies, San Jose Phils, Anaheim Angels, Albuquerque Swingers, Oakland Cracked Bats and the Scottsdale Darts. The longest period of stability was Season 2 through 8. The team was the San Francisco Dedringers. But we'll get back to the Dedringers. Unlike Philadelphia and Chicago, who earned their way onto this list with decades of stability, winning records and playoff appearances with the occasional Pennant and World Series, this franchise broke onto the list with a short period of extreme dominance. This is the only franchise in the Top 10 with a losing record, that has more losing seasons than winning seasons, and has the fewest playoff appearances of any of the Top 10. But its hard to overlook 3 World Series titles. Lets go back to the Golden Age of Hobbs baseball in San Francisco. For a seven season stretch, this team was the San Francisco Dedringers. In six of those seasons, they won the NL West. It also won 3 World Series' in a five season span... raising a championship banner for Seasons 3, 5 and 7. Since this team left the City by by Bay, it has been but a shell of itself. In the 16 seasons since that last World Series win... only 3 trips to the playoffs, and only 3 seasons with a winning record. In those 3 playoff trips, the team didn't make any noise. This season brings yet another new owner, and another new city. Though nobody is quite sure what to expect from the new Santa Cruz Designated Drinkers, hope springs eternal from fans in this small beach city. There is certainly opportunity here as well, as the NL West has been a weak division for the last two seasons, with only one team within the division producing a winning record during those two years.


8- Philadelphia Erffdoggs






Championships: 1
Pennants: 2
Division Titles: 7
Total Playoff Appearances: 11
Franchise Record: 2042-1684
Seasons w/ winning record: 16
Best Position Player in Team History: John Yamamoto and Ken Woods
Best Pitcher in Team History: Ted Sheets

The Erffdoggs have consistently been a very good team throughout their history, always in contention for the playoffs. They have the 3rd best franchise record, and are one of only 3 teams to have 16 seasons with a winning record. In recent Hobbs history, the Erffdoggs have been one of the AL's heavyweights. For seven straight seasons, from 16-22, Philly won their division and was either the #1 or the #2 seed going into the playoffs. In six of those seasons, 16-21, the franchise won at least 100 games. In Season 17, the City of Brotherly Love was treated to this franchise's 2nd AL Pennant, and a its lone, and long overdue, World Series Championship. Considering the dominance of this team during that span, one could argue that this team has underachieved in the playoffs, but I think that is overlooking the really brutal nature of the AL in the last eight seasons or so. Perennial playoff squads Syracuse, Las Vegas, Nashville and a recently reloaded Kansas City squad make the AL playoffs a gauntlet to run though, and a real crap shoot where anything can happen. Going into this season, I think fans and the local media have some questions about the direction of this squad. For the last two seasons, this squad's win total has taken a step backward. Last season, the Erffdoggs didn't make the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons. The question is: Is the Golden Age in Philly over? Is this group done? Is it time for a rebuild? Or were the last two seasons an anomaly? Is this squad capable of reloading around the great Ken Woods and veteran Juan Carrasquel and making another playoff run? Stay tuned for our AL Preview Post...


9- Chicago Orphans






Championships: 1
Pennants: 2
Division Titles: 9
Total Playoff Appearances: 15
Franchise Record: 1975-1751
Seasons w/ winning record: 14
Best Position Player in Team History: BJ Lawton
Best Pitcher in Team History: Willie Strong

Though this team has been at the bottom on the NL in recent seasons, the Orphans break into the top ten due to the franchise's incredible consistency. The team has the 5th best record in all of Hobbs, and has been in the playoffs more times than any other franchise except for Kansas City. From Seasons 4-18, 15 consecutive seasons, the Orphans were in the playoffs. The team was a dominant power in the NL for a 4 season span in Seasons 10-13. The team was 405-243 during those 4 seasons. It won 3 division titles, 2 NL Pennants, made 3 trips to the NLCS and won its only World Series title. Franchise legends Lawton and Stong were both instrumental in winning that title and in Chicago's Golden Age. Lawton, of course, isn't just a legend on his team, but one of Hobbs' All Time Greats. He is in the Hobbs HoF, and is 3rd on the all-time home run list, and 2nd in career SLG. Outside of this four season Golden Age though, the Orphans haven't had any success making deep playoff runs. Despite the team being unable to get to 70-wins for the last four seasons, the franchise has a number of very good prospects and could be on the verge of turning their fortunes around. David James (LF), Harry Johnson (CF) and Mule Meek (SS) are all highly touted, top end prospects who are on the verge of getting their call to the big leagues. The pitching farm depth isn't nearly as deep, but the team does have young lefty Corey Booker in the lower minors. Booker has the potential to develop into a top of the rotation starting pitcher, though it won't be for another few seasons yet, and well after James, Johnson and Meek are well established. If Chicago can either add a few more elite arm prospects, or make a couple of timely free-agent signings of veteran pitchers, this team could be figuring into the NL playoff picture in the very near future.


10- Vancouver Voodoo






Championships: 1
Pennants: 4
Division Titles: 4
Total Playoff Appearances: 8
Franchise Record: 1891-1835
Seasons w/ winning record: 16
Best Position Player in Team History: Alfredo Payton
Best Pitcher in Team History: Adrian McGuire

Out of the top 10, the Voodoo have one of the lowest win totals, fewest division titles and playoff appearances. What put this squad in the top 10? Its 4 AL Pennants. That is tied for the most in the AL. It was the early history of this franchise that was its hay-day. In Season 1, as the Seattle Imperials, this franchise won Hobbs' inaugural World Series. They then won the pennant in the AL in Seasons 1-3. After dominating the AL for the league's first three seasons, its been downhill. The franchise has been plagued by a revolving door in ownership and has moved from city to city. There have been 9 different owners and seven different cities. No owner has stayed with this franchise for longer than six seasons. They started in Seattle as the Imperials, and stayed there through Season 6, finishing that stint as the Mariners. Then, staying in the Pacific Northwest, they moved to Portland for 3 seasons as the Pub Crawlers. The team packed up and moved across country for one season as the Syracuse Orange, before returning to Portland once again, for only a single season as the Seadogs. Another cross-country trip to play for two seasons as the Hartford Colonials preceded the longest period of stability in franchise history. The team moved to Canada, and for the next six seasons played as the Mutant Caribou. This period was highlighted by a magical playoff run in Season 16. The Caribou were the AL's #6 seed and tore through the playoffs to win the franchise's 4th AL Pennant, including a shocking upset of the heavily favored Philadelphia Erffdoggs in the ALDS. The team would ultimately play in Montreal for 8 total seasons, with the last two under the name of the 'Exporters'. For the last two seasons, the team has stayed in Canada, but on the west coast as the Vancouver Voodoo. They are the only Hobbs team in Canada and have a strong following throughout the country, having just played their 10th season in the US's northern neighbor. Times have certainly been very lean for this franchise in recent history. It hasn't won a division title since Season 4. It has only made the playoffs 4 times in the last 19 seasons. Things seem to be looking up though. The team was in the playoffs last season, and boasted a regular season record of 97-65, the best record this team has had in 14 seasons.


11- Richmond Fire Blitz

12- Jackson Mudslide

13- Las Vegas Desperados

14- Los Angeles Lothbroks

15- Syracuse Shockers

Foggy Forecast in Helena

Courtesy of hotdog

I'm not at all sure what this team might do. Certainly,they won't set the league on fire. The big surprise of ST was the performance of 30 year old career minor league first baseman Allen Brown who has been stuck behind other talented players at this dime a dozen position for years. When given a chance,he delivered. Our goal this season is to equal or exceed last season's 63 wins,good enough not to get booted from the league. We despair of our farm system which did not exist before we took over. The team was also full of aging past their prime players. Our best talent is already in the majors. Starting pitchers Neftali Lee and utilityman Tim Lofton were so disappointing in ST they will have to work their way back and are lucky to have made the team. A full season from catcher Omar Feliz,shotstop James Fujiwara,third baseman Tom Winston and newly-acquired center fielder Pedro Prieto should help. The pitching is a little gray. 36 year old Vic Brand and 35 year old Turner McMahon are in the twilight of their careers. The rotation is rounded out by the surprising development of young Cesar Quinten,the newly acquired Dicky Wingo and the perpetually mediocre Dusty Kennedy. Look for Greg Willis and/or Steven Dransfeldt to challenge for spots in the rotation. All that being said,look for these players to get most of the playing time this
season:
C Omar Feliz
1B Ivan Morales
2B Lonnie Felsen
SS James Fujiwara
3B Tom Winston
LF Alan Duncan
CF Pedro Prieto
RF Edwin Jones
DH Carlton Wade
The starting rotation:
1 Vic Brand
2 Turner McMahon
3 Cesar Quinten
4 Dusty Kennedy
5 Dicky Wingo
That's all,folks! The End

Monday, July 14, 2014

Season 24 Preview

Special thanks to Power Rankings correspondent topoftheworl for his work below!

Regular Season Predictions

AL North

Kansas City (107-55)
Boise (89-73) WC #1
Vancouver (84-78)
Philadelphia (71-91)

AL East
Trenton (86-76)
Syracuse (83-79)
Richmond (79-83)
New Britain (66-96)

AL South
Nashville (86-76)
Jackson (79-83)
Florida (75-87)
New Orleans (63-99)

AL West
Las Vegas (101-61)
Honolulu (88-74) WC #2
Cheyenne (83-79)
San Diego (71-91)


NL North
Pawtucket (96-66)
Cincinnati (93-69) WC #1
Milwaukee (73-89)
Chicago (67-95)

NL East
Indianapolis (101-61)
Jacksonville (86-76)
Durham (76-86)
Baltimore (73-89)

NL South
Charlotte (95-67)
San Juan (90-72) WC #2
St. Louis (88-74)
Little Rock (57-105)

NL West
San Francisco (84-78)
Santa Cruz (72-90)
Los Angeles (66-96)
Helena (64-98)



Top 75 hitters
Player Team RC/27
Jin-Chi Itou LV 9.19
P.T. Feliz KC 8.43
Christy King SYRA 8.21
Jamey Brewington JV 7.73
Jumbo Sanchez LV 7.66
Tommy Webster JACK 7.59
Ken Woods PHIL 7.46
Edwin Jones HELE 7.40
Moises Morales IND 7.31
Ron Casey StL; 7.26
Geronimo Marquez PHIL 7.19
Bengie Fernandez SF 7.19
Alan Duncan HELE 7.14
Michael Palmer BOI 7.08
Yonder Rosado KC 7.02
Zack Matthews HON 6.99
Tony Jones BALT 6.92
Vinny Catalanotto HON 6.92
Terry Taylor SJ 6.90
Rob Counsell SF 6.88
Hector Cortez SF 6.86
Dicky Barker LV 6.84
Scott Herndon SC 6.83
Yunel Guerrero TREN 6.81
Del Camacho KC 6.76
Vicente Carrara VANC 6.71
Hugh Figueroa CHAR 6.70
Tomas Padilla NB 6.69
Rudy Carpenter BOI 6.65
Tom Burnett MILW 6.64
Ruben Barrios SYRA 6.64
Brad O'Connor KC 6.63
Vladimir Henriquez NASH 6.61
Fred O'Malley LV 6.61
Douglas Valentin BOI 6.59
Nate Gagnon CHAR 6.57
John Hasegawa SYRA 6.53
Adrian Hendricksen VANC 6.52
Joe Dipoto TREN 6.52
Wilt Swisher FLO 6.47
John Yamamoto SYRA 6.46
Pedro Ortiz PAW 6.43
Timothy Denham CIN 6.41
Alfonso Piedra KC 6.39
Jimmie Russell VANC 6.38
Lewis Gilkey PAW 6.36
Cam Ford LA 6.34
Julio Javier CIN 6.31
Nicky Cooke CHY 6.31
Yovani Crespo IND 6.28
Bob Tucker CHAR 6.26
Juan Carrasquel PHIL 6.24
Daniel Moylan TREN 6.24
Jorge Lunar KC 6.23
Marcus Martin CHY 6.23
Orlando Navarre DUR 6.22
Willie Jepsen KC 6.21
Angel Cruz SF 6.20
Farmer Ferguson CHAR 6.18
Sam Benoit CHAR 6.17
Omar Gutierrez NASH 6.12
Alfredo Payton SJ 6.12
Robinzon Beltran LV 6.12
Bill Williams Jr. CHI 6.12
Robert Brown SD 6.11
Madison Clayton TREN 6.11
Tris Fitzgerald NB 6.10
Joe Whitman JACK 6.09
Edwin Balester NASH 6.04
Juan Aramboles IND 6.04
Lyle Nichting KC 6.03
Vicente Rodriguez LR 6.01
Takahiro Hasegawa JV 5.99
Alejandro Valenzuela JACK 5.98
Alfredo Ozuna BOI 5.97


Top 75 pitchers (SP and RP together)
Orlando Fernandez IND 3380
Derrick Dawkins BALT 3364
Al Troncoso CHAR 3343
Santos Eovaldi KC 3324
Yamil Duran CHAR 3305
Jack Harding PAW 3277
Frank Hong PHIL 3275
Jeremi Wilkerson JV 3275
Darren James BOI 3247
Vern Stone LV 3242
Jack Parrish DUR 3241
Benji Ramirez IND 3232
Domingo Hernandez JACK 3229
Rick Branson JV 3229
Lew Ellis SYRA 3213
Benj Trammell CHY 3213
Louis Wilson SYRA 3209
Trever Springer NASH 3199
Mark Martin BALT 3198
Vicente Prieto CHI 3183
J.R. Blackley PAW 3180
Jair Gonzalez IND 3172
Edgardo Diaz SJ 3171
Phil Chang HON 3167
Walt Hairston TREN 3165
Jesus Gutierrez LA 3163
Jason Gruber PHIL 3157
Corban Chiasson NASH 3156
Ezdra DeRojas LV 3146
Esteban Borges IND 3145
Jason Haywood KC 3142
Ugueth Rodriguez SJ 3141
Damaso Sojo PAW 3125
Irv Porter BALT 3123
Tony Escobar LV 3110
Mariano Delgado IND 3094
Robinzon Andino StL 3091
Nigel Keats HON 3071
Ivan Amezaga PAW 3065
Nelson Jordan VANC 3065
Lou Donald BOI 3064
Jose Palacios JV 3052
Kurt Marte DUR 3051
Fausto Fernandez CHAR 3051
Jorge Seanez SYRA 3048
Joel Marte HON 3047
Wally Jones IND 3038
Timothy Rossy NASH 3033
Joe Johnson BALT 3030
Dan LaRocca BOI 3026
Diory Diaz LA 3024
Stan Hansen StL 3023
Blake Maxwell SD 3014
Juan Veras KC 3004
Sammy Morales TREN 2998
Sean Kennedy LV 2993
Enrique Bolivar PHIL 2975
Bobby Kennedy LV 2975
Asdrubal Pineda SJ 2974
Norberto Lecuona KC 2967
Rich Sinclair DUR 2963
Bud Waner CHY 2961
Quentin Weaver PAW 2958
Oswaldo Vizquel CIN 2955
Fritz Robertson VANC 2953
Alex Pimentel IND 2942
Ned Shields LV 2942
Domingo Palmeiro StL 2942
William Bunning JACK 2937
Zeus Quinn HON 2935
Vern Buckley NB 2935
Carl Meyer CIN 2932
John Reed StL 2930
William Mather KC 2929
Dustin McGee NASH 2928



Opening Day Power Rankings

1 Indianapolis If you win 3 in a row and 4 out of the last 5 you get the # 1 ranking no matter what. I mean who does that? Their roster ranked 3rd anyway so they are great!

2 Kansas City No matter how I slice and dice the numbers Dakar’s squad is the best by a country mile. SP Santos Eovaldi & RF P.T. Feliz are among the best players at their position.

3 Las Vegas Having recently made 2 WS it should be no surprise that Mongoose’s quad is Rikki Tikki Terrific. Their pitching is tremendous (#1 overall).

4. Pawtucket With the second best pitching overall and 2 straight seasons in a row with 10 plus win improvement the Griffins make Peter, Chris, and Stewie proud.

5 Cincinnati JBugg has worked hard this off-season to get this team playoff ready. He seems to have done enough, though I expect him to continue to improve his team.

6. Jacksonville The pitching was already top 5 and their recent trade allowed them substitute their two worst starter with their 2nd and 3rd best. Super young.

7. Cheyenne With support from Dan Snyder the ******* *****’s have a fabulous offense that that should easily be enough to power them to the playoffs.

8. Boise Boise and Cheyenne projected to have the same overall run differential. Boise’s pitching is a little better.

9. Charlotte A nice balanced team that easily could over perform. There is no reason to doubt that they will win their third straight division title.

10. Nashville With the 5th best pitching and weak division, the BootLegegger should easily make the playoffs, though their trend is worrisome. This owner liked their off-season.

11 Honolulu Last year’s AL representative in the WS looks to have a tough journey to take his team back to the promised land. Not a bad team, just not WS level.

12 Trenton Another projected playoff team, their elite offense will have to carry their pitching.

13 San Juan I’ve run the numbers in two ways. In one they made the playoffs, in the other they didn’t. The Padres would seem to be a candidate for an in-season trade.

14 Syracuse I don’t have them in the playoffs, but Trenton is only two spots up and very catchable. Sitting there with 16 mil in cap room watch out for jcairns.

15 St. Louis The Blues have the hitting to make a run, but will need to find some pitching.

16 Richmond Steelforge’s history says that they are better than what I have them ranked. Decent at everything, amazing at nothing.

17 San Francisco That I have them projected as a playoff team is more the product of a bad division than a comment of the robustness of their talent.

18 Vancouver Vancouver is the first team I have every run to project a 0 run differential. They should be able to hit, but could use another star pitcher.

19 Jackson Remember when I said they have a deep farm system? Let’s focus on that. They are not bad, but they are not making the playoffs either.

20 Philadelphia With the 2nd worst farm system wholck has some work to do. They won 100 games 6 times in a row, but now they are just expensive.

21 Florida And they lost LBJ. Not a good time to be in Florida right now. At least they have the Dolphins?

22 Los Angeles After years in below 60 win land Los Angeles is improving.

23 Durham I’ve really enjoyed playing against bux. He’s a good owner, but I’ll be honest, I do not see a 3rd straight playoff appearance as likely.

24 New Britain The rebuild is well on its way. With the first pick there are signs of life in dbird’s squad.

25 Baltimore Their pitching is playoff level. Their offense is only better than Little Rock’s. They have studs on the way so that will help.

26 Milwaukee Milwaukee is going to score a lot of runs. It will not be enough.

27 New Orleans Blanch13 knew wanted he wanted to be this season and looks forward to the payoff of being a top 10 team very, very soon.

28 San Diego They are not good, but it’s a well-balanced not good.

29 Chicago From the outside it looks like cretins is building a future winner. There is some pitching there, but the offense leaves a lot to be desired.

30 Santa Cruz It took Colton a little bit to figure out who they are, but he now seems to be well on his way collecting talent like Herzog and Belte to go with the Big, Bad Wolf.

31 Helena Helena is going to give a lot of runs this year. With nothing in the system, hotdog has a lot of work to do.

32 Little Rock Little Rock actually has pretty decent pitching. That they are ranked dead last shows how bad their offense is

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Future Power Rankings

Hobbs Headlines has a new staff writer! Thanks to topoftheworl for helping out as our new Power Rankings correspondent. He'll be posting power ranking a few times throughout the season. His first offering is something a bit different, the 'Future Power Rankings...'

Each team was graded on all the players who are in their system, but only players who are 25 or younger were evaluated. Each of these young players were then ordered by overall rating, relative to others at that player's primary listed position. Players were then ranked as Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 or Tier 4... and then the whole team scored. Tier 1 players were weighted significantly higher than Tier 4 players. Remember, this is only players 25 or younger.

Thanks again topoftheworl!


1- Jacksonville- Future Power Rankings Score- 17; Total number of young players evaluated- 19
Jacksonville See You Now headline young players are 2B Jamey Brewington, SP’s Rick Branson, Dillon Mays, and Don Bagley, as well as recently acquired Woody Reagan. The Now’s lead the ranking due more to the depth of prospects instead of the headliners. No team has more Tier 3 young players and only one team had more Tier 2 young players.

2- Kansas City- Score- 14.2; Young Players- 18
Ace Santos Eovaldi will win multiple Cy Youngs and P.T. Feliz is only 23 and has one of the best bats in Hobbs. Kansas City is loaded at the top and at the bottom. Feliz is a Tier 1 player and they have the second most Tier 4 players with 9.

3- Jackson- Score- 13.1; Young Players- 21
Jackson is more deep than spectacular. They have an amazing 12 Tier 4 players (no one else has more than 9) and another 8 Tier 3 players (4th overall).

4- Chicago- Score- 12.8; Young Players- 18
Lead by dynamic CF Harry Johnson, SP Corey Booker and Kazuhiro Lee; Chicago is similar to Jacksonville in that they have a number of solid ML’ers in their system and in the ML, but lack the top line player. They have 10 Tier 3 young players, which is the second most.

5- San Francisco- Score- 12.7; Young Players- 18
Angel Cruz brings power and speed to 2B and Roger Harvey is a Tier 1 closer that headline the league's 5th best system.

6- Baltimore- Score- 11.9; Young Players- 12
Baltimore is the most top heavy organization in the rankings. They have 4 Tier 2 prospects which is the most in the league.

7- Richmond- Score- 11.7; Young Players- 14

8- Milwaukee- Score- 11.5; Young Players- 14

8- Pawtucket- Score- 11.5; Young Players- 14

10- Las Vegas- Score- 10.3; Young Players- 8
Their system is thin, but boy, it is good at the top. They were the only team to have multiple Tier 1 young players (Jumbo Sanchez, Cristobal Morales and Jin-Chi Itou). There are 24 other teams (including my own, Jacksonville) which don't have a single Tier 1 young player.

11- New Britain- Score- 10.1; Young Players- 15

12- Honolulu- Score- 8.7; Young Players 10

13- Florida- Score- 8.3; Young Players- 12

14- New Orleans-Score- 8.2; Young Players- 12

15- Durham- Score- 8.2; Young Players- 14

16- Cheyenne- Score- 7.8; Young Players- 8

17- Trenton- Score- 7.6; Young Players- 9

17- Vancouver- Score- 7.6; Young Players- 9

19- Charlotte- Score 7.4; Young Players- 8

19- Santa Cruz- Score- 7.4; Young Players- 8

21- San Juan- Score- 7.4; Young Players- 13

22- Cincinnati- Score- 6.8; Young Players- 8

23- Los Angeles- Score- 6.2; Young Players 8

24- Little Rock- Score- 5.4; Young Players- 7

25- St. Louis- Score- 4.8; Young Players- 9

26- San Diego- Score- 4.6; Young Players- 6

27- Syracuse- Score- 4.5; Young Players- 8

28- Indianapolis- Score- 4.4; Young Players- 6

29- Boise- Score- 4.2; Young Players- 7

30- Nashville- Score- 3.5;  Young Players- 7

31- Philadelphia- Score- 3.2; Young Players- 6

32- Helena- Score- 0.9; Young Players- 3
Poor hotdog. He has only been there one season, so I assume the cupboard was left bare before he arrived.